Daily NFL Fantasy Football Thoughts for FanDuel and DraftKings Heading into Week 7

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Matthew Stafford - Comeback Kid

Our projection system had Stafford as the number one points per dollar play on the board leading into Week Six. One great thing about computers is they are emotionless. It was easy to hate Stafford going into the game until you realized he had run into some awesome defenses to start the season. Dude isn't an elite quarterback, but he was certainly underpriced going into the matchup against the Bears. After getting pulled the game before there was some concern it would happen again. But Stafford (and to some degree Lamar Miller as well) is a good example of what happens when public perception reduces a player's salary beyond the breaking point.

There is a great deal of context that informs every set of picks and every projection system. But sometimes taking a step back and looking at a player from a purely statistical standpoint can mean removing the "Never again, he killed me" piece. We want to avoid that in DFS whenever possible. Football is such a cruel beast because the sample sizes are so damned small. One game (or a couple) can wildly swing public perception of a player or a team. But football has taught us that the player you are one week might not be your projection for all games going forward.

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New York Jets - Real Team

As of right now, only four teams in the league (Pats, Packers, Bengals, and Cardinals) have a better points differential than the Jets. I doubt very many would have projected this kind of dominance for a team with Ryan Fitzpatrick behind center and Chris Ivory handling the load. But here we are. Now granted, they haven't exactly run the gauntlet in terms of schedule, having faced teams with a combined 9-10 record (when subtracting for the Jets defeats). But they've manhandled teams on defense, allowing the least amount of points in the league at only 15 points per game.

Chris Ivory and the run blocking have been a revelation, as the former is averaging 5.5 yards per carry which has helped them rank sixth in terms of time of possession. This kind of run game, a quarterback who's content to play it safe combined with a stout defense and teams have a lot of trouble putting up points on the Jets. Something will have to give this weekend against the Pats who are second in point differential.

The Jets haven't faced an offense like the Pats because really no other offense is like the Pats. The line opened at Pats -9 which seems just a little too high if you think the Jets are even a little bit for real.

Ronnie Hillman and James Starks - Price Corrections Coming

We are always looking to buy when the opportunity for a player creeps up (or projects to skyrocket) before the price can keep pace. Both Hillman and Starks put together very nice games on Sunday when the starters (Lacy and Anderson) under performed. Lacy has been hobbled and looked slow while Anderson's been an anchor all season long. One difference between these two guys and a dude like say, Charcandrick West is wrapped in past performance. Starks and Hillman, at various points in their careers have been given the reps. They haven't always been supremely effective, but they at least have had first team go of things. It's always tough to know how much trust a coaching staff will have with a replacement running back, often choosing to go with some kind of committee until something comes out in the wash. But with both Green Bay and Denver off this week, prices for both of these guys will come up. What a shame.

These were just a couple of things that stood out to me this week. What did I miss? Leave a comment below.