The first weekend of the NCAA tournament was nothing short of crazy this year, producing some unlikely upsets, and some even more unlikely comebacks (Wisconsin and Texas A&M anyone?). There's just something in the air during March that just breeds craziness, and I'm guessing this second weekend will produce plenty more madness. That's where we come in, where we navigate the upcoming CBB games to deliver our favorite value plays for each night of action. We've got a shorter 4 game slate tonight, so finding good plays at discounted prices will be crucial. We had a good bit of success with our picks last weekend, so let's keep it rolling.
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Brice Johnson
FD - 9600 DK - 10500
UNC was my pick to win the NCAA tournament this year and Brice Johnson is a big reason why. Johnson was one of only two players to average a double-double in the ACC this season, and finished second in player of the year voting to Malcolm Brogdon. Johnson has stepped it up even more in the NCAA tournament, averaging 19.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg and a ridiculous 5 blocks per game (although 8 of those came against a 16-seed). Indiana does not have a defensively dominant front-court, and certainly don't have anyone who can guard Johnson on the inside. This game has an insane O/U of 158.5 at the time of this writing, so it's going to be nothing short of a track meet. Indiana also ranks 222nd in the nation in opponent field goal %, which bodes well for Johnson since he does all of his damage from the foul line down. I'm not really going out on a limb here, but I think Johnson ends up with the highest raw score of the night.
Malcolm Brogdon
FD - 8700 DK - 8500
The aforementioned ACC player of the year, Malcolm Brogdon has been one of the best and most consistent players in the country. He's Virginia's unquestionable leader, and he's relied on heavily by the Cavaliers as evidenced by his 28.5% usage rate. Virginia doesn't have the most explosive offense in the country, but should be helped in this game by Iowa St.'s terrible scoring defense, which is ranked 248th in the country. It's hard to quantify, but great players always seem to play their best in big games, and Brogdon has proven time and time again that he can perform when the lights shine brightest. I really don't see anyone from the Cyclones being able to check Brogdon in this game, and he's my second favorite high-dollar guy tonight from a PPD standpoint.
Domas Sabonis
FD - 9700 DK - 9900
His price is really up there, but Sabonis has been an absolute beast during the postseason, averaging a line of 20/13/3.5 to go along with 3 blocks/steals per game. And it's not like this is coming out of nowhere because the Gonzaga big man averaged 17 ppg and 12 rpg during the regular season. I know that Syracuse has a stifling scoring defense which is a little concerning, but Syracuse also ranks 213th in the NCAA in rebounding margin, which means Sabonis could really have a big game on the glass. Sabonis abused Utah's strong front-court last time out so he's proven that he has the ability to produce against strong, defensive-minded teams. I don't like him as much as Johnson, but I do see him having a good game tonight so he deserves a mention.
Joel Berry II
FD - 6800 DK - 7100
I'm going to be recommending quite a few guys from this game due to the high O/U and quite frankly because of the way the Tar Heels have been playing over the past two weeks. Berry has been extremely consistent down the stretch, scoring in double figures in his last 10 games while eclipsing the 20 FD point mark in 8 of those 10 games (including 5 in a row). Berry has really seemed to eclipse Marcus Paige in terms of reliable, outside production and Roy Williams has really begun to turn the team over to the sophmore guard. His price has remained relatively low despite his recent production, and he's probably the safest guy on the entire slate to hit value. I like Berry in all formats and will play him in all of my lineups.
Anthony Gill
FD - 7800 DK - 7400
His price keeps on climbing, but I'm still big on Gill because he's still underpriced (for some reason) given his recent uptick in usage and production. He's leading the Cavs in scoring and rebounding in the NCAA tournament, and he's averaging about two more shots per game when compared to his season average. Iowa St. does have a pretty decent front-court, but their scoring defense suggests that Gill could have another big game scoring the basketball. Assuming he can stay out of foul trouble, Gill is another guy who's about as safe as it gets to reach value today.
Justin Jackson
FD - 6000 DK - 6500
I told you I'm going heavy on the Tar Heels today, and Justin Jackson is another guy I think is vastly underpriced for the minutes and production that he puts up. Jackson didn't have a great ACC tournament which caused his price to drop down to where it currently stands, but make no mistake, Jackson is a guy who could easily be priced 1k-1.5k higher. He's Carolinas' swiss-army knife on offense, and is sometimes even relied on to initiate the offense (how many forwards have multiple games with 6+ assists?). Jackson creates matchup problems all over the court, and because his price has dropped so low you've got to give him a look in a game that should be the highest scoring of the evening.
V.J. Beachem
FD - 5800 DK - 5600
Kind of a different, off-beat play is V.J. Beachem out of Notre Dame. His price tag certainly hasn't caught up to his recent production in the tournament, which is mainly due to Notre Dame tightening their rotation. Compared to his season averages, Beachem is averaging about 4 more minutes, 5 more points, and 2.5 rebounds per game more in the NCAA tournament. I know it's a small sample, when the reason for these increases is so apparent, I think the run is sustainable. Wisconsin is certainly not the ideal matchup in terms of pace and interior presence, but there aren't exactly any bad teams left in the tournament to stack players against. This is mainly a price-mismatch pick, and I think Beachem will be overlooked by many.
Isaiah Hicks
FD - 5500 DK - 5400
I've been all over this guy for a couple of weeks now, and while his price has risen a bit over that time, it still has not caught up to what his true value is. He's been seeing a steady increase in minutes for quite some time now, and has now doubled Kennedy Meeks in minutes in his last two games. While he's still only seeing minutes in the low 20's, Hicks has been an absolute PER beast, putting up a very solid 22.90 PER on the season. I already mentioned Indian's weak defense, which is something Hicks should also be able to take advantage of. Roy Williams should give him more minutes today to take advantage of their size on the front-court, so you should make sure to get Hicks into all of your lineups.
Steve Vasturia
FD - 4700 DK - 5500
A guy near the minimum price tag (on FanDuel) who gets 35+ minutes per game on a consistent basis? Sign me up. Vasturia is a guy who's inconsistency on the season has really kept his price down, but he's a proven cog in Notre Dame's high-powered offense (12 ppg). He hasn't necessarily set the world on fire in his first two tournament games, but the potential is there, and for these prices I might be willing to bite. Wisconsin is stingy on the interior, but rank 318th in the country in 3-point field goal defense, if Vasturia gets hot from the outside he could really pay off big tonight. He's more of a tournament play for me, but I could see taking him in cash games too in order to spend up on some of the bigger guys.
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