Daily Fantasy NBA Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 10/28/15

The NBA is back! And honestly, I feel like if never really left us. The Finals seem like yesterday, the off season saw a ton of moves and we are ready to jump back into another season. We'll be bringing you daily picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and more. It's going to be a great season.

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Quick note on these picks: There is a lot to guess at to start the season. Tons of players have switched uniforms. Teams have slightly changed their approach. Rookies are in the mix. New starting lineups abound. It's somewhat tough sledding until we see some games and get a sense of how teams are going to use players. That being said, we've gone over the data and made a number of adjustments to our system in order to get things as close as humanly (and algorithmic-ally) possibel. Our projection system handles the little bits of pricing and projecting differences. That being said, for this opening slate I think you are very much going to be taking a stars and punts approach.

POINT GUARD

Damian Lillard - FD 9000 DK 8900
Opponent - NOP FD Proj. Pts - 36.38 DK Proj. Pts - 39.52
It's a new dawn, it's a new day, it's a new life and Damian's feeling, well, he must be feeling like he wants to just jack it up from the rafters. The Blazers are a completely new team going into this season with the entire starting five from last year gone except for Lillard. No other team's experienced the kind of turnover the Blazers saw and this is now, more than ever, Lillard's team. He's a guy whose usage's gone up when Lamarcus isn't around and it stands to reason that carries over in a big way into this first game (and beyond). The Pelicans have their own issues to deal with and though the Blazers might have a rough season, it's tough to imagine New Orleans running away with this one.

Chris Paul - FD 9800 DK 9400
Opponent - SAC FD Proj. Pts - 42.94 DK Proj. Pts - 44.82
I'm thinking Lillard is a much safer play just because of the usage, CP3 is a fine enough spot going into this first game. Paul has all of his "friends" back this season, plus has added Paul Pierce and Lance Stephenson to the mix. The Clips run just a little bit deeper, but not in ways that would effect Paul's value too terribly much. This is a huge slate and there are tons of ways to go. But Paul comes in as a high floor guy in a game in which the Clips should have no issue scoring.

Shane Larkin - FD 4500 DK 3000
Opponent - CHI FD Proj. Pts - 21.56 DK Proj. Pts - 22.85
He'll draw the start for Jarrett Jack on Wednesdy. And if you know anything about NBA DFS then you know these are the spot we look to buy extreme value. There's a chance he splits time with Donald Sloan, but I'm less worried about that considering the price. Larkin isn't a high ceiling guy with his skill set, but if he's looking down the barrel at 30 minutes of run, then I'd be shocked if he didn't value at these prices.

Consider Emmanuel Mudiay starting for the Denver and Isaiah Canaan especially on DraftKings.

SHOOTING GUARD

James Harden - FD 10800 DK 10100
Opponent - DEN FD Proj. Pts - 46.67 DK Proj. Pts - 49.55
Dwight Howard isn't going to play in the first game of the season. And while Harden is good when Dwight is on the court with a 29.3 Usage rate, that number jumps to 33 when Howard isn't around. This is Harden's team through and through and he should be one of the top plays of the night to start the season. Harden is one of those other-worldly scorers who's great for cash games (and tournaments alike) because he gets the line so much. This kind of built in floor really helps him relative to many of his other SG kin. He costs a ton, but I think he's one of the best big money plays on the night.

Danny Green - FD 4200 DK 5100
Opponent - OKC FD Proj. Pts - 24.43 DK Proj. Pts - 27.43
It's always tough to know what the Spurs are going to do from a game-to-game, season-to-season standpoint, so projecting for any of them on a daily basis can make even the sanest bro just a little bit crazy. Believe us, we've been there. And there's a reason the saying "Getting Pop'd" means something in DFS circles. But I think Green is in a fine place from a minutes projection standpoint going into this one. Marco Belinelli is gone, Green's on a new contract and he should be all system's go. Needs to the hit three to really hit top end value, but the price is right, especially on FanDuel.

Lance Stephenson - FD 3500 DK 3000
Opponent - SAC FD Proj. Pts - 20.1 DK Proj. Pts - 21.29
Early word is that he starts for the Clippers on Wednesday. If he was in the starting unit and projecting to get even 25 minutes, then these prices may very well end up looking very silly. Stephenson is of course an enigma. He was a stud in Indy, a total waste in Charlotte and he's been given a "fresh start" in LA. In some ways I'd almost like him better if I knew he was going to lead the second unit because his style may not fit with some of the Alphas the Clips are putting out there. He could easily become a forgotten man. But if he's in the starting five and pushing the minutes then getting him at punt prices is very much worth the risk.

 

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SMALL FORWARD

Marcus Morris - FD 5700 DK 4500
Opponent - UTA FD Proj. Pts - 25.01 DK Proj. Pts - 26.86
Our system liked him going into the first game of the season on the assumption he would grab the majority of the minutes for the Pistons at the three. That bore out even more than expected and he logged 37 minutes at small forward. While I don't expect that kind of top end run from the guy as a rule, it's good to know he's the man at small forward. And if that's the case then he's severely under priced. Morris can score and rebound in bunches and plays well enough away from the basket to get an assists here and there. Utah is a tougher defensive matchup, but the minutes win out here for Marcus who might just be okay out there in the world away from his brother.

Chris Copeland - FD 3800 DK 3000
Opponent - NYK FD Proj. Pts - 18.13 DK Proj. Pts - 19.89
The beginning of the NBA season (and especially the first couple of nights) can start looking stars and scrubs-y real quick. That's because some of the pricing been set well in advance of any kind of news, making way for major gaps in value. Copeland could very well be one of those guys. With Giannis Antetokounmpo suspended for the first game, Copeland could draw the start for the Bucks and play major minutes at minimum prices. That's the kind of opportunity we are looking for. Copeland fits the Bucks mold of going long and rangy. He should fit right in coming over from Indy and his skillset plays well with their system. If he's in the starting lineup then this is a great place to save a ton and buy up for the studs in other areas.

Trevor Ariza - FD 5800 DK 5800
Opponent - DEN FD Proj. Pts - 27.33 DK Proj. Pts - 30.54
A DFSR favorite, Ariza is one of the minutes guys we love to run out there when the price is right. He's coming somewhat on the cheaper side of things in the first game of the year against the (presumably) fast-paced Nuggets. Ariza can become three-point dependent at times, which will kill some of the upside if the shot isn't falling. Though he does typically get enough run to cover his floor.

POWER FORWARD

Anthony Davis - FD 11200 DK 10400
Opponent - POR FD Proj. Pts - 49 DK Proj. Pts - 49.75
We're writing this up before the GS-NO game has tipped off (and we're now 20 minutes late - God how I missed the NBA), but Davis easily represents the very highest tier in terms of both safety and upside tonight. He's a superstar in 4 of the 5 categories, and has top scorer of the night potential in any given night given his combination of minutes and skills. And tonight? He'll be up against what's left of the Portland Trailblazers. The Blazers were one of the best teams in the league against opposing big men last season, but have undergone a total facelift on the the front line. No more Aldridge, no more Lopez, no more Kaman. With Mason Plumlee and Meyers Leonard patrolling the paint, Davis will be involved in one of the very biggest mismatches of the real NBA opening day.

Kevin Love - FD 7200 DK 7500
Opponent - MEM FD Proj. Pts - 33.73 DK Proj. Pts - 36.19
The question with Love since he's come to Cleveland has always surrounded his usage. Well, with Kyrie out and a real back-up in (Mo Williams) Love lofted 17 shots in his first game of the 2015-2016 season, and while he wasn't very effective on those shots, he really doesn't need to be at these prices. His 18/8/4 with a couple of blocks sprinkled in had him easily paying value - a trend which ought to continue while he's priced this way. Before you get bent out of shape about the Grizzlies match-up, take a deep breath. The Grizzlies were almost exactly league average when it came to allowing points and rebounds per game against opposing PFs last season, and their strength is far more at defending low-post guys than guys like Love. Should be another very solid game.

David Lee - FD 5400 DK 5400
Opponent - PHI FD Proj. Pts - 29.78 DK Proj. Pts - 30.21
All reports out of Boston are that Lee will be a feature part of the offensive plan in Boston, and certainly, his team-first attitude fits right in with what Brad Stevens has been putting together out that way. You don't love that Jared Sullinger is looming behind him on the bench, but at these prices, Lee could have a heck of a game on a points per dollar basis even in limited minutes. His presumably high usage and presence underneath should make him a high floor play with plenty of ceiling if the minutes break on the higher end of what we're expecting.

Ersan Ilyasova - FD 5200 DK 5700
Opponent - UTA FD Proj. Pts - 29.06 DK Proj. Pts - 30.83
Finally free from Bucks playing-time Hell, Ghostface Ilya put in a very effective 34 minutes in spite of battling foul trouble in the season's opener. He's still priced like the back-up/rotation guy he was last season, and it's clear that his minutes should be much greater than these mid-tier prices clearly assume. This early in the season, certainty is the name of the game. Getting a guy with this kind of opportunity on these price points mean you can spend up on guys like Davis, which ought to be a winning proposition. As for the Jazz - nothing to see there. They're basically a league average match-up for opposing power forwards when PACE comes out in the wash, meaning you should expect Ilyasova to meet his established points per minute thresholds.

 

 

CENTER

DeMarcus Cousins - FD 10900 DK 10300
Opponent - LAC FD Proj. Pts - 49.57 DK Proj. Pts - 50.23
When it comes to spots to spend up tonight, Boogie ranks among the top two or three (along with Harden and Davis). When Cousins got clear of his bizarre Meningitis, he was arguably the premier fantasy force this side of a Durantless Russell Westbrook. In his last six games, Cousins averaged 28 points, 17 rebounds, 2 steals, and 3 blocks. Averaged! Simply ridiculous production from one of the league's best. As for the match-up, the Clippers' high-profile big men are a lot more sizzle than steak on the defensive end, allowing 6% more scoring than league average to opposing Cs throughout the course of the year. Love Boogie in any format.

Tyler Zeller - FD 5000 DK 3000
Opponent - PHI FD Proj. Pts - 29.76 DK Proj. Pts - 30.19
After Cousins, things start to get a bit more speculative. Zeller averaged 11/6 as a starter last season, but only got 23 minutes a game in those contests. With Olynyk off the radar, Zeller should see a requisite bump in minutes, and if he does, he should be able to pay these prices going away. We yet don't know what to expect from Jahlil Okafor defensively, but with Nerlens Noel shadowing David Lee, the C's big man should get his fair share of looks.

Hassan Whiteside - FD 7700 DK 6500
Opponent - CHA FD Proj. Pts - 34 DK Proj. Pts - 34.59
Mr. Whiteside averaged 33 FanDuel fantasy points per game in his 32 games as a starter last season, and while that's not a huge total on these prices, one has to also consider that he was playing just 27 minutes a game in those contests. Whiteside is now in a contract year, and the Heat were stretching him to 30+ minutes a game in the preseason. If he's going to play that many minutes, chances are you're looking at a guy who's at a 10% discount to what he'll be in a couple of weeks. Grabbing him against the aging and never really effective on D Al Jefferson seems like a nice high floor play if you can't pay up for Cousins.

Consider: Kosta Koufos, and Kendrick Perkins, if you're into the whole super cheap center thing. Really, there are a TON of cheap upside plays at Center today - but the thing is, you're going to have to spend up somewhere. Our projection system can help you get a better sense of exactly where to pay up, and where to go for your punts.

As a wildly speculative play, Jahlil Okafor had huge usage for the Sixers (33%) during the preseason. It's the preseason, right? But sometimes, where there's smo

 

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