Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 2/18/16
Welcome back for the first Post-ASB installment of the DFSR daily picks column. Thursday presents a short slate with just three games. All three matchups figure to be relatively low-possession affairs with at least one very-low Pace team in each game (and two of the three featuring a medium-Pace team as well). There are still some hidden value plays, with a couple of low-end punt/tourney play as well. Let’s have at it.
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Uncle Drew represents the best value at the PG position on a night with limited options. He’s high-end, but not elite from a price-point perspective. The DFSR projections show a high floor and quite a bit of upside. The matchup is also good – the Bulls are near the bottom of the league (26th) in terms of allowing PG fantasy scoring (Defense vs. Position or “DvP”). I’ll roll him out in all formats.
On many nights, I’d consider CP3 a luxury pick. Tonight the high price is justifiable, even with a tough matchup against the Spurs (4th in DvP vs PGs). His projected multiple is a 3rd-ranked 4.4x on FD (more on 2nd in bit). On DK, he’s by far the best value play due to his lower price. Hard to pass him up, and you should be able to make the numbers work with bargains a few other places.
If your stomach for risk needs feeding, our projection system likes Derrick Rose a lot on FD (he’s the previously-mentioned 2nd-ranked PG). I absolutely refuse to recommend him for cash games though, and I’d stay away entirely on DK where his price is a bit steeper.
Jamal Crawford - FD 5100 DK 5100
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 26.1 DK Proj. Pts - 28.29
Mr. Crawford is the top-rated SG on both FD and DK, and on the former it’s not even close. The matchup sucks, but he runs mostly against the opponent’s 2nd unit, and we like his ridiculous 5x floor over the last 7 games. He’s also spiked over 7x even as his price has ticked up. This is an across-the-board plug-and-play.
Danny Green - FD 4500 DK 4700
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 22.25 DK Proj. Pts - 25.22
Playing for the Spurs is generally easier than playing against them, and Thursday is no exception. Where the Clippers SGs are facing the top-rated DvP, the Clips themselves are dead- average. At these prices we see D. Green (the Texas version) near or above a 5x on both sites, with plenty of upside. He’s been playing a lot better lately, with just one dud in the last six, and we see a high floor here as well.
The DFSR projections also like J.J. Redick on both FD and DK, but I’m hesitant to stack the two against such a tough opponent, especially in cash games.
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Kawhi Leonard - FD 7700 DK 7500
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 37.68 DK Proj. Pts - 39.26
Mr. Two-Way went off last week (that may not sound quite right taken out of context) even as his price down-ticked on DK. He’s the best SF value on both sites, and again, it’s not even close. The Clips are statistically decent defending SFs, but I can’t get the thought of Paul Pierce trying to stop Kawhi out of my head (and concentrating well enough to write). Good floor with lots of upside. Roll with him in all formats.
Gordon Hayward - FD 7800 DK 7100
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 34.65 DK Proj. Pts - 36.88
The truly baby-faced Hayward (did he actually try growing facial hair at one point?) is another slightly-above-average investment that I feel compelled to recommend. He’s not as much of a value play on FD as a very safe place to invest some dollars. On DK at the lower price he’s an absolute must. Why is the system so high on him? Look no further than the Wizards’ league-worst DvP on SFs. He might well go off for a 6x, which at this price point is huge.
After just mocking him, I am going to point out that Paul Pierce is a possible punt play given his cost on both DK and FD.
Bobby Portis - FD 3900 DK 4400
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 19.33 DK Proj. Pts - 19.86
Perhaps my favorite play of the night on FD, the Bulls’ first big off the bench is going to get enough minutes to earn his keep, even on DK. The floor is rock-solid, with the potential for a massive multiple. The matchup is not great, but don’t let that keep you from getting this low-cost option into all your lineups.
Derrick Favors - FD 7400 DK 7000
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 35.51 DK Proj. Pts - 35.98
Mt. Gobert’s running mate is far-and-away the top PF value on DK, and not far behind Portis on FD. Favors has been an absolute beast over the last five, spiking twice for 6x, with just one dud. At the same time, his price hasn’t moved. The Jazz/Wiz interior matchup is gonna’ be a slugfest, and it’ll be interesting to see how up-and-down the game is, with Washington sporting the 4th highest Pace in the league and the Jazz the absolute lowest. Still, this is just too much value to pass up
I’d be remiss if I didn’t at least mention Tristan Thompson. The system likes him as a safe low-investment play on DK and a major value on FD.
Pau Gasol - FD 9000 DK 8700
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 39.04 DK Proj. Pts - 39.66
The clear choice at the position for the night on FD, Pau’s also a safe investment on DK. CLE is decent against Centers, ranking 10th at DvP. Unfortunately there are limited options tonight, and no terrific matchups. The floor’s high here, with the potential for a nice spike, even at this salary level.
Have to mention that the system loves Tim Duncan on DK at his low price – but he’s in the same can’t-recommend-in-good-conscience category as D-Rose for cash games.
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