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Daily Fantasy Baseball News and Updates for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/4/16
Welcome to the daily MLB updates and news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!
Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock today.
By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the batting lineup changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!
What We Know
The Houston/ New York has been postponed
So this one is obvious. Don't play guys from this game as they will accrue zero points. Do you like my preachy tone? Weather is much like late breaking injury news in the NBA. It's a critical thing to follow leading into game time.
Some rain in Baltimore
We are many hours out from this game so it's tough to know if it will impact the game. One worry is the likelihood of rain increases as the day goes on. It looks to ramp up around 3PM and keep going until the evening. For me, this is enough to think about taking the game out of contention when I'm putting together lineups in the optimizer. Specifically, Chris Davis and Miguel Sano are guys showing up a lot. I'd hate to get zeros here even though the Baltimore guys look ver juicy.
Tournament Stacks
Cincinnati Reds
I wrote about this in the picks last night and they are guys showing up all over our optimizer this morning. It makes sense. They are coming very cheap across the board and have one of the better pitching matchups on the day in Jeremy Hellickson. He's a pitcher with a career mid-4's xFIP who's allowed more flyballs than grounders. That's bad news in a park like Great American that boosts power all around and was actually right with Coors last season in park factor home runs. The savings you get on the Reds in this matchup will have a lot of people on them.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Paul Goldschmidt is almost good enough alone to warrant a D-Back stack on this slate. And while that's overstating things for sure, it isn't by much. He's a true lefty crushed and the D-Backs are one of the highest expected totals on the board going against Jorge de la Rosa. Outside of Goldie though, they do have cheaper options in Segura, Castillo and Yasmany Tomas who can do damage against southpaws.
Washington Nationals
Much like Goldie above, Harper falls into that same superstar class and he's underpriced heading into the season. I like the matchup against Teheran who pitches to a fair amount of contact. That's great news for Revere, Harper, Daniel Murphy and some other parts of the middle of the order.
Sneaky Pitcher
Raisel Iglesias FD 6400 DK 8900
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @CIN
FD - 35.86 DK - 19.47
I didn't mention him in the main picks article, but I could have. Iglesias is coming off a season that saw him strike out almost ten batters per nine, walk less than three and put up an xFIP of 3.28. those numbers are excellent, hidden somewhat by an ERA in the low 4's. He induces a bunch of groundballs which is great for pitching in Cincy and today faces a Philly team that's um, weak.
The "Every Lineup" Guys
Clayton Kershaw FD 11000 DK 12900
Opponent - SD (Ross) Park - @SD
FD - 52.72 DK - 31.08
He's such an easy pick today that I almost feel awkward writing him up again. Because the pricing is so soft to start and pitchers account for so many points, it's difficult to fade Kershaw on this slate. He's pitching in a fantastic pitcher's park against a team that projects for very little power independent of home park. He's a big favorite in a game with a very low expected total. Run him.
NOTE ON THESE HITTERS - With Baltimore/ Minnesota looking iffy, I took those players out of the optimal lineups even though Chris Davis and Miguel Sano were looking to be everywhere.
Bryce Harper FD 4800 DK 4500
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @ATL
FD - 14.14 DK - 10.99
Not a great hitter's park, but like I said in the picks, he's underpriced to start the season. He's an especially great play on DraftKings, but I'll likely play him everywhere. Goldschmidt is only not on here because there is other fantastic first base value and Harper is the other big bat to get in there.
One other note: There are big differences between DraftKings and FanDuel pricing so the optimal lineups are looking quite different.Â
These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.
Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!
image sources
- BryceHarper2015SD001: By Johnmaxmena2 (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
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SECRETS TO CRUSHING DAILY FANTASY FOOTBALL!DON'T SET ANOTHER LINEUP BEFORE YOU READ THIS BOOK.
The FD $200K tournament is not even half full two hours before lineup lock. Guessing this will be the only big $2 tourney of the season. Better play up!
Good call. That’s a lot of overlay.
Great Stuff you guys! As always!
LOL All the sharks projections systems are scared to buy in for hundreds of entries
This is probably a stupid question but does the Lineup Optimizer work with an IPhone?
Yup! It does.
Span is a giant now.
Argh, My bad. Brain working overdrive right now. I meant Revere and had Span in my head because I was going to write about a Giants stack as well. Thanks for the catch. Fixed.
All good. You guys do incredible work. Just wanted to let you know.
Grandal on the DL. Optimizer doesn’t reflect that.
Great catch. Has to do with how we were labeling DL information. I’m correcting now and he (along with a a bunch of other guys I’m realizing) will be gone shortly.
Doppler says that Baltimore will be bombed with rain 1 hour into the game. Wiping that game off.
Does the pro tool exclude the postponed games automatically ? Also what’s the best way to put together a lineup I used the tool yesterday and bombed but again I have no clue what to look for
When we get word on a postponement we push new data as soon as possible with the game eliminated.
Is the balitmore game canceled?
No, but it has rain in the forecast about 1 hour into the game.
Got to love opening day shifts.
Doug, would you just avoid the BAL/MIN game completely for a cash game lineup?
Seems to be a lot of overlay. Guessing that’s what happens when the state of New York can’t play.
Good luck to everyone!! Lets win some $$$$$$$
NY can only play in FantasyAces right now…that’s why I post Aces L/U’s on here in case there are any stragglers or people looking to try a different format. Cheers!
Good luck everyone!
FantasyAces GPP L/U for today with ownership
P Zack Greinke (ARI) 15 11:56 am 0.00
P Sonny Gray (OAK) 12 11:56 am 0.00
C Welington Castillo (ARI) 14 11:56 am 0.00
2B/SS Joe Panik (SF) 21 11:56 am 0.00
2B/SS Zack Cozart (CIN) 8 11:56 am 0.00
1B/3B Joey Votto (CIN) 22 11:56 am 0.00
1B/3B Brandon Belt (SF) 20 11:56 am 0.00
OF Jay Bruce (CIN) 18 11:56 am 0.00
OF Yasmany Tomas (ARI) 6 11:56 am 0.00
OF Denard Span (SF) 18 11:56 am 0.00
Util Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) 25 11:56 am 0.00
Bumgarner was treated for the flu yesterday….with a subpar spring, what’s everyone’s thoughts on him today. Great match up, but now I am leery
This just in Madison Bumgarner has the flu will pitch through it. I have Brewer Stack today. Gone win me some money!!!
also put some money on Brewers +160
Can you take that bet back? Im pretty sure major league teams are required to suit up 9 actual ball players for a starting lineup
Brewers are going to put up a big number within the first five innings!
As I wrote this he is throwing up in the bullpen. He looks like shit. Live at Millerpark
Thanks David….could NOT have gotten that detailed info anywhere else. I am going with Kluber now on early slate.
I removed him as well. I hope I do not regret it. I may not even use Max at the price.
Kept Bum in. A little opening day meds, maybe juiced him up
BOS/CLE postponed. Nothing like a little heads up, folks! Took a flier on Kluber in one lineup, and now that is wasted. Happy that I have no other impact.
Yeah I just had to go make sure I didn’t have any from Boston or Cleveland and I don’t.
If the BAL/MINN game rains out as well should be an easy cash day on FanDuel.
Ugh, i took out all my Baltimore guys but inadvertently left in Dozier. *flush*
Game may still play. Pretty crappy by the team to wait till start time to roll out this announcement. I’d be ticked off if I showed up at the park and had to wait till the storm passes later to play the game… or show up and they cancel. Just feels like a cash grab to get parking, concessions..
The start of today’s game is being delayed by the threat of inclement weather. An expected start time will be announced as soon as possible.
Big thanks to the guys up the page with the late Bumgarner news. Managed to swap him out. He’s almost 50% owned in some GPPS I am in on DraftKings and currently showing minus points through 2+ innings and almost 60 pitches. News made him an easy fade.
Exactly Tom, I took him out of my lineups also based on the news above and that will help me alot tonight! THX Guys!! I love this site and the comments…Been winning in NBA tournaments since I started coming to this site and hope my run continues to MLB. VERY helpful…let’s get this money!
I agree Thomas. We should give David a cut if we end up winning $$. I would have had Bum in all of my earl slate games if he had not posted here. I yanked him in all just in time.
@ Thomas,
Yes, so glad I did as well. He is owned in over 60% in all my cash games. He currently his 1.95 points and roughly 70 pitches through three innings
Sonny Gray is out tonight with food poisoning. Adjust accordingly
Agreed on the great info on Bum. i still stayed away from any Mil stacks however. Not until they show they can actually hit in the majors.
Bum only owned in 5% on the GPP slate for fanduel
On fan duel what total points do you shoot for ? Is 120 a good starting point or should I think higher ?
Martin is out tonight Doug. Thole In catching for dickster. Martin still in all optimal lineups . It’s annoying when I always reload data because I lose the guys that I lock in and
Block from lineups. Anyway around this?
Awesome stuff by the way. Love the weather and wind
Features
Yup. I’m working on why his projection isn’t updating. He’s dumped in our system but when pushed live his projection stays. Working on it now.
Fixed Martin and some other odds and ends.
Good work Doug. Loving the opt.
I would like to second that feature.. It may be way to advanced to add in????? but agree ( especially late 5-10 minutes before lock) pain to have to go tick/untick guys you either want to lock or not play at all.
I think 130 or above should be the goal to cash in a GPP. However, I think you need closer to 150 to win a GPP
New to DraftKings but through the first week noticed MUCH easier to cash in GPPs in the NBA vs FanDuel. Anyone know if the same sort of “being easier” applies to baseball as well? Bumgarner is a perfect example. 5-6% ownership on FanDuel but 40-50% on DraftKings. I assume some of that is swap potential? but looks like you are going to get 15fp on DraftKings and that’s not nearly enough for SP1 at $9200.
There it is . Thx Doug. U da man as always.
harper with a dong!!! NICE!
hey guys! Question… for nba “value” is 5x value in FanDuel. How does it work for MLB? What is “value” for pitchers? and “value” for hitters? I was thinking maybe it is 5x value for pitchers… and 3x value for hitters? That would give you a score of 125.
Is it right to assume that 125 is equivalent to a 300 in NBA? thanks trying to figure out how MLB scoring works, value, etc. If someone can please inform me! Thanks!
PS. BRYCE HARPER WITH THE BOMB!!!
Think it depends on what you are playing? Like CASH or GPP. I only do GPP so “value” for me is 6x. I’m shooting for 360 on FanDuel NBA and 300 on DraftKings. Math tells me almost always going to have to be above those scores to win a GPP. Obviously some wiggle room if you know a really cheap guy is going to go for 7x-10x.
and Span with a DONG! DFSR on fire so far.
Yeah. Full day Optimal lineup looking hot
Man. The high owned giants are killin us. Bomb after bomb lol. Maybe that was the stack over Cincinnati? But still tons of time!
Yeah I should have written them up. I actually did stack them in a couple of spots. Wrote up Panik and Span in main picks. Should have included them here because I liked them a lot. Stacked Cincy way more though.
I’ve never played baseball DFS until today. I’m at 93 with everybody still playing and Kershaw, Segura, and Castillo still to play. Should I cash in the big $2 tourney on fanduel?
Going to dip my toe in the late games tonight. Never played daily fantasy baseball either. But with no NBA it’s a good day to check it out. Sounds like the optimizer is crushing it for the day games…fingers crossed for tonight!
Man. This was my first try at baseball and I am doing terrible. I should have picked the whole Giants team…lol
I take a slightly different approach with MLB. I tend to run more of a variety of lineups. In NBA I typically run just one cash game lineup. For MLB I’ll run the top 2-3 lineups minimum in cash games.
This is for two reasons. One, MLB allows a bit more time to build and export lineups as compared to NBA with late news. Two, the swings (no pun intended) are wilder in MLB and I like to hedge some on the different subtleties in the top lineups.
Have Sano , Suarez and Bruce in all of my lineups. All three have ZERO going into the late innings. I think I had better stick to basketball.
I knew it was going to be a long year for the Reds but man hitter friendly park on opening day and struggling a dude (Jeremy Hellickson
) whose ERA has been close 5.00 the past three seasons is just awful.
Yea. Makes me wonder why the optimizer stacked them. Bad move and I fell for it/
Stacked them because Hellickson among the worst pitchers on the slate and Great American BP one of best hitter’s parks in all of baseball. Red guys got there too with last inning.
Votto and Suarez both with 0 for me
and don’t root for/against the Nats but what a jinxed team. Revere injured in the first 4 innings of the season.
Silly question about how the optimizer works with baseball. In a 3/4 game series, how are projections for hitters accounted for each day? I assume things can drastically change when a new series is started, but is it just opposing pitcher that impacts the projects in a series? Just seems so wildly unpredictable on a daily basis…one top guy goes 0-4 I’m guessing ruins your night.
Votto and Reds showing signs of life….. thank goodness.
Yea this late surge is helping us out
Could have been even better if Phillips didn’t resort to some AWFUL base running.
Here we go! First time trying MLB. Good luck on the evening/late slot!
Can’t wait for this talk to move to a premium section
Yeah I agree I’m seeing a lot of guys that are in baseball as well , if there wasn’t this section though I probably would not have signed up lol glad I did
Benknapple is premium! Congrats man!
Reds with the late surge when we were all just sad watching the stats… haha LETS GET THIS W!!! Kershaw Time!!
PS. Afternoon Slate 4:05 et. Slate Killed!! 141!!! Cashed in everything including 41st in a Mini Squeeze I was in. Good work guys! Lets get this all day main slate now! and the late one lol #Greedy
It was rain forever according to radar at 2:30pm…how did the Baltimore game get started??? Ouch!
Going to take some time getting use to these scores on FanDuel with the new points system. Guy in my gpp is at 200 with two batters to go later tonight. Crazy to think of baseball in the mid 200s.
main line was awful in my humble opinion
What are you referring to?
Kershaw Davis Sano line smh but hey we win some and lose some. NBA has been fire. Doug I’m very impressive but how you interact with us.
What did you run? I ran DFSR lines and cashing in DraftKings early unless something crazy happens in Os game… and FanDuel is looking really good all day.
Maybe there was an update after I locked this in but I went with the last optimized that had
Kershaw/mesoraco/Davis/Phillips/Suarez/segura/Harper/sano/Bruce
Sitting at 78, well behind the cash line in the GPP I’m in. Can’t complain too much – the afternoon slate was great and NBA has been on fire.
Ah yeah. I had recommended taking out the Min/Bal game because of weather concerns so the line looked a bit different.
What was the last optimized in the main slate? What kinda score does it have right now?
I don’t know if I got the last lineup??? but I’m at 123 on FanDuel with two batters to go plus Kershaw.
and looks like you didn’t fade the O’s game. That’s the difference.
Yup – work beckoned and when I got back to fade, it was too late. Win some, lose some. Like I said, can’t be mad cuz DFSR has been on fire lately. Keep up the great work gents
I don’t know about what scores get what with this yet. Right now doing alright with 156 with Kershaw and 2 to go.
We got a real shot at a special night on FanDuel all day. A real shot..
138 from the optimal lineup for FD MLB Afternoon.
I locked in few players and hit 147 for afternoon.
I know MLB just started but counting the days to use optimal lineup for NFL.
Last year DFSR had Kirk Cousins listed as one of the best valued QBs other projections did not list Cousins as good value – he had 4 TD passes.
DFSR tool finds good value players that other projection system seems to miss.
Dodgers sending Kershaw out to pitch the 7th with an 11 run lead. My FanDuel point total thanks you Dave Roberts 🙂
Looks like Greinke is pitching BP. Getting lit up.
Wish I would have gotten in on the optimizer on the full day slate cause the night optimizer not looking so hot
late games did not go so great for me. The early slate the optimizer did well for me though
can anyone give some hints, or tricks on how to come up using this system, I know its only the second day of baseball, and its pretty much given on how to use the system, but I had terrible luck last season, and im 0-2 this season, any suggestions, where do I have greater possibility to make some $$$
I may have gotten the wrong line ladies and gents.
Because I got a few O’s in my lineup
I was extremely surprised to see the optimizer sleep on Story . He was at bottom of SS list when I checked . Been hot in the spring batting 2nd in that Colorado line . Had to take him and it paid off big time . This kid is something to watch