Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 1/29/16

It's a packed Friday in the NBA, but there's one game standing out from the bunch. The OKC-Houston game features an insane projected total and should be a great one to watch. But there's more out there. Plenty of value for this end of the week.

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POINT GUARD

Archie Goodwin - FD 5000 DK 5600
Opponent - NYK
FD Proj. Pts - 27.01 DK Proj. Pts - 27.91
The price is moving up only incrementally and those increments are just too small considering how the Suns are using Goodwin. He's still playing around 30+ minutes a game from the point and been working with a very high floor relative to price. The matchup against Cleveland was a tough one. This one against the Knicks will not be. Chalk-iest of chalk plays on Fanduel.

Russell Westbrook - FD 10800 DK 10800
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 48.12 DK Proj. Pts - 49.76
I'll get to it more in a little bit, but this is definitely the game to target on the slate. It has an enormous expected point total and Westbrook likely has the highest floor of any player on the slate. If the game is up and down the court (which it sure looks like going in) then this could be an all-Russell type of affair. He isn't the highest points/$ player in our system, but it sure would feel terrible thinking about fading Westbrook in this type of game. I won't call him an automatic start, but with a bunch of other potential savings across the board, it shouldn't be tough fitting that salary.

Kemba Walker - FD 8800 DK 8700
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 40.55 DK Proj. Pts - 42.47
I don't mind Kemba as a way to be a little different on this slate. I think the two guys above are the more popular plays for safety, but Kemba has a great matchup tonight. Damian Lillard is not a good defender and the Blazers have allowed more than league average scoring to the opposing point guard. Kemba could be in line for huge minutes as Jeremy Lin's already been ruled out. He has big upside in the right game, but I don't see him as super safe.

SHOOTING GUARD

James Harden - FD 10200 DK 10000
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 47.27 DK Proj. Pts - 50.09
I'm not a big guy when it comes to narrative and making predictions on performance. I like to let the numbers do the talking while I do the writing. But it is always fun when the Bearded-One makes his way back to OKC. This game should feature just a shade less than 1,000 points. Well, to be more accurate the early line has the o/u at a nutso 221.5. You won't see many NBA contests open that high. But it's with good reason. These two teams push the pace and Houston is a bottom third team in defensive efficiency. You are going to see Harden boost a ton of shots here. Easily in consideration for one of the top overall lines tonight.

Devin Booker - FD 4900 DK 5500
Opponent - NYK
FD Proj. Pts - 23.68 DK Proj. Pts - 26.91
Booker is still coming at more than a fair price on FanDuel considering his current opportunity. With the Suns razor-thin in the backcourt, he's been logging big minutes for a team that all of a sudden has gotten a little feisty. It only took losing a bunch of their players to get there. Booker's primary threat is scoring, but he is active enough (as opposed to some other shooting guards) to keep a high floor considering these minutes. He will be one of the highest-owned players on FanDuel.

Victor Oladipo - FD 6000 DK 6900
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 30.06 DK Proj. Pts - 31.4
I like the guys above much more, but there's a case for Oladipo tonight. Boston plays at the third fastest pace in the league, giving Orlando a chance for more than average touches on their part. I would need to feel confident Dipo's sat in the mid 30's by the end of the night, and that's a bit of a dice roll. But I think they'll want him out there for defensive purposes with a tougher Boston backcourt.

Consider Dion Waiters if he starts again and Langston Galloway if Melo and Zinger sit again

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SMALL FORWARD

Trevor Ariza - FD 5700 DK 5500
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 27.31 DK Proj. Pts - 30.51
If you think this game stays even a little bit close then you could see 40 or more minutes out of Ariza tonight. The Rockets should give him tons of run and the game could really fit his style. He'll be tasked with Durant which is no easy task, but the minutes are the key here. Houston plays him about as many minutes as anyone in the league in the right type of game. He's been shooting well from three of late and just the volume could boost Ariza tonight.

Kevin Durant - FD 10600 DK 10100
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 45.59 DK Proj. Pts - 48.47
Same game, same story. I've already written it five different ways with this game so there's no real reason to keep rehashing the same idea. Points, points, points. There are a lot of injury pieces we simply don't know about right now, but I suspect by the time it's all said and done there are enough ways to save in order to play KD, Russell and Westbrook. That would be some kind of big three. Durant and Westbrook alone are a perfect pairing in cash games considering just how much of the OKC offense and fantasy production they commandeer.

Tobias Harris - FD 5900 DK 6300
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 28.05 DK Proj. Pts - 29.61
Comes out more as a tournament play tonight, but I can get behind Tobias if the game were to stay close. Skiles has been playing him more minutes in the tighter affairs and he needs that kind of run to maintain an acceptable floor. He'll chip in rebounding with the right matchup and Boston has been shredded by opposing small forwards this season, allowing 8% more scoring and 7% more rebounding than league average to the position.

POWER FORWARD

A lot of uncertainty around this position tonight.

Aaron Gordon - FD 4400 DK 4900
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 20.57 DK Proj. Pts - 21.45
Though he's still in the starting lineup, it's very difficult to project his minutes with any degree of confidence. He's had run all over the place, from the low twenties to the high thirties and that's even after locking up the starting gig. But I'm erring on the side of minutes tonight for the guy. The Magic will need his athleticism against the Celtics and their fast-pace. Gordon can rebound and score, even taking a three ball from time to time. I like the price a great deal if he can just get to the upper twenties in minutes.

Tristan Thompson - FD 4500 DK 5200
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 21.68 DK Proj. Pts - 22.17
Just another example of the minutes problem. Thompson was buzzed some in his last game because the Cavs pulled away from Phoenix. And it's also tough to know if they are going to want to front him against Drummond here or go a little bigger. Another issue with Thompson is a whole lot needs to go right in order for him to hit value. He's their fifth option on offense when he's starting and really relies on the rebounding to make up for it. That's a lot of fortuitous bounces to count on. All in all, I think he's a fine play but there's risk.

Consider Serge Ibaka for all the reasons we've considered his teammates and opponents in this game.

Josh Smith - FD 4100 DK 4200
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 20.94 DK Proj. Pts - 21.97
I'm always hesitant to recommend a bench player because their fate is very much at the hands of possible bad rotations and the whims of the coach. That being said, because power forward is a weak shout today, I don't mind considering Smoove off the pine for the Rockets. He's been an excellent per minute player since coming back to Houston and has grabbed some of that run away from Terrence Jones. I think they'll call on him in this one too and you aren't paying a ton on FanDuel.

CENTER

Alex Len - FD 4800 DK 5200
Opponent - NYK
FD Proj. Pts - 29.12 DK Proj. Pts - 29.63
He saw a few less minutes thanks to a later game blowout at the hands of the Cavs, but expect to see Len's minutes creep back up in this one against the Knicks. Len's been crushing of late since entering the starting lineup at the four putting up up a 15/11/3 in the three games prior to Cleveland. The Knicks are a good matchup for centers, but not power forwards though Len switches back and forth based on the rotation. They are also worse if Porzingis were to sit again. Still love this price on Len.

Spencer Hawes - FD 4000 DK 4800
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 25.09 DK Proj. Pts - 26.61
Outside of a difficult matchup against Rudy Gobert, Hawes has been excellent since taking over the starting center position for the Hornets. He'd been playing a little more than 30 minutes per game and contributing both in the scoring department and rebounding. Though the Blazers have some agile bigs, Hawes is just too cheap with his kind of opportunity. The price has barely moved which is great for us. He's just another chance to fit those three big money players tonight.
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