Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 12/16/15

A big old Wednesday in the NBA coming at you. One thing that's been difficult with some teams this season is projecting minutes. This has always been the uphill climb in terms of a projection system, but this season seems particularly difficult. Take the Nuggets last night. They played rotations as if everyone was getting a participation trophy and Mike Malone was forced to get everyone equal run so the parents didn't complain. It's nuts. Let's hope we can target some of the safer minutes tonight.

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POINT GUARD

Russell Westbrook - FD 10800 DK 10400
Opponent - POR FD Proj. Pts - 47.42 DK Proj. Pts - 49.09
There are a bunch of cheap options at the other positions tonight. Point guard isn't one of them. I can see a scenario where you are spending up at this position. Russell isn't the greatest points/ $ play in the system, but I think you will end up spending here one way or the other. Of course that's tough to know this far out from lineup lock as these things change quickly. Portland's been fine enough against opposing point guards this season, but Westbrook is Westbrook and this game projects as one of the highest scoring for the night. Still think we are getting him for a fair price as his salary's come down a little since Durant came back.

Ricky Rubio - FD 6800 DK 6900
Opponent - NYK FD Proj. Pts - 31.61 DK Proj. Pts - 32.57
Though Rubio isn't much of a scorer, he finds ways to do just about everything else on the court. This isn't to say he won't score (when he does it feels like a bonus) but the assists and to some degree, rebounds, are what keep his floor a little higher. The Knicks are below average against opposing point guards this season and the position as a whole doesn't have a ton of safety. I like Rubio in the mid tier especially if you are wiggling money around other places.

Both Brandon Knight and John Wall rate out well in our system but I am worried about their respective games getting completely out of hand. On the cheaper side, Ramon Sessions has been seeing enough minutes in the absence of Bradley Beal to take a chance on.

SHOOTING GUARD

O.J. Mayo - FD 4900 DK 5700
Opponent - LAC FD Proj. Pts - 24.14 DK Proj. Pts - 26.2
We've been saying this for some time now and it still holds true today. As long as Mayo is running the point with the starting five and playing thirty minutes or more, then he is a ssolid cash game play out of the shooting guard position. The price is a little steep on DraftKings, but the FD price is moving up at a glacial pace. That means he's still very much playable. Not a great matchup here, but Mayo is a dude priced just about punt value who you can safely roll out.

Dwyane Wade - FD 6900 DK 6800
Opponent - BKN FD Proj. Pts - 33.83 DK Proj. Pts - 34.36
Brooklyn is one of the worst teams in the league at defending the opposing team's shooting guard. This is because they continue trotting Joe Johnson out there every night in an effort to come in last place (no other reason I can think of). Johnson gets torched on the nightly because he's slow and old and slow. Wade's no spring chicken either, but I definitely like his side of the old man matchup. Wade needs to score, and isn't the safest guy in the world, but like I said, this matchup is choice.

Wesley Matthews - FD 5500 DK 5800
Opponent - IND FD Proj. Pts - 25.92 DK Proj. Pts - 29.17
This game is supposed to have one of the highest overs of the night that isn't projected to be a blowout. Good news for a guy like Wes who gets plenty of run in the close ones. He's been throwing up a ton of three point looks of late and if they are falling then he crushes these prices. I like him better on FanDuel and the minutes should give him a high enough floor. Shooting guard is tricky business tonight and if I don't need to spend up, I don't want to.

Strongly consider Coutney Lee if Allen is out again.

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SMALL FORWARD

Matt Barnes - FD 4900 DK 5100
Opponent - CHI FD Proj. Pts - 25.1 DK Proj. Pts - 27.21
Jeff Green - FD 4500 DK 4900
Opponent - CHI FD Proj. Pts - 21.66 DK Proj. Pts - 23.12
With Tony Allen out of the lineup and Zach Randolph moving to the bench, these two guys have seen a much-expanded role for the Grizz. Barnes took Z-Bo's spot in the rotation as they've gone a little smaller with the first unit. He's been playing minutes in the mid thirties since the change and been a fantasy animal. Since joining the starters, Barnes is averaging a 16/9/3. That's probably not sustainable, but the price has a lot of room for error. He will be a popular play tonight and for good reason.

Green on the other hand has a situation much like Courtney Lee's. He's seen a big minutes bump since Tony Allen went down with injury. He is playing crazy minutes, like in the 40's of run. Basically any player in the NBA priced like Green and playing almost the entire game would be considered a must start. Keep an eye on Tony Allen news big time leading into lock.

Khris Middleton - FD 5700 DK 5300
Opponent - LAC FD Proj. Pts - 26.94 DK Proj. Pts - 28.59
Middleton snuck his way into the picks last night and stays there again tonight. A couple of notes on him. For starters, he's a much better value on DraftKings. On FanDuel, I prefer the two guys listed above. Like most players in the NBA, Middleton is very minutes' dependent. He needs a projected 35 minutes or so to even enter a discussion because he is so scoring-dependent. He won't chip in around the margins and therefore you need him shooting threes and jogging up and down the court for long stretches.

If I could trust Kawhi Leonard would play minutes in the mid-thirties I'd be all over him against the Wizards. There's just too much risk of blowout/ he sits for longer stretches because of Pop and all.

POWER FORWARD

Blake Griffin - FD 9400 DK 9000
Opponent - MIL FD Proj. Pts - 45.25 DK Proj. Pts - 45.96
Milwaukee ranks among the worst in the league in allowing opposing power forwards to score this season. They are about 20% worse than league average against the position. That's almost for sure going to come down as the season goes on, but it's a good place to start for Blake. He's one of the top big money plays for the dollar tonight which is welcome news because the power forward position is so weak. Griffin is typically a big minute guy, but there's some blowout risk here.

Chris Bosh - FD 7700 DK 7200
Opponent - BKN FD Proj. Pts - 36.77 DK Proj. Pts - 38.59
Bosh was one of the top power forwards in the system the other night against the Hawks and he more than delivered. Bosh went 24/10/3 on his way to a solid night. Brooklyn isn't a phenomenal matchup for power forwards, but I see Bosh as having a higher floor in this one. Whats important for his scoring is being able to hit the three. That's been going down in the last couple of games. He'll need to find the range again.

Jon Leuer - FD 5000 DK 5900
Opponent - GSW FD Proj. Pts - 24.67 DK Proj. Pts - 25.28
Now that Markieff is DOA in Phoenix, Leuer has emerged as their starting power forward and he's made a strong case to stick at least for the short term. He's averaging 13/8/2 over the last six games and in that span has put in about 31 minutes per game on the court. The price is creeping up thanks to the new opportunity, but it isn't all the way there yet. Bad matchup against Golden State, but price dictates a play.

 

CENTER

Jahlil Okafor - FD 6900 DK 6900
Opponent - ATL FD Proj. Pts - 33.51 DK Proj. Pts - 33.92
Nerlens Noel will sit again with the eye issues, leaving plenty of big man minutes for Okafor. One thing about Jahlil is his run appears blow out proof. By this I mean it doesn't matter how much the Sixers are losing by, he sees the minutes. He's been 22 points a game like clockwork in the short term and is averaging 22/9 over the last four. Tonight he gets an Atlanta team allowing worse than league average production to opposing centers. This is a good spot and his price won't kill you. It's hard to get consistent center minutes anywhere, but Okafor appears one of those guys.

Andre Drummond - FD 9100 DK 9100
Opponent - BOS FD Proj. Pts - 42.51 DK Proj. Pts - 43.3
Watch him loaf around seemingly disinterested, miss alley-oops and generally pull a disappearing act in the first half against the Clippers wasn't a ton of fun. But he picked it up in the second half on his way to a respectable (really good) 20/15 line when it was all said and done. The pace of this game should mean more volume and opportunities for Drummond. The Celts don't have any bigs who will be able to body him up down low and in the right situation he could creep toward 20 rebounds. He's expensive on a big slate, but he also has upside even at these prices.

Greg Monroe - FD 7800 DK 7200
Opponent - LAC FD Proj. Pts - 36.36 DK Proj. Pts - 36.9
He crushed some dreams last night with a last minute scratch. If healthy tonight, he's a much better play on DraftKings where the price remains well below that of FanDuel. Monroe doesn't have crazy upside, but I like his cash game value against the Clippers assuming the Bucks can stay in the game. Monroe really doesn't score enough to win you a big tournament on such a big slate. But I like his floor in this matchup.

 

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