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featured Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

10/07/2015
Chris Durell

Daily Fantasy Nascar Picks
Bank of America 500


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Bank of America 500

Charlotte Motor Speedway - Concord, NC
Track Type/Length - 1.5 Mile Quad Oval Paved Intermediate Track
24° Banking in the Turns - 5° on the Front & Back Stretch

The first elimination race had all the excitement we were looking for going into Sunday. Kevin Harvick, needing a win to advance did just that by dominating Dover, leading 355 laps on his way to victory. Kyle Busch ran up front all day and finished in the 2nd place advancing him to the Contender Round as well. The best scenario to follow on Sunday came in the closing half of the race. Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jamie McMurray were neck and neck for the 12th position in the standings. Dale was told on the radio he needed to finish better than McMurray or Kyle Busch to advance. He passed McMurray late and held onto 3rd while McMurray finished 4th and just one point short of advancing to the next round. The biggest shocker of the day has to be Hendrick Motorsports driver Jimmie Johnson. He came into the race as the most successful driver here at Dover and the favorite to win. He sat in 5th in the standings entering the race with a 27 point buffer on the bubble spot. Unfortunately for the #48 team, an axle seal failure(approx $5 part) resulted in a 30 minute garage visit to repair the issue. He finished back in 41st place and will not advance to the Contender Round. Jamie McMurray, Paul Menard and Clint Bowyer were also eliminated at Dover on Sunday. The focus now will be on the next 3 races (Charlotte,Kansas,Talladega) in the Contender Round of the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

We are now down to 12 drivers in the Chase for the Sprint Cup and head to Charlotte Motor Speedway for the Bank of America 500 and Race #1 of the Contender Round. This will be the third race here in 2015(2nd points race) and close to the home shops of most of the teams. It will be like another home game for most drivers but don't expect the Chase participants to get comfortable with how much is on the line. Only 8 of the 12 remaining drivers will advance into the Eliminator Round after the next 3 races. Chase drivers and teams will be pushing hard to get the win and automatic bid into the next round before arriving at the elimination race at Talladega where anything and everything can happen. There are a lot of drivers who have nice track records here so I will be be concentrating my picks on drivers in good form and trending in the right direction.

Upper Tier Targets

Kevin Harvick
DraftKings - $11,400
Fantasy Feud - $280,000
Vegas Odds - 4.75/1
Chase Standings – Reset
Practice #1 - 1st
Practice #2 - 26th
Final Practice - 12th
Qualified - 11th

Once again it came down to crunch time and the "closer" Kevin Harvick delivered. Not only did he win at Dover last week to advance in a win or go home situation, he absolutely dominated the race. Now the points reset for round 2 and Harvick returns to a track in Charlotte that he has dominated recently. In the previous five races here he has two wins, three top 5's and finished all five races in the top 10 with a 3.8 average finish. He has more momentum than anyone in the field this week and will be worth the high price tag in GPP formats this week.

Brad Keselowski
DraftKings - $9,600
Fantasy Feud - $215,000
Vegas Odds - 11/1
Chase Standings – Reset
Practice #1 - 14th
Practice #2 - 6th
Final Practice - 6th
Qualified - 13th

His priced dropped $300 going into this week and sits as the 7th most expensive driver on DraftKings. He started the Chase with a top 10 finish at Chicago but followed it up with a 12th at New Hampshire and a 16th last weekend at Dover. He may be one of the lowest owned drivers in the top tier due to this recent form opening up a good spot to get him in your lineups. He has had a one win and three top 10 finishes in the previous five races at Charlotte. Look for the #2 team to get back on track this week and contend for the win. At this price he makes a nice play in any format.

Matt Kenseth
DraftKings - $10,300
Fantasy Feud - $245,000
Vegas Odds - 8/1
Chase Standings – Reset
Practice #1 - 2nd
Practice #2 - 22nd
Final Practice - 25th
Qualified - 1st

Over the first three races of the Chase, Kenseth has been the best and most consistent driver. He started the Chase with a 5th at Chicago followed by his win at New Hampshire and a 7th place finish at Dover. Kenseth has two career wins here at Charlotte but none have came in the previous five races. He hasn't been bad in that time though with three top 5's and a 8.8 average finish in those five most recent races. Look for the #20 team to keep rolling this weekend with at least another top 10 finish.

Also Consider - Denny Hamlin(DK-$9,500)

Middle Tier Targets

Carl Edwards
DraftKings - $9,300
Fantasy Feud - $200,000
Vegas Odds - 11/1
Chase Standings – Reset
Practice #1 - 19th
Practice #2 - 2nd
Final Practice - 8th
Qualified - 8th

He picked up his first career win at Charlotte at the Coca Cola 600 back in May but has always ran well here over the years. In the previous five races he has a win, two top 5's, four top 10's and a 6.8 average finish. He start the Chase with a 2nd and 5th and a 15th last week at Dover. Joe Gibbs Racing as a team has been consistent and fast over the past few months and don't expect any of that to change in round 2 of the Chase. Edwards makes a great play in any format at his current salary.

Kasey Kahne
DraftKings - $8,000
Fantasy Feud - $155,000
Vegas Odds - 26/1
Chase Standings – Not in Chase
Practice #1 - 5th
Practice #2 - 12th
Final Practice - 19th
Qualified - 20th

He has had a pretty disappointing year up to this point reflected by him missing the Chase playoffs. He is the one non Chase driver I am looking at in GPP formats this week that has a good chance at winning. He comes into the race with four career wins here and a 8.0 average finish over the previous five races at this track. He has posted back to back top 10 finishes making it the first time this year. He is finally racing like everyone expected when he joined Hendrick Motorsports. He should be fairly low owned and presents a ton of upside. Get him in your lineups.

Ryan Newman
DraftKings - $7,000
Fantasy Feud - $140,000
Vegas Odds - 101/1
Chase Standings – Reset
Practice #1 - 20th
Practice #2 - 3rd
Final Practice - 4th
Qualified - 10th

He is $1400 cheaper than any other driver remaining in the Chase and makes a great play this week in cash games. In his previous five races here at Charlotte he has four top 10's and a top 15 finish with a 8.4 average finish(3rd best in the field). He has been trending backwards since the start of the Chase(4th,10th,19th) but should get back on track here at Charlotte where he has enjoyed success in the past. My cash game strategy throughout the Chase so far has been roster mostly the Chase drivers and this window is coming to close shortly as the field gets smaller. Capitalize this week with Newman at this low price.

Low End Target

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
DraftKings - $6,200
Fantasy Feud - $105,000
Vegas Odds - 301/1
Chase Standings – Not in Chase
Practice #1 - 23rd
Practice #2 - 16th
Final Practice - 14th
Qualified - 25th

He came through nicely as a low end play last week with an 8th place finish. In fact he has now gone four straight races with finishes inside the top 20. In the previous five races here at Charlotte he has an average finish of 22.8. At his low salary he makes a great addition to a stars and scrubs lineup.

Also Consider - Aric Almirola & Casey Mears

Post Practice & Qualifying Update

Qualifying Top 10:
1. #20 Matt Kenseth
2. #18 Kyle Busch
3. #22 Joey Logano
4. #16 Greg Biffle
5. #11 Denny Hamlin
6. #41 Kurt Busch
7. #48 Jimmie Johnson
8. #19 Carl Edwards
9. #43 Aric Almirola
10. #31 Ryan Newman

Matt Kenseth won the Coors Lite Pole on Thursday afternoon. He was the first car on the track in the final round of qualifying and put down the fastest lap that held throughout the session. He couldn't seem to find the rhythm in the final two practices going 22nd and 25th fastest. The #20 has been good making changes during the race so expect them to find speed come Saturday night under the lights. Teammate Kyle Busch qualified on the front row beside Kenseth and went on to post the 10th and 1st fastest laps in the final practices. He also had the second fastest consecutive 10 lap average in 2nd practice. Kurt Busch qualified 6th Thursday and then went on to post 1st and 2nd fastest times in the final practices. He should have a fast car come Saturday night. Brad Keselowski should be in line for some bonus points as he starts 13th and posted the 5th and 3rd fastest times in final practices. To see all practice and qualifying results you can purchase my cheatsheet for only $5.


Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the Bank of America 500? Chris is selling a cheatsheet and lineups for DraftKings and FantasyFeud for $5. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership. Head over to our PayPal payment page, if that's more your bag.


Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.

 

image sources

  • 2048px-NASCAR_practice: By U.S. Air Force photo by Larry McTighe [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

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