Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 1/3/16

Happy Sunday! Week 17 in the NFL, but hopefully you know by now that we'll be firing off a full pile of daily fantasy NBA lineups as well. It's an interesting day - two distinct, very small slates on both sites. We love small slates for one major reason - the mistakes made on smaller slates are bigger than the ones you make on bigger slates, simply because it's harder to make the money work. That said, I won't be able to provide a full set of picks for both small slates. If you want to see our projections for every single guy on every slate, you can go ahead and grab a free trial of the winning projections that inform each and every one of these picks.

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POINT GUARD

Brandon Knight - FD 6500 DK 7400
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 33.92 DK Proj. Pts - 36.34
Knight's minutes have been all over the place, largely because the Suns are now completely horrible. They gave up an inexplicable 142 points against the less than dynamic Kings on Saturday, and people are going to be rightfully skeptical to play any Sun in future match-ups. The good news here, though, is that the Lakers are perhaps equally awful. They've allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season, and it isn't particularly close. I think we're in store for a 38 minute Knight game, and that he's a part of all winning big tournament and 50/50 lineups.

Jeff Teague - FD 6400 DK 6500
Opponent - NYK FD Proj. Pts - 31.64 DK Proj. Pts - 32.78
In his last match-up with the Knicks, Jeff Teague got placed by many in the old "never again" bin. And it's understandable - he was totally absent from the Hawks' first half evisceration of them. To make matters worse, he then came out and dominated them in the 3rd quarter, making it so none of the Hawks' starters saw the fourth quarter. Still, Teague is a guy who has paid 4.5x points per dollar on FanDuel in his last 5 games, and paid off huge in fairly bad match-ups with Detroit and Houston. Assuming the Hawks don't completely dismantle the Knicks, here, Teague should be a great guy to slide in against the defensively lost Jose Calderon.

Jameer Nelson - FD 5000 DK 5400
Opponent - POR FD Proj. Pts - 22.64 DK Proj. Pts - 25
This recommendation sort of depends on which version of Nelson's playing time you think you're going to get here. In 2 of his last 4 games he played 41+ minutes, and in the other 2 he played low 20s. There's reasons for both of those disappearances, of course - both were blowouts against top 5 teams. Today's game is no such contest. I think we'll see the good Nelson, and if so, he could wind up being a tremendous value on these prices.

Interesting early slate punt: Aaron Brooks, if Derrick Rose is out again. People will be way off him after an awful performance on Friday, but he was randomly in foul trouble and then sort of fell out of the rotation. He played 27 minutes in a similar situation in the previous game.

Some people might play John Wall, but not me. The Heat allowed the second fewest fantasy points per game to opposing point guards on account of their dirt-slow pace and strong rim protection. Looking for a disappointing game from Wall, here.

SHOOTING GUARD

Will Barton - FD 7200 DK 7300
Opponent - POR FD Proj. Pts - 31.34 DK Proj. Pts - 32.59
It's always nice when we have extremely recent evidence of how a guy can perform against a certain team, and that's exactly what we have in looking at Barton's last game against the Trail Blazers. He put up a phenomenal 33/5/4 on 22 shots against CJ McCollum and company, and there's no reason to think he won't do something similar tonight. His shots per game have steadily been climbing all season, and I expect he'll be priced more in the DeMar DeRozan territory before season's end. Great play in any format.

Devin Booker - FD 3600 DK 4200
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 17.74 DK Proj. Pts - 20.51
Saturday might have been the first we're going to see of the ushering in of the Devin Booker era in Phoenix. I don't think he'll Wally Pipp Eric Bledsoe should he return, but on a team with basically no offensive options, he's going to have to do for a while. He played 41 minutes and put up 21 points and 4 steals against the Kings on Saturday, and he could be a good play on these prices on half that. The Lakers have allowed the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season, so this is a fine time to roll the old Devin Booker train back one more time.

Lou Williams - FD 5300 DK 5400
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 26.61 DK Proj. Pts - 29
This projection assumes Kobe will be out again, but even if he isn't, Lou Williams looks like a mighty fine play. Devin Booker is an interesting young talent, but he still gambles too much, and is clearly more offensively minded. The Suns play the 4th fastest PACE in the league, and there should be a ton of shots to go around for all of the Lakers offense, such as it is.

Dwyane Wade - FD 7400 DK 6900
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 33.02 DK Proj. Pts - 33.55
The Wizards have allowed the 10th most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season, and that number will continue to climb while Bradley Beal is out. The Garrett Temple/Ramon Sessions duo pales when compared to Beal defensively, and the crafty Wade should be able to get his and then some here. The Wiz also play the 5th fastest PACE in the league, giving Wade and the Heat a few extra possessions here. Seems like a great 50/50 play, even if there isn't a ton of upside in big tournaments.

SMALL FORWARD

Otto Porter - FD 6000 DK 6000
Opponent - MIA FD Proj. Pts - 25.98 DK Proj. Pts - 26.88
Small forward is pretty darned terrible today, and while I'm a little pessimistic that Porter can reproduce his career game against Orlando from Friday in a much tougher match-up with the Heat, he's still what passes for a safe play at the position tonight. I suspect basically everyone will play him in 50/50s, so he's a way to just take the chalk line and compete with the rest of your line-up against the field. His increase in shots also contributes to a higher floor - he's shot 46 times in his last 3 games, a much higher rate than his season long 10.8 shots per game average. A good 50/50 play, but I do question his upside.

Carmelo Anthony - FD 8600 DK 8300
Opponent - ATL FD Proj. Pts - 40.14 DK Proj. Pts - 42.19
It always feels strange to spend up at a bad position, but that might be your best course of action tonight. Melo was actually great in his limited minutes against their Hawks in their last meeting, and if it weren't for his incompetent teammates, he might have put up quite a nice fantasy total. As it stood, he put up 18 and 12 in 30 minutes, and then watched the fourth quarter while shaking his head. Now, that could totally happen tonight as well. But in a game against the team who plays the 11th fastest PACE in the league, and on a 2 game slate, it's tough to imagine hedging away from him.

Jared Dudley - FD 4000 DK 4400
Opponent - MIA FD Proj. Pts - 18.29 DK Proj. Pts - 19.96
Arguably the most boring guy to watch in the league, but he's got a lot of games on the old log where he puts up better than 5x points per dollar on these prices. On this depleted version of the Wizards, the guy just plays his minutes - and this might very well be a price/opportunity mismatch. I'm falling asleep from even writing his name. Let's move on.

Early slate punt: Nikola Mirotic. The minutes seem almost random at this point, but our system likes him even on just 22 minutes today. If he hits the higher end of his minutes and plays 30+, he'll be a part of winning tournament lineups.

Late slate value play: TJ Warren, if you trust the minutes. Been a beast in his last 2 games.

POWER FORWARD

Bobby Portis - FD 3900 DK 4300
Opponent - TOR FD Proj. Pts - 20.89 DK Proj. Pts - 21.47
Taj Gibson - FD 5000 DK 5700
Opponent - TOR FD Proj. Pts - 26.21 DK Proj. Pts - 26.65
Pau Gasol - FD 8700 DK 7800
Opponent - TOR FD Proj. Pts - 39.34 DK Proj. Pts - 39.97
Pick a Bull power forward, any Bull power forward. Our projection system loves all three of these guys against a defensively challenged Toronto front court, especially now that Jonas Valancunias is back. If you're not familiar with JV's interior defensive work, he's allowed 57.9% shooting when he's the main rim defender this season. The league average for big men is about 47.5%. All three of these guys are still underpriced on FanDuel, and Gasol makes for a phenomenal DraftKings play as well. Enjoy!

Chris Bosh - FD 7500 DK 7500
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 34.71 DK Proj. Pts - 36.33
My favorite late slate power forward play. Bosh has been a little bit quiet in his last 2 games, but not because he wasn't trying. He shot 15/37 from the field during those two games, and had he shot his established 49% from the field in those games, he'd basically have paid these prices handily. It'll be a nice match-up with the Wizards, who have allowed the 11th most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards this season. On a slate without a lot of great options, Bosh is a breath of fresh air.

CENTER

Hassan Whiteside - FD 7500 DK 7400
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 36.25 DK Proj. Pts - 36.88
I love Whiteside in this game for a handful of reasons, but there's a pretty cool stat I'd like to share with you first. SportVU tracking data has Whiteside at 4th in the NBA in contested rebounds per game this season, in spite of having his minutes wind up all over the place. Marcin Gortat? He's 32nd, behind guys like Jordan Hill, and Julius Randle. The guy just doesn't like to bang down low, and that's too bad for him, considering his opponent. I also like Whiteside on account of Washington's fast pace. More possessions means more boards & blocks - Whiteside's sweet spot. I imagine he'll be a huge play today.

Joffrey Lauvergne - FD 4200 DK 4400
Opponent - POR FD Proj. Pts - 21.26 DK Proj. Pts - 21.8
King Joffrey beat the Trail Blazers up on a per minute basis in their 12/30/15 meeting, and while I don't generally enjoy playing guys who play this few minutes, what he's doing right now feels fairly consistent. What you like about this match-up as well is Portland's lack of interior presence. They've allowed the 5th most most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season, and don't really have a down-low threat to get Lauvergne in foul trouble. A fine play in all formats, given the size of the slate.

Early slate: Robin Lopez - he's cheap, and he's priced to his minutes floor right now. Nice upside there.

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