The first weekend of the NCAA tournament was nothing short of crazy this year, producing some unlikely upsets, and some even more unlikely comebacks (Wisconsin and Texas A&M anyone?). There's just something in the air during March that just breeds craziness, and I'm guessing this second weekend will produce plenty more madness. That's where we come in, where we navigate the upcoming CBB games to deliver our favorite value plays for each night of action. We've got a shorter 4 game slate tonight, so finding good plays at discounted prices will be crucial. We had a good bit of success with our picks last weekend, so let's keep it rolling.
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Grayson Allen
FD - 9700 DK - 10000
Brandon Ingram
FD - 9000 DK - 9500
I don't think that you can go wrong with either of these guys tonight, so I'm just going to roll them together into one pick. Allen has the better matchup because Oregon struggles to defend the perimeter, and Oregon has 3-4 very athletic big men who can (at least decently) match-up with Ingram. The reason I like Ingram though is that he comes in at a much lower price (particularly on FanDuel), and has proven that when he's on, he can score on anyone. This game has an insane O/U of 156.5, so everyone is anticipating a shootout here. It's really a coin flip between these two, but if I had to choose I'd probably go with Ingram on FanDuel and Allen on DraftKings.
Elgin Cook
FD - 8700 DK - 7700
On the other side of this matchup we've got Elgin Cook, who is looking to build on his solid first weekend where he averaged 14.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg and 4 apg over the course of two games. The senior forward has really come on strong down the stretch, and he's averaging higher scoring, rebounding, assist and steal numbers over his last ten games when compared to his season averages. As I already mentioned, the O/U means this game should be played at a breakneck pace, which as you know is always a plus for DFS. Duke has struggled this season against teams with strong scoring front-courts, and I think Cook's potential makes him a must start on DraftKings, and at least deserving of a look on FanDuel.
Angel Rodriguez
FD - 7800 DK - 7600
Talk about a guy who had a great first weekend of the NCAA tournament. Rodriguez had the best weekend by far from a value standpoint, averaging an insane line of 26/4.5/4.5, not to mention an additional 3.5 steals per game. I love the matchup with Villanova because I think that Rodriguez will be leaned on pretty heavily to score in this one with his backcourt mate Sheldon McClellan drawing a matchup with Josh Hart on the perimeter. Ryan Arcidiacono is many things, but an elite defensive stopper is not one of them, so I think Rodriguez is in line for another bona-fide offensive performance. In the playoffs when everything is on the line, it's never a bad idea to go with the hot hand, and nobody has been hotter this CBB postseason than Rodriguez.
Jalen Jones
FD - 6900 DK - 7200
Another guy I really like today is Jalen Jones out of Texas A&M. He's vastly underpriced on FanDuel, so I like him on that site the most, but he's definitely still worthy of a play on DraftKings. He's the Aggies leading scorer and rebounder this season, and he draws an excellent matchup against an Oklahoma front-court that has been pretty weak this season because they rely pretty heavily on their guards to rebound. This plays right into a guy like Jones' strong suits because he can really get to the glass and presents a matchup problem on the perimeter. This game also has a sky-high O/U, so it should also be fast-paced and high scoring. I'd say Jones is about as close to a must play on FanDuel as it gets today.
Jordan Woodard
FD - 6400 DK - 7000
Another guy who's drastically underpriced (at least on FanDuel) is Jordan Woodard, the junior guard out of Oklahoma. Even while sharing the backcourt with the likes of Buddy Hield and Isaiah Cousins, Woodard has really impressed during the tournament, averaging a 16/4/2.5 line to go along with 2 steals per game. Maybe even more amazing, he's only committed 2 total turnovers in 67 minutes of action. He's been unsustainably (maybe) hot from the field in the tournament, but keep in mind he is a 45% 3-point shooter for the season, so he's proven to be one of the more consistent deep threats in all of college basketball. An expanded role in the offense makes me a buyer on Woodard, and I think he easily hits value again in this one.
Landen Lucas
FD - 5900 DK - 6300
This guy may very well end up having the highest value on the entire slate if he can stay out of foul trouble against Maryland today. Lucas has been on a solid run in the tourney, averaging a double-double and 2.5 blocks per game. The Austin-Peay game didn't really tell me much, but boy did this guy impress me in the game against Uconn. He saw 34 minutes of action (miles above his season average of just 17.6 mpg) and was really effective on the glass and as a rim protector. Maryland has a stronger front-court than the Huskies, so I think that Bill Self will need to rely on Lucas just as heavily, if not more in this matchup. If he gets another 30 minutes of run in this one, I see no reason why he wouldn't hit at least x4 value.
Admon Gilder
FD - 5000 DK - 4300
This guy certainly falls into must-play territory on both sites, and there's just no way around it. He's seeing minutes above his season average in the tourney, and has proven to be a solid spark off the bench for the Aggies by averaging 11 ppg over his last two games. I think the fact that he played more minutes than Anthony Collins against Northern Iowa is a great sign moving forward, and the fact that this game figures to be high scoring means that he should get more run again. Oklahoma is about average at defending opposing guards, but the price on Gilder is just too low (especially on DraftKings where it's almost insulting) to pass up.
Kamari Murphy
FD - 5300 DK - 5000
I don't love the matchup against a solid Villanova front-court, but the price just hasn't adjusted to Murphy's recent production, so I love his buy low potential today. He's seeing nearly 35 mpg during the NCAA tourney, a number that is well above his season average of 24.8 mpg so he's definitely getting more opportunities as of late. His biggest contributions so far have been on the glass and the defensive end, where he's averaging 10 rebounds, 3 blocks and a steal per game during the tournament. I know that Buffalo and Wichita State don't have as much firepower on their front-courts as the Wildcats, but I still think Murphy makes a great play that will allow you to spend up on some other guys.
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