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Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

12/04/2015
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 12/4/15

A smaller Friday than usual, but that's fine by us. We don't mind even a little bit. The decisions will be a little closer, but there's plenty of value to whet your whistle.
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POINT GUARD

John Wall - FD 9000 DK 8300
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 41.5 DK Proj. Pts - 42.84
If you believe these recent minutes are going to be the norm then Wall's close to a must play on this slate. He is going to be in one of the higher projected points game of the night in a flow that will really benefit his style. He's gone beast mode over the last couple and the price hasn't caught up with how much run he's seen. I don't know if that kind of volume will continue, but the Wizards should be motivated to pull themselves out of the early season whole they dug in the standings. Phoenix is one of the worst teams in the league against the opposing point guard which makes sense considering their pace. Wall should have a high floor in this one.

Tyreke Evans - FD 7500 DK 6800
Opponent - CLE FD Proj. Pts - 33.44 DK Proj. Pts - 34.42
He's come back from the injury and barely missed a step. The Pelicans have unleashed him out of the gate and Evans appears fully recovered. He's played about thirty minutes in each of the first two games and the minutes management is enough that he's in play coming out of the starting lineup. What I like about Tyreke is he doesn't rely on one particular stat to hit value. He's a well-rounded fantasy guy, scoring, rebounding and assisting his way to production as long as the minutes are there. Cleveland is a good defensive team, but Evans' price hasn't caught up to his role in the offense.

Consider Deron Williams

SHOOTING GUARD

Bradley Beal - FD 7100 DK 6900
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 29.03 DK Proj. Pts - 31.37
He's back to playing big minutes because A: the Wizards desperately need his scoring desperately and B: they haven't learned their lesson about what happens to this dude when he plays big minutes night after night (he gets hurt). Alas, Washington's choices are our gains in that Beal is one of the safer plays on the slate. This should be a fast-paced game between the first and third fastest teams in the league. Beal's shot a lot a bit of horrible from beyond the arc over the last two games. Look for him to bounce back in this one.

James Harden - FD 10800 DK 10500
Opponent - DAL FD Proj. Pts - 46.66 DK Proj. Pts - 49.31
Few other players toy with your emotions like Mr. James Harden. He's been in the habit of starting games very slow only to turn it on in the second half and climb his way to elite level points. But it comes at the expense of driving you crazy. It doesn't help that the Rockets are a brutal team to watch play. Their offense is can trend to ball-stopping, ISO play with ill-advised shots coming from all over the place. But I'm still playing Harden as long as he's the engine getting the scoring done. He's come out and said he can't keep playing these huge minutes, but then he's out there for close to 40 again. I'll assume he does it again tonight.

Consider Kyle Korver against the Lakers

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SMALL FORWARD

LeBron James - FD 10000 DK 10000
Opponent - NOP FD Proj. Pts - 44.37 DK Proj. Pts - 46.2
He's so freaking consistent it's scary. Lebron's last seven games have seen his FD fantasy points no lower than 41.2 and no higher than 45.1. Dude rarely deviates from his mean. It makes him a fantastic cash game play because you can seemingly lock in his floor, but at the same time it's difficult to win a big tournament with him because he's just not taking games over and hitting the stratosphere. Good matchup against the Pelicans and I like him in 50/50 games from the big money.

Marcus Morris - FD 6200 DK 6100
Opponent - MIL FD Proj. Pts - 26.81 DK Proj. Pts - 29.09
Wrote him up the other night saying he was struggling so much from beyond the arc and thought he might be a candidate to break out. He did in a big way. Morris went off against the Suns with a 24/14 line and was one of the top fantasy scorers on the night. I don't think he has the same kind of upside against the Bucks, but the minutes make him appear safer than others in his price range.

Jared Dudley - FD 3600 DK 3800
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 19.96 DK Proj. Pts - 21.94
Oof, I know, I know. The listing of Dudley here is more about how rough small forward is than any real confidence in the guy. Though starting and playing big minutes for the Wiz, he isn't doing a ton. More of a "cheap and playing" value than a guy who'll crush the box score.

POWER FORWARD

Kristaps Porzingis - FD 7300 DK 8100
Opponent - BKN FD Proj. Pts - 35.26 DK Proj. Pts - 36.46
Getting to be we write him up just about every time he plays and every time he plays dude goes out there and does a little bit of everything. If he plays minutes in the mid thirties then his profile makes him such a solid cash game play. Ultimately the pace at which he's blocking shots may not be sustainable. But between those and his ability to double double on any given night, well you've got a high floor. Brooklyn is one of the best teams in the league at defending opposing power forwards. But I don't love a ton about the position tonight.

Thaddeus Young - FD 6600 DK 7100
Opponent - NYK FD Proj. Pts - 31.26 DK Proj. Pts - 32.38
He's coming off just a horrible shooting game against the Suns on Tuesday and it was one of his worst games of the season. That's fine though in that it keeps his price still in middle tier and I like his upside quite a bit against the Knicks tonight. Now New York isn't an ideal matchup. Porzingis has helped them defend the power forward well. But I'm all about Thad's price and minutes. He's a better deal on FanDuel for sure. I may avoid him on DraftKings. But this guy put up about a 16/9 over the last month while throwing in more than a steal per in that stretch. Solid price and minutes are locked in.

Jon Leuer - FD 4000 DK 4100
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 21.38 DK Proj. Pts - 21.95
Mirza Teletovic - FD 4100 DK 3600
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 21.06 DK Proj. Pts - 23.78
There are the two guys in play if Markieff Morris were to sit out again tonight. Both played huge minutes the other night against Detroit and both paid these prices easily. Check in on Markieff prior to game time, but if either sees these kind of minutes again then you need to have some exposure.

CENTER

Alex Len - FD 3900 DK 3800
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 25.02 DK Proj. Pts - 25.5
He got in foul trouble early against Drummond and it spelled the end of Len's minutes. I'm not overly dissuaded and think he bounces back tonight as long as he's in the starting lineup again. Len is simply too cheap for a guy in the starting lineup and has the game that works well for fantasy purposes. He scores, rebounds and blocks enough shots to keep the floor high as long as he gets the run. Sure I'm a little worried about how much he rode pine last one, but again foul trouble crushed him.

Al Horford - FD 6900 DK 6700
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 32.73 DK Proj. Pts - 33.33
The Hawks share the love quite a bit, so it's tough to hone in on their value from night-to-night. Horford has become more of a stretch five this season, playing away from the basket and jacking up way more threes. That's made his nightly rebounding numbers a bit all over the place. But the Lakers are one of the worst teams in the league against the opposing center and Horford's price won't kill you.

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