Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft 10/12/15

Well, this is going to be interesting! I'm writing this before FD and DK have released any games, so I don't have total clarity as far as pricing is concerned, nor do I have the benefit of our system (which will automate when those games go live). Thankfully, I'm coming off of 200 straight days or whatever of doing this, so hopefully I'll be able to get close!

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Pitchers

So, the clear safe play on the board today is Arrieta. He's been a man among boys really for the last two seasons, and shone a particularly bright light on that recently, mowing down literally every team in his path. But he's really expensive, and on such a small slate you might find yourself slotting in some pretty bad hitters if you play him. If you go to make your 50/50 lineup today and it's just not clicking, there are some other dudes you can consider.

Matt Harvey - FD 10100 DK 11900
Opponent- LAD (Anderson) L Park- @Lad
A step down from Arrieta price wise, and our system thinks he could put up a similar point total against the Dodgers. We've seen DeGrom and Syndergaard go off for gaudy strike-out totals, and Harvey's got arguably the best stuff out of all of them. After a slow start to the season while returning from Tommy John surgery, Harvey put up a 10+ K/9 and a sub 1 BB/9 in August and September, cementing him as the ace's ace type that he flashed pre-injury. The Dodgers are no easy pickings - they've got the 8th highest wOBA in the majors against right handers this season - but they are prone to strike-out, and Harvey will be going in the pitcher-friendly Citi Field.

Michael Wacha - FD 8500 DK 8300
Opponent- CHC (Arrieta) R Park- @Stl
If you're trying to go for straight points per dollar upside today, Wacha has to be the guy. The Cubs struck out at an historic 24% clip against right handed pitching this season, and are playing basically the same lineup that netted them that incredible rate. Now, they can also really hit. And Arrieta is awesome, making getting a win pretty tough here. Still, though - if you're playing a big tournament, why not grab a 24 year old with a career 7.95 K/9 and a 3.21 ERA?

Well, he's been just awful in September. Jeff Sullivan over at FanGraphs wrote a fantastic article diving in to why. This might even bolster the case for playing Arrieta. Still, though, if Wacha has been able to catch his breath on these 12 days rest, he might be able to do some real damage for you.

Another interesting upside play: Brett Anderson. Ground-balls for miles, and a ridiculously cheap price that lets you pay up elsewhere.
 

Catchers

Russell Martin - FD 3200 DK 3800
Opponent- Tex (Holland) L Park- @Tor
It's just going to be a Blue Jays day again, if you're looking for safety. Martin conspicuously got the day off in Sunday's contest, and as of this writing, Navarro has doubled and scored off of Martin Perez. If he goes again, I like him as well. If Martin goes, though, he had a .937 OPS in 111 plate appearances against left handers during the regular season, and looks like a heck of a play against Derek Holland.

I won't write bad things about Holland in every single recommendation, but I need to give you the deets at least once. Holland was deeply below average in his 10 starts this season, posting a 4.45 xFIP on the back of a below average K rate and above average walk rate. He's also very home run prone, and this game being in the hitter's haven of Texas isn't helping matters. I'd play Martin (or Navarro) anywhere.

Consider: Evan Gattis.

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First base

Prince Fielder - FD 3400 DK 4300
Opponent- Tor (Dickey) R Park- @Tor
While Fielder didn't hit a ton of homers this season, he did whip righties for a .923 OPS this season, while walking more than he struck out. Meanwhile, R.A. Dickey has been one of the most hittable pitchers in the entire major leagues, allowing a 4.72 xFIP over 214 innings pitched. Now, Dickey's xFIP often trails his ERA (these systems don't always know what to do with knuckle-ballers), but his 5.49 K/9 and above average 1.2 HR/9 rate since moving to Toronto tell you all you need to know about what Prince and the Rangers could do to him here.

If you can afford him, Edwin Encarnacion is one of the very best in the world at crushing left handed pitching - especially the home-run prone kind. But man, that price! I'll probably just go Fielder unless I'm specifically stacking Blue Jays. If you want a more off-beat big tournament option (and a heart attack), consider Chris Carter.

 

Second base

Jose Altuve - FD 3400 DK 5000
Opponent- KC (Ventura) R Park- @KC
Are you not entertained by me recommending the same plays every night? That's the baseball playoffs for you, especially when teams are trotting out guys of the same handedness and prices aren't changing much. Altuve is a contact machine against right handers - putting the ball in play or walking in 91% of his at bats, and hits line drives at a well above average clip. His hidden secret, though? Infield hits. Altuve had a 12.7% infield hit percentage, which was good for 6th in the majors this season. He also led the AL in steals.

And then there's Yordano Ventura. Time for his pitcher profile!! He's a better pitcher than his ERA suggests, but his lack of command gives back a lot of what he gains from his strike-outs. I think Altuve is a high floor play here.

Our system keeps spitting out Kolten Wong, even against Arrieta. It's basically because he's so damned cheap, and it's tough to be that cheap with this much opportunity and not be worth a gamble. It's paid off so far this playoffs, so we'll see. I'll probably just grab Altuve though.

 

Shortstop

Troy Tulowitzki - FD 3600 DK 3500
Opponent- Tex (Holland) L Park- @Tor
Tulo has been a pretty big daily fantasy disappointment since moving away from Colorado, and while that's all well and good, he really hasn't been as bad as many realize in one particular situation - facing lefties. He's had a .940 OPS this season against southpaws, and given that he'll likely be batting 5th for the Blue Jays' generational offense, it'll be hard to ignore him against a below average fly-ball pitcher.

Alcides did it again after we recommended him for Sunday's slate, rapping out 2 singles in 5 plate appearances against the awesome Dallas Keuchel on Sunday. That's not fantastic production or anything, but as of this writing, Elvis Andrus and Tulo are 0-1, and Carlos Correa was twice as expensive for half the production. I'm just saying - the man can make contact, and gets a ton of opportunity at the top of the Royals' lineup. It's a little bit bigger slate today, but I won't think twice about sliding him in if I need the savings.

Third base

David Wright - FD 3400 DK 3500
Opponent- LAD (Anderson) L Park- @Lad
Wright had a godlike 1.023 OPS against left handed pitching this season, and you're like, "James, dude - sample sizes! Come on!" You're rolling your eyes, ready to press the back button - but wait! He's also got a 1.005 OPS against left handed pitching for his career. The man was basically put on planet Earth to abuse major league left handed pitching. It's what he does. Today he'll face Brett Anderson, who is a much better pitching than his K/9 suggests due to his league leading (and downright absurd) 66% ground ball rate. Still, though, on these prices you're only sitting Wright against the elite of the elite left handed pitching, and Anderson isn't that.

Josh Donaldson - FD 4600 DK 4700
Opponent- Tex (Holland) L Park- @Tor
Donaldson is another retread from last night's picks, but he remains an amazing play on this price point against another lefty in Derek Holland. You can safely play him anywhere, if you can afford him. And my guess is that when you're optimizing for points per dollar and have to spend up somewhere, you'll wind up playing him in all of your non-Arrieta lineups.

 

Outfield

Jose Bautista - FD 4400 DK 4900
Opponent- Tex (Holland) L Park- @Tor
This might wind up being the Toronto play that forces your hand today, just given the other options at outfield. Bautista's season line was held down by a BABIP about .040 points below his career levels, but he's obviously one of the premier power threats in the game against left handed pitching. Combine his upside with Holland's fly-ball tendencies, and this one could get ugly.

Ben Zobrist - FD 3200 DK 3900
Opponent- Hou (McCullers) R Park- @KC
Boy, does our system like it some Ben Zobrist on these prices. Zobrist underratedly walked 4 more times than he struck out against right handed pitching this season - a hallmark of his impeccable approach and patience. Zobrist isn't a tremendous upside guy, but his good eye and McCullers' tendency to give out free passes are a good mix for a nice high floor for Zobrist in cash games.

Josh Hamilton - FD 2400 DK 3600
Opponent- Tor (Dickey) R Park- @Tor
Another guy we keep liking against righties, as long as he plays. Here's what I wrote about Hamilton last night:

Hamilton's a guy who is generally not on the daily fantasy radar, but our projection system has liked him quite a bit at these prices against bad right handed pitching. And hey, he did hit 2 home runs on October 4th in just such a situation! For real, though. Hamilton's major weakness is striking out, and since Estrada gets by primarily on crossing his fingers and hoping balls are caught at the warning track, Hamilton could be in position for a monster game here.

Dickey is arguably a worse pitcher than Estrada, so we clearly like him a bundle here as well.

Consider: Colby Rasmus, Carlos Gomez, and George Springer against the overrated Ventura.
 

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