Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 3/6/16

March madness is here! Ish. Doesn't it seem like March Madness starts later every year? Isn't March supposed to be a static month - starting around the same time as compared to the first day of the year each year? Are we going to be stuck in sports Hell for much longer, painstakingly going through the motions of basketball as a stand-alone (sorry, Durrell and the NHL crowd) until March Madness and baseball get here? Ah well. At least we can make a bunch of money playing daily fantasy sports. Might as well get to it.

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POINT GUARD

Holy heck, is this a mess of a day. There's so much uncertainty at basically every position today thanks to a host of factors that we'll get to piece by piece. We'll start with a point guard quagmire. Fun!

Russell Westbrook - FD 10700 DK 10800
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 48.91 DK Proj. Pts - 50.58
If you want safety for big bucks today, I'm thinking that looks like Sr. Westbrook. I won't play Curry in cash games, Harden is probably overpriced for bad match-ups (though I wouldn't be surprised to see him in some optimal lineups because of weird pricing things today), and on a short-ish slate, we're running out of options fast. Westbrook, meanwhile, is a beacon of consistency. He hasn't scored fewer than 40 fantasy points since January 22nd, and has plenty of big upside games sprinkled in along the way thanks to his permanent triple-double threatening. Milwaukee is about a league average match-up normally, but extended run against Jerryd Bayless makes this a sweeter proposition than usual. I think Westbrook is great in any format.

Deron Williams - FD 5600 DK 5600
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 27.61 DK Proj. Pts - 29.63
Emmanuel Mudiay - FD 5800 DK 5700
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 28.24 DK Proj. Pts - 29.37
Our projection system is partial to this pairing for very different reasons. The Mavs are prepared to play D-Will extended minutes again, it's just that game script has interfered with them doing so. His price remains depressed, and he's a big box score waiting to happen. The Nuggets have allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season, and this is as good a spot as any for that explosion to take place. Mudiay, meanwhile, has quietly re-added both minutes and usage recently - his 36 total shots across the last 2 games are the highest 2 game total of his career - and he's using more and more of the offensive possessions with Gallo on the shelf. High floor, high upside from where I'm sitting.

Patrick Beverley - FD 4900 DK 4700
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 24.58 DK Proj. Pts - 27.18
With Ty Lawson out of town, the Rockets seem to want to play Beverley 35+ minutes per game. If that's the case, Beverley is still under-priced, even at these increased salaries, against nearly any opponent. And he'll need every bit of that against the Raptors, who are a bottom 5 match-up for opposing fantasy point guards this season. Remember when I said it's a weird day? It's a weird day. Still, the Rockets will need to put their best foot forward to beat the 2nd best team in the East, and for now, that means more Beverley. I think he's a good 50/50 play, but lacks huge upside for big tournaments.

The huge upside pair: Willing to bet on the Lakers keeping it close enough to run D'Angelo Russell and Steph Curry? There are scenarios where pairing these two wins you a big tournament, and scenarios where Steph just eviscerates the Lakers and Russell can't get out of his own way, and scenarios where Steph sits this one out. We just don't know enough as of this writing to say. Don't sleep on Marcelo Huertas, who's been playing big minutes off the bench with Kobe and Lou out. Oh, did I mention they might be back today? This is one you'll just have to monitor as it gets closer to game time.
 

SHOOTING GUARD

Wesley Matthews - FD 4400 DK 4900
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 22.06 DK Proj. Pts - 25.19
Man, it's so boring to recommend guys like Matthews. He's shooting under 40% this season, his defense has slipped a bit, and the Mavs don't totally know what to do with him some days. That said, this is a classic "buy when others are fearful" situation. Matthews' true rotation looks to be about 34 minutes per game right now, and this FanDuel price in particular is just absurd at that total. 8x+ points per dollar upside is absolutely in play (he just did it in a worse match-up with Orlando) in a great match-up against the Nuggets, who have allowed the 10th most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season. Oh God, I can't write about Matthews anymore. It's too boring.

Dwyane Wade - FD 7700 DK 7200
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 35.31 DK Proj. Pts - 35.84
It's always nice, for double-up purposes, when the league office does us the favor of scheduling the same match-up inside of a week. We saw an utterly predictable outcome in the last Heat/Sixers game - the Sixers embarrassing 2-guard defense (Isaiah Canaan!?!?) couldn't keep up with Wade's old-man pick-up moves and occasional explosiveness, and he put up 40 fantasy points in 27 minutes of play. And that looks like his floor - some hot shooting from Philly could find him getting his full 33 minute run, and then the sky's the limit. Bosh's absence has just freed up too many shots for Wade to be priced under $8,000 at the moment, and he's the steal of the day on DraftKings.

Will Barton - FD 5800 DK 5900
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 29.21 DK Proj. Pts - 30.34
Will B. has disappointed since becoming anointed as the chalk shooting guard play, but our projection system thinks the reports of his fantasy death are premature. The minutes are there, the shot attempts are mostly there, but the production has been conspicuously absent. But the guy shot 17 shots last game, and he costs less than $6,000. Barton is also a good rebounder and passer for the position, and has some huge fantasy totals in increased roles earlier this season. I'm not ready to pour one out for him just yet, and am willing to roll the dice in a league average match-up with the Mavs.

The cheap punt option: Norman Powell is the latest Raptor to slide into the no-man's land Terrence Ross/James Johnson role. He looked pretty good in 22 minutes in his first start, and he might be some hot shooting from playing 26+ minutes. Tourney play only, but worth considering.

If Steph Curry sits, be prepared for a Klay-splosion(tm). I would not touch Thompson if Steph plays, but I'd probably play him everywhere if Curry is out.
 

SMALL FORWARD

Robert Covington - FD 5400 DK 5700
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 27.23 DK Proj. Pts - 29.97
It's typically impossible to know what's going on in Philly on any given day, but with Noel and Okafor ruled out for Sunday's game already, it looks like we'll be able to count on another healthy dose of Covington in this one. RoCo has played 30+ minutes in 5 straight games, and took a career high 18 shots against these same Heat just 2 days ago. This is a classic case where we need to look past normal defense vs. position stats. The Heat are now starting Joe Johnson at the 3, going from a plus defender in Deng to one of the league's worst in Slow Joe. It's the same Joe Johnson that helped Brooklyn reach the depths of worst team in the league against opposing shooting guards, and Covington already torched him in this same scenario. I'm playing Covington everywhere.

Kevin Durant - FD 10800 DK 10400
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 49.97 DK Proj. Pts - 53.07
Durant is actually the highest points per dollar big money player (according to our projection system) today, but Covington is just too good a play on a points per dollar basis to list 2nd. Still, this has all the makings of a huge game for Durant. The Bucks have allowed the 6th most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards this season, and you just know Durant is going to be all defensive and stand offish when he's inevitably asked about the rise of the Greek Freak as the next big thing in the NBA. I am pretty sure he's going to try and tear Giannis' heart out of his chest, and I'm pumped to have a piece of it.

Tobias Harris - FD 5800 DK 6200
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 28.93 DK Proj. Pts - 30.48
Harris is clearly in Stan Van Gundy's good graces at the moment, averaging 37 minutes in his last two games in spite of those games not being particularly close. Harris was just short of putting up 5x points per dollar in each of those games, but very easily could have been with another break or two. It's not a particularly good match-up with the Trail Blazers, but this is just a straight value play. He's worth more than this right now, and could be at his lowest price point for the rest of the season if these minutes continue.

POWER FORWARD

Zach Randolph - FD 6700 DK 6500
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 33.3 DK Proj. Pts - 33.9
Z-Bo hasn't been quite the fantasy force our projection system had envisioned with the departure of the Grizzlies entire team at the trade deadline, but all that's done is create a buying opportunity. I'm firmly of the opinion that his lack of domination has been has been much more a function of a cascading set of weird circumstances, and I think he's going to settled in as a high 30s fantasy points per game producer. His 35 fantasy point game against the Jazz is about what I expected - a huge floor game against a great defense with room for much more in the right match-up. The Suns are that match-up. They play fast and loose, and Randolph should really be able to post up either Len or Chandler at this point. I'm playing him tonight, and if it bites me, this will be the thing that makes me reconsider what Randolph's true fair price is.

Jabari Parker - FD 6000 DK 6500
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 27.34 DK Proj. Pts - 28.25
Meanwhile, we have a player dramatically on the upswing. Jabari followed up his total destruction of the Rockets with a dud against the Pacers (totally normal if you follow the trajectory of young players and what they do after huge games), and then was the guy we've come to expect against the Wolves, putting up 5+x points per dollar without breaking a sweat in 39 minutes on the court. Jason Kidd wants to play him right now, and is loving Parker's energy out there. It's a risk playing him against one of the league's best teams, but I think he gets left out there to do his thing, and that he rewards us with a nice fantasy total even in a tough match-up.

Jerami Grant - FD 5000 DK 5100
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 25.25 DK Proj. Pts - 26.76
No Okafor, no Noel - the Sixers really don't have many other tall players to even stand on the court. Grant was far from spectacular against the Heat in their last match-up, but our metrics say he ran bad from the perspective of expected FG% and defensive rebounding, and that last game was basically his floor in 38 minutes on the court. And it really wasn't that bad. I frankly think he's safer from a points per dollar perspective than Parker, and might just wind up playing him over Jabari in my double-ups.

For upside, I'm still considering both sides of the Lakers/Warriors game, especially if Steph sits.
 

CENTER

Alex Len - FD 5800 DK 6100
Opponent - MEM
FD Proj. Pts - 31.24 DK Proj. Pts - 31.79
Daily fantasy basketball can occasionally feel boring when a play is as obvious as this one, but then I remember that there are real human beings willing to literally hand their money over to me because they don't understand how math works, and I feel less bored and more bemused. Len embarrassed the now under-sized Grizz just last week, putting up 22 and 16 in just 34 minutes. Lest we think that was a fluke, he went ahead and dropped 31 and 15 against the Magic on Friday. What's the reason for not playing him in 50/50s? I'm honestly at a loss. I get fading him in big tournaments, but not playing him in cash games seems like lighting money on fire.

Hassan Whiteside - FD 8600 DK 8400
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 38.63 DK Proj. Pts - 39.3
Our system isn't enamored with Whiteside on a strictly points per dollar basis, but there are a number of reasons for that. First of all, his minutes are too damned erratic, which causes a lot of noise in trying to precisely predict his total in any given contest. Next, his situation has changed a ton from week to week - Bosh goes, Johnson comes, it's tough to make heads or tails of how that all eventually comes out in the wash. What we DO know here is that Whiteside is a points per minute animal, and that the 76ers are without the only 2 NBA-quality big men that they have. He put up an effortless 19 and 19 against them in a game that was never in doubt, and the drive-happy backcourt for Philly (Ish is back to his league-leading rate of drives per game) means we could see a triple double with blocks at any given moment. I'm playing Len in 50/50s, but will have to play Hassan in a few big tournaments for sure.

Another great upside play: Nikola Jokic. His price is held down by his tendency to get in foul trouble, but that should be less of an issue against a defensively minded center like Zaza. You can't touch him for cash games, but if he plays 34 minutes again he could absolutely outscore Len here at the same price.

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