Daily Fantasy NFL Football Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftPot - Week 9

Editor's note: Get ready for Raybon's insightful article on NFL's week 9! He's done an amazing job breaking down the top plays of the week, but obviously, he could never include every single great play. If you want point projections for individual players? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot.

It was another killer week for DFSR's projection system. Eli Manning was the top overall QB play in our system and he and Brees played a game more suited to college football on Saturdays. Needless to say, we're all feeling pretty good around here!

 

This week, I’d like to take a moment to discuss some correlations that you may not be utilizing in tournaments. Everyone knows about the QB-receiver or RB-defense stacks, but an overlooked correlation play is players from opposing pass games. In tournaments, you’re looking for outlying performances, and when one passing game posts an outlying performance (think the Saints last week), it puts pressure on the opposing passing game to do the same (think the Giants last week).

In fact, the winning lineup in both the FanDuel Sunday Million and the DraftKings Millionaire Maker employed Brees stacks with Beckham also in the lineup. Although I unfortunately didn’t take home the grand prize in either contest, I had success with this strategy as well, not only with the Giants and Saints, but with Alshon Jeffery and Stefon Diggs in the Bears-Vikings game.

The bets way to give yourself a decent shot at taking down a GPP is to submit multiple entries, but you’ll go crazy if you try to create a lineup with every single possible combination of players you like that week. Instead, think about employing same-game passing game correlations when deciding how to pair up your QBs, WRs, and TEs.

QUARTERBACK

Tom Brady - FD 9500 DK 8500
Opponent- WAS
Brady leads all QBs in passing yards per game (344.3) and passing TDs per game (2.9). If you add in his two rushing scores, he’s averaging over three total TDs per game. The Redskins aren’t in a position to provide much resistance, as they are a bottom-10 team in terms of defensive passing DVOA and passer rating allowed. New England’s Vegas implied team total is sitting at a whopping 33 points, and Brady has been in on 79 percent of his team’s offensive TDs this season.

Philip Rivers - FD 8600 DK 6900
Opponent- CHI
Averaging 344.1 passing yards per game – only 0.2 less than Brady – Rivers is a solid option against a Bears defense that has allowed the fifth-highest passer rating this season. The overall QB2 on the season, Rivers is an especially good deal on DraftKings, where his price is still $200 below where it opened the season. On FanDuel, it’s $500 higher than where it opened the season.

Ben Roethlisberger - FD 8300 DK 6600
Opponent- OAK
Big Ben’s rusty, interception-laden Week 8 may scare some people off, but the Bengals rank seventh in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed for QBs, plus Roethlisberger was returning from a long layoff, so I wouldn’t put much weight on that game. In 11 career games with Martavis Bryant, Big Ben sports averages of 328 passing yards and 2.2 TDs per game. He’ll face a Raiders defense that permits the second-most passing yards per game in the league and is traveling across the
country for an early kickoff.

Eli Manning - FD 7800 DK 6900
Opponent- TB
Eli’s numbers were inflated by the need to keep up with Drew Brees last week, but don’t make last week’s big game make you feel like you’re chasing points this week. Eli has another plum matchup against a Bucs defense ranked 29th in pass defense DVOA. In three previous matchups with teams ranked 20th or worse in pass defense DVOA (Redskins, 49ers, Saints); Manning has averaged 357 passing yards and 3.7 TDs per game.

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RUNNING RBACK

Devonta Freeman - FD 8900 DK 8000
Opponent- SF
Despite not reaching the end zone in back to back weeks, Freeman still has the highest floor and ceiling at the position. He’s averaging 27 touches per game as a starter, and hasn’t been held under 130 yards even once. Speaking of the end zone, Freeman is likely to return there, as he leads the league in carries inside the opponent’s 10-yard line. The Falcons are 4.5-point road favorites, and should spend a lot of time with the football, as they’re facing a team that is employing Blaine Gabbert at QB and may have to trot out some combination of Kendall Gaskins, Shaun Draughn, and Pierre Thomas at RB.

Todd Gurley - FD 9000 DK 6900
Opponent- MIN
Whereas Freeman makes the better play on FanDuel, where’s he’s priced $100 less than Gurley, Gurley makes for the better play on DraftKings, where he’s $1,000 less than Freeman. Gurley has averaged 24 touches per game as a starter, and has posted a cool 6.1 yards per carry thus far in his young career. The Vikings have improved some on run defense since getting eviscerated by Carlos Hyde in Week 1, but still allow 4.4 yards per carry, tied for eighth-most in the NFL.

DeAngelo Williams - FD 6500 DK 5500
Opponent- OAK
Williams’s Week 9 outlook has one negative: the Raiders 3.6 yard-per-carry average allowed, good for second-best in the NFL. However, there are a bunch of factors that collectively tip the scales in Williams’s favor to return good value. Firstly, despite the strong run defense, the Raiders still rank 16th and 17th in FanDuel and DraftKings points allowed to RBs, respectively. Secondly, Williams saw over 20 touches in both of his games as a starter. And finally, the Steelers are 4.5-point home favorites.

Jeremy Langford - FD 6400 DK 4000
Opponent- SD
While Langford is an unknown commodity in the NFL, multiple scouting reports
have him pegged with a three-down skill set. He’s in line to see significant volume as the Bears’ starting RB this Monday against the Chargers. San Diego ranks dead last in yards per carry allowed (5.0) and rush defense DVOA.

WIDE RECEIVER

Antonio Brown - FD 8700 DK 8100
Opponent- OAK
I already mentioned the Raiders allow the second-most passing yards per game in the league, and they also allow the most completions per game in the league (29.1). This sets up perfectly to buy shares of Brown at his depressed price. His current price tags represent an $800 drop on DraftKings and a $600 drop on FanDuel from when the season began. Brown also has favorable career home splits, where he nearly triples his TD production.

Alshon Jeffery - FD 7900 DK 6700
Opponent- SD
Keep on riding Jeffery at his current price tag, which is down $500 and FanDuel and $1,600 on DraftKings since the season began, despite back to back games with at least eight catches, 100 yards, and a TD. New offensive coordinator is funneling Jeffery the ball, using him similarly to the way he used Demaryius Thomas last season in Denver, when Thomas went over six catches in 75 percent of his games and over 85 yards in 69 percent of his games. Jeffery has accounted for 34 percent of Jay Cutler’s targets and 66 percent of Cutler’s TDs in the three games they’ve played together this season.

Michael Crabtree - FD 5800 DK 4900
Opponent- PIT
Target volume is the most reliable indicator of fantasy production, and Crabtree comes at a huge discount for a player averaging 9.7 targets per game, more than Amari Cooper (8.4). Crabtree also leads the team in red zone targets. The Steelers are in the bottom-half of the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to WRs.

Stevie Johnson - FD 5400 DK 3200
Opponent- CHI
Johnson has the most similar route tree to the injured Keenan Allen, and should be in line for an uptick in opportunity. Allen accounted for 8.4 receptions and 90.6 yards per game. He’s at a very low price point across the industry and makes for nice salary relief in cash games.

 

TIGHT END

Rob Gronkowski - FD 8500 DK 8000
Opponent- WAS
With the Patriots team total above 30 and Gronk accounting for 35 percent of Tom Brady’s TDs this season, Gronk is a top GPP play. He’s topped 90 yards in five of seven games and scored a TD in five of seven games as well. Not that it needs to be
said, but Gronk leads all TEs in receptions per game, yards per game, and TDs per game.

Antonio Gates - FD 6000 DK 4700
Opponent- CHI
The fact that Gates was able to return from an MCL injury last week bodes well for his Week 9 outlook, especially with Keenan Allen on the shelf. Since his Week 5 return, Gates is averaging 7.3 catches for 81 yards and 0.7 TDs per game. He also leads the team by a wide margin in red zone targets since Week 5.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins - FD 5200 DK 2800
Opponent- NYG
While Heath Miller, Ben Watson, and Jacob Tamme are all solid options if Seferian-Jenkins (shoulder) doesn’t return this week, ASJ will have huge upside if he goes. The Giants have allowed the most receptions and yardage in the league to TEs. Jenkins posted a 5-110-2 line in Week 1 in his only full healthy game with Jameis Winston.

 

DEFENSE

New England Patriots
The Patriots don’t come to mind as a strong defense, but they’re in a great spot to return value. Per FantasyLabs, defenses outperform salary-based expectation by 2.12 points (FanDuel scoring) when they are favorites by 10 or more and they have a team total of 30 or more. New England is a 14-point favorite with a team total of 33. Kirk Cousins has thrown multiple interceptions in over half of his games this season.

New York Jets
While the Jets predictably struggled last week (East Coast teams historically perform 20 percent below salary-based expectations when traveling to the west coast, per FantasyLabs), they’re in a prime bounce-back spot this week in a game with an over/under of 40 and the Jaguars team total sitting below 19 points. Blake Bortles has certainly made strides with his downfield passing ability, but still ranks near the bottom of the league in sacks taken (19), interceptions thrown (8), and completion rate (55.7 percent). The Jaguars have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses.

New Orleans Saints
Being able to deploy a defense at near-minimum cost can provide an advantage in tournaments, where it can allow you to roster certain combinations of players that the majority of the field is not able to fit in under the cap. The Saints profile as the strongest inexpensive play of the week in a matchup against a Titans team that
ranks dead last in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses. Historically, fantasy defenses favored by seven or greater have outperformed salary-based expectations by over 25 percent, per FantasyLabs. The Saints are 9.5-point favorites this weekend.

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