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Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

12/02/2015
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 12/2/15

After James got much love on his opening blurb yesterday, I'm worried about a little performance anxiety here. Like a shooter who has too long to look at the wide open corner three, I'm concerned about letting everyone down with a brick. And yet I jack one up anyway. Today's an interesting one in the NBA with a ton of cheap guys looking at the potential for big minutes and the Sixers starting their first chance at a two game winning streak. Does this mean the Warriors stop their run as well seeing as how their fate is completely unrelated to Philly? Big Wednesday indeed.

Today is going to be a stars and scrubs approach almost for certain. There are simply too many cheap dudes out there and actually the bigger issue seems to be a lack of big money talent I feel totally comfortable putting big money in on.

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POINT GUARD

Isaiah Canaan - FD 4400 DK 5400
Opponent - NYK FD Proj. Pts - 22.09 DK Proj. Pts - 25.29
A much better deal on FanDuel than on DraftKings, but probably still in play there all things considered. Canaan is one of those decent minutes-limited upside guys because if he isn't scoring then you are in for a whole lot of nothing happening on the court. He can hit the three and isn't afraid to take them as he's averaging about eight three point attempts a game over the short term. That's a ton and you can catch him on the right now. For the price on FanDuel I like some of the upside as long as he sticks in the starting lineup which is no sure thing with the Sixers.

Patrick Beverley - FD 3700 DK 4100
Opponent - NOP FD Proj. Pts - 21.51 DK Proj. Pts - 24.47
He's rather quietly entered the starting lineup for the mess that are the Rockets and been really good for these prices. Now that Lawson is completely out of favor with the organization, Beverley is back into the starting role and averaging just enough production to warrant a rather safe play at his salaries. One thing I like about him is that he doesn't need one or two specific outcomes to hit value. He does (very) little bits of everything that accumulates to enough. I'm completely fine running him in cash games and he's one of the top points/$ plays in the system. Won't win you a big tournament, but has a higher floor with these minutes.

John Wall - FD 8100 DK 8000
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 34.53 DK Proj. Pts - 35.62
I'm not a big fan of some of the more expensive options at point guard tonight, though if you were going to spend somewhere Wall looks to have a bunch of upside if the Lakers can hang in this one at all. He obliterated the Cavs last night and Los Angeles is the worst in the league at defending the opposing point guard. The Wiz are projected for one of the highest totals on the night, but the blowout is a factor here.

Consider Jerryd Bayless if he's drawing the start again, but the Bucks are a weird team to figure out

SHOOTING GUARD

James Harden - FD 10800 DK 10300
Opponent - NOP FD Proj. Pts - 47.28 DK Proj. Pts - 50.08
The Rockets are a real hard team to watch play. Part of that is they have no real offensive plan to speak of (or that's easily discernible) beyond "Give someone the ball in an iso, everyone else stand around, player with ball forces up semi-to-totally terrible shot. The it's Harden taking most of the shots can give him a high floor, though it isn't pretty to watch. They made a miracle comeback against the Pistons on Monday night which pulled his game out of the dregs and into an elite final score. A lot went right for the Rockets to make this happen. Because of the plethora of cheap plays, Harden will probably be a highly-owned player on this slate and he does present value at a weaker position.

O.J. Mayo - FD 3800 DK 4600
Opponent - SAS FD Proj. Pts - 19.25 DK Proj. Pts - 20.88
He was a big percentage play on Monday night when stuck in the starting lineup for the second game in a row. While not terrible, he was mildly disappointing considering he ran out there for more than thirty minutes. Mayo falls in that class of guys who can just simply disappear on the court for long stretches. The price is cheap enough you should take another shot if he's with the first team, but be warned that Jason Kidd rolls the hot hand the Bucks play a deep rotation.

Jimmy Butler - FD 8300 DK 7700
Opponent - DEN FD Proj. Pts - 36.8 DK Proj. Pts - 38.29
He's back up to Jimmy Minutes status, but the production hasn't been there in the short term. Butler just isn't getting up the requisite number of shots he needs to hit value. There are a lot of mouths to feed on the Bulls, but Denver is the kind of team shooting guards take advantage of. They are one of the worst teams in the league against the position and Jimmy could be a sneaky off board play.

Strongly consider Bradley Beal but I'm spooked by the blowout and the back-to-back on him

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SMALL FORWARD

Robert Covington - FD 6400 DK 7200
Opponent - NYK FD Proj. Pts - 29.35 DK Proj. Pts - 31.97
The price keeps climbing and he's still very much in play. Covington is shooting the lights out from three over the last three games which surely isn't sustainable over the long term. He's 13-24 from beyond the arc over the last three games. It stands to reason that he doesn't do that going forward. But Covington clearly doesn't need just the three to hit value. He's a defensive animal even with the zero steals against the Lakers last night (bum). In the starting five and playing minutes, the Sixers will look to start that two game winning streak tonight and I like Covington in that middle tier.

Marcus Morris - FD 5800 DK 5900
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 27 DK Proj. Pts - 29.33
I know it's hard to trust the guy because he seems to under perform on a consistent basis. But Morris' shooting woes are part of the reason behind his price decline. This season he is shooting 39% from the field while for his career the number is more like 43%. And the 3-point shooting's been the bigger issue as he's only 25% from long range (down from a career 35% mark). This isn't to say he's due, but there is a chance he's running bad from beyond the arc. The shot attempts are still very much there and so are the minutes. I like him in what should be a higher scoring game.

Consider Nic Batum who stands to see a slight usage bump with Jefferson hurt.

POWER FORWARD

Anthony Davis - FD 10800 DK 10700
Opponent - HOU FD Proj. Pts - 50.29 DK Proj. Pts - 51.12
The Pelicans are an interesting team right now. On the one hand, they seemingly improve with Tyreke Evans back on the court. On the flip side, Evans is a higher usage guy who can trend to ball dominant. He and Brow have proven they can co-exist from a fantasy perspective in the past. But predicting overall performance is tough. I'm tempted to say the prices on Davis make him a must play independent of other players on the court and I'll be firing away on the guy because you can easily afford him and why not? The Rockets are among the worst teams in the league at defending the four and I don't expect a whole lot of defense in this one. It's hard to trust a lot of the other Pelicans because of the minutes, but Brow is good to go.

Kristaps Porzingis - FD 7200 DK 7900
Opponent - PHI FD Proj. Pts - 37.23 DK Proj. Pts - 38.61
Zinger! He just keeps on the crushing tour and even with the massive price hike over the last couple of weeks, I don't know why you'd start going away from the dude now. He's effective with or without Melo and Anthony doesn't seem to have an issue deferring some more of the offense this season. Porzingis has the range to step out from deep and is also a hawk on the glass averaging a 14/9 with a couple of blocks per game this season. Philly might be coming off a win, but they still blow. This is a great spot for Kristaps.

Marvin Williams - FD 5000 DK 5700
Opponent - GSW FD Proj. Pts - 24.8 DK Proj. Pts - 26.89
Cody Zeller - FD 3600 DK 3800
Opponent - GSW FD Proj. Pts - 20.09 DK Proj. Pts - 20.41
With Al Jefferson on the shelf for the foreseeable future, Charlotte will need big men to log minutes. While at different price points, both Williams and Zeller should stand to see more run. They aren't massive underdogs to Golden State which surprised me a little and both could be out there enough to hit value. I tend to think Williams is a little safer while Zeller is more the speculative upside play.

Strongly consider Ryan Anderson and Jerami Grant

 

CENTER

Alex Len - FD 3500 DK 3300
Opponent - DET FD Proj. Pts - 22.66 DK Proj. Pts - 23.1
When Tyson Chandler was ruled out Len shot to the top of our system's points/$ plays last night. And boy did he pay. Dude rolled a 13/14 line with 5 combined steals and blocks. He'll get the start again tonight though draws a much tougher matchup against Detroit. It's unrealistic to expect a repeat performance from Len, but coming in at around 30 minutes would make him a near must in 50/50's. He's basically free and doesn't have much in the way of competition out of center down the Phoenix bench. This one is nearly a set it and forget it play.

Bismack Biyombo - FD 3900 DK 4900
Opponent - ATL FD Proj. Pts - 26.13 DK Proj. Pts - 26.7
Biyombo is also cheap, but doesn't have the scoring ability of Len. In fact, it doesn't appear Bismack has the scoring ability of really anyone else in the league. It ain't easy to get out on a basketball court for thirty minutes in a game and not score. But Biyombo's done it. Toronto, like Phoenix, is short-handed in the big man area, meaning Biyombo's minutes are safe enough. But the lack of scoring limits the ceiling.

Clint Capela - FD 4900 DK 5500
Opponent - NOP FD Proj. Pts - 27.28 DK Proj. Pts - 27.73
On a per minute basis, this guy is a beast. The problem is the minutes. The Rockets tend to go with rotations that are working in the moment meaning you can never trust the run beyond Harden. But if Capela is drawing another start then he's cheap enough to take the risk on. Has a higher ceiling that Biyombo, but could end up in a minutes crunch.
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4 Visitor Comments

  1. We read yours also. Keep up the good work.

  2. I give the blurb a 4/10. Thanks for the effort.

    James

  3. James got much love but Love let James down last night and crushed my lineups. See what I did there…..I’ll be here all week….try the veal.

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