Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft 10/4/15

Well, it's finally here. The last day of the regular season. The last time you'll get to pick hitters playing against pitchers this bad. The last time you'll see David Buchanan in a box score, or Tommy Milone, or Christian Bergman. Excuse me - I'm tearing up a little bit.

Let's just get into it.

Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft.

A quick note: Listen - managers are doing all sorts of bizarre stuff on the final day of the season. The Padres are starting someone from their bullpen, for instance, and we don't know who yet. Our projection system isn't going to be able to account for this. But, you can probably just start every single Dodger against all the bums they are going to throw out there. I'll do my best to parse all of this, but let's start with the understanding that this day is going to be an absolute mess, and if you're playing today, you're probably doing so for fun as much as profit.

Actually, screw it. This article is just going to have a different format than usual. It almost has to - there's no sense in me writing up a bunch of guys that may or may not play. Instead, I'll break down the best match-ups that you can get by who I think will pitch in tomorrow night's games.

The Teams With Something to Play For

Far and away, this is the day to take good players from the very few teams with something remaining to play for. At least in your double-ups and 50/50s.

The Houston Astros
My favorite "team with something to play for" stack, and I don't think it's very close. The Astros will be up against by far the worst pitcher that a team with something to play for will be facing - Robbie Ray. Ray actually has a lot to be proud of this season. He went from being generally terrible in 2014 to simply below average in 2015. His 4.13 xFIP is largely a result of his total lack of command (as evidenced by his 3.50 BB/9), and he's some good HR/FB luck away from having an ERA to match his general lack of skills. Here are the prime guys to target:

Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer, Evan Gattis, and Chris Carter (as an upside only play) are all fantastic plays today.

The Texas Rangers
In an absolute shit-show - can I say shit-show? Whatevs, it's the final day of the season. I'll let what's left of my hair down a little bit. In an a stunning Saturday game, the Rangers and Angels combined to use an American league record 18 pitchers, and a 5 run ninth kept the Angels in the hunt for the wild-card, and the Rangers away from their division title.

Now, I'm writing this before the conclusion of the Astros/Diamondbacks game, but if the Astros win, the Rangers will need to play their starters on Sunday in order to avoid being involved in the one game wild-card. Side-note, how much more fun is this wild-card than the old one? So much more fun.

So, which Rangers can you play? Here's a list!

Richards is pretty tough, so you're really left with the reasonably priced left handed hitters, like Prince Fielder, Josh Hamilton, and Mitch Moreland. Our system likes Hamilton in particular, and it doesn't even know he homered twice yesterday.

The Los Angeles Angels
They'll have something to play for no matter what happens on Saturday night. The issue of course is that they'll be facing a really good pitcher in Cole Hamels. Hamels has been equally tough on right handers and left handers this season, so there's not a huge platoon advantage to be had here, but that's okay, because the useful hitters on the Angels are pretty much all right handed anyway.

Erick Aybar remains pretty reasonably priced, Mike Trout is one of the few guys I'd consider calling match-up proof (though he ain't), and Pujols remains in play as well. Overall, though, playing Angels doesn't feel fantastic. For cash-games, though? At least you can lock in talent and opportunity here.

 

The teams facing terrible pitchers

The Pittsburgh Pirates
On a day where there are a lot of terrible pitchers going, it's tough to pick the worst. I don't think Josh Smith is that (he's got a decent minor league track record), but boy has he been awful in the majors this year. 21 walks in 28 innings is a total embarrassment, and his lack of control could lead to some big innings for the Buccos. The Pirates played their starters on Saturday, and while that might not hold true on Sunday, stacking against Josh Smith might be a way to win a big tourney.

The Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays played their starters on Saturday, and they've got some right handers that could torture Matt Moore. I'd love any of Bautistia, Encarnacion, or Donaldson if they got the nod on Sunday against Matt Moore. If you haven't checked in with Matt Moore in a while, a lot has gone astray since he was listed as one of if not the top pitching prospect in all of baseball after 2011. The major change has been that he just hasn't been a good major league pitcher. Moore's got a career 4.10 BB/9, which would be the highest overall number among qualifying pitchers in the majors this season. The Blue Jays' righties could truly put up some numbers here.

The Detroit Tigers
The Tigers played a lot of their top guys on Saturday, and if they're going to play Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, and JD Martinez, they all become terrific plays against Frankie Montas. You can also throw in guys like Rajai Davis for safety.

The Seattle Mariners
Chris Bassitt is a run of the mill bad pitcher - a converted reliever with a 4.37 xFIP. Robinson Cano is a phenomenal play here. Brad Miller is a a high upside, very cheap play.

Special Offer

DraftPot has a $100K Guaranteed contest for NFL's Week 4. Sign up and deposit with the promo code "DFSR" to get 100% matching bonus up to $1000. Plus, first time depositors get a free entry to their $10K contest. Oh, and if you sign up through our link we'll throw in a free month of our NFL and MLB projections. That's value baby! Click the banner below.

Todd Frazier
Insanely great play against the left handed Happ. Breaking format here, but he's a lefty crusher (homers in 9% of his PA against left handers this season), and Happ is far from an ace.

The San Francisco Giants
Do you need the deets on Christian Bergman? He's a pitch-to-contact batting practice type, who has decent control, but no put-away stuff. The Giants have been giving some of their big guns rest, but we gave you Crawford yesterday as an "if he plays" guy, and he went ahead and homered. We obviously like him quite a bit here, but Angel Pagan is also a great high floor play if he's going to bat lead off again.

The St. Louis Cardinals
The Cards may not be playing their starters, but they're slated to have a very nice spot against Matthew Wisler and the Braves. Wisler has managed to pitch 100 innings in the majors with a 5.14 xFIP (which would be the runaway worse in the majors, if he had pitched enough innings to qualify). Any lefties that make the cut for the Cards should absolutely be in play - primarily Brandon Moss, and Jon Jay if he gets the start the way he was supposed to on Saturday.

The Miami Marlins
David Buchanan is one of the few pitchers in the majors who has managed to stay there in spite of having an xFIP (4.96) greater than his K/9 (4.90). He's also got an awful 3.71 BB/9 to go with it. The tricky bit about the Marlins is that they really don't have very good hitters. They do have a few shining gems here, though.

Christin Yelich is often a good bet against right handed pitching, and Dee Gordon has incredible steals and runs based upside. These are just upside plays, though.
 

Well, that about does her. Wraps her all up

It's been a great season, y'all. We'll be back for playoff series previews, but this will be the last of our regular season picks (duh?). We will still be writing daily fantasy NFL and college football picks each week, and we'll be writing daily picks for the NBA as well. Hope to see you there!

And, in case you were wondering, we'll definitely be updating the projection system throughout the MLB playoffs as well. Good luck out there, y'all!

And you're in luck! We're offering a copy of our free MLB and NFL eBooks while the seasons overlap - get a copy below!