Daily Fantasy NFL Football Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftPot - Week 12

Editor's note: Get ready for Raybon's insightful article on NFL's Week 12! He's done an amazing job breaking down the top plays of the week, but obviously, he could never include every single great play. If you want point projections for individual players? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get started with our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftpot.

The Thanksgiving holiday provides an opportune time to discuss strategy on small slates. First of all, if you’re playing cash games on a small slate, know that there will be increased variance in your results due to such a small player pool. GPPs tend to be a much better contest type to play in a small slate. Many entrants treat small slate GPPs like cash games, playing mostly chalk plays, resulting in a ton of overlap.

So how do you get an edge in small slate GPPs?

• Focus on low risk/high reward differentiation plays: You know you need to be contrarian somehow, but simply fading the chalk across the board isn’t going to get you anywhere. Instead, focus on the positions that require one roster slot. If you successfully hit on a non-chalk play here, you get points that are impossible to make up, and there are only six choices for you to choose from.
• Use Larger Stacks: With only three games on the slate, it’s very possible that one game has significantly more fantasy production than the other two. Stacking entire offenses and entire games is a way to gain a differentiated lineup.
• Ignore Negative Correlation: Many entrants will hesitate to utilize negatively correlated pairings, or even players that are positively correlated but are perceived to cut into each other’s production (i.e. QB-RB). However, with limited options at your disposal, it’s fine to use negatively correlated pairings if you think it will enable you to outscore the field. Using these pairings is another way to get a differentiated lineup without playing sub-optimal players just to be contrarian.

With that, I wish you and yours a Happy Thanksgiving. Let’s get into this week’s plays.

 

QUARTERBACKS

Carson Palmer - FD 8100 DK 7100
Opponent- SF
Ranked second in DraftKings points per game and third in FanDuel points per game, Palmer will face a 49ers defense ranked 31st in pass defense DVOA. Palmer leads the NFL in TD passes per game (2.7) and yards per attempt (9.0), and is fifth in passing yards per game (306.6). The 49ers allow 1.7 TDs per game (16th), 8.3 yards per attempt (30th) and 277.8 passing yards per game (27th). The Cardinals have been installed with a robust Vegas implied total of 27.

Cam Newton - FD 8900 DK 7100
Opponent- DAL Thursday
Like Palmer, Newton has been a top-three fantasy QB this season. A big part of Newton’s success comes from how involved he is in the offense. His per-game averages currently sit at 30 pass attempts for 228 yards and 8.6 rushes for 38.2 yards. In addition, he accounts for 84 percent of Carolina’s offensive TDs, with averages of 2.0 passing and 0.6 rushing TDs per game. The Cowboys defense ranks 18th in pass defense DVOA and 25th in rush defense DVOA.

Brian Hoyer - FD 7100 DK 5000
Opponent- NO
Coming off of a missed game due to a concussion, Hoyer finds himself in a beautiful matchup against a Saints defense that has allowed nine of the ten QBs they have faced to score 20 fantasy points or more. The Saints have allowed multiple passing TDs in eight of ten games and 300 yards passing in seven of ten games. Despite an average of 20.8 points per game on the season, Vegas has set the Texans team total at a healthy 26 points. Hoyer has proven he can put up numbers already this season, throwing for three TDs twice and multiple TDs in five of seven appearances.

Josh McCown - FD 6300 DK 5000
Opponent- BAL
Despite being forced from two games due to injury, McCown averages 271 passing yards per game and has failed to throw multiple TDs in only two of his seven starts. McCown is coming back at the right time: only the Saints have given up more fantasy points per game to QBs than the Ravens. Baltimore ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed a 19:4 TD:INT ratio this season.

 

RUNNING BACKS

Jonathan Stewart - FD 7100 DK 5200
Opponent- DAL Thursday
Having now carried the ball 20 or more times in six straight games, Stewart will face a Dallas defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points in the NFL to RBs. Whereas TDs were once a problem for Stewart due to the presence of Cam Newton around the goal line, J-Stew quietly leads the NFL in carries inside the 5-yard line since Week 5. Stewart’s combination of a consistent workload and bountiful scoring opportunities make him extremely valuable at his price point.

Thomas Rawls - FD 6300 DK 4500
Opponent- PIT
Fresh of a 33-touch, 255-yard, two-TD domination of the 49ers, Rawls get will get another start this week against the Steelers. In the four games he has received a significant workload, Rawls averages 22.5 touches for 143.8 total yards and 0.75 total TDs. The Seahawks are home favorites, so game script should allow Rawls to thrive on sheer volume despite a matchup with a stingy Steelers run defense that has allowed only 3.8 yards per carry this season.

T.J. Yeldon - FD 6500 DK 4800
Opponent- SD
Yeldon averages 19.3 touches per game and will get a crack at a Chargers defense that allows the most fantasy points per game in the NFL to RBs. San Diego ranks last in the NFL in both yards per carry allowed (4.9) and rush defense DVOA. This game will be a rare occasion when game script projects to favor Yeldon, as the Jaguars are favorites at home by a comfortable 4.5-point margin.

Javorius Allen - FD 6300 DK 4600
Opponent- CLE
Stepping into a workhorse role for the injured Justin Forsett, Allen will immediately get dealt an exploitable matchup against a Browns defense that allows the most rushing yards per game in the NFL (138.6) and ranks 29th in run defense DVOA. With Matt Schaub set to make his first start, the Ravens are likely to try to keep the pressure off their new signal caller by exploiting Cleveland’s weakness in defending the run. Coming on in relief of Forsett, Allen handled 27 touches last week, including five receptions.

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WIDE RECEIVERS

DeAndre Hopkins - FD 9400 DK 9100
Opponent- NO
The fantasy WR2 on the season, Hopkins will face a Saints defense that ranks 31st in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (293.9) and 32nd in the NFL in passing TDs allowed per game (2.7). Hopkins ranks second in the NFL in receiving TDs per game (0.9) and third in receiving yards per game (104.5). I mentioned earlier the teams have a Vegas implied team total of 26 points; that bodes well for Hopkins because he has accounted for 38 percent of Houston’s offensive TDs this season.

Julio Jones - FD 9300 DK 9400
Opponent- MIN
Jones leads the NFL in receptions per game (8.9) and receiving yards per game (118.9), and the Vikings don’t have anyone that can cover him. In coverage, Jones will likely see a lot of Xavier Rhodes, who has graded out as one of PFF’s worst cornerbacks this season.

Calvin Johnson - FD 8200 DK 7200
Opponent- PHI Thursday
Johnson should eat against an Eagles defense that has allowed the most DraftKings points and second-most FanDuel points per game to WRs this season. Flying somewhat under the radar, Johnson sports averages of 9.6 targets, 5.9 receptions, and 82.8 yards per game. The only lackluster stat in Johnson’s ledger is his 0.3 TD per game average, but that could improve this week: only the Ravens (16) have
allowed more TDs to WRs than the Eagles (15) this season.

Larry Fitzgerald - FD 7400 DK 7400
Opponent- SF
Ranked fifth in the NFL with 7.3 receptions per game and sixth in the NFL with 92.6 receiving yards per game, Fitzgerald will take on a 49ers defense that has been generous to opposing WRs. San Francisco has allowed the sixth-most and seventh-most fantasy points per game to WRs on FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively. Averaging 9.8 targets per game, Fitzgerald should get ample opportunity against a 49ers team ranked 30th in yards per target allowed (8.3).

 

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TIGHT END

Greg Olsen - FD 6400 DK 6200
Opponent- DAL Thursday
The top option at his position on the Thanksgiving slate, Olsen ranks second among TEs with 8.3 targets and 71.8 yards per game. He’s in the top-10 in the league in red zone targets (13) and red zone target market share (28.9). With the Panthers lacking receiving options on the perimeter, Olsen can be counted on to remain consistently involved in the Panthers offense.

Delanie Walker - FD 6100 DK 5400
Opponent- OAK
No TE has more receptions (53) than Walker this year, and he’s posted that total despite missing one game, good for an average of 5.9 receptions in games played. The Raiders have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to TEs this season. Oakland has also allowed the most TDs to TEs in the NFL, at one per game.

Jordan Reed - FD 5800 DK 5100
Opponent- NYG
Reed (MCL sprain) was able to finish last week’s game and is likely to play against the Giants, who allow the most receptions (6.5) and yards (81.5) per game I the league to TEs. Reed dropped a 6-96 line on the Giants when the two teams met in Week 3. He has five catches and/or a TD in every game he has played this season.

 

DEFENSE

Cincinnati Bengals
Favorites by more than a touchdown at home, Cincinnati’s fantasy defense should be able to produce against a Rams offense that has allowed the sixth-most and seventh-most fantasy points per game to defenses on FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively.
The Rams offensive line has struggled, and now they are being forced to start a QB they just benched in Nick Foles. Their Vegas implied team total is only 17.3 points.

Kansas City Chiefs
Sporting a much-improved defense as of late, the Chiefs are 3.5-point home favorites against Buffalo. The Bills’ Vegas implied team total is below 19 points. After adjusting for strength of schedule, Buffalo ranks 24th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses. The Chiefs have not allowed more than 13 points over their last four games and have not allowed more than 18 points over their last six games.

Green Bay Packers - Thursday
In a slate with two games with points spreads at one point or less, the Packers stand out as seven-point home favorites. At 20.5, the Bears have the lowest Vegas implied team total on the Thanksgiving slate, while the Packers have the highest at 27.5. The Packers being projected to have offensive success bodes well for their fantasy defense, as it would force the Bears to call passing plays, which presents the opportunity for sacks and interceptions.

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