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Daily Fantasy Baseball News and Updates for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/5/16
Welcome to the daily MLB updates and news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!
Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock today.
By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the batting lineup changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!
What We Know
Opening Day, Take Two
Postponements of yesterday's Astros/Yankees and Red Sox/Indians games means there's a healthy slate of ace-caliber pitchers in Tuesday's day games.
Houston will throw reigning Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel against the Yankees, who struggled against lefties last year, while David Price and Corey Kluber will square off in Cleveland. Those arms alone are sufficient to suppress offense, but throw in game-time temps in the 30s and runs could be even tougher to come by.
If you're playing the three-game early slate, expect to see the Mets hitters highly owned.
Weather Watch
Better news: it looks like Mother Nature will cooperate tonight. As of Tuesday morning none of the night games appear to be in danger of delays or postponements, but do keep an eye on the wind patterns. Forecasts are calling for a stiff breeze blowing in at Global Life Park in Arlington, which might make Nelson Cruz slightly less appetizing in a tasty matchup against mediocre lefty Martin Perez.
Still waiting on Sonny
Oakland ace Sonny Gray was scratched from Monday night's start due to pretty gnarly sounding case of food poisoning. His start hasn't yet been rescheduled yet, but it reportedly won't be tonight, as Chris Bassitt is scheduled to take the hill against the White Sox.
Tournament Stacks
Detroit Tigers
The Detroit lineup is built to exploit soft matchups against lefties and Miami seems ready to oblige in Tuesday's season opener for both teams. Marlins starter Wei-Yin Chen was solid last season, posting a career-best strikeout rate and ERA. Even so, he only strikes out about seven per nine and his xFIP last year was still just north of 4.00, so this isn't a dude we have to dodge. Meanwhile, only the Blue Jays hit left-handed pitching better than the Tigers last year, and Detroit has since added Justin Upton, who struggled against southpaws last season, but has crushed them throughout the rest of his career. Stack at will here, just know that large swaths of your competitors will probably be doing the same.
Chicago Cubs
Keep an eye out for the lineup in this one. Our system really likes Dexter Fowler, Ben Zobrist and Kris Bryant against the left-handed Andrew Heaney, and with noted tinkerer Joe Maddon filling out the card, there's no telling where they might be slotted on any given night. Jorge Soler, who started at DH and hit seventh in the opener, could be another interesting tournament play depending on where he's at in the lineup.
San Francisco Giants
Do you go back to the well again? The Giants were a top stack on Monday, led by back-to-back-to-back dingers from Denard Span, Joe Panik and Buster Posey, and all the pieces are in place for a repeat performance. Milwaukee is a great place to hit, and Jimmy Nelson is a great guy to hit against--at least for lefties, who posted a .376 wOBA against him last year.
Sneaky Pitcher
Jonathan Niese
Look, if you want to say he's only sneaky because everybody else will be avoiding him, that's probably fair. Niese wasn't great last year in terms of performance or peripherals, but his HR/FB rate should be coming back down, and the betting markets are giving the Pirates a decent chance to win this game. He's not necessarily the guy I want to build my core lineups around, but as a secondary pitcher on DraftKings or flyer to pair with some pricey hitters, you could do worse.
The "Every Lineup" Guys
Ian Kinsler
This is the guy our system really wants you to use to anchor all those Tigers stacks. Kinsler's home run and steal potential isn't what it once was, but he's still got enough pop and speed to give him a nice ceiling. More importantly, he'll be at the top of the order and is a good bet to be on base in front of Upton, Miggy and J.D. Martinez. He's always been a solid contact hitter, and last year he struck out in just six percent of at bats against left-handed pitching.
David Peralta
In one of the league's best hitter's parks and either in front of or behind Paul Goldschmidt, Peralta is bound to be a popular pick tonight. After hitting fourth (and delivering three hits) against a lefty in the opener, Peralta could shift up to the No. 2 hole against the right-handed Chad Bettis. The 28-year-old late bloomer was especially nasty against righties last year. Though admittedly buoyed by a ridiculous .376 BABIP, Peralta put up a .228 ISO and .397 wOBA in the split. If new age stats are you're thing, just know this: that's really, really good.
Note: The projection system loves Victor Martinez today, but he won't be starting today in the NL park, so I removed him from the optimal lineups.
One other note: There are big differences between DraftKings and FanDuel pricing so the optimal lineups are looking quite different.
These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.
Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!
image sources
- J.D. Martinez, Chris Gimenez: (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)
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early optimizer shows garner on 2nd printout. he isnt in the starting lineup i dont think.
Does the optimizer not like hitters going against the optimal SP (Kluber)? It’s choosing Springer over Mookie when there’s enough money for him and he has a higher projection.
Austin,
There is a default in place that won’t rec hitters against pitchers in the same lineup so as not to cannibalize . That’s why you saw that happen with Betts. You can turn it off in the “Hitters vs. Pitchers” filter if you want.
I’m seeing Victor all over the place but is he going to play since they’re in a NL park?
Almost definitely not. But I’m just waiting on lineup release.
Ok I see it now. Good thing I still went with Mookie
Yes, another reason to play Betts was the guaranteed homer he was supposed to hit today.
🙂
with Detroit being a good stack. Would Cabrera be a solid play? With new found great hitters surrounding him? with the narrative in Miami to add to that piece!
How do you generate a stack ? Just pick one team then run it?
Doug and James:
What just happened to the Tigers stack in the optimal? lol
they all jumped under 1x value and fell off the optimal in seconds! lol ( justin upton, kinsler, cabrera etc) did i miss something?
Nevermind… They are all back now? That was weird… Must have clicked it right when more information was getting pushed in…
Thanks
That sf mill weather looking real bad eh
Lol never mind it’s in mill in a domenhahah
It’s early days for sure but with the new FanDuel points system seems like you just can’t afford to miss on pitching. You take Kluber or Tanaka in the afternoon only games and you start off like 35fp behind lineups with Price and probably similar points from Syndergaard as well. Just hard to make up that ground. Just seems like 50fp from a starting ace is going to be the norm.
Not a fan of Fanduels new scoring, not only getting rid of the decimal point scoring, but everything is a multiple of three so it seems so much easier to tie positions even with different lineups. Gonna give a go for a few weeks but may have to focus more on DK for baseball.
That said, the optimal lineup yesterday was just enough to get me through to the final round of the cross sport survivor. Looking forward to a killer NBA lineup tomorrow to bring it all home. Keep up the great work DFSRs
I’m about to give up on fd baseball. But this has caused an odd effect. The main 2$ gpp 250k gtd tourney just started HALF full. Wow.
Whoops not half. Thanks iPhone. 66 instead of 76k. Still though
Detroit Miami game delayed already lol. Was weather a factor ?
There’s been a LOT of overlay in baseball. Makes you think there was a LOT of people playing FanDuel/Draftkings in the state of New York. Even on FanDuel noticed the mlb slam was only like 60% full just before lock so took a flier.
Thought was a dome ha
Kinsler hr boom
JD just missed hitting two today.
Man, bases jacked and no outs and Belt hits a lazy infield fly ball. Could have been HUGE..
What stack for tonight ?