Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft 10/10/15

Playoffs, baby! Lots of short slates to finish out the season, and this is one of the very shortest we'll see. Short slates mean slim pickings, and big mistakes. Don't be left out in the cold - let's get to the guys you want for Saturday's games!

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Pitchers

Picking between the Giants
And I don't mean the San Francisco Giants, of course. I mean trying to pick between Noah Syndergaard and Zack Greinke. Greinke is the better pitcher, is projected for a higher raw point total in our system tonight. The Mets were in the bottom third of the league in terms of wOBA against right handed pitching, and the Dodgers have been in the top third of the league. They both strike out at roughly the same rate, with the Dodgers striking out just a little bit more. It all points to Greinke, until you get to the price. On such a short slate, playing Greinke might really limit your options throughout the rest of your lineup. Then again, it will be tough to invest lots of money at a good multiplier across your hitters as well. I guess I'll give the nod to Greinke for cash games, figuring the Syndergaard might have greater upside in a big tournament.

And the lesser guys
Another close one! Jaime Garcia and Kyle Hendricks get similar results with a different approach. Garcia relies on good control and a positively elite ground-ball rate, and Hendricks trades a few of those ground-balls for strike-outs. They had very similar xFIPs - 3.25 for Hendricks, and 3.36 for Garcia. In a vacuum, this probably would make Hendricks the better play because strike-outs get you some extra points. But this ain't in a vacuum. The Cubs struck out a whopping 26.2% of the time against left handed pitching this season - the very highest number in the majors - and the Cardinals were a tougher than average match-up for right handed pitchers. Uneventfully, this makes both of them very similar in terms of raw points per dollar projections. Still, Hendricks hasn't pitched into the 7th inning since August 1st, leading me to believe that Garcia might wind up being the safer play here.

 

Catchers

Yadier Molina - FD 2200 DK 3000
Opponent- CHC (Hendricks) R Park- @Stl
Catcher ain't pretty today, my friends. When in doubt? Get out cheaply. Molina is no great shakes when it comes to hitting these days, but he did put the ball in play or take a walk in 89% of his plate appearances against right handers this season, and you're getting him at near the minimum price. He's also not too susceptible to getting pulled for defensive replacements. You're thrilled, aren't you? Better him than taking one of the other guys in a bad platoon situation against a tough pitcher. Moving on!

If he plays: Yasmani Grandal is moderately interesting, but as an upside play only given how he ended the season.

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First base

Adrian Gonzalez - FD 3000 DK 4500
Opponent- NYM (Syndergaard) r Park- @Lad
Another tricky position. Gonzalez was pretty bad in the second half of the year, but that's also made him pretty cheap. He finished the season with 25 homers and an .850 OPS in 464 plate appearances against right handed pitching, and still bats in the heart of the order for the solid hitting Dodgers. And really, your other options are a top-priced Rizzo in a lefty/lefty spot (very risky), Duda against Greinke, or a min-priced Reynolds. Gonzalez feels like the clear 50/50 play to me, here.

Also considered: Mark Reynolds, as an upside play.

 

Second base

Kolten Wong - FD 2200 DK 3200
Opponent- CHC (Hendricks) R Park- @Stl
A 52% start in cash games last night, Wong will be on the same level tonight for same reasons he was on Friday - he's cheap. That's really it. There's a little more to see here than that, I suppose. Wong is way better against right handed pitching - putting together a 2:1 K:BB ratio, a .772 OPS, 10 homers, and 7 steals in 462 plate appearances against right handed pitching this season. That's nice high-floor production from a terrible position, and given that Hendricks is arguably the weakest pitcher on the slate, it will be tough to do much better.

If he plays, Chase Utley against the right handed Syndergaard becomes my top play.

 

Shortstop

Jhonny Peralta - FD 2600 DK 3700
Opponent- CHC (Hendricks) R Park- @Stl
I'm just glad the Cardinals made the playoffs, because not writing up Jhonny Peralta might give me hives. He was basically platoon neutral this season (and actually a shade better against right handers), and bat 5th against the Cubs in last night's game. That's a lot of opportunity for a short-stop. Throw in his 17 homers (tied for 3rd in the majors at shortstop) and you've got some nice ceiling to go with a high-ish floor.

Third base

Kris Bryant - FD 4300 DK 4600
Opponent- Stl (Garcia) L Park- @Stl
A spot where you can spend up. Bryant's main struggle, of course, is striking out. He's struck out in nearly 36% of his plate appearances against left handed pitching this season, which is basically historic for a player who sticks in the majors. Still, Garcia is just not a strike-out pitcher at this point in his career - and it's simply hard to get Bryant to hit ground-balls. his 45% fly-ball percentage was the 6th highest in the major leagues this year. We all know what Bryant can do when he makes contact - and he could be the major game-changer for big tournaments tonight.

Two reasonable plays: Both Turner and Wright are seen as "not terrible" plays by our system, if you want to go cheaper. I guess I'd pick Turner here, since he's actually been a reverse platoon guy (better against right handed pitching) during his career. I'd say Turner in particular feels like a much safer play than Bryant if you're just going for a high floor in tonight's contests.

 

Outfield

Matt Holliday - FD 2600 DK 3800
Opponent- CHC (Hendricks) R Park- @Stl
He'll be batting third against one of the non-aces on the slate, he's coming off his best OBP season (.394) since his last campaign in Colorado in 2008, and he was a little bit better against right handed pitching this season. The power sort of went out for Holliday this season, but his high floor and low price makes him a very attractive play regardless.

Dexter Fowler - FD 2800 DK 4000
Opponent- Stl (Garcia) L Park- @Stl
Fowler was .140 OPS points better against left handed pitching this year, bats lead-off, and has 20+/20+ upside on a season-long basis. And he's cheap! I love grabbing him in any format against the left-handed Garcia, who owns the worst strike-out rate on the slate.

Carl Crawford - FD 2200 DK 2700
Opponent- NYM (Syndergaard) R Park- @Lad
Basically Dexter Fowler without the power, but more speed. Extrapolating Crawford's season totals gives you a 12 homer and 30 steal guy. He also bats atop of his team's lineup when facing right handed pitchers, and was .117 OPS points better against right handed pitching for his career. He's up against a tougher pitcher than Fowler, but he's also way cheaper (especially on DK, where he's being given away). An interesting play for safety and upside, especially considering the price.

Also considered: Stephen Piscotty and Curtis Granderson for upside.

 

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