Daily Fantasy NFL Football Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftPot - Week 10

Editor's note: Get ready for Raybon's insightful article on NFL's week 10! He's done an amazing job breaking down the top plays of the week, but obviously, he could never include every single great play. If you want point projections for individual players? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft.

I was going to write a detailed analysis of why you shouldn’t ignore RB-WR stacks, or other negative correlations. But in light of the recent industry news, I’ll sum it up quickly: RB-WR and other negatively correlated same-team stacks shouldn’t be avoided in tournaments provided each player is a good value independent of the other. When a RB or WR gains yardage, it keeps the offense on the field and creates a synergistic effect where both players have more opportunities to rack up volume and score TDs, which is what happened with DeAngelo Williams and Antonio Brown in Week 9.

Now, as you probably know, New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman declared Tuesday that daily fantasy sports constitute illegal gambling in the state and ordered DraftKings and FanDuel to stop running games in the state. I’m a New Yorker. Even if you’re not, your state could be next. Please help support daily gamers in New York, and the entire DFS industry, by signing this petition: http://www.fantasysportsforall.com/

Thank you. Hopefully we can all continue to play the game we love.

QUARTERBACKS

Tom Brady - FD 9100 DK 8600
Opponent- NYG
The overall fantasy QB1, Brady travels to the Meadowlands to take on a Giants defense allowing the second-most passing yards per game in the NFL (308). Brady himself is third in the league in passing yards per game (338.6). The Patriots team total is hovering around 31, and Brady has been in on 77 percent of the Patriots offensive touchdowns this season.

Aaron Rodgers - FD 9200 DK 7500
Opponent- DET
With Randall Cobb (shoulder) and Davante Adams (ankle) appearing to be over nagging early-season injuries, now makes a good time to buy in on Rodgers against a Lions defense ranked in the bottom-five in terms of fantasy points per game allowed to QBs. Rodgers’ price is down $1,100 on DraftKings and $500 on FanDuel from when the season began. The Packers have a Vegas implied total of 29.5, and Rodgers has accounted for 83 percent of Packers offensive TDs this season.

Blake Bortles - FD 7800 DK 5600
Opponent- BAL
Quietly a top-10 fantasy QB in 2015, Bortles will square off against a Ravens defense allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game (283.9) and the third-highest QB rating (106.9) in the NFL. Bortles has been remarkably consistent in terms of fantasy, throwing for multiple scores in six of eight games. He averages 274.1 passing yards and over two passing TDs per game this season, with both of his poor fantasy outings coming in predictable situations against Carolina and Buffalo.

Kirk Cousins - FD 6500 DK 5200
Opponent- NO
Those who were expecting some cheap fantasy production due to an inevitable Redskins deficit last week against New England are likely to see that production this week against New Orleans. Whereas the Patriots pass defense is middle-of-the-road, the Saints defense has long swerved off the road and currently resides in a ditch. The Saints defense ranks 32nd in QB Rating (112.6), 31st in TD percentage (7.4), and 30th in passing yards per game (292.2). Despite averaging 19.8 points per game this season (28th in NFL), the Redskins have a Vegas implied team total of nearly 25 points in what’s expected to be a close, high-scoring game.

RUNNINGBACKS

Todd Gurley - FD 9200 DK 7300
Opponent- CHI
Although Gurley’s price has adjusted to his level of production, he’s still worth the cost. Gurley has seen 20 or more touches in his last five games, including at least three receptions in each of his last three games. The Bears are allowing the fourth-most yards per carry (4.7) and the fifth-most rushing yards per game (128.0) in the NFL.

DeAngelo Williams - FD 7600 DK 6500
Opponent- CLE
While expectations certainly shouldn’t be as high without Ben Roethlisberger under center, Williams still has a lot of things working in his favor. He offers a ton of volume at a discount, having received 22 or more touches in each of his three 205 starts. The Browns defense represents a juicy matchup, as they are allowing the most rushing yards per game in the NFL (147.6).

Mark Ingram - FD 7500 DK 6400
Opponent- WAS
In the Saints first game without Khiry Robinson, Ingram was fed 26 touches and played 88 percent of offensive snaps, both season-highs. The Saints are favorites against a Washington team whose run defense has been in free-fall. On the season, the Redskins rank 30th in yards per carry allowed (4.8) and 29th in rushing yards per game allowed (132.5). Over their last four games, it’s gotten even worse, as they’ve allowed 734 yards on 140 carries (5.34 yards per carry) and five TDs on the ground, permitting lines of 27-153-2 (Devonta Freeman), 20-146-1 (Chris Ivory), 19-136 (Doug Martin), and 29-129-1 (LeGarrette Blount) along the way.

Darren McFadden - FD 7000 DK 4900
Opponent- TB
Run DMC is enjoying a late-career resurgence in Dallas, where he’s handled touch totals of 31, 26, and 28 in his last three games, respectively. The Cowboys’ top-flight offensive line and McFadden’s huge workload give him a high floor regardless of matchup, which he proved by amassing over 100 yards from scrimmage in back-to-back games against Seattle and Philadelphia, both of whom are top-seven defenses in terms of fantasy points allowed.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Demaryius Thomas - FD 7900 DK 7400
Opponent- KC
With his price plummeting due to a lack of touchdown production, Thomas is a strong buy in Week 10 against the Chiefs, who have allowed the most fantasy points in the league to WRs. While Peyton Manning’s decline no longer makes Thomas a shoo-in for double-digit TDs each season, the fact that Thomas has only one TD through eight games is more of a case of being on the wrong side variance in a very volatile statistic, than anything else. Two weeks ago, Drew Brees was in the top-three in passing yardage, but outside the top-20 in TDs, and then proceeded to throw ten TDs in his next two games. Thomas is third among WRs in targets per game and has five catches for 50 yards in every game. His price is down $1,700 on DraftKings and $900 on FanDuel from when the season began.

Randall Cobb - FD 7700 DK 6700
Opponent- DET
As with Rodgers, it’s a good time to buy back into Cobb, whose price is down $1,300 on DraftKings and $800 on FanDuel from when the season began. The Lions allow the highest yards-per-attempt figure (8.7) in the league, meaning Rodgers should have an efficient day throwing to his top target Cobb, who is seventh in the NFL in red zone targets.

Allen Robinson - FD 7500 DK 6700
Opponent- BAL
Aside from predictable struggles versus Josh Norman in Week 1 and Bill Belichick (who tends to aggressively scheme to eliminate an offense’s top option), Robinson has been money in the bank this season. He’s caught at least six passes in four straight games, and hasn’t been under 68 receiving yards since Week 1. The Ravens have allowed the most TDs and second-most fantasy points in the NFL to WRs.

Jarvis Landry - FD 7000 DK 6700
Opponent- PHI
Slow receiver Landry get to take on an Eagles defense fresh off allowing a 9-112-2 line to slot receiver Cole Beasley. The Eagles have allowed the third-most fantasy points to WRs this season. Landry averages 9.6 targets per game and is tied for fifth in the league with nine red zone targets.

TIGHT END

Rob Gronkowski - FD 8000 DK 8000
Opponent- NYG
Gronk has been a bit up and down this season, but a matchup against the Giants’ bottom-three pass defense is a plum spot for him. While it’s almost always unnecessary to pay up for the volatile TE position in cash games, Gronk offers tournament-winning upside. The Giants’ weaknesses at linebacker and safety have led to them allowing the most receptions and second-most yards in the NFL to TEs.

Greg Olsen - FD 6300 DK 6300
Opponent- TEN
Olsen leads all TEs in targets and is third in receiving yardage at the position. He’s also one of only four TEs to see double-digit red zone targets so far this season. The Titans have been vulnerable to the TE this season, allowing 8.1 yards per target. They’ve also had three games where they’ve permitted multiple TDs to TEs.

Jordan Reed - FD 5800 DK 4600
Opponent- NO
The aforementioned bump that Vegas oddsmakers anticipate for the Redskins offense going against a porous Saints defense bodes well for Reed. It hasn’t always been sexy, but Reed has five catches and/or a TD in every game this season. Despite missing two games, Reed leads the team in red zone targets. The Saints have allowed the most fantasy points per game in the NFL to TEs.

DEFENSE

St. Louis Rams
The Rams defense takes it up a notch at home, where they have not allowed a TD in their last three games. In four home games this season, the Rams allow 3.1 yards per rush, 5.7 yards per pass, and two touchdowns all year. They are favored by more than a touchdown against a Bears team that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points in the NFL to opposing defenses.

D Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are double-digit home favorites taking on a Texans team that has a Vegas implied total of only 18.3 points. The Texans lead the league in offensive plays per game (74.1), which should allow ample opportunity for Cincinnati to force Houston into mistakes in the passing game.

D Denver Broncos
After a hiccup in Indianapolis, the Broncos return home as seven-point favorites over the Chiefs. The Chiefs have a Vegas team total of under 18 points, which makes sense when considering the Broncos have allowed a total of three touchdowns in three home games this season. The Broncos defense has also shown a ton of return upside – they have return TDs in five of eight games.

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