Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft 10/11/15

Happy Sunday! It's a crazy time of year for Daily Fantasy Baseball. Tons of great pitchers, very short slates, and generally speaking, the lowest scores of the year. Thankfully - today's a little bit of a different story. With 3 pitchers ranging from somewhere between average to below average, there are actually some interesting plays to be made.

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Note: Blue Jays against the left handed Perez are going to be the chalkiest of all chalk line-ups today, and for good reasons. They're going to destroy Perez in all likelihood. Still, though, if you want to win a big tournament, I suggest fading them where possible if you want to take a stab and play against a very small minority of the field.

Pitchers

Edinson Volquez - FD 8300 DK 8400
Opponent- Hou (Keuchel) L Park- @KC
Full disclosure - the pitcher situation is GRIZZLY today. A lot of people will play Keuchel, which makes sense, because he's the best pitcher going by a country mile. The thing is, though, he's REALLY expensive, and the Royals are about as bad a daily fantasy match-up as you can get. They're a hair better than league average in terms of wOBA against left handed pitching, but have struck out at a ridiculously low %15.1 clip against lefties. That's 1.7% better than 2nd place, and more than 11% better than the last place Astros.

The Astros! This brings us to Volquez (that's a professional segue, folks). This is far from a "safe" recommendation - the Astros have the 4th best wOBA in the majors against right handed pitching. They also strike out at the 2nd highest rate against righties. Let's be clear - Volquez is really not a phenomenal pitcher. He's years removed from his best season (2008), and all of his skills are headed in the wrong direction. Still, if you're a lightning in a bottle guy - this could absolutely be it.

Dallas Keuchel - FD 11000 DK 12300
Opponent- KC (Volquez) R Park- @KC
There's some chance that Keuchel is a universal start in 50/50s, so it feels irresponsible to not at least mention him here. As you're well aware, Keuchel is the best pitcher on this slate by a country mile. But he's also nearly 50% more expensive on DraftKings, and about %40 more expensive on FanDuel. On a day where you'll be short on hitting options, that's sort of a huge deal. Still, the Royals are a team that gets by on making tons of contact (rather than crushing the ball), and this should limit Keuchel's downside. He'll also be very much favored to grab a win. I might just bite to bullet and go Volquez, but no one could blame you if you go safe here.

 

Catchers

Russell Martin - FD 3200 DK 4600
Opponent- Tex (Perez) L Park- @Tor
Martin tortured left handed pitching for a .937 OPS in 111 plate appearances this season, and he hits on a lineup that scored 127 (!) runs more than the 2nd highest scoring team in the majors. He's also facing Martin Perez, a young left hander who who's long on talent but short on results. With a 5.49 K/9 and a 2.75 BB/9, he's skated by on a ground-ball rate that's much higher than he's ever posted before. Will it last against the hard hitting Jays? I don't think so. Yeah, you're going to get some Blue Jays going today.

If you've got too many Blue Jays going, Evan Gattis is also a very reasonable play.

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First base

Prince Fielder - FD 3400 DK 4500
Opponent- Tor (Estrada) R Park- @Tor
There are a few solid options at 1st base today, but I'll be playing Fielder. He's more competitively priced than Encarnacion, and has more upside than the others. He slaughtered right handed pitching this season at a .923 OPS clip, and walked 5 more times than he struck out against them. That's just floor for miles, unless he's up against an ace. And Marco Estrada? He ain't that. While he had a lovely 3.13 ERA, it was basically all smoke and mirrors. He ran very hot on HR/FB % (8.7% this season, versus 11.5% the last 3 seasons) - which is a huge deal for a guy with one of the lowest ground-ball rates in the league. His 4.93 xFIP was the 3rd worst in the league, and it stands to reason that a player of Fielder's caliber should be all over him.

Edwin Encarnacion is obviously a great play as well - he's a lefty crusher, and we've given you the skinny on Perez already. Would be a fine play in any format if you can afford him.

 

Second base

Jose Altuve - FD 3400 DK 5200
Opponent- KC (Volquez) R Park- @KC
It's going to be a steady diet of Altuve while the Astros are hanging around, especially in 50/50s and double-ups. What gives him such a high floor? Well, he puts the ball in play or draws a walk in 92% of his plate appearances against right handed pitching, and his max-effort swing leads to a high BABIP that doesn't hurt things either. He bats lead-off for a team that can really hit (which means lots of plate appearances and run scoring opportunities), and is generally awesome. He's also the American League steals leader - making him a pretty solid upside guy in the right spot as well. Is Volquez that spot? Well, I'd say so. Like Estrada, Volquez has run very hot in his separation between ERA and xFIP, and his 4.30 xFIP paints him as a below league average pitcher. This is about as safe a spot as it gets in a 2 game slate.

Against the grain? How about Ben Zobrist? He walked more than he struck out against left handed pitching this season en route to a .926 OPS against left handers, and gives basically everyone he faces fits. It's not a cash game play obviously, but I'd guess he'll be very underowned in big tournaments due to facing Keuchel.

 

Shortstop

Troy Tulowitzki - FD 3600 DK 4000
Opponent- Tex (Perez) L Park- @Tor
He'll be basically a universal start - do I really need to get into it further?

Alcides Escobar - FD 2300 DK 3300
Opponent- Hou (Keuchel) L Park- @KC
In the "stranger things" department, Alcides is a minimum priced player who will be leading off for a team that can really hit. Yes, he's facing an awesome pitcher - but he'll make lots of contact and is as likely as anyone on the Royals to score a run or two. He went 2/5 in the opener, which would happily pay this price today. But man, it will be tough to fade Tulo.

Third base

Josh Donaldson - FD 4600 DK 5400
Opponent- Tex (Perez) L Park- @Tor
Man, it's going to be tough to get away from Donaldson today. He's far and away our projection system's favorite big money play, thanks mostly to his 1.024 OPS against left handed pitching this season (good for 5th in the majors). He's cheaper than he was to close out the regular season, and was also about .200 OPS points better at home this season. All signs point to a potential monster.

Against the grain: Luis Valbuena, against the homer-prone Volquez.

 

Outfield

Jose Bautista - FD 4400 DK 5500
Opponent- Tex (Perez) L Park- @Tor
If you can afford him, again. The highest projected point total of any guy in our system at OF today.

Josh Hamilton - FD 2400 DK 3600
Opponent- Tor (Estrada) R Park- @Tor
Hamilton's a guy who is generally not on the daily fantasy radar, but our projection system has liked him quite a bit at these prices against bad right handed pitching. And hey, he did hit 2 home runs on October 4th in just such a situation! For real, though. Hamilton's major weakness is striking out, and since Estrada gets by primarily on crossing his fingers and hoping balls are caught at the warning track, Hamilton could be in position for a monster game here.

George Springer - FD 3600 DK 5000
Opponent- KC (Volquez) R Park- @KC
Carlos Gomez - FD 3500 DK 4200
Opponent- KC (Volquez) R Park- @KC
Volquez allows a lot of contact, and could definitely put either of these double-threat guys in position to have a great game. Or they could strike out a bunch. Baseball, baby!

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