Daily Fantasy NBA Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 11/18/15

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Our projection system handles the little bits of pricing and projecting differences. That being said, for this opening slate I think you are very much going to be taking a stars and punts approach.

POINT GUARD

Russell Westbrook - FD 11500 DK 12200
Opponent - NOP FD Proj. Pts - 53.24 DK Proj. Pts - 55.01
I must admit, his price is starting to reach a level that is beginning to make me a little hesitant to roster him. But as long as Kevin Durant remains sidelined, Westbrook will always be my pick to produce the highest score, and tonight is no different. He's been on an absolute tear this year, and his usage has reached a ridiculously high point since KD went down. To add icing on the cake, the Pelicans rank 29th in the league defending the PG position, and play an up-tempo pace like the Thunder. With Davis back the a blow-out is less likely, so I like Westbrook to get his minutes and have a monster game.

Note: Davis went down with an injury last night, and if he doesn't play the blow out does become a bit of a concern here.

Ish Smith - FD 5400 DK 5500
Opponent - OKC FD Proj. Pts - 25 DK Proj. Pts - 25.75
It's rare that we recommend two players opposing each other, but if you want to pay up for Westbrook and others, you need to find some cheaper guys who are going to get a ton of minutes. Ish Smith is definitely that guy since Jrue Holliday will likely sit the second game of the Pelican's back to back. When Smith get's the minutes, he normally produces at a high level. In the last 6 games in which he's logged 25+ minutes, he's averaged just under 34 points a game on FanDuel. That kind of production for these prices is outstanding. I know Westbrook is not an ideal matchup, but with the expected fast-paced nature of this game, I fully expect Smith to be one of the best value plays of the night at any position.

Rajon Rondo - FD 7600 DK 8700
Opponent - ATL FD Proj. Pts - 37.8 DK Proj. Pts - 38.5
Dennis Schroder - FD 4800 DK 4900
Opponent - SAC FD Proj. Pts - 29.7 DK Proj. Pts - 31.04
Another group of guys opposing each other, Rondo and Schroder are both very much contingent plays for tonight's slate. Rondo has been a beast as of late, putting up 50+ FanDuel points in 3 of his last 5 games, but could see a big decrease in minutes and usage if Darren Collison comes back from injury. Schroder is an excellent value play given his salary and expected minutes assuming that Jeff Teague sits out another game. If Teague comes back, Schroder likely moves to the bench, severely hurting his value. Keep an eye on the injury report for this game before plugging either of these guys into one of your lineups.

 

SHOOTING GUARD

James Harden - FD 9900 DK 10100
Opponent - POR FD Proj. Pts - 45.62 DK Proj. Pts - 48.42
If you're looking for a big game out of the 2 guard spot tonight, James Harden is your best bet (which isn't much different than most night's, but you get the idea). Don't let his last game scare you off either, as Harden had ripped off 5 straight games with more than 40 FanDuel points prior to that dud he dropped against the Celtics. Portland is a below average team defending guards, and don't really have anyone who can matchup with Harden. Houston is looking a little shaky lately, which is when players like Harden tend to rise up and carry their teams. Call it a less than bold feeling, but I think Harden has a really nice bounce back game tonight.

Monta Ellis - FD 6700 DK 6000
Opponent - PHI FD Proj. Pts - 32.13 DK Proj. Pts - 33.31
A good option on FanDuel and what I consider to be a must start on DraftKings, Ellis has seen a huge increase in minutes and usage since George Hill went down. Hill has already been officially ruled out for tonight's game in Philadelphia, meaning Ellis should continue to see his increased workload. The 76er's have been surprisingly average at defending opposing guards this season, but getting a productive guy who's locked into high 30's- low 40's at these prices is too good to pass up.

Evan Fournier - FD 5700 DK 6500
Opponent - MIN FD Proj. Pts - 28.39 DK Proj. Pts - 31.38
This one makes me slightly nervous because there are a few moving pieces to keep an eye on. Fournier missed the Magic's last game with an illness, but is expected to play tonight from everything that I've seen. The downside here is that Victor Oladipo also might return tonight, which would bring down Fournier's value a good amount. I'm not completely ruling him out if Oladipo plays because he's been getting the minutes regardless, but the usage does go down with less shots to go around. Shooting guard is pretty terrible tonight, and you could do a lot worse than Fournier at these prices.

 

SMALL FORWARD

Paul George - FD 9200 DK 9500
Opponent - PHI FD Proj. Pts - 40.72 DK Proj. Pts - 43.32
Kawhi Leonard - FD 8500 DK 8200
Opponent - DEN FD Proj. Pts - 38.7 DK Proj. Pts - 40.32
Call them option 1 and 1a at SF tonight, both of these guys make such great plays that it's difficult to differentiate between the two. Our projection system likes Kawhi over PG, but it's by the slimmest of margins. Denver and Philadelphia are both average at defending opposing SF's, so there isn't really an advantage one way or the other there. I guess if I had to choose, I would grab PG because I'm a little worried that the Spurs are going to blow out the Nuggets. But honestly you can't go wrong with either guy here.

Al-Farouq Aminu - FD 5600 DK 6000
Opponent - HOU FD Proj. Pts - 26.47 DK Proj. Pts - 27.53
Aminu has been making the best of a bad situation fantasy wise this year, taking advantage of increased minutes on a pretty bad team. He normally has been getting about 34 minutes per game on the season, which is high considering his price tag. The Rockets play at a very fast pace, and are 27th in the league at defending the SF position, making this a nice matchup for Aminu. There's nothing particularly sexy about his game, but the guy does score at a decent clip and rebounds better than most at his position. This is my favorite value play of the night at SF.

Also consider: Andrew Wiggins

 

POWER FORWARD

Terrence Jones - FD 5900 DK 6200
Opponent - POR FD Proj. Pts - 30.8 DK Proj. Pts - 31.5
As his minutes have returned to normal, so has his production. In his last 3 games, Jones has gone over 31 FanDuel points in each game, which makes him a great value at these prices. Portland doesn't really have anyone at the PF spot that scares me, as they have an unestablished rotation that includes two very unproven players in Vonleh and Alexander. While their defensive numbers on the year haven't been bad, I think Jones has a matchup that he can really take advantage of here. He's my favorite PF play tonight from a PPD standpoint.

Nerlens Noel - FD 7200 DK 6900
Opponent - IND FD Proj. Pts - 35.49 DK Proj. Pts - 36.07
Noel is the definition of a stat-sheet stuffer, averaging nearly a double-double in points and rebounds, and nearly about 3 blocks and steals combined per game. I was worried that playing alongside Okafor would seriously limit his value, but he's remained a fairly consistent fantasy option when healthy. The Pacers really struggle defending the interior, and Noel also has a lot of upside because of his ability to rebound and defend his position at an elite level. I'd be lying if I said I was expecting a monster game here, but he is a guy that you can plug into your lineup and get above average production.

Thaddeus Young - FD 5800 DK 6100
Opponent - CHA FD Proj. Pts - 28.57 DK Proj. Pts - 29.43
This guy should honestly be priced about 1000 more or higher given his level of production, but we're not complaining. Now that the Net's lineup has begun to stabilize, Young has been getting his 30+ minutes more regularly, leading to more productive outings. When he get's his 30 minutes a game, he's almost a lock to put up 30 FanDuel points, as evidenced by his last 10 games or so. He's one of the better guys in the league from a PPM standpoint, and on a night where PF is slim, definitely give Young a look if you need some salary relief.

Also consider: Ryan Anderson if Anthony Davis doesn't play tonight.

 

CENTER

Jahlil Okafor - FD 6700 DK 7200
Opponent - IND FD Proj. Pts - 36.96 DK Proj. Pts - 37.52
We're really big on Philly's front court tonight and with good reason. Indiana is the 29th ranked team at defending opposing center's and have struggled in general against opposing bigs. Okafor has been better than advertised in his rookie campaign, putting up 19, 8 and almost 2 blocks per game. The 76er's have shown that they're going to give him big minutes regardless of how the game is playing out, making him a relatively safe play. His price hasn't fully adjusted to his output just yet, and I would keep taking advantage of these prices before they rise.

Karl-Anthony Towns - FD 6800 DK 7300
Opponent - ORL FD Proj. Pts - 34.85 DK Proj. Pts - 35.39
Another rookie who has had a strong rookie season so far is Towns, who has been a large part of the Timberwolves revival this season. With a stat line of 15, 10 and over 2 blocks per game, Towns has actually been better than most expected him to be after Minnesota took him number 1 overall. Orlando is an average team defensively on the inside, but I really like this matchup for Towns because of his mobility compared to Vucevic. I think his quickness will give him a serious edge in this matchup, and while I don't like him as much as Okafor, he could be an off-beat play that pays off.

DeMarcus Cousins - FD 10700 DK 10300
Opponent - ATL FD Proj. Pts - 52.63 DK Proj. Pts - 53.34
It would be disrespectful to not even mention a guy who has put up back to back 55+ FanDuel scoring outputs, so here's an obligatory Boogie mention. The price is really starting to get up there for Demarcus, and I'm not sure if I would pay much more than where he's priced at right now. But if you can find a way to work him into your lineup, it could certainly pay-off big time. The Hawks rank in the bottom third of the league at defending the center position, and with Willy Cauley-Stein 's health up in the air, Cousins' could be in line for even bigger minutes. There are enough value plays on tonight's slate that I think you could fit Cousins and Westbrook into your lineup fairly comfortably if you choose to go that route.

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