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Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

12/17/2015
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 12/17/15

 

After a huge Wednesday night with a couple of different land mines, we get a slower night in the NBA. It's nice to catch our breath and hammer away at these shorter slates. One really good matchup here and a couple of throw in games.

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POINT GUARD

Russell Westbrook - FD 10800 DK 10300
Opponent - CLE FD Proj. Pts - 49.6 DK Proj. Pts - 51.37
This is a very interesting short slate. There are actually a bunch of cheaper options throughout the different positions which might mean you can play up to three of the bigger money guys on this slate. There are four total so that's a great spot. Westbrook is Westbrook and really needs little introduction here. From a points/ $ standpoint, I like him better than both Lowry and Walker who while much cheaper, don't have the upside respective to price. The Cavs have been just a tick below average in allowing opposing point guards to score this season while Charlotte and Toronto have locked it down. I'm playing Westbrook here almost without a doubt.

Patrick Beverley - FD 4200 DK 5000
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 22.1 DK Proj. Pts - 24.75
He's the perfect kind of play on a slate like this one. Beverley is still coming very cheap for a dude who just seems to hit value every single night. The minutes are there from the starting point guard position and the Lakers are allowing well above average production to opposing ones. It's an across the board bump for Beverley who strikes me as incredibly safe tonight at the price. With such a short slate, punts are hard to come by. Beverley is basically that, a cheap play with safe minutes.

SHOOTING GUARD

James Harden - FD 10800 DK 10800
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 50.2 DK Proj. Pts - 53.3
James and I were joking the other night that we might as well live in Houston for how much we each watch them on League Pass this season. That's what happens when you have a lot of Harden on a lot of nights. And while watching the Rockets doesn't always constitute watching good basketball, it is interesting watching Harden operate on any given night. He's fascinating. It seems like you are consistently weathering an underwhelming first quarter (or half) only for him to turn it one late game. Tonight he'll have every opportunity to put up numbers against a defensively-challenged Laker squad.

Terrence Ross - FD 3600 DK 3900
Opponent - CHA FD Proj. Pts - 16.02 DK Proj. Pts - 18.32
On the one hand, he's still in the starting lineup for the Raptors while Demarre Carroll is out. On the other hand, Ross is as erratic as they come. He'll skunk you for sure if the shot isn't falling (see: his game against Philly). Ross is the fifth option on offense for the Raptors when he's in the first unit. So while the minutes are there, the production is anything but. I'll take my chances on him in the short slate because of the price and scarcity at the position. But it doesn't feel great.

 

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SMALL FORWARD

Trevor Ariza - FD 5600 DK 5700
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 26.22 DK Proj. Pts - 29.27
He appears back to a normal amount of minutes in the mid 30's. Ariza has to be putting in the defensive stats to really hit value which actually could be an issue tonight. The Lakers don't turn the ball over a ton and aren't playing a breakneck pace anymore (thanks a lot Kobe). But Ariza's price is very much a value right now as he climbs back from the injury and some weirdness in run. On the short slate, unless you are going double expensive with KD and Lebron, Ariza makes a nice middle ground.

LeBron James - FD 10300 DK 9900
Opponent - OKC FD Proj. Pts - 46.04 DK Proj. Pts - 47.83
Lebron or KD? Kd or Lebron. This will be the question for tonight at the small forward position. I'm going with Lebron here. In this price range, Lebron is almost as safe as it comes in terms of floor. While he'll occasionally hit the stratosphere, he's more of a cash game play for me. But that's what we are after in these articles. On such a short slate, every dollar counts and our system likes him heads up against Durant. It's close mind you (though on DK you do save a couple hundred), but on short slates you make your money in the margins. Lebron for me.

POWER FORWARD

Cody Zeller - FD 3900 DK 4700
Opponent - TOR FD Proj. Pts - 20.99 DK Proj. Pts - 21.31
Marvin Williams - FD 4800 DK 5600
Opponent - TOR FD Proj. Pts - 22.03 DK Proj. Pts - 24.07
It's so freaking hard to judge the Hornets' rotations right now in terms of run because they are just never involved in a close game. Either they are blowing teams out or getting run out of the gym. In their last five games they've played one in which the final score was less than double digits apart. I'm tempted to call both of these guys safer if at their respective prices simply because they should see minutes in at least the mid to high 20's. Williams needs a little bit more of course though Kaminsky is cutting into both of their runs. It's hard to know if that's blowout related. Kaminsky played his least minutes in the game against Boston which was the close one. Vegas has this game staying close and I'm considering both of these guys a good value.

Luis Scola - FD 4500 DK 5100
Opponent - CHA FD Proj. Pts - 24.86 DK Proj. Pts - 25.25
He's a first half hero for the Raptors. Scola tends to not play in crunch time as Toronto will go small. Last game he barely played at all which is troubling. I'm still willing to take the risk on him tonight mostly because the other, more expensive power forward options just aren't enticing in the slightest. Scola is a per minute beast. It's just those minutes man.

Consider Serge Ibaka if you need to spend a little more here for raw points.

 

 

CENTER

Bismack Biyombo - FD 4000 DK 4800
Opponent - CHA FD Proj. Pts - 22.83 DK Proj. Pts - 23.31
He's still logging major minutes at center for the Raptors and I really don't see that changing as long as Valanciunas is out. Biyombo doesn't bring much (really anything) on the offensive end unless it's out of the rare pick and roll. But he does everything else, rebounding and blocking his way to value. With the bevy of superstars going on this slate, Biyombo is another perfect way to save some bucks at a weaker position.
Dwight Howard - FD 7400 DK 7000
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 31.88 DK Proj. Pts - 32.45
Do you trust him? Me neither, but pickings are very slim at this position. The Lakers allow a ton of production to opposing centers with the ghost of Roy Hibbert and a bunch of other spare parts roaming around the interior. But Dwight just doesn't feature enough in the Rockets' "offense" to make a cash game play. You might get stuck in between with some pricing tonight, and I like him a little more on DK. But Dwight (and the rest of the Rockets) has issues.

 

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3 Visitor Comments

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  2. Didn’t see this yesterday, but we saw things exactly the same, unfortunately it was all bad lol. And completely agree, I may as well live in Houston too. And I also love watching the twolves. Between space jam lavine and dieng the Tasmanian devil, they make for a great watch!!!

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