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Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

10/06/2015
James Davis

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft - The Wild Card Round

The shortest of short slates, and all great pitchers. Gulp.

Here's the thing - on a slate this short, writing any picks at all is basically giving you access to our projection system. That won't be the case for all of the nights of the playoffs, but it's true tonight. We do offer access to our NFL and NBA projection systems as well, though, so you should go get a trial for those as well! Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft.

Note: You're going to see a lot of hitters who we are recommending against the same pitchers. Obviously, if you're trying to win a big tournament, you probably shouldn't play hitters against the same pitchers. You might need to take less orthodox guys in those cases. Still, though, these are the best value plays that we can come up with for tonight.

Pitchers

FanDuel
Gerrit Cole - FD 10000 DK 10600 StarsDraft
Opponent- CHC (Arrieta) R Park- @Pit
He's projected for the highest raw total in our system today, and he's the second cheapest guy. Cole struck out 17 batters in 13 innings in his last two starts against the Cubs, and it was no accident - the Cubs struck out at the highest rate in the majors against right handed pitching this season. Their 24% rate is historically bad, and this is a match-up you won't often get come playoff time. The Cubs obviously hvae a ton of upside here as well, but every team has offensive upside in the playoffs. Arrieta is obviously a beast on the mound for the Cubs, but these teams are equal enough that I don't think you can weigh Arrieta against Cole's chances any more than you can any other pitcher going tonight. On a night where financial flexibility will make a huge difference, I love Cole in any format on FanDuel.

DraftKings
Masahiro Tanaka - FD 9600 DK 9000 StarsDraft
Opponent- Hou (Keuchel) L Park- @Hou
You could make an argument for Tanaka on FanDuel as well, but I love just hedging him across the two sites. Cole on FD, Tanaka on DK. He hasn't been fantastic in the immediate past, but the guy has a 2.96 xFIP and nearly a 5:1 K:BB in his 290 major league innings. He's a monster. The Astros, for their part, are just behind the Cubs in terms of strike-out percentage against righties. They've whiffed at a 23.6% clip, making Tanaka a play with plenty of upside as well. Like the Cubs, the Astros can give a pitcher a bad day in a hurry, but I also wouldn't be shocked if Tanaka mowed them down en route to a win and a tournament birth.

 

Catchers

Evan Gattis - FD 3300 DK 3800 StarsDraft 4600
Opponent- NYY (Tanaka) R Park- @Nyy
So, by the day's very nature, you might need to play some guys who are facing the pitcher you selected. While Tanaka is a great pitcher, he might still be the worst on the board, as crazy as that sounds. Remember - we like him for price reasons, not because he's better in an absolute sense over the other big names going. Gattis is a classic upside play - he's got 20 homers and a .775 OPS in 392 plate appearances against right handed pitching this season... but a .291 OBP. You can't call him safe, but he's the guy at the position most likely to hit a homer (his 27 would lead the position, if he qualified), and that makes him the top play on the board tonight.

Good Cheap option: Miguel Montero, against the right handed Cole. Arguably safer than Gattis, with similar upside, and cheaper.

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First base

Anthony Rizzo - FD 4400 DK 4500 StarsDraft 5600
Opponent- Pit (Cole) R Park- @Pit
The playoffs make for strange bedfellows, indeed. Our system actually doesn't love Rizzo from a points per dollar basis tonight, but that's the thing - it really doesn't love ANY big money guys tonight as much as big guys we've recommended during the season. Still, among the top dollar guys, it likes Rizzo best. Rizzo's hit righties well this season, with 25 homers and a .902 OPS against righties in 502 plate appearances against them. In the last two games that Rizzo faced a Cole-led Pirates team, he struck out just once in 8 plate appearances. Small sample size and all, of course, but Rizzo has the fewest issues of any first base recommendation I can make tonight.

 

Second base

Jose Altuve - FD 3400 DK 5000 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- NYY (Tanaka) R Park- @Nyy
Not a conventional upside play, but Altuve does have 11 homers and 26 steals in 479 plate appearances against right handed pitching this season. What Altuve really is, though, is a cash game monster. He's put the ball in play (or walked) in 91.2% of his plate appearances against righties this season, and his max-effort swing makes for a solid .311 career BABIP vs. northpaws. Tanaka is great and all, again, but even he might not have the stuff to blow it by Altuve.

For cheaper upside: Neil Walker.

 

Shortstop

Addison Russell - FD 2700 DK 2900 StarsDraft 3500
Opponent- Pit (Cole) R Park- @Pit
Easily the hardest position to find a decent play for in the Wild Card slate. It's a small sample size, but Russell was actually better against right handed pitching this year by a significant margin. In 403 plate appearances, he actually had a very serviceable .765 OPS and 11 home runs. He doesn't get a ton of plate appearances due to batting last, but scores a fair amount of runs due to his "second time through the lineup lead-off man" role. On a tough day for shortstops, Russel might be the safest thing going unless you really want to spend up $4,000 for Correa.

Third base

Alex Rodriguez - FD 3100 DK 4200 StarsDraft 4700
Opponent- Hou (Keuchel) L Park- @Nyy
This is an easy one, for me. A-Rod was a play against left handed pitchers even on full slates of games, and on a 2 game slate like this, he'll be a play against even ace-level pitchers like Keuchel. Rodriguez has bull-dozed left handed pitching for his whole career, and has been great this year as well. With 10 homers and an a .926 OPS in 197 plate appearances against left handed pitching, he's been right there in the top tier. And at very affordable prices! Seems like a must play in all formats.

 

Outfield

Jacoby Ellsbury - FD 2600 DK 3700 StarsDraft 4900
Opponent- Hou (Keuchel) L Park- @Nyy
Brett Gardner - FD 2200 DK 4000 StarsDraft 5000
Opponent- Hou (Keuchel) L Park- @Nyy
Both Elssbury and Gardner are better against right handed pitching for their career, but both are certainly more toward the platoon neutral end of things than most. Ellsbury has been about .047 OPS points better against righties, and Gardner about .032. Now, they might each still struggle here. What really drives the ranking is the price. They're both very affordable, and they'll be batting at the top of the lineup, which should mean tremendous opportunity. On a tough day for hitters in general, I really like both of them.

Carlos Gomez - FD 3500 DK 3900 StarsDraft 4800
Opponent- NYY (Tanaka) R Park- @Nyy
Gomez is a lot like the above guys, in that he's been better against lefties for his career, but not by much (.024 OPS points in his case). Word is that he'll definitely be playing, and if he does, he presents the power/speed upside of many of the guys today at a slightly steeper price point.

If he plays: Rasmus makes a great option against Tanaka in a righty/lefty spot in Yankee Stadium.

The high priced guys: If you feel like spending up, our system can tolerate both McCutchen and George Springer today. And I'd get if you think that either of them is safer than Gomez, who's mostly listed here because he makes some interesting lineups happen with the slight savings.

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1 Visitor Comment

  1. U guys really got this one wrong haha

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