Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 12/12/15

Happy Saturday! Yule tide cheer abounds. Will the Warriors go undefeated until Christmas and meet the Cavs to play for 30-0? Will they be too tired after an insane double overtime and fall to a frisky Bucks team (hint: no). Will Kyrie Irving and his serious usage be a blessing or a curse in Cleveland? Will I write more opening blurbs that no one ever reads? Yes, it's that time of year. Post a shout-out that you read this blurb in the comments, and I'll send you a little holiday cheer.

On to the picks!

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POINT GUARD

John Wall - FD 9500 DK 9300
Opponent - DAL FD Proj. Pts - 43.12 DK Proj. Pts - 44.35
Wall has told the media that his recent surge in production is due to his ankle finally being healthy. If that's the truth, we might be looking at the last little stretch of Wall being a little bit under-priced. Deron Williams was never much of a defender, and he's past whatever prime he might have had there. All in all the Mavs have allowed roughly a league average fantasy total to opposing point guards, but the memory of what Wall did to Williams and the Mavericks in their last match-up is indelibly etched in my mind. An X factor here will be the potential absence of Beal - Wall's usage jumps to 30.5 when Beal's not on the floor this season. In a game that Beal might miss, I think we're in store for the Wall show once again.

Raymond Felton - FD 4500 DK 4500
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 21.58 DK Proj. Pts - 23.15
Patrick Beverley - FD 4200 DK 4800
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 22.02 DK Proj. Pts - 24.69
I group these guys together because they're pretty similar. Both have nice match-ups with fast and sort of bad teams, and both are still underpriced relative to how many minutes they are playing. They each have their pluses and minuses here. Beverley has the best match-up in the league for the position, but he's generally less involved in the offense than Felton is. I list Felton first because I think he's safer, but Beverley should have plenty of upside against the turnover happy Lake-show.

Deron Williams - FD 7100 DK 6600
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 30.13 DK Proj. Pts - 32.05
This is a significantly batter play on DraftKings, but I can stomach it for my 50/50s on FanDuel as well. Though, if we're being honest, I'll almost certainly go expensive with Wall and cheap with one of the above guys. Still, Williams got his (33.1 fantasy points) in the Mavs' last meeting with the Wiz, and clearly benefited from the increased possessions that come from playing against the league's 4th fastest paced team. I imagine the Wizards will devote some more perimeter defensive attention to Wes Matthews in this one, and I like Williams to fill in the gaps.

Damian Lillard is a great DraftKings play, but he's outside my price range on FanDuel.

If you believe inD'Angelo Russel's minutes against the Spurs, he's a very nice value at these prices as well.

SHOOTING GUARD

Wesley Matthews - FD 5500 DK 5300
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 26.56 DK Proj. Pts - 30.18
Our projection system has loved Matthews ever since he started playing 34 minutes a game for one reason - he's been underpriced due to some bad FG% luck. Well, he's still shooting 9% off his established levels, and he remains too cheap for his minutes and opportunity. And really, I don't totally get it. He's paid 5x points per dollar in 4 of his last 5 games (including the monster against these same Wizards where he paid 10x), and he's a high floor high upside play until he's over $6,000. I triple like Wes if Beal sits again - it's a huge defensive drop-off from Beal to Neal/Temple.

Monta Ellis - FD 5600 DK 5400
Opponent - DET FD Proj. Pts - 25.66 DK Proj. Pts - 26.71
Our projection system had Monta Ellis in the optimal system lineup on Friday, and he put up a monster 45+ fantasy point performance in a below average match-up with the Heat. Now, he won't get 6 steals a night - but you can take away 5 of those steals and still be satisfied with the performance. Ellis is shooting less this season (hence his declining prices), but he's doing more on the glass and getting more assists as well. This is a roughly league-average match-up, so if Ellis is going to continue to play mid-thirties minutes, he'll remain an incredible value.

James Harden - FD 10800 DK 10800
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 49.8 DK Proj. Pts - 52.69
Now, this one comes with a little bit of a disclaimer. If you think this game stays close, Harden's probably a must-play here. He's been the very safest big money option since the beginning of November, and he combines high usage and huge minutes like no one in the league right now. He's shooting 11% more shots per minute than last season, and he's added more free throws per game as well. The Lakers play fast, and have the worst defensive efficiency in the league. But can they hang? They've looked pretty good against the Spurs as of this writing, but they are generally pretty terrible. Still, the Rockets are terrible too. I'll probably just wind up playing him everywhere.

A solid high floor play is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Significantly better on DraftKings, where's he's essentially free for a guy who plays high 30s minutes per game.

Considered: OJ Mayo, but, the Warriors, and his price is climbing.

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SMALL FORWARD

Marcus Morris - FD 5800 DK 5900
Opponent - IND FD Proj. Pts - 27.68 DK Proj. Pts - 29.91
Another guy our projection system has been beating the drum for, for many of the same reasons it's like Wes Matthews. Morris is shooting 33% more shots per game this season than he did last year, but some run bad in the FG% and 3PT% has his overall numbers lagging what his true expectation should be. This late in the season one might start to worry that Morris' shot quality has declined as his volume has gone up, but the eyeball test doesn't agree, there - he seems to just be missing open looks. Paul George is a fine defender, but the Pacers have allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing small forwards on account of them playing the 8th fastest PACE in the league. I like Morris in any format.

Nicolas Batum - FD 7600 DK 7600
Opponent - BOS FD Proj. Pts - 34.11 DK Proj. Pts - 36.31
Batum got the 4th quarter off as the Hornets blew out the Grizzlies, and the Celtics played all of their guys a zillion minutes in a double overtime heartbreaker against Golden State. It's hard to imagine them getting up for this one, which makes this a perfect situation for a max-effort guy like Batum. The Celtics are already one of the better match-ups in the league for opposing small forwards - allowing the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing threes in the league this season. This feels like a beyond solid 50/50 play to me tonight.

Otto Porter - FD 5600 DK 5900
Opponent - DAL FD Proj. Pts - 24.24 DK Proj. Pts - 25.09
He's creeping out of playability on DraftKings, but I still like this FanDuel price plenty if you don't feel like paying up at the position. This changes a bit if Beal is back, but Porter will likely be out there for extended minutes, and he feasted on the boards against the Mavs in their last meeting. I don't know that there's huge upside for Porter on this price, but again, there seems to be a lot of safety here.

If Trevor Ariza is out again, Corey Brewer becomes a grade A must play. Khris Middleton is a very interesting separation play against a gassed Warriors team that will be playing without Harrison Barnes once again.

POWER FORWARD

LaMarcus Aldridge - FD 7100 DK 6900
Opponent - ATL FD Proj. Pts - 34.38 DK Proj. Pts - 35.11
The Spurs seem to have decided to start featuring Aldridge in the offense - he's averaged better than 15 shots per game in his last 5 after averaging fewer than 13 shots per game before that. The Hawks have a defender who can chase Aldridge around to some degree in Millsap, but they've still allowed the 11th most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards this season. In a game that rates to be fairly close, Aldridge could also be in for a minutes boost here. A nice high floor play.

Anthony Davis - FD 11000 DK 10600
Opponent - CHI FD Proj. Pts - 50.24 DK Proj. Pts - 50.99
The big money play of the day if you go away from James Harden. The Bulls have decent season long numbers against power forwards, but Mirotic simply doesn't have the athletic ability to follow Davis around. He'll get a little Taj Gibson here as well, but it really shouldn't matter too much. The Bulls are playing the league's tenth fastest PACE this season, and Davis should take advantage of the extra possessions and get his usual huge minutes. Some will be soured after a couple of bad Brow games, but I'm a buyer here.

Draymond Green - FD 8100 DK 8200
Opponent - MIL FD Proj. Pts - 37.73 DK Proj. Pts - 40.22
Every night is the finals game seven for the Warriors right now, and Green is their emotional (and defensive) anchor. Green's averaging more points and rebounds per game this year, sure, but the truly crazy thing has been his assist numbers. He's 7th in the NBA in assists per game, and it looks totally sustainable. If you're not following the Dubs closely, Draymond is getting assists primarily as a result of being the screener in a pick and roll. Curry kicks it to him, and he insta-passes it to a cutter or someone hanging out by the three-point line. Against a sloppy Bucks team, I think Draymond does a little bit of everything and ultimately gets home.

On DraftKings, Pau Gasol is still too cheap, even if he's only playing low 30s minutes per game.

 

CENTER

Andre Drummond - FD 9300 DK 9500
Opponent - IND FD Proj. Pts - 41.99 DK Proj. Pts - 42.77
Drummond will be the chalkiest of chalk plays today, I'd imagine. He had twenty-nine (29!) rebounds the last time he faced the Pacers, and their depleted front-court simply can't hang with Drummond down low. Not much additional analysis needed, here. If Drummond avoids foul trouble, he's going to put up numbers here.

Marcin Gortat - FD 6300 DK 6200
Opponent - DAL FD Proj. Pts - 29.64 DK Proj. Pts - 30.11
Gortat is a simple price/opportunity/talent mismatch at the moment. Aside from last night's stinker against the Pelicans, Gortat has been a steady diet of 5x points per dollar in every match-up he's had recently. There's not really much of a take on Gortat for me to give you. His per game and per minute stats are virtually identical to what they were last season. He's averaged 4.5x points per dollar on this price, and he's playing more minutes than his season averages. Boring, right? Well, boring pays in 50/50s and double ups.

Also considered: Al Horford.

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