Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft 10/2/15

This time of year, it's anybody's guess who's going to play until the lineups are live. To that end, I'll do my best to put out some guys who will be good plays (if they play), but I'll never be able to account for the potential last minute lineup changes that will come across.

If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. We'll have a projection in there for any guy you might want to play, and you can make adjustments up to the last minute. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft, and feel free to use it for NFL and NBA season as well!

Note: Just pretend that every player has a "if he plays" tag after his name for this article. It's just impossible to know who will rest, and why. Good luck!

Pitchers

Chris Sale - FD 12000 DK 11700 StarsDraft
Opponent- Det (Simon) R Park- @Cws
Dallas Keuchel - FD 11200 DK 11300 StarsDraft
Opponent- Ari (de la Rosa) R Park- @Ari
With a fair amount of big names going on Friday, there are a lot of potential directions to go. Jake Arrieta has been amazing, but he's freaking expensive right now, and it's unlikely the Cubs will let him go deep given their locking in the playoffs. And really, when you zoom out on the season, Sale has been the better fantasy pitcher when it comes to things actually in his control. He's got the league's best K/9, the 2nd best xFIP (behind Kershaw), and is generally just insanely good by any metric. While Detroit has crushed lefties this season, there's talk that Cabrera might be shut down - which will change a lot of that. As for Keuchel, our system actually isn't a huge fan, but he's arguably the safer play here considering the fact that Houston's season on the line, and he's been pretty fantastic. Arizona has been pretty decent against left handed pitching in their own right, so it's far from a sure thing - but as far as top dollar cash game plays today, these are the guys I'm looking at.

Gio Gonzalez - FD 9300 DK 8200 StarsDraft
Opponent- NYM (Syndergaard) r Park- @NYM
If the Mets are going to continue to trot out the B team, Gio makes for a pretty interesting play here. With 20+ FanDuel fantasy points in his last 5 starts, and you're not going to find a lot of upside like this on these relatively low prices this late in the season for a couple of reasons. First of all, a lot of the best pitchers are on good teams, and they aren't going to pitch deep into games right now unless they are still fighting for a playoff spot. Gio's still nearly a strikeout per inning guy with a better than league average xFIP, and that should be enough to get it done against the Mets' back-ups. If they start the actual good hitters maybe I'll reconsider, but this is a good tournament play from where I'm sitting.

The rest of the guys are pretty terrible, but some of them have upside, at least. Rubby de la Rosa comes to mind, even though it's obviously a long shot's long shot. Another one I kind of like is Luis Severino, even though he's young and raw. Baltimore strikes out a ton, and the Yankees still have to battle.

 

Catchers

Yasmani Grandal - FD 3100 DK 2900 StarsDraft 4100
Opponent- SD (Kelly) R Park- @Lad
It's dicey playing anyone who's locked into the playoffs this time of year, but I really like this play. If Grandal's a go, he's a go for me as well. Grandal's a 26 year old catcher with a .772 OPS against right handed pitching for his career, and has 15 homers in 357 plate appearances against righties this season. He's also got a fantastic 15% BB rate, making him a very high floor play as well. Casey Kelly had a 4.26 FIP in AA this year, and didn't exactly impress in his first start in the bigs this season either. I like Grandal everywhere (again, if he plays).

Salvador Perez - FD 2200 DK 3300 StarsDraft 4800
Opponent- Min (Santana) R Park- @Min
Perez has 16 homers and a .762 OPS in 357 plate appearances against right handed pitching this year, and while Santana is on a nice little streak, his season numbers are still pretty darned bad - his 4.36 xFIP is among the very worst.

Miguel Montero - FD 2400 DK 3600 StarsDraft 4300
Opponent- Mil (Pena) R Park- @Mil
A high upside play (if he plays, etc). Montero's had his highest ISO since 2012 (.165), and has had an OPS .132 points better against right handed pitching during his career. Ariel Pena is a high upside talent, but he's probably a true talent 4.5-5 BB/9 guy in the majors, which just isn't going to land you in good company. Love Montero here.

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First base

Albert Pujols - FD 3000 DK 4500 StarsDraft 5200
Opponent- Tex (Perez) L Park- @Tex
Here's a team you can count on playing it's big guns. I wrote this last night when Pujols played a similar lefty, and I'll stand by it tonight:

I love Pujols in the late slate against the left handed Derek Holland. Pujols has a ridiculous .179 BABIP against lefties this season (down from his .297 established career levels), and if it weren't for that, he'd be having a banner year. He has 9 homers in 157 plate appearances against southpaws, and playing in the warm Texas air should increase his odds for a long-ball. I love him in any format.

As of this writing he's doubled in his first plate appearance against Holland, and Martin Perez is a significantly worse pitcher than Holland. I have to say, for double-ups, this seems like the lock of all lock of a play, considering the unknown playing time for the other guys.

Adrian Gonzalez - FD 3200 DK 3600 StarsDraft 4800
Opponent- SD (Kelly) R Park- @Lad
Gonzalez, like Grandal, seems to still be going out and getting his licks. If he's going out there again against Casey Kelly, he could be a very strong play. With 24 homers and an .860 OPS against right handed pitching in 458 plate appearances this season, Gonzalez could certainly put together a nice performance against the not-quite-there-yet Kelly.

Chris Carter - FD 3100 DK 3700 StarsDraft 4400
Opponent- Ari (de la Rosa) R Park- @Ari
Fairly off-board, but Carter's been basically identical against right and left handed pitching this season, and his .240 ISO against righties is simply elite. He also bats under .200, and strikes out better than 30% of the time. Strictly a tournament play, but a decent spot nonetheless considering that he, like Pujols, will definitely get his playing time.

 

Second base

Brian Dozier - FD 2900 DK 4300 StarsDraft 4700
Opponent- KC (Young) R Park- @Min
Trying to scout some playing time opportunities for you here. With the Twins still not mathematically eliminated (as of this writing) from a wild card spot, they'll be playing their good players, and Dozier certainly qualifies. I wrote him up last night as well, and the story remains the same. He's got 21 homers against right handed pitching this season, and leads the league at his position in HR, R, and RBI. Chris Young, meanwhile, has some unfathomable stats working for him this year. His 5.41 xFIP is about the worst I've ever seen in a 100+ IP sample size, and his 22% ground-ball rate is definitely the lowest I've ever seen. He's basically a really tall home-run derby pitcher at this point, and I don't see why Dozier shouldn't be able to take advantage.

Jose Altuve - FD 3300 DK 5400 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- Ari (de la Rosa) R Park- @Ari
More opportunity stuff, here. Altuve is the safest play on the board in spite of his big platoon split that favors situations when he's facing lefties. Altuve put the ball in play in a remarkable 89% of his plate appearances against right handed pitching this season, and his lightning fast wrists have yielded a career .330 BABIP. He also bats first for a good hitting team, generating a huge 4.5 plate appearances per start this year. Great cash game play.

Robinson Cano - FD 3300 DK 4500 StarsDraft 5300
Opponent- Oak (Brooks) R Park- @Sea
Too little, too late for the Mariners, but Cano's been a .900+ OPS guy since the beginning of July, making him easily the best offensive second baseman in the majors over that stretch. Today he'll face Aaron Brooks, who was arguably a better NFL and NBA player before giving a shot at this pitching thing. He's just a late season innings eater, and can't stand up to a hitter of Cano's caliber.

 

Shortstop

Erick Aybar - FD 2300 DK 3300 StarsDraft 4200
Opponent- Tex (Perez) L Park- @Tex
This seems like the easiest cash game play of the year. Aybar will likely be leading off or batting 5th, and again, the Angels are still fighting for their lives. He's not a spectacular hitter by any means, but when you can get the assured opportunity against a pretty bad pitcher, you probably have to take it.

Brad Miller - FD 2300 DK 3300 StarsDraft 3700
Opponent- Oak (Brooks) R Park- @Sea
With 10 homers, 12 steals, and a .790 OPS in 370 plate appearances against right handed pitching this season, Miller's got more than passable upside for a terrible offensive position. Miller's playing time is pretty spotty, but there's no indication he won't play against Aaron Brooks, making him a fine play for big tourneys. Aaron Brooks, for his part, has allowed 39 earned runs in 48 innings pitched this year, and while some of that's bad luck - yowza.

The "if they play" category: Brandon Crawford looks great against the legit awful Kyle Kendrick. If he were going, he'd be a play comparable to Aybar in safety, and having significantly more upside than Brad Miller.

Third base

Evan Longoria - FD 3200 DK 3700 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- Tor (Buehrle) L Park- @TB
We've been writing him up all season when he's faced left handed pitching, and he's just gone out and dominated the entire time. Longoria's up to an unbelievable .972 OPS against left handed pitching at this point, and before you get spooked by his home park, his home and road splits against left handers are nearly identical. Buehrle's now outperformed his xFIP for 3276 major league innings, so it might not make sense to cite that, but seriously - his 4.16 K/9 .56 K/9 lower than the next lowest guy in the entire majors. I love Longoria everywhere.

Todd Frazier - FD 2500 DK 4000 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- Pit (Liriano) L Park- @Pit
Just an upside play, but Frazier has been downright amazing against LHP this season. He's homered in 9% of his plate appearances against southpaws, and his .921 OPS is more than respectable on these prices. Liriano is great, but he won't get his full run here, and whoever comes in after could be easy pickings.

If the Yankees still need to win, A-Rod has basically been Longoria's equal against left handed pitching this season, and he's got Wei-Yin Chen.

 

Outfield

Mike Trout - FD 5100 DK 5500 StarsDraft 5900
Opponent- Tex (Perez) L Park- @Tex
He's just going to have to top this list against a bad lefty in a great hitter's park in a must-win for his team. Best high priced option of the day, and it's not even close.

George Springer - FD 3200 DK 4600 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Ari (de la Rosa) R Park- @Ari
Springer is undoubtedly better against left handed pitching, but he can definitely dish abuse to any opposing pitcher, and represents a great upside play with his team's season likewise on the line. If he had a full season of at-bats, Springer would be a 20+/20+ guy, and he'll be in a nice hitter's park against a below league average pitcher as well.

Kyle Schwarber - FD 3500 DK 4400 StarsDraft 4600
Opponent- Mil (Pena) R Park- @Mil
Dexter Fowler - FD 2800 DK 4200 StarsDraft 4500
Opponent- Mil (Pena) R Park- @Mil
Schwarber has hit home runs in 7% of his plate appearances against right handed pitching, and has a .962 OPS against northpaws this season. Fowler is the steady, top of the order guy with 20/20 skills in his own right. Love Fowler for 50/50s, and Schwarber for big tourneys against Ariel Pena.

The Dodgers' lefties: Ethier and Crawford - both are heavy platoon split guys who should be able to hit Casey Kelly.

Adam Jones - FD 2400 DK 4500 StarsDraft 5200
Opponent- NYY (Severino) R Park- @Bal
He's just too cheap for what he can do. Jones has run pretty bad this season in terms of his BABIP - he's been .030 points off his career levels against right handed pitching. He's also got 27 homers, and has been a reverse platoon split guy (better against righties) for his entire career. Luis Severino is an interesting young talent, but you're getting a ton of talent built in for near minimum prices here. He might be done for the season, so as always, do your homework before putting him in.

A ton of great guys will be good plays, if they play - for those, grab a free three day trial of our projection system. A lot of these guys probably won't play, and some guys I left off assuming they'd rest will probably play. Tomorrow is a day to do your homework after teams have submitted their starting squads!
 

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