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Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

11/21/2015
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 11/21/15

Big Friday slate, ya'll! I'm sweating down the smallest slate ever while writing these picks - a blessing and a curse. Only one game at a time... but I feel like I have every player on both sides. Oh boy. Let's see if I can do this.

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POINT GUARD

There are a lot of if's at this position as of right now. I'll break some of them down here. If Jeff Teague sits again then Dennis Schroder instantly becomes a near must start at his prices. Additionally, if Bradley Beal is out again then Garrett Temple makes a cheap plug-and-play getting about thirty minutes from the shooting guard position. In many ways I'm hoping one of these cheaper options works out because the next level of points/$ plays aren't enticing even in the slightest. I'll write up a couple of them, but understand that the players listed above represent better opportunity if their situations work out.

Tony Parker - FD 5200 DK 4700
Opponent - MEM FD Proj. Pts - 20.59 DK Proj. Pts - 21.22
He's seen an uptick in his minutes of late which has lead to some increased productivity. I mostly like the price on Parker if the guys above don't get their opportunity. Memphis isn't a good matchup mostly because their pace effects the opponent's volume. But Parker's salaries have high floors built in. Always a risk to get Pop'd on a certain night, but Parker's been getting up about 10 shots a game in the short term and getting the assist game going. Coming cheap enough to seriously consider.

If none of the other cheap options work out then you need to seriously consider John Wall

SHOOTING GUARD

James Harden - FD 10300 DK 10200
Opponent - NYK FD Proj. Pts - 43.56 DK Proj. Pts - 46.2
Dwight won't play in the second half of the back-to-back which does help Harden's expectation in this one. When Howard is on the court, Harden has a 30 usage over the last year plus. When Dwight is off, that number bumps to 34. The Rockets are without Kevin McHale and it appears Bickerstaff is willing to run Harden for long stretches. That makes sense considering he's their best player and the Rockets need to win quick. The Knicks have been okay against shooting guards this season, but I think Harden is on the court a ton in this one and the game should be close.

Kyle Korver - FD 4800 DK 4500
Opponent - CLE FD Proj. Pts - 20.35 DK Proj. Pts - 23.66
I feel like I'm going to keep saying this over and over during this picks' article, but this is a very tough night. Some of the pricing has cleaned up around the sites and there just isn't a ton of value on this slate (barring some of the injury news I mentioned in the point guard piece above). Korver is a shooting guard coming on the cheap who should see his minutes in this one. I thought he'd see more of a shot bump without Teague and Baze in the lineup. That played out the first game, but his last against the Kings was more of the no-shooting same for Kyle. I'm willing to take the risk here considering the salaries, but he has a low ceiling.

Consider Monta Ellis if George Hill sits again.

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SMALL FORWARD

Paul George - FD 9500 DK 9700
Opponent - MIL FD Proj. Pts - 42.5 DK Proj. Pts - 45.02
He put on a show the other night against the Sixers. Of course many players are able to put together fantastic lines against the Sixers so that, in and of itself, isn't necessarily a great accomplishment. But George has been stepping back into the superstar role with aplomb and I can see it continuing tonight. Milwaukee ranks in the bottom third of the league in defending small forwards leaving room for PG to operate. I like him even more if George Hill is out as PG's usage bumps a little in that situation.

Marcus Morris - FD 6000 DK 6100
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 28.37 DK Proj. Pts - 31.02
The Pistons' minutes aren't necessarily the safest in the world. But Morris is one of the guys somewhat locked into his run. He struggled in a few of the games leading into last night, but put together a solid enough line all things considered. Washington plays at the fastest pace in the league and rank dead last in defending small forwards this season by a not-so-healthy margin. This game should stay close and Morris has one of the higher floors in his price range among all positions.

Consider Otto Porter if Bradley Beal is out again tonight

POWER FORWARD

Terrence Jones - FD 5700 DK 5700
Opponent - NYK FD Proj. Pts - 29.82 DK Proj. Pts - 30.47
It can be frustrating rostering this guy. He has so much freaking upside, but the Rockets are such a mess right now that you can't trust much about their team. But here's the good news on Jones: yesterday he saw about 30 minutes and got up 12 shots. I'll take that kind of use all day at these prices on this slate. He can fill it up in the right matchup and has the athleticism to stretch things some. For these tags I'm willing to play him just about everywhere considering the small-ish slate.

Kris Humphries - FD 4000 DK 4000
Opponent - DET FD Proj. Pts - 20.02 DK Proj. Pts - 20.87
Kristaps Porzingis - FD 6000 DK 6300
Opponent - HOU FD Proj. Pts - 26.91 DK Proj. Pts - 27.97
Minutes seem to be a particular issue this season and these two guys are good examples. It can be said for pretty much anyone with any kind of offensive game in the NBA, but I'll reiterate for these two guys. When either one is able to snag above about 26 minutes then they pay these prices easily. It's just that the run remains so variable and it's very tough to trust how much playing time they'll see even coming from the starting lineups. I can see going with either one in a cash game honestly at their price points. And both can get it done in the rebounding and scoring columns. But you will tilt when they ride the bench for long stretches.

 

CENTER

Jahlil Okafor - FD 6500 DK 6900
Opponent - MIA FD Proj. Pts - 30.69 DK Proj. Pts - 31.09
We are calling his number on a lot of nights, but I think it makes sense. The price really hasn't moved and his minutes appear safe independent of whether the Sixers get blown out (typical) or whether they stick around (rare). He's had some struggles in the last two games against Charlotte and Indiana. Miami is solid against centers this season, but I still think the price on Okafor warrants a play. Would be nice if they rotated Noel more into the second unit to start, but Jahlil is locked into the run almost no matter what.

Hassan Whiteside - FD 8500 DK 8300
Opponent - PHI FD Proj. Pts - 39.47 DK Proj. Pts - 40.08
Can very much see a scenario in which he goes something like 20-17 in this game. Unfortunately I can just as easily picture a scenario in which he gets in foul trouble or finds some other way to get those minutes trimmed. Whiteside isn't a safe play considering his pricing, though there's no denying the upside. He is one of those guys you can hate not having in your lineup when you watch him blocking the building and rocking dunks off pick and rolls. But he just doesn't have the minutes' safety.

Consider Ian Mahimni, especially on DraftKings

 

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2 Visitor Comments

  1. I keep on requesting the E Books on Football and Basketball but have yet to see them . Please fix this for me thanks…….

  2. Hey Billy – did you sign up for our newsletter with a working email? That should do the trick for you!

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