Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 3/15/16

Breath catching time! I just got done entering my Monday lineups, which happened to be just about the craziest slate I've played in a while. Happy that I guessed right on the Lance Stephenson situation, but there is still a lot of basketball to be played and a lot of dominoes to fall. We shall see! Tuesday seems to be a fresh infusion of sanity. It's a relatively short slate, and there are relatively few unknowns that I gathered during my initial player audit (in case you didn't know, we examine every player every night to ensure we are caught up on every player's situation), and I'm feeling like I've got a pretty good handle on just about everything except those wacky Lakers. On to the NBA picks!

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POINT GUARD

Ish Smith - FD 6500 DK 6700
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 33.37 DK Proj. Pts - 34.36
Point guard is pretty deep for a 5 game slate, but I still like Ish best. When it comes to evaluating Smith, you need to look at one key stat: drives per game. He led the league with a staggering 14.5 drives per game in the month of January, and that dipped to a low of 8.8 per game at one period in February. In March, he's back up to 4th in the league, with 11.8 drives per game. He remains a value, though, because his price remains below its peak in January. This is a great match-up for Smith A) because the Nets have allowed the 7th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season, but B) because this is the precious game where the Sixers aren't favorites to be blown out. I love Ish in every format, and I'm anticipating a breakout game.

Darren Collison - FD 5300 DK 5200
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 27.46 DK Proj. Pts - 28.99
If I had to pick between Kings that qualify at point guard, I'd take Collison (though I like Rondo - more on him in the honorable mention area). Collison has played 32+ minutes and scored at least 25 FanDuel fantasy points in each of his last 3 games, and paid 6x and 7x in tough match-ups with the Spurs and Cavs in the last 10 days as well. The Lakers are as bad against shooting guards as they area everyone else, which is to say they're the 2nd most generous team in the league to them. Collison seems hyper safe to me, with upside if he's the guy Rondo gratuitously tries to assist all game.

Emmanuel Mudiay - FD 6100 DK 6600
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 28.51 DK Proj. Pts - 29.67
If history is any indicator, Mudiay will be underowned again tonight. It's kind of his MO this season. And, frankly, it's a tremendous opportunity for big tournaments. His stinker against the Wizards will make some gunshy, but he averaged 38 FanDuel fantasy points per game in the 5 games before that one, and he's chewed up a lot of the time of possession that Danilo Gallinari left behind. The Magic have allowed the 9th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season, and they might be starting CJ Watson again, which only sweetens the deal. Love Mudiay as an off beat play, and I think he's plenty safe as well.

Also considered: Rajon Rondo - the real life NBA version of a bumhunter. The stats haven't been there recently, but this has all the trappings of a game where Rondo dials in 18 assists and tries to remind people that he does a few things well on a basketball court. It helps that the Lakers have been awful against opposing PGs, allowing the 2nd most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season.

 

SHOOTING GUARD

Victor Oladipo - FD 7000 DK 7400
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 34.9 DK Proj. Pts - 36.54
When you believe in Magic, and I hope you do, you'll always have a friend wearing big red shoes... anything can happen, right before your eyes. Wait, what? Yes, Oladipo plays for the magic. I was recommending him for a daily fantasy basketball contest. Back on track. Before a bad game against the Trail Blazers, Oladipo had played high 30s minutes and put up high 30s fantasy points in 3 straight games, handily paying these prices for your double-up purposes. Yes, they were good match-ups - but this one is no slouch - the Nuggets have allowed the 7th most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season. Not elite upside on a points per dollar basis, but should be very solid for double-up purposes.

Monta Ellis - FD 6600 DK 5800
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 30.79 DK Proj. Pts - 32.04
It was a bad day to be a Pacer on Sunday, and a bad day to be a daily fantasy basketball analyst who said "the discussion around shooting guard safety stops and starts with Ellis tonight." Woops. For real, though - Ellis had been quite awesome before the team collectively took a day off against the Hawks, and I see no reason why he won't get back up to speed against the Celtics here. Avery Bradley has a good defensive reputation, but the Celtics have been basically league average against opposing shooting guards on account of their above average pace. Ellis had been on a 7 game streak where he averaged 5x+ points per dollar on these prices, and he's still playing huge minutes. I'm ready to call him a safe play once again.

Avery Bradley - FD 5200 DK 5000
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 23.83 DK Proj. Pts - 25.93
Basically a cheaper version of Ellis with a little less points per dollar upside, but a fine play if you just think shooting guard sucks (it does) and you want to be done with it. Bradley plays a lot of minutes, but is highly scoring dependent. This leads to few huge games, but his high minutes lead to a high floor. He will occasionally pile up defensive stats, vaulting him into higher territory. I'm decidedly not excited about this pick, but feel obligated to provide 3 guys. So, here you go!

Also considered: K. Bean Bryant, if he's playing. He's probably underpriced if he plays high 20 minutes, and could have a huge game against the lousy Kings defense. I like him a lot better than Bradley (if he plays, duh).

Baseball season is almost here. Check out the bottom of the article for our MLB ebook on setting daily fantasy baseball lineups as well as our MLB DFS strategy articles coming in the next couple weeks.

SMALL FORWARD

Evan Fournier - FD 5600 DK 5900
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 27.06 DK Proj. Pts - 29.91
I could write nearly the exact same write-up for Fournier as I did for Oladipo, so I'll spare you some of your cognitive processing power. Here's the skinny: Fournier had been paying nearly 6x points per dollar for the 3 games where he played his full minutes, and then the Magic had a bad day against Portland. Denver is a bad team, and he should play all of his minutes. They also don't really have a true small forward, leaving someone out of position to guard him. I'm going to play him everywhere.

Rudy Gay - FD 6200 DK 6100
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 30.7 DK Proj. Pts - 32.06
Sort of a mystery, here. Gay lost minutes to Casspi due to foul trouble against the Magic, and getting blown out against the Jazz, but had played 41 minutes in the two games prior to that. His price has gone way down, leaving the major question: which Rudy Gay will we see here? The Kings are in a total state of disarray, but this should be a game where they can hang. Gay will be up against an out of position Kobe Bryant or an out of position Jordan Clarkson, and he's shown a great propensity to bottom-feed against great match-ups. The Lakers have been the 2nd worst in the league against opposing small forwards, so this feels like a great spot to buy low.

Paul George - FD 8700 DK 8200
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 42.44 DK Proj. Pts - 45.11
Kawhi Leonard - FD 8900 DK 8500
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 42.14 DK Proj. Pts - 43.87
Feels kinda lame recommending both of these guys, to be honest, but I feel like I'm splitting hairs when trying to make a case for either, so here you are. George has ramped up his shots per minute in the last 5 games, shooting .56 shots per minute as opposed to the .48 he had shot prior to that. He's blended some good games with some stinkers, but the 65 fantasy point upside he flexed against the Hornets is legit. Meanwhile, Leonard has been the steadier of the 2, if less spectacular. I like George for big tourneys, and Kawhi for double-ups given that this game with the Clips should be fairly close.

If Robert Covington and Jerami Grant are out again, you should strongly consider Hollis Thompson. He was a flavor of the day before disappointing against the Pistons, but this is a much different case. The Nets are awful, he'd be covered by Bojan Bogdanovic, and he'd still likely play mid-thirties minutes. Paying 5x points per dollar almost seems like a foregone conclusion in that scenario, and I'd be a buyer.

POWER FORWARD

Thaddeus Young - FD 7000 DK 7000
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 36.11 DK Proj. Pts - 37.57
Man do I love this match-up for Thaddeus Young. He's been Mr. Consistency on a points per minute basis all season, and has really capitalized when the match-up is in his favor. You could certainly say that here. I suspect the Sixers will throw Nerlens Noel on Brook Lopez, leaving Thad to ply his trade against Carl Landry. I like Landry, and there was a time when he was an excellent defender, but he's a step slower in his older age, and Young should put up a total in the higher end of his range tonight (I'm thinking low 40s fantasy points, a slight step up from their recent match-up). Like all players in this game, he really benefits from the minutes security that you normally can't promise for the Nets. I think he's a great play in any format that you'd like.

Carl Landry - FD 4400 DK 3700
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 21.77 DK Proj. Pts - 22.09
He was a universal punt in his last game, and paid these prices with his eyes closed. Landry is still a rebounding machine, and has firmly established himself as a fantasy point per minute guy this season. It looks like he'll play 25 minutes in a plus match-up against the Nets. This one is just basic math, all hinging on whether or not Jerami Grant comes back to take his spot.

Jared Sullinger - FD 6600 DK 6000
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 33.18 DK Proj. Pts - 34.82
Sullinger has been an easy guy to lose track of this season due to the whims of Professor Brad Stevens, but it was hard to overlook the abuse he put on Houston's sad front court on 3/11. Sullinger put up a complete 24/12/4/2/4 line in just 32 minutes, reminding everyone that upside comes from price and opportunity, and that doesn't have to mean huge minutes. Sullinger is such a great candidate for a monster game precisely because he can fill it up in multiple categories, and when he's in these 30 minute rotations, the sky is really the limit. Can't really call him an off-beat play at this point, but he's got as much points per dollar upside at anyone in his price range.

Also considered: Nerlens Noel. Like, strongly, strongly considered. I gave Sullinger because I think he'll be a less popular play, but I think Noel makes a phenomenal option in a nice match-up with the Nets today.

 

CENTER

DeMarcus Cousins - FD 11100 DK 10500
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 52.31 DK Proj. Pts - 52.95
You've got to spend up somewhere today, and given less than stellar match-ups for CP3 and Giannis, I know I'll be investing in the Boogie-man. Cousins wasted no time in returning from his 1 game suspension, humiliating one of the league's best defensive centers in Gobert (and causing him to foul out), pouring in 57 fantasy points while stuffing every stat category. And in this game he'll be covered by... ?????? Like really, who is supposed to stop this man? The only risk here is that he's not quite as motivated to destroy them, but I suspect we're in for a huge line considering the Lakers have given up the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season. Every format guy for me.

Brook Lopez - FD 8500 DK 7900
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 38.84 DK Proj. Pts - 39.39
Just looks like a good day to spend up at center! I can imagine people will try to get away from Cousins in big tournaments to get some separation, and if you're one of them, take a look at BrooLo. Terrible nickname. Lopez was solid against Philly in the recent game he played against this exact lineup, and it could have been even bigger if the Nets weren't playing from behind in the 4th. Arguably as much upside as Cousins (at least on a points per dollar basis), and should have a fraction of the ownership.

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