Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 12/6/15

Happy Sunday! I'm sitting here sweating the Saturday night lineups while also trying to parse NFL news and avoid trying to get out my Donatas Motiejunas voodoo doll and sticking it with a hot poker. Since I imagine you're not psychic, I'm upset with him for flying off of a Boogie elbow like Cousins was a superhero and getting him pulled early in the 1st quarter. Pardon me if these picks seem extra grumpy. It's not you. It's not personal. I love you. You know? Okay, I should probably just get to the picks.

If you want to grab a free trial of the winning projections that inform each and every one of these picks, check out our lineup builder and Google Chrome extension that auto-populates your lineups into FanDuel and DraftKings. While the seasons overlap, you'll get access to our tools for the NBA, NFL, and NHL! Get started for free by clicking the button below.
111

First time with NBA? Be sure to read our free NBA Ebook on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.

POINT GUARD

Reggie Jackson - FD 7900 DK 7700
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 37.03 DK Proj. Pts - 38.54
Jackson's going to be a huge start in 50/50s and double-ups tonight, and for good reason. His yearly fantasy points per game aren't exceptional (32), but that's based on him playing 31 minutes a game. Recently he's been playing mid-high thirties in minutes. He's also just handling the ball more, hoisting 18 shots a game in his last 4 contests and averaging nearly 9 assists a game in that time frame as well. Tonight he'll get his best match-up of the season with the defensively challenged D'Angelo Russell, and the Lakers have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season. He's a fantastic play in all formats.

Russell Westbrook - FD 10800 DK 10400
Opponent - SAC FD Proj. Pts - 48.98 DK Proj. Pts - 50.72
For all that Rondo has done to invigorate the Kings offensively recently, he hasn't done a whole lot to keep up with opposing point guards. The King have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing ball handlers this season, and they'll get their toughest test of the season on Sunday. Westbrook's price is a little bit down after he was something less than a God in 2 of his last 3 games, but all that really changed was a little bit of bad shooting luck. The Kings play the 2nd fastest PACE in the league, and it's impossible to imagine the increase in possessions not leading to a well rounded and more than decent fantasy performance.

John Wall - FD 8900 DK 8700
Opponent - DAL FD Proj. Pts - 39.58 DK Proj. Pts - 40.72
I guess it's shaking up like a day to spend up at point guard. A lot of people will be off of Wall after he let the daily fantasy basketball world down ina nice match-up with the fast paced Suns, but I'll probably go back to the well here. Deron Williams is years (and years) removed from being anything resembling a serviceable defender, and he never really was in his prime, either. The Mavs have allowed the 11th most fantasy points to opposing PGs this season. Not a whole lot else could have gone worse Wall last game - his field goal percentage was a mess, he had some unlucky turnovers, and the Suns' inability to track Beal led to him taking his highest sho total of the season. Almost certainly a bounceback game here, and I would be happy with Wall anywhere.

Also considered: Deron Williams.

SHOOTING GUARD

Klay Thompson - FD 5900 DK 6300
Opponent - BKN FD Proj. Pts - 27.58 DK Proj. Pts - 31.03
Well, it certainly doesn't feel like a double up play, given that the Warriors will almost certainly blow the Nets out. But if the Nets keep it close, this could be a huge game for Thompson. Joe Johnson and the Nets have allowed the 3rd most points to opposing shooting guards, and their indifferent defensive approach gives up tons of three point looks. Still, it's important to keep in mind that Thompson is one of the first guys to lose his minutes in a blow out, since his normal rotation has him leaving the 3rd early and starting the 4th. It's still a very fair price for what Thompson can do, so I might just consider it depending on how the money breaks down elsewhere. EDIT: As I've continued to break down this position, Thompson will wind up being a must play everywhere.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - FD 4800 DK 4800
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 20.97 DK Proj. Pts - 23.04
Caldwell-Pope lost a few minutes in his last game since he's been in a terrible shooting slump, but you honestly don't have a ton of other options tonight. And it's not like he's been atrocious on these prices for the season. He's averaged 21 fantasy points, which you could live with on a slate like this. The Lakers have played a top 10 PACE this season, and the increase in possession should theoretically make for a high floor performance out of KCP.

Bradley Beal - FD 7500 DK 7200
Opponent - DAL FD Proj. Pts - 29.82 DK Proj. Pts - 32.04
This is more of a DraftKings play, but on a night where it seems impossible to find a safe shooting guard, you can at least count on Beal for his minutes and shots. The Mavericks are a league average match-up in all respects. They play a league average PACE, and have been about league average against opposing shooting guards. It does seem like Beal is shooting a little bit more recently, but I think some of that could just be noise. Still, it's hard to argue that Beal isn't likely the safest guy at the position with all factors considered.

Also considered: Wesley Matthews. If that shot starts falling, and it should, Matthews should easily start paying these prices on 35 minute rotations.

OVERLAY ALERT AND FREE ACCESS TO OUR PROJECTIONS!

DraftPot has a $100K Guaranteed contest for NFL's Week 11. Sign up and deposit with the promo code "DFSR" to get 100% matching bonus up to $1000. And if you sign up through our link we'll throw in a free month of our NFL and NBA projections. That's value baby! Click the banner below.

SMALL FORWARD

Kevin Durant - FD 10400 DK 10200
Opponent - SAC FD Proj. Pts - 46.77 DK Proj. Pts - 49.71
Sometimes all the different factors come together - great player, great match-up, and like a perfect game script. This one certainly fits that bill. Durant's playing high 30s minutes these days, and has looked completely himself since returning from injury. Great player - check. He's facing the Kings, who have already allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing small forwards, and have managed to downgrade their defense by starting Omri Casspi at the three. Great match-up - check. Sacramento plays the 3rd fastest PACE in the league. I guess there's some blow-out risk here? But man, with how fast this game should be, if a blowout happens it's hard to imagine that Durant isn't featured prominently in it.

Marcus Morris - FD 6300 DK 6400
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 28.35 DK Proj. Pts - 30.69
Marcus Morris has been a guy our projection system has been beating a drum on all season long. I'll drop a little DFS science on you for a second. Morris is still a tremendous value (though he won't be for long, as he's now had two great games in a row) because he's been running bad from the field. He's playing more minutes and shooting more shots per minutes, but is randomly shooting worse from nearly all spots on the floor. Watching the games, it's not like Morris is taking a bunch of contested and terrible shots (like, say, his brother Markieff). He's getting good looks, but this early in the season, his numbers just haven't crept up to their established career levels. His shot's fallen in the last two games, and he's been a terrific play. In a great match-up with the Lakers (who have allowed the 10th most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season), I love Morris as a 50/50 play.

Omri Casspi - FD 4200 DK 4700
Opponent - OKC FD Proj. Pts - 20.38 DK Proj. Pts - 21.34
Casspi is now starting, and if he's going to play 30+ minutes, this is a joke of a price, on FanDuel in particular. Casspi is a classic case of more minutes = linearly more production, as he's putting together pretty much the same per minute stats, and consequently putting up better per-game totals. The Thunder are playing their classic tough defense against small forwards tihs season, but this is one of those spots where it just doesn't matter.

POWER FORWARD

Julius Randle - FD 6200 DK 6400
Opponent - DET FD Proj. Pts - 26.77 DK Proj. Pts - 27.3
It's a pretty tough night for power forwards. This recommendation is really pretty straightforward. Randle has averaged about 4.5x fantasy points per dollar this season on this price, and should play about as many minutes as he usually does. He's been shooting about 20% more shots per minute recently, which should raise his expectation in any given game by about 2.5 or so fantasy points (just trust my math on that one). The slight increase will be offset by the fact that he's playing the Pistons. Detroit is a slightly below average match-up for opposing power forwards due to their slow pace, which should limit Randle's upside. So, this is a fairly boring but likely fine spot to play him. You asleep yet? Sorry about that. This position really does stink.

Dirk Nowitzki - FD 7000 DK 6900
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 28.88 DK Proj. Pts - 30.87
I was tempted to list Thad Young here since our projection system likes him and he crushed the Warriors in their last meeting, but I went with Dirk for a few reasons. First of all, Nowitzki will likely be about 3-5 inches taller than whoever winds up covering him. His patented fadeaway will be there all game, and the Wiz similarly have no one that can close out on him to any degree. The Wizards also play the third fastest PACE in the league, and have allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season. The only reason I ding dirk a little bit is because I'm imagining the Wizards just get crushed here, and I figure Nowitzki will likely play his 31 minute rotation (instead of the 34-35 he plays against good teams). If you think he plays more than that, you can probably play him above Randle as well.

Serge Ibaka - FD 6200 DK 6100
Opponent - SAC FD Proj. Pts - 28.77 DK Proj. Pts - 30.37
Yup, our system thinks you should probably play all of the big three from OKC today. Ibaka's been pretty underwhelming recently, but the price makes him kind of too good to ignore on a short slate. What it likes in particular here is that the Kings will likely be starting Rudy Gay at the 4, who should have literally no ability to keep Ibaka off the glass. I'm not sure Ibaka is a high ceiling guy given his lack of usage recently, but I think it should be a pretty high floor situation.

Our projection system loves Thaddeus Young against the Warriors, and it doesn't even know that he was great against them earlier this season. You're worried about the blow-out, obviously, but he might do well against them once again.

If he starts, I love Markieff Morris on a way-too-cheap price in the early slate.

 

CENTER

DeMarcus Cousins - FD 10300 DK 10800
Opponent - OKC FD Proj. Pts - 53.02 DK Proj. Pts - 53.66
If you're fixing on spending up tonight, our system loves DeMarcus Cousins. Yes, it loves him even more than it loves Andre Drummond against the Lakers. Foul trouble and some poor shooting night killed Cousins against the Rockets, but that was against Dwight Howard. Who on the Thunder is supposed to cover him, exactly? Some combination of Enes Kanter and Steven Adams? Give me a break. I can't imagine him being in foul trouble here, and think he'll put up a big double double in a high profile match-up with a couple of the other stars in the league.

Andre Drummond - FD 9600 DK 9300
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 44.41 DK Proj. Pts - 45.26
Okay, for all my bravado with the Boogie pick, I might still wind up going with Drummond for safety purposes against the Lakers. Drummond went for 17 and 17 in their only other meeting this season, and that was a game where he was in foul trouble. The Lakers have allowed the second most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season, and Roy Hibbert looks like he's playing defense with glass in his shoes. Super high floor here, and I'd say higher than Cousins considering the blow-out risk that might be there in Oklahoma City.

If Bogut is out again, Festus Ezeli is a fantastic punt play.

If you've made it this far, you're probably hungry for even more information! At the end of the post, we have our NBA eBook that you really ought to check out before setting even a single daily fantasy NBA lineup. It's free, below.

We've also got our exclusive projection system. Click below to grab a free trial now!