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featured Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

10/27/2015
Doug Norrie

Daily NFL Fantasy Football Thoughts for FanDuel and DraftKings Heading into Week 8

It was an interesting week in the NFL to say the very least. The Dolphins looked like a real, living breathing team for the second week in a row. The quarterback's post game Vine went wild. A bunch of games went down to the wire (even when it looked like they were over quick). And so much more. Here are a few things that stood out from Week 7 and what we can look for going to Week 8.

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Chalk Plays Abound

It isn't often you'll such chalk plays on a given slate of the NFL. I mean guys crop up all the time, and there are even a few on the horizon coming this week. But to see what happened, especially at running back and DST this week, won't happen every week. Here take a look at the highest owned players on FanDuel this week in 50/50s.

[table id=195 /]

Chalk doesn't always play but at running back and DST, it didn't really make sense to get away from those guys. In our system, LeVeon Bell was projected for slightly more points than Freeman at a little better pts/$. But I opted for Freeman because A: it was close and B: I didn't think that was the right kind of spot to get away from the pack. Freeman didn't pay, but the process on it was of course sound. There are times to get away from chalk plays on a slate, especially when popularity is narrative-based rather than performance-based. But this week wasn't one of them in the RB pack. WR's disappointed some though not all the way down the line. Fitz was of course a bust in a matchup that had everything going for him. And Deandre Hopkins' output went to Nate Washington (a DFSR value play, *cough*brag*cough*). Weird week in the WR ranks for sure.

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More Cheap RBs than You Can Handle for Week 8

There are a lot of different story lines heading out of Week 7 and into Week 8. The status of teams and their running backs is one of them. In addition to the bell cows we already have out there like Gurley, Freeman, Peterson, Lynch, etc. a bunch of new guys may very well join the mix. Arian Foster goes down for good leaving the Houston backfield in flux. Beyond that, Ronnie Hillman will start getting first team reps, James Starks looks to take over Eddie Lacy's role, Charcandrick West got the lionshare of the carries against the Steelers, Darren McFadden looks like the Cowboys' lead back now (though he'll have to face Seattle) and those are just the ones I though of off the top of my head. Very much unlike this week, I suspect the RB ownership numbers are all over the place.

Garbage Time Heroics - Don't Give Up So Soon

I just couldn't help the long title with that one. There were at least three teams this week who looked more like characters out of The Walking Dead than actual real life NFL players through about a half of football. The Colts, Texans and Chargers all failed to show up in the first half of their respective games, leaving Rivers, Luck and Hopkins, owners (to name a few) wanting to find the nearest samurai sword and end things with dignity (I include myself in this group). But then the second half for all of them came around and things turned. It was a garbage time smorgasbord with those teams playing massive catchup and airing it out all over the place. This was an interesting lesson in how it takes a whole game. Not everyone is going to hit value in the waning minutes, but it does point to waiting to see what happens right up until the last whistle blows.

These were just a couple of things that stood out to me this week. What did I miss? Leave a comment below.

 

image sources

  • 1024px-Andrew_Luck_2013: By Mr.schultz (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

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