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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/3/16
And just like that it's baseball season again. It feels like we never even left the grass fields, crack of the bats and a season that feels like it lasts a lifetime. This first Sunday only has three games on it so this is going to be a shorter version of our daily picks. We'll have a blowout post for Monday's big slate, but this is a good place to get started. Let's get down with our first baseball picks of the season.
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PITCHER
Francisco Liriano FD 8400 DK 9300
Opponent - STL (Wainwright) Park - @PIT
FD - 45.74 DK - 25.04
Liriano is coming off one of the best pitching seasons of his career. He finished 2015 with a 3.16 xFIP while striking out 9.88 batters per nine and decreasing his walk rate significantly off the career averages. It's a pitcher headed in the right direction for sure, especially when it comes to his control. He heads into this short slate Opening Sunday as the heaviest (by only degrees) favorite at -116 with a 6.5 o/u, the lowest on the board. The Cardinals were one of the worst teams in baseball against lefties last season, though they are in line for some improvement there in losing Heyward and moving Piscotty into the two slot. Still, they aren't a power impact team and PNC Park is solid for pitchers. On a tough day our system has Liriano as the top pts/$ play.
Adam Wainwright FD 8600 DK 8700
Opponent - PIT (Liriano) Park - @PIT
FD - 36.79 DK - 18.72
I don't typically like pairing pitchers facing off against each other because it greatly diminishes the win expectation on a site like DraftKings where you are rostering two of them. There's also the added piece of Wainwright coming off an injury-shortened season. I understand the risk here for sure. He does have a couple of things working in his favor though. He's going in a pitcher's park, won't have to face the DH and faces a Pirate team league average against righties last season. I wouldn't play him on FanDuel, it's all Liriano for me there, but on DK in cash games in the second SP slot I think you can take the risk relative to price.
CATCHER
Travis D'Arnaud FD 2800 DK 3600
Opponent - KC (Volquez) Park - @KC
FD - 5.78 DK - 4.6
Fair warning: You are going to see a bunch of Mets on this list today. The reasoning is simple. They face, by far, the worst pitcher on the slate in Edinson Volquez. It's really that easy and in baseball targeting the weakest arm on the slate is typically the way to go. d'Arnaud is coming off a sophomore campaign that saw him put up a low .800's OPS though in less than 300 PAs. Travis is slightly better against lefties for his career, but platoon neutral all things considered and if he's slotted sixth in the lineup then you are looking at a decent plate appearance expectation.
Strongly consider John Jaso if he's hitting leadoff for the Pirates
FIRST BASE
Lucas Duda FD 2600 DK 4200
Opponent - KC (Volquez) Park - @KC
FD - 9.07 DK - 7.06
He's a must play on FanDuel and looks seriously mis-priced on that site coming right out of the gate. Duda's very much a known commodity at this point, putting up almost an identical 2015 as his 2014. The K's were up some and BB's down, but not to alarming degrees. He was actually better against lefties last season, but that's not a career trend. He's a career .364 wOBA guy against righties with an .842 OPS. Volquez gets bombed by righties and this matchup is choice for Duda. It's a little closer on DK, but he's the easy cash game play on FanDuel.
Consider Logan Morrison on the cheap
SECOND BASE
Neil Walker FD 2500 DK 4100
Opponent - KC (Volquez) Park - @KC
FD - 8.53 DK - 6.79
Much like the other Mets I've already listed here Walker is close to a must play on this opening slate when it comes to cash games. Of course in tournaments you can go for separation somewhere else. But I don't see how you get away from 3-4 Mets in your 50/50 lineups. Not when the other squads are throwing out aces and the Royals are putting out a guy with a 4.26 xFIP in 2015 who struck out less than seven batters per nine and walked more than three. Walker is significantly better against righty pitching for his career and projects to hit in and around the middle of the order.
Consider Josh Harrison
SHORTSTOP
Alcides Escobar FD 2300 DK 3600
Opponent - NYM (Harvey) Park - @KC
FD - 6.75 DK - 5.59
Welcome to another season of seeing way too much of Mr. Escobar. It was a running joke last season between him and Jhonny Peralta in our shortstop plays. The thing about Escobar as we said ad nauseum last season, the batting order placement for him is the whole name of the game. As long as the Royals insist on running him out there in the leadoff slot (even though he can't really you know, get on base) makes a huge difference. Getting an extra expected plate appearance each game gives such a boost to the raw expectation that at a weak offensive position you can roll with him on almost that idea alone. Plus he's free and there are few other options on this slate.
Consider Asdrubal Cabrera I suppose, but if Alcides is hitting leadoff that's the only guy I'm playing short of GPP stacking situations.
THIRD BASE
Josh Donaldson FD 4800 DK 4300
Opponent - TB (Archer) Park - @TB
FD - 8.56 DK - 6.8
Look, this is a tough Opening Day slate of DFS baseball. There are only three games and most of the pitchers going are live arms. That's the nature of the game when Aces or Ace-Lites go in the first couple of days. So do I like playing Donaldson against an arm like Archer? No. But the former has some advantages here. He projects to hit second in the lineup which will give him plenty of plate appearances and Archer does have some walk issues (as compared to the other arms here) which can lead to shorter stints in the game and extra PAs. I think you are getting so much savings on the Mets guys too that paying up for Donaldson and taking the chance isn't a huge deal considering he's the best offensive third baseman on the slate even with the platoon disparity.
Consider Evan Longoria
OUTFIELD
Curtis Granderson FD 3400 DK 4500
Opponent - KC (Volquez) Park - @KC
FD - 10.16 DK - 8.27
Yoenis Cespedes FD 3800 DK 4600
Opponent - KC (Volquez) Park - @KC
FD - 8.93 DK - 7.29
Sick of the Mets yet? Not me. On DraftKings where you can play five players from one team, getting this many Mets into your lineup is perfectly reasonable on this short slate. Staking your claim with them as a team against the worst pitcher on the slate. Granderson, from the leadoff slot, is a must play for me on this slate. His biggest issue is the K, but that risk decreases against a guy like Volquez. Edinson allowed a high 4's xFIP to lefty batters last season and I don't see anything to suggest he's suddenly changed his style.
Cespedes meanwhile provides the power bat from the middle of the order and Volquez was equal opportunity mediocre against righties as well last season. It's really hard to keep saying the same thing over and over when it comes to the Mets, but stacking them will be the chalk play today.
Jose Bautista FD 4500 DK 4300
Opponent - TB (Archer) Park - @TB
FD - 8.69 DK - 6.82
The pricing on this opening slate is very soft which makes sense from the sites' perspectives. It incentivizes folks to get money in early and not get totally dusted in the first few days of the season. But it also means we can get some of the heavy hitters without losing too much across the rest of the lineup. That's the long and short of rostering a guy like Joey Bats today. Simply put: you can. He's not that expensive and after the Mets guys he's the highest raw point projectons on the slate.
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- Braves Pirates Baseball: (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)
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Could you add players name on here as I’m not very familiar with baseball, this will be my first time entering in a baseball contest. Thanks!
Thanks for reading. Our members have access to all projections for every player.
I think he means that’s a picture of Bautista but if you didn’t know that you wouldn’t know he was 🙂
Oh jeez. The naming script screwed up. I’m fixing now. Woops.
Fixed. Sorry about that.
Thank you so much!
I play basketball and you guys kill it , do you think you’re system is comparable or better for baseball.
Thanks for the nice words. We are really excited with what we’ve put together for baseball this season. We’ve had success in the past and have added a bunch of new inputs this season. Know this: baseball is a much different animal than NBA. The swings (no pun intended) are much bigger
Thank god for baseball season. Hockey and BB killed me. Will take a while to get use to the new FD scoring system but its baseball. I look forward to another season with you.
PLAY BALL!!!!
SF, Murf
Great article. I was thinking a lot like you, so that should be a good thing. I agree about the Mets. When I saw Volquez starting, I knew right away that I want some Mets. As a Reds fan, I saw roo much of Volquez give up the long ball and BB to much in the past. Just glad MLB is back!
Thanks Matthew. Always get a little nervous about the first couple articles of the year for a sport just because it’s such a drastic switchover. Good to hear the system’s passing the sniff test to start. We are pumped about projections this season and have made a number of changes to our data that we think will push things even higher.
Jaso not listed on draftkings
In our system? I’m seeing him there. 4.51 projection. You aren’t seeing him at C
Gotcha listed in OF on draftkings
You have him listed as C on your draftkings tool though
John thanks for this catch. It actually pointed out an error in positional data we were pushing through. I’ve corrected now and Jaso is OF in DK system.
No problem, one of things I prefer draftkings in MLB for is multi position eligibility but since he didn’t catch a game last year he’s not eligible there yet. Was one of the better values everyday last year at C especially batting leadoff most of time.
ok so this is my second year back with you guys, had a good last season, what % do I have of actually winning some cash using your system,?,
Draftkings list Jaso as OF because he made his only 8 starts in field last year as OF. His only games played in OF of his career. No play for me on draftkings even if he bats leadoff.
Basketball system picks killed again last night! Baseball is finally here. Can’t wait to see what optimizer can do here and live the new features!
Great article Doug! Beyond excited for the start of MLB. Look forward to the frequent up and hopefully less frequent downs that MLB brings each year. In regards to this slate, Archer is always a pitcher with huge upside and downside. Archer can blow up quickly which makes the Blue Jays stack pretty interesting to me. Good luck everyone!
Hey guys. Opening day! Anyone know of a site that keeps updated on SPs? I know there’s several for NHL Gs. Good luck everyone!
BaseballPress is pretty fluid
Draftkings optimizer will not let you lock 2 pitchers.
Yup. Going to be an issue for today but we should have it corrected by tomorrow. It was part of a validation process. Working on it but can’t promise it’s up in time for lineup lock
Scratch that. Devs were able to fix. Can lock in two SPs on DK now.
Donaldson not in the lineup?
What happened to the MLB optimizer. It stopped working.
Refresh page. Data glitch. Working through the bug now, but projections are back up
Not sure what you mean. Not in the Jays’ lineup or not in optimal lineups?
Sorry…I meant he wasn’t listen in the blue Jays lineup earlier.
What are your thoughts on Selecting batters that are going against your pitcher? For example. I’m going with Archer but also have Bautista and Donaldson in my lineup.
Don’t recommend on fanduel but on short slate like today on DK is ok.
One place only listed 8 jays hitters he’s batting 2nd
John,
I am a little confused. What place only listed 8 Jays hitters? Are you referring to our projections?
Your stuff is fine. Rotowire daily lineups only listed 8 forgot to put Donaldson in lineup
Rotowire just fixed their page
YESSSSSS BASEBALL TIME!!!!!!!!!
Lets win some $$$$$$$ Good luck to everyone!
fading wainwright, volquez, and stroman in GPP’s today…good luck all
Do u recommend using the lineup projector for 50/50, tournaments, head vs head, ? I’m using Fanduel
Barring some late inning hitting looks like day 1 pitching on point but batters not connecting. Such a short slate makes it tough if you back the wrong horse.. The Mets… On to tomorrow…
Yeah Volquez by far worst pitcher going into day. Mets so chalky and rightfully so. His velocity is up over career averages I think. But basically need Mets to scrape together a run and these lineups cash 50/50s
So close on gpp. Had forgotten about the new points system. When I looked we were like almost 30pts from gpp lines but new system made that easy to catch up with. Cespedes gets on and probably cash all gpps. I’m sure the CASH games hit easy.
First day and I cashed $, not alot but a win is a win., THANK YOU