Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/5/16

Be honest - you came here yesterday looking for picks and were initially mad/confused that we didn't have them live. You went to email us (and many of you did) before doing a sanity check and looking at the NBA schedule, shoulders slumping in defeat. Or maybe I'm just describing what I went through when I went to write the picks last night. Either way - the NBA is blessedly back for another day, and boy is it a doozy.

For starters, there are roughly 6 teams still playing for an 8th seed - the Jazz, Rockets, Mavs, Pistons, Pacers, and Bulls. Then there are teams like the Warriors, who want to win for other reasons. Then we have teams that checked out so long ago that they're just chugging along, doing their thing - the Suns and Pelicans, for instance. But what we really have is a MESS of a slate. I'll do my best to wade through it all, and be sure to tune in later on Tuesday for the updates article and the fun banter in the comments.

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POINT GUARD

The incredible pile of cheap guys: And it really will be an incredible pile. But it all comes down to who will start, and who won't. So rather than write the same guy up (in different words) four times, I'll give you a brief run down. Tim Frazier will be a great play again if he starts. Ronnie Price looks like a solid boom or bust option. Tyler Ennis has been playing solid minutes with an uncertain PG situation in Milwaukee. And there are more possibles if other starters sit, like Cory Joseph, or Matthew Dellavedova. Frazier is likely the safest of the bunch of he starts, with Delly a close second. That said, let's do the real players now.

Damian Lillard - FD 8000 DK 8800
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 39.68 DK Proj. Pts - 42.67
I hope you kept a steady hand on Lillard, and played him against the Warriors like our lineup optimizer suggested. Lillard rained flaming basketballs for 38 points from the field, and all signs point to the Trail Blazers being interested in bumping Memphis from the 5 spot so they don't have to face OKC in the opener. The Kings, meanwhile, are a complete shammockery, and they've allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season. I'd be happy with Lillard in any format.

Reggie Jackson - FD 5900 DK 5800
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 32.18 DK Proj. Pts - 33.32
Since the Pistons are one of the few teams with something to play for, they've been trotting out Jackson more than they'd like to recently. His 35 minutes against the Bulls were his 7th most of the season, and %16 increase in minutes over his usual 30 per game is very significant this time of year. The Heat are an awful match-up, unfortunately, so there might not be transcendent upside here, but I like his floor a heck of a lot.

Also considered: The Steph Curry/Ricky Rubio combination. They both put up solid games against each other recently in a spot where they had similar things to play for (the record for the Dubs, and nothing for the Wolves). They're an interesting pairing for big tournaments, but it's tough to imagine getting away from all the cheap value here today if even half of it comes to fruition.

 

SHOOTING GUARD

Jimmy Butler - FD 8700 DK 7900
Opponent - MEM
FD Proj. Pts - 42.98 DK Proj. Pts - 44.47
If safety rules the day, there are none safer than Jimmy Butler (even at the now semi-insane prices). Even if Rose returns, it's going to be tough for him to play his full run of minutes, and with every game being a true must-win, it's tough to imagine the Bulls going down without Butler swinging madly along the way. The one problem, of course, is the price. It's high, if you're using Butler's per minute season stats to drive your evaluation. But on a day where there are essentially no big money players playing for anything besides him, he's the guy I trust most. I'll reevaluate if we find out that Rose is back, but in the meantime, I'm throwing down.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - FD 5400 DK 5100
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 26.15 DK Proj. Pts - 28.41
Rodney Hood - FD 5500 DK 4900
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 26.14 DK Proj. Pts - 28.19
I suspect I'll be recommending four Pistons in today's article, though I can't quite say for sure just yet. KCP gets his ranking for much the same reason that Jackson does - he's playing 40 minutes a game right now, and while the Heat really drive down opponent scoring, his perimeter game will be less affected than most by the presence of Whiteside down low. It's basically the same story with Hood. The Jazz really, really want to win, and unless Alec Burks returns, Hood will play big minutes today. The upside just has to be limited on the basis of opponent for both, but the minutes will be there for your 50/50 purposes.

Courtney Lee - FD 4300 DK 4000
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 22.27 DK Proj. Pts - 23.8
With Nic Batum potentially out in this one, Lee's already solid floor goes up that much more. He's been playing 37-38 minutes a game, and while he's not as involved on the offensive end as you'd like, he gets enough in the way of hustle stats (rebounds, steals) that he's averaged 5.5x points per dollar on his FanDuel price in his last 4 games. Now I suspect you'll wind up playing more true punts today (in a stars and scrubs fashion), but Lee is not a bad consolation if you really need to go cheap at SG today.

The sea of cheap is led first and foremost by Norman Powell, who is probably the play of the day at the position if he draws another start. There's risk, of course, but there's risk basically everywhere today. If you're picking poisons, Powell's risk doesn't look too bad.

And, for fun: Kobe? Kobe. My man looks to be going out with a bang, and he's still cheap.

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SMALL FORWARD

Giannis Antetokounmpo - FD 9600 DK 9300
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 44.89 DK Proj. Pts - 45.92
One of the big money guys that we can actually project with a little bit of certainty, today. Giannis has averaged 41 minutes in his last two games, and continues to rack up assists in the point forward position. He didn't overwhelm the Cavs in their last match-up, but with the Cavs essentially playing for nothing (and LeBron coming off of two ridiculous 41+ minute games) I suspect we'll see a free range Freak here.

Jordan Hamilton - FD 4600 DK 3900
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 26.26 DK Proj. Pts - 27.47
You can call me Aaron Burr by the way I've been dropping Hamilton recently. The sites (quite reasonably) have no Pelicans priced respectably, but Hamilton has been putting up nearly a point per minute on 32 minutes per game as a starter. That just makes him a phenomenal play on these prices. And did I mention he has a world-class match-up with one of the league's other worst teams? On a day with a ton of punts, finding safety at the "punt" position can be tricky. Hamilton represents all the safety you need from a cheap player in a true mismatch of price and opportunity, on DraftKings in particular.

Al-Farouq Aminu - FD 5400 DK 5100
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 26.23 DK Proj. Pts - 27.27
Like I referenced in the Lillard write-up, the Blazers are making boldfaced run at the 5 seed, and they're playing Aminu 35+ minutes when the game stays close. Thanks to the league's fastest pace and the defensive stylings of Rudy Gay, the Kings have allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards this season.

The million dollar question: What will happen with Nikola Mirotic? Taj Gibson's status is ever in doubt, and while Mirotic is a back-up, he's put up 3 monster games in his last 4 even on back-up's minutes. But that other game was an 8 point, line-up shredding disaster. I'm not sure I have the stomach for it, but I know he'll be showing up high today.

POWER FORWARD

Tobias Harris - FD 6400 DK 6100
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 31.27 DK Proj. Pts - 32.93
For such a big slate, power forward is pretty sparse today. So, I'm really feeling Tobias Harris. He gets the "this game matters boost," like a lot of my recommendations, but he also has a few other points in his favor. He's paid 5x+ points per dollar in three of his last four, but his minutes, like most of the Pistons' starters, are trending in a favorable direction. Power forward is actually the Heat's worst defensive position, and I think he's the 2nd safest Piston (after Jackson) today.

Jabari Parker - FD 6700 DK 6000
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 30.74 DK Proj. Pts - 31.63
Speaking of safe, my man Jabari has soared back into safe production in his last three games. He hasn't played fewer than 37 minutes since March 23rd, and has topped 38 fantasy points in each of his last three games. He's got a nice match-up with Kevin Love (or one of his back-ups) today, and actually gets a lot of minutes safety from the sheer fact that the Bucks have been in the same relative playoff position (which is to say, they've been out of it) for a while now. I'd be happy with him in any format.

Dante Cunningham - FD 3900 DK 3600
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 19.25 DK Proj. Pts - 19.5
Jerami Grant - FD 5100 DK 5000
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 24.25 DK Proj. Pts - 25.63
Two interesting cheap to kinda cheap guys for you today. It looks like Noel will miss this one, and Grant played 37 minutes in the Sixers' last game against the Pacers. The Pelicans are an absolute mess, which helps, because they're one of the few teams in the league that shouldn't be favored to blow the Sixers out. If Grant gets big run, he should pay this price handily. As for Cunningham, he's one of the last tall people remaining on the Pelicans, and while he is not much of an actual basketball player, he's playing high 30s minutes at a near minimum price right now. Since he stinks, he's very match-up dependent. Luckily, he has a great match-up with the Sixers today.

Also considered: Kevin Love, if he plays and either Kyrie or LeBron sits.

 

CENTER

Tyson Chandler - FD 5300 DK 4600
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 29.33 DK Proj. Pts - 29.98
I hate to brag, but, busted, I love to brag. At least on behalf of the lineup optimizer. Our projection system has been spitting out Chandler ever since it became obvious that he'd playing mid-high 30s minutes (thanks to Leuer being out - this changes if Leuer is back in all likelihood), and we've been handsomely rewarded. Chandler put up solid 30+ point performances against the Bucks and Jazz before putting up a monster 43 point spot in a terrible match-up with the Jazz. The Hawks have allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season, and Chandler should be in line for a healthy double double once again.

Rudy Gobert - FD 6000 DK 5500
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 30.76 DK Proj. Pts - 31.35
Pau Gasol - FD 8400 DK 7800
Opponent - MEM
FD Proj. Pts - 41.72 DK Proj. Pts - 42.39
The guys with something to play for. Gobert has been logging the biggest minutes of his career, and while he doesn't have a terrific match-up with the Spurs, you can believe he'll be out there wreaking havoc on the boards and on the defensive end as Utah tries to secure their playoff spot. As for Gasol, he's on back to back 41+ fantasy point performances as the Bulls try to white-knuckle their way into the playoffs. It's a great spot against the depleted Grizzlies, and if Rose is out again, you can count on the Bulls counting on the Spaniard in this one. I like either of these guys for cash game purposes.

Also considered: Alexis Ajinca! He's as safe as a girl you'd pick up in a bowling alley bar, but the upside on a points per dollar basis is undeniable in a great match-up with the Sixers.

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