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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft 10/13/15
Another super-duper-short slate, but I know you all are like me - just trying to wring out the last little bits of the daily fantasy baseball season. Picture me giving you the look a bartender gives an alcoholic who has just come in out of a hurricane at 11pm, looking for his usual seat at the bar. I'm sighing, waving you over to your stool, and pouring your usual without you asking for it.
If you're new to the playoff picks, I'll be giving you one play per position to whet your appetite. You can also grab a free trial of the projection system that makes these picks possible. Your free trial also includes access to our NFL and NHL tools - so get started today!
Pitchers
Clayton Kershaw - FD 12700 DK 14400 Matz L Park- @Lad
I imagine you might have seen this coming. Even at these ungodly salaries, our projection system likes Kershaw as the best bang for your buck in 50/50s and double-ups tomorrow. Is it any surprise? The guy's putting up vintage Bob Gibson numbers, and the Mets have a decent handful of guys who are seriously terrible against left handed pitching. The Metropolitans got to him in game 1, and this is short rest and all, but if you want safety on the shortest of slates, you really ought not to look elsewhere.
Edited to add: I just talked to Doug, who says the "not clutch" narrative is going to reduce Kershaw's ownership percentage tonight. If that's miraculously the case, then he'll probably just be a great play regardless. If you buy in to 5 game sample sizes or whatever, this daily fantasy sports thing isn't going to go well for you.
Lance Lynn - FD 8400 DK 7500
Opponent- Chc (Hammel) R Park- @Stl
We've gotten eaten for lunch recommending Cards pitchers against the Cubs so far, but by golly, it's an awful short sample size. Lynn's a strike-out pitcher (8.71 career K/9) with control issues, which makes him the perfect feast or famine start for big tourneys today. When he's good, he can put up gaudy numbers. When he's less than great, he can get absolutely wrecked. The Cubs have been playing the role of the wrecking ball in this short series so far, but let's not forget that this is the same team that put up an historic 24% k rate against right handed pitching in 2015. You can't call it a sure thing, but with the world honing in on Kershaw today, it certainly makes for an interesting gamble. Editor's note: Originally Lynn was penciled in to start, but it looks like Lackey will take the bump for the Cards today. Not quite the K upside as Lynn, but the price makes him an okay value on such a small slate. Risky of course.
Catchers
Yasmani Grandal - FD 2900 DK 2500
Opponent- NYM (Matz) L Park- @Lad
Matz is simply the least credentialed pitcher on the slate, and frankly, it really isn't even that close. The guy started the season in High A, and the last time he took the mound was in a simulation game because he was injured. Is he a good prospect? Sure. Does he have potential? Absolutely. Could he actually get lucky and have a great start? Why not. But the Dodgers are a serious major league baseball team, and the switch hitting Grandal will be the closest thing you find to safety on a night when 3 of the 4 pitchers going are established strikeout-per-inning guys at the major league level.
Consider: Miguel Montero on the cheap, as an off-beat upside play.
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First base
Anthony Rizzo - FD 4400 DK 4500
Opponent- Stl (Lynn) R Park- @Stl
In the interest of full disclosure, our system prefers Adrian Gonzalez in a lefty/lefty match-up with Matz, but I'll take Rizzo and his righty mashing ways against the erratic Lynn. The 25 year old hit 25 homers and had a .905 OPS against righties in 503 plate appearances against them this season, and while that's not Bondsian upside or anything, it's what passes as such on this slate. If you don't play Kershaw, you'll have to spend up somewhere - and this is a great spot to do it.
If you do spend up and take Kershaw, then Adrian Gonzalez is still probably your best bet in spite of his recent suckitude.
Second base
Howie Kendrick - FD 3200 DK 3700
Opponent- NYM (Matz) L Park- @Lad
Kendrick is now batting lead-off for the Dodgers, and he's facing the weakest pitcher on the slate. I don't mean to besmirch Matz too much, by the way. He was great in the minors this season, and has performed well in a really limited sample size in the majors so far. But Kendrick makes a lot of hard contact, will be batting in front of some fine hitters behind him, and has been .043 OPS points better against lefties over the course of his career. He's not a conventional upside play by any stretch, but he's got the highest floor on the slate from where I'm sitting.
Also considered: Kolten Wong. Minimum price, still getting the plate appearances he needs to justify this price, and has a fair match-up in a positive platoon situation with Jason Hammel, who hasn't exactly been dominating recently.
Shortstop
Jimmy Rollins - FD 2600 DK 2800
Opponent- NYM (Matz) L Park- @Lad
Jhonny Peralta - FD 2600 DK 3400
Opponent- Chc (Hammel) R Park- @Stl
Two guys our system likes for the very same reasons - fair prices, and tons of opportunity. Rollins is batting 2nd for the Dodgers against Steven Matz, and Peralta will bat fifth against Jason Hammel and the Cubs. If I had to give the nod somewhere it'd be to Rollins - his he's a switch hitter, and has basically been platoon neutral over the course of his career, whereas Peralta has been decidedly better against left handed pitching. Still, they're close enough that I'll probably hedge by playing Rollins on DK (where he's cheaper) and Peralta on FanDuel (where they are the same price).
Third base
Justin Turner - FD 3200 DK 3400
Opponent- NYM (Matz) L Park- @Lad
Turner's been way better against right handed pitching during his young career, but again, our system is just seeing Steven Matz and going from there. It's more a case against your other options. David Wright is a lefty killer, but when that lefty is Kershaw? Gulp. Matt Carpenter is a great hitter, but he's really expensive for a guy with little power/speed upside. Kris Bryant's got the upside, but the combination of price and a big strike-out guy facing a good strike-out pitcher leaves me wanting more. So, I'll probably just go with Turner and avoid the risk elsewhere.
Outfield
Kyle Schwarber - FD 3400 DK 4000
Opponent- Stl (Lynn) R Park- @Stl
Dexter Fowler - FD 2800 DK 3900
Opponent- Stl (Lynn) R Park- @Stl
The Cubs put an incredible hurting on Michael Wacha and the the Cards in game 3, and homers from these two were at the heart of it. Schwarber was a revelation against right handed pitching this season, homering in 7% of his plate appearances en route to a .953 OPS. Fowler has been the classic high floor, sneaky high upside guy - batting leadoff with a good approach, and maintaining 20/20 power and speed. While Lynn could ultimately cut these guys down, I like them both quite a bit. Give me Fowler for safety, and K-Schwarb for upside.
Jorge Soler - FD 2800 DK 3500
Opponent- Stl (Lynn) R Park- @Stl
A tier below these guys in terms of points per dollar projection, but all the same logic still applies.
Jason Heyward - FD 3400 DK 4200
Opponent- Chc (Hammel) R Park- @Stl
Heyward was solid, if unspectacular against right handed pitching this season, posting an .835 OPS against right handers on the back of a very solid 9% BB rate to 11% K rate ratio. His 15 homers and 11 steals in those 429 plate appearances are a reasonable rate if you're cruising for upside, and Jason Hammel, while good, shouldn't scare the bejesus out of you or anything. Frankly, it's a fairly hard night to grab any good OF plays, so Heyward kind of jumps to the top of our list by default rather than by any terrific credentials of his own.
Any Dodgers guys that go might ultimately be the safest way to go at this position, though you'll have to decide between them and the guys listed above. I'll take the above guys over any of the players trotted out at OF today.
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image sources
- Clayton_Kershaw_(8663891407): By Keith Allison from Owings Mills, USA (Clayton KershawUploaded by Muboshgu) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
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Great write-ups as always, but let’s remember that the short-rest angle (for Kershaw) is not a small sample size…not sure how significant it is, but fangraphs did have an article about short rest vs. normal rest and the results “aren’t very good” (especially when considering you usually have your ace as the one on short rest) With that being said, I’m still taking Kershaw in my 50/50’s but just a thought.
Great thoughts, Jeremy! Short rest is a real thing for sure. Who are you playing if you fade Kershaw, though? These short slates are super tough.
I agree completely, not much out there that’s why I’m playing him in all 50/50/s but just another angle, but too risky to leave him off
Interesting – I find myself going heavier in big tournaments when there’s uncertainty like this. Though in 50/50s, you’re basically just playing Kershaw and then competing on the rest of your lineup, which can be fairly low variance.
Why wouldn’t you play Cespedes today? He has been on a tear….
Hey Ricky! No Cespedes for me against Kershaw. He’s been better against righties as a major leaguer, and while some of that looks BABIP induced, I’ve anecdotally noticed that it sometimes takes foreign players a while to adjust to elite left handed pitching (because that really doesn’t exist outside the US). And even if he’s on a tear, it stands to reason that the rest of the Mets will not be. I won’t be playing him.
What about how bad Kershaw has been in the playoffs throughout his career?
basically a 9 man slate since most are taking kershaw in a 50/50, but there is always 10-15% who go contrarian and then you’re competing against only 85-90% of the contest… then just hoping the numbers work in my favor there
Hey Zack –
The “Kershaw sucks in the postseason” thing is overblown. In the last three seasons (I’m discarding stuff that happened 6 years ago – he isn’t the same pitcher now), he has an 11.15 K/9 and 2.78 BB/9. The walks are up a little, the strike-outs are up a little, but by and large he’s pretty much had the same peripherals. I’ll take that over the narrative any day.
The 3 days rest thing that Jeremy points out is a little more troubling, but it’s more as a case against playing Kershaw than a case for playing a $4,300 Cespedes on FanDuel.
“basically a 9 man slate since most are taking kershaw in a 50/50, but there is always 10-15% who go contrarian and then you’re competing against only 85-90% of the contest… then just hoping the numbers work in my favor there”
I’ve noticed the same thing as you, Jeremy. If it were close between Kershaw and someone else, I would go in a different direction. But you can just get so much more money in on a good multiplier here – every optimal lineup per our system will have Kershaw in it.
I just wanna know what team tonight do you think will be scoring the most points. To me, besides a pitcher, that is the most important thing I need to know. If you could start putting up projected scores that would be great. Especially in a two game tournament play. It will help with my stack. And I follow you constantly. Your advice is excellent and well thought. Thanks.
Hey Rushmore! The Cubs have the highest total runs projected tonight, per Vegas lines (last line I saw was Cubs -115, and a game O/U of 8.
Unless you’re referring to the guys’ point totals themselves. In that case, all of that information can be found by accessing our projection system (http://www.dailyfantasysportsrankings.com/membership).
I meant the entire team. Thank you for the speedy reply. Is there anyway you can start putting your projected point totals on this review, instead of the Vegas ones. I trust your advice much more. You have done wonders for my drafting and how I look at players, for all sports. I figure in a two game slate the point totals should be pretty Important. It can help us figure out what team to stack up players on. At least the players that make sense.
John lackey is the starting pitcher for stl. Tonight. Not Lynn. Does that change your opinion for who will score the most poi ts tonight. If so, who do you think it will be with the pitcher being lackey, not Lynn. The mets game included. Also I’m sure that might change your opinion on some of your picks. Like skipping over gonzalez. Sorry for the multiple questions.
I’m going off of O/Us that take that into account.
The Cubs and Cards both have higher totals than the Dodgers and Mets. My gut tells me the Dodgers can get to Matz, though, and I’d certainly like to play their righties (Kendrick and Turner in particular) against him.
Wow – just saw your first comment! Thanks very much for the kind words. As for our projected totals vs. Vegas, frankly, you should just trust Vegas. Points totals are not what we do, and while our statistical modeling could probably engineer something like a total, we’re not inclined to put it through that when Vegas is already pretty great at it.
The O/U for Cubs/Cards is 8.0, Dodgers/Mets 6.5. Good luck!
Some great pics. I ended up going with Matz. Not a fan of short starts and that Cubs/Cards game will probably be 11-10. Good luck to everyone.
Good luck, Thomas! Matz is definitely intriguing.
Thanks! not really in love with Matz just more of a last man standing 🙂 Didn’t like Cubs/Cards and Mattingly isn’t doing his job right if he doesn’t have at least one eye on the second round. Short start tonight plus potential of leading off the second round if they can get past the Mets just seems like a short night for Kershaw. He either gets hit or yanked after like 5 or 6 innings with 6 ks.