Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft 10/3/15

In case you didn't know this by now, it's basically impossible to know who will play, and for how much at this time during the season. But if you're crazy (or addicted) enough to keep playing - read on. You're among family, here.

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Pitchers

Early Slate
Rainout fun! I recommended Gio before last night's rain out, and he makes a good play in the first half of this double-header as well. Here you go!

Gio Gonzalez - FD 9300 DK 8200 StarsDraft
Opponent- NYM (Syndergaard) r Park- @NYM
If the Mets are going to continue to trot out the B team, Gio makes for a pretty interesting play here. With 20+ FanDuel fantasy points in his last 5 starts, and you're not going to find a lot of upside like this on these relatively low prices this late in the season for a couple of reasons. First of all, a lot of the best pitchers are on good teams, and they aren't going to pitch deep into games right now unless they are still fighting for a playoff spot. Gio's still nearly a strikeout per inning guy with a better than league average xFIP, and that should be enough to get it done against the Mets' back-ups. If they start the actual good hitters maybe I'll reconsider, but this is a good tournament play from where I'm sitting.

Late Slate
Max Scherzer
One never knows how many innings one is going to get out of a big name starter with nothing to play for at the end of the year, but that was true in Scherzer's last start as well, and he pitched 8 nearly no-hit, 10 strike-out innings against a good-hitting Red Sox team. Today he'll get the Mets, who have literally nothing to play for, and with Scherzer making a fringe Cy-Young case, he may very well get left out there for a decent amount of time. If you think the Mets are going to play their starters in the 2nd half of a double-header with the play-offs around the corner, I got a bridge to sell you. Scherz should be shooting fish in a barrel.

Shelby Miller - FD 6800 DK 7700 StarsDraft
Opponent- STL (Lackey) R Park- @Atl
Shelby Miller has 17 losses this year, leading the majors. He also has a 3.15 ERA. Not sure what to make of that. Really, Miller is probably a worse pitcher than his ERA suggests, but not as bad as his loss total. He's basically been a slightly below league average guy this season (a 4.05 xFIP) who's gotten some unlucky run support. So why recommend him here? To all appearances, it looks like the Cards are content to shut things down before the play-offs. If they're going to roll out "Tommy Pham," "Greg Garcia," and "Randal Grichuk" as their 1-2-3, it's kind of hard not to at least want to take a stab on Miller here. If the Cards play their starters you can throw this out the window, but this could be one of those sneaky upside plays that the casual player is sleeping on due to Miller's woes this season.

 

Catchers

Early Slate
Salvador Perez - FD 2200 DK 3300 StarsDraft 4800
Opponent- Min (Milone) L Park- @Min
This is an easy one, if Perez plays. Perez is a 25 year old catcher with a .769 OPS against left handed pitching for his career, and Milone is a well below average pitch-to-contact guy with a 4.21 xFIP and a tendency to leave balls up in the zone. Like the safety and the ceiling, here.

Also if he plays: Posey could destroy the left handed Chris Rusin, but again, the PT question marks.

Late Slate
Stephen Vogt - FD 2300 DK 3300 StarsDraft 4100
Opponent- Sea (Elias) L Park- @Sea
Vogt was back in the lineup on Friday, which is a good indication that the A's will keep giving him looks as the season draws to a close. In Vogt you're getting a guy with 17 homers and an .836 OPS in 380 plate appearances against right handed pitching this season. That's about as good a rate of production as you're going to find for a back-stop, especially one on dirt cheap prices. The young Elias has been his predictable below average self this season, and it could be a good opportunity for Vogt to tack on one more homer before dusting off the golf clubs.

The guys who "might play":

Miguel Montero - FD 2400 DK 3600 StarsDraft 4300
Opponent- Mil (Wagner) R Park- @Mil
Yasmani Grandal - FD 3000 DK 3300 StarsDraft 4100
Opponent- SD (Erlin) L Park- @Lad
Both of these guys are in good platoon spots against less than major league caliber pitchers, but both need to be viewed as necessarily questionable to play, given their team's "already locked into the playoffs" status. If both played, I'll take Montero against Tyler Wagner, who has gotten completely dominated in his 2 starts in the bigs this season - allowing 15 hits, 10 earned runs, and 5 walks, while striking out just 2 batters in the 7 innings he's been out there.

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First base

Early Slate
Albert Pujols - FD 3200 DK 4400 StarsDraft 5200
Opponent- Tex (Lewis) R Park- @Tex
One of the only teams with anything to play for left (as of this writing) Pujols will be out there against the underratedly bad Colby Lewis. Lewis has been left out there for 200 innings of 4.63 xFIP ball this year, a truly remarkable feat for a team that's going to make the playoffs. His 34% groundball rate has led to his eye-popping 1.31 HR/9 career totals, and it won't be any better for him in the warm Texas air. Pujols has been just fine against righties this season, and this is a great spot to play him in any format.

Late Slate
Paul Goldschmidt - FD 4400 DK 5500 StarsDraft 5600
Opponent- Hou (Mchugh) R Park- @Ari
If you're spending up at first base in the late slate, it's looking like you're going to want to play Goldschmidt. After a great 2014, Colin McHugh has pumpkinned out to being basically a league average guy, as his mid 7s K/9 and clean 4.00 xFIP would suggest. Even more interestingly, the young Astros right-hander has been hit dramatically harder by opposing righties this season - allowing a .334 aggregate wOBA against them in the 433 total batters he faced. Goldschmidt, as you probably know by now, has been a top 10 guy in terms of OPS against right handers all season, in spite of his own right handedness. Great play for any format.

Joe Mauer - FD 2500 DK 3400 StarsDraft 4600
Opponent- KC (Ventura) R Park- @Min
Mauer has been quietly good-ish in September, walking in 15% of his plate appearances, and putting up an OBP heavy .736 OPS. He's not a power threat, but getting that kind of production from a cheap play in the number 2 spot is plenty for what you're paying. It's not a high ceiling play whatsoever, but taking him against the erratic Yordano Ventura seems like a nice high floor cash game play.

The "if they play" group:
Anthony Rizzo in a good platoon spot againts the aforementioned sacrificial lamb Tyler Wagner.

 

Second base

Early Slate
Brian Dozier - FD 2800 DK 4400 StarsDraft 4700
Opponent- KC (Ventura) R Park- @Min
Wrote him up yesterday, and as of now, nothing has changed. Here's what I wrote:

Trying to scout some playing time opportunities for you here. With the Twins still not mathematically eliminated (as of this writing) from a wild card spot, they'll be playing their good players, and Dozier certainly qualifies. I wrote him up last night as well, and the story remains the same. He's got 21 homers against right handed pitching this season, and leads the league at his position in HR, R, and RBI. Chris Young, meanwhile, has some unfathomable stats working for him this year. His 5.41 xFIP is about the worst I've ever seen in a 100+ IP sample size, and his 22% ground-ball rate is definitely the lowest I've ever seen. He's basically a really tall home-run derby pitcher at this point, and I don't see why Dozier shouldn't be able to take advantage.

Late Slate
Jason Kipnis - FD 3000 DK 4800 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- Bos (Breslow) L Park- @Cle
Kipnis has a day off on Friday, but assuming he's not shut down for the year, he looks like a pretty high floor play against Craig Breslow. While it's true that the Kipper is better against right handed pitching, he truly excels against terrible pitching, and Breslow is precisely that. In spite of having the advantage of being a reliever the last two seasons, Breslow has been spectacularly bad, putting up a 5.08 xFIP in 113 innings pitched during that time. Even better, he's allowed an amazing .351 wOBA to lefties this season, throwing normal platoon considerations out the window.

Jose Altuve - FD 3300 DK 4700 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- Ari (Hellickson) R Park- @Ari
Another retread from last night who's in nearly an identical situation - here's what I wrote then:

More opportunity stuff, here. Altuve is the safest play on the board in spite of his big platoon split that favors situations when he's facing lefties. Altuve put the ball in play in a remarkable 89% of his plate appearances against right handed pitching this season, and his lightning fast wrists have yielded a career .330 BABIP. He also bats first for a good hitting team, generating a huge 4.5 plate appearances per start this year. Great cash game play.

Well, he'll have an even better match-up with Hellickson today, who has decidedly worse stuff than de la Rosa, and who frankly has never been good (as his career 4.35 xFIP will attest).

 

Shortstop

Early Slate
Erick Aybar - FD 2300 DK 3200 StarsDraft 4200
Opponent- Tex (Lewis) R Park- @Tex
I gave you Aybar as the clear play yesterday, and he's done more than he needed to - going 2/3 with a steal and a run as of this writing, and doing pretty much what we figured - just getting tons of opportunity atop a good hitting Angels' lineup. I don't know why you'd consider anyone else given his sure-thing opportunity and potential counting stat upside at a position basically devoid of top level talent at this point in the season.

Late Slate
Carlos Correa - FD 3400 DK 5000 StarsDraft 4600
Opponent- Ari (Hellickson) R Park- @Ari
I'm doing something I almost never do, here. And something I almost always regret. I'm going against our projection system's recommendations. I think it just is having a hard time knowing what to do with the generally incomparable Carlos Correa. The newly minted 21 year old has just been a revelation this season, and while he's better against lefties, he has what looks like a downright sustainable .817 OPS against right handed pitching. He's also got 12 homers and 9 steals in 280 plate appearances vs. righties this season - good for a 25/20ish full season prorated total. In other words, it's completely top tier production at the position, and in this case, for less than the top tier prices (at least on FanDuel). In a game that should matter for the 'Stros, I think he could put a hurting on Hellickson.

Jordy Mercer - FD 2300 DK 2700 StarsDraft 3800
Opponent- Cin (Finnegan) L Park- @Pit
That smell that's making you wrinkle up your nose is the bottom of the barrel, my friends. Mercer is generally an awful player, but he is moderately useful for daily fantasy baseball purposes when facing a lefty. You may be surprised to know this, but he's actually an .870 OPS guy against lefties for his career, even if he's a more modest .756 OPS guy this season. Brandon Finnegan has some relatively interesting long term prospects, but the 22 year old just got done walking 5 guys per 9 in AAA this year, and has had similar struggles at the major league level. Not an upside play in all likelihood, but at least he's likely to play!

If you want to go by our system, Marcus Semien is a better upside play than Correa. Gulp.

Third base

Early Slate
Adrian Beltre - FD 3900 DK 4700 StarsDraft 5400
Opponent- LAA (Santiago) L Park- @Tex
You're paying out the rear for Beltre here, but he's a legit lefty-killer, and Santiago will be battling for the unhappy distinction of worst xFIP in the majors among qualified pitchers in this one (he's .01 behind Estrada, if you're keeping score). Even better, Santiago's 30% ground ball rate is the very lowest in the majors, and his 1.43 HR/9 is the 6th highest. Big upside play here, if Beltre is out there.

Trevor Plouffe - FD 2900 DK 3800 StarsDraft 4200
Opponent- KC (Ventura) R Park- @Min
Same logic as with Dozier - Plouffe is one of the only legitimate 3B talents that should be assured playing time (unless the Twins are eliminated by game time tomorrow).

Late Slate
Todd Frazier - FD 2400 DK 3700 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- Pit (Burnett) R Park- @Pit
A daily boom or bust play, but this is a heck of a lot of boom for $2,500 on FanDuel. Frazier is much better against left handers, but he's still hit 21 homers and swiped 12 bags against right handers in 507 plate appearances this season. Burnett is a good pitcher, but if Liriano's usage from Friday is any indication, we'll probably get 5 innings of him and then a poo-poo platter of garbage guys afterward. I love Frazier as an upside play here.

And I'm not even sure who the cash game play is - I love Aramis Ramirez against the lousy lefty Brandon Finnegan, but it's no sure thing that he'll be out there. Likewise with Justin Turner. You're going to have to sweat this one down to line-up lock.

 

Outfield

Early Slate
OF:
Mike Trout - FD 4900 DK 5300 StarsDraft 5900
Opponent- Tex (Lewis) R Park- @Tex
Back in little league my travel team played in a tournament against other local towns. We were 11 years old and innocent. That is until we faced Gino from Carteret. He had a mustache and in his first at bat crushed a bomb that's still going today. He did the same in his second at bat. In his third at bat our coaches begged Randy (one of our pitchers) to just throw the ball in the dirt. Randy didn't and Gino hit another home run. This is all to say, Mike Trout is Gino, but in the majors.

Gerardo Parra - FD 2200 DK 3100 StarsDraft 3800
Opponent- NYY (Nova) R Park- @Bal
The Erick Aybar of the outfield. Parra has 11 homers and 11 steals and a .796 OPS against right handers in 462 plate appearances this year, and more importantly, he'll likely bat 2nd against Ivan Nova. Just a high floor, reasonable upside guy that you can get on the uber-cheap.

Whichever of the Royals' outfielders plays against Tommy Milone. There are legit no good outfield plays early, but I'll take any of those guys at their current prices against the Tommy-Gun.

Late Slate
Andrew McCutchen - FD 3800 DK 4800 StarsDraft 5400
Opponent- Cin (Finnegan) L Park- @Pit
It seems like there is almost unlimited OF value today. While the ballpark doesn't do anyone favors in the power department, McCutchen's been one of the very best for his career against lefties. The FanDuel price has really come down late in the season and you should be playing him in cash games whenever possible considering his offensive profile.

Jay Bruce - FD 2800 DK 3200 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- Pit (Burnett) R Park- @Pit
My man has run something terrible in the second half when it comes to the BABIP. Not exactly fleet of foot to begin with, Bruce hasn't had anything fall into play since the All-Star Break. He's also seen a dip in the walk rate which could be him pressing because he hates his rotten bad luck. While there isn't a ton of time to regress, he's still coming very cheap today and makes a fine enough play assuming he's hitting in the top five in the lineup.

Nelson Cruz - FD 3700 DK 4900 StarsDraft 5100
Opponent- Oak (Nolin) L Park- @Sea
There are only a few written rules in MLB DFS. One is to check on rain before the game. The other is to always seriously consider Nelson Cruz when sh#$ lefties are on the mound. Sean Nolin is said lefty. Dude is striking out less than five batters per nine and walking more than four. He's awful, with an xFIP in the mid 5's. Nelson Cruz is one of the best lefty platoon hitters in all of baseball. This season alone he has a 204 wRC+ and 1.115 OPS. Those are sick numbers and even the ballpark doesn't take me off Cruz today.

Dexter Fowler - FD 2800 DK 4300 StarsDraft 4500
Opponent- Mil (Wagner) R Park- @Mil
I like Fowler against lefties better. That being said, I like everyone against Tyler Wagner who has seven major league innings of some of the worst pitching you'll ever see. Small sample size and all, but it isn't like dude crushed the minors in any real way. Fowler's power and speed profile give him a high floor in cash games and the lead off slot keeps the plate appearance expectation high.

George Springer - FD 3200 DK 4700 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Ari (Hellickson) R Park- @Ari
You know we are big Springer fans. Have pictures of him on our website in picks articles and everything. Though better against lefties, I'll take him against Hellickson in this spot because of the park. Chase Field is one of the best power parks in baseball and Hellickson doesn't have the swing and miss stuff to make me want to avoid the arm.
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