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Daily Fantasy Baseball News and Updates for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/6/16
Welcome to the daily MLB updates and news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!
Last night's picks can be found here (early), and here (late), so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock today.
By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the batting lineup changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!
What We Know
We've got a multitude of slates today—four at both DraftKings and FanDuel—with a healthy six-gamer starting at 1:10 p.m. Eastern.
For those early games, we should have a handle on what to expect from the weather, as well as the starting lineups, at lock. The one exception is the Boston/Cleveland game, with first pitch scheduled for 6:10 p.m. This might be one to avoid, as there's a 40 percent chance of rain at game time and it only goes up for the rest of the night. The rest of the early slate should be worry-free, as four of the six games will be played indoors.
No such luck tonight, when weather could wreak havoc on nearly half the games. Forecasts to keep an especially close eye on: Cardinals at Pirates, Nationals at Braves, and Phillies at Reds. The situation in Cincinnati looks especially dire, so be sure to check the weather this evening before rolling out all those Brandon Finnegan tournament lineups.
Tournament Stacks
There's a lot to be tempted by on the early slate today. Let's start in Texas, where clear weather, an outward bound breeze, and the unyielding hospitality of Colby Lewis make the Mariners our top choice.
Seattle Mariners
Lewis is a fly-ball pitcher, who doesn't strike people out, twirling in one of the league's most hitter-friendly venues. As a bonus, the Mariners have gobs of moderately priced left-handed sticks. This one doesn't require an algorithm, but if it makes you feel better we've got one and it can confirm everything I just wrote. Nearly every bat in the Seattle lineup is in play today.
Toronto Blue Jays
Even in a pitcher's haven like Tropicana Field and going against a guy with decent strikeout upside, the Blue Jays can't be ignored when facing a southpaw. No team did more damage against lefties last year, and that was with just a partial season of a marginally effective Troy Tulowitzki. While he struggled somewhat last season, Tulo wallops left-handed pitching to the tune of a .959 OPS and a .408 wOBA for his career. Meanwhile, Rays starter Matt Moore has yet to regain his 2013 form and was brutalized last season after returning from Tommy John surgery. Until he shows he can miss bats again, he's a target in matchups like this one.
Baltimore Orioles
The evening matchups aren't quite as tantalizing, but if you want to build some stacks around Chris Davis, our projection system would have no problem with that. Camden Yards is a great place for left-handed power hitters, and a low-K guy like Twins starter Kyle Gibson can be picked on. It's not the gimme that the preceding stacks present, as Gibson has decent stuff and gets ground balls at a solid clip, but you could do worse than fielding tournament lineups featuring Davis, Adam Jones and Manny Machado tonight.
Sneaky Pitcher
Patrick Corbin
We wrote him up last night as one of our picks on the early slate, but it's worth revisiting here. The projection system is high on Corbin, even in a hitter's park, after he posted elevated K rates with better command after returning from Tommy John surgery last season. He's not a safe choice, but in tournaments, he could be a nice way to differentiate lineups and free up salary.
The "Every Lineup" Guys
Robinson Cano
The system loves Cano today and if you believe hot streaks have predictive value, you should love him even more. Aside from the factors detailed above that should benefit all Mariners hitters, Cano has been on a tear this Spring, and the power surge has carried into the regular season with a pair of home runs already.
Bryce Harper
The price is the only deterrent here. Most of the top half of the Nationals' lineup look like solid cash game plays tonight, but the reigning NL MVP is the play of the day if you can fit him in.
One other note: There are big differences between DraftKings and FanDuel pricing so the optimal lineups are looking quite different.
These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.
Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!
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Martin is hitting leadoff over aoki.
DeShields not starting
thoughts on correa over harper tonight?
Does a Seattle stack look good this afternoon ?
All my Souza is paired with Corbin. No pressure, Patrick.
Story again… that guy is murdering the ball
As im here… looking to see what Im doing for the Main Slate…. Corbin just got bombed off of for a 2 run bomb in the 1st inning…. good start Corbin… Good start… crappppp
But that’s the “beauty” of the new FanDuel scoring. Dude gives a HR and two runs and ends the inning with 3fp because of ks. Strikeouts offset everything in the new scoring.
yes i agree!! need az to get him this W!!
Isn’t the new pitching scoring the same as the old, just multiplied 3x?
The same inning last year would’ve netted 1 point: 2 Ks = 2 pts + 1 IP = 1 point (minus 2 runs/points) = 1 point.
It seems dramatically different, but the only thing that really changed was dropping the negative .25 for hitters when they get out.
Same concept but the 3x is rewarding top pitchers and guys who strike out a lot of batters. That wasn’t the case last year. Guy gives up a homerun and then strikes out a guy and he’s at 0fp last year. This year he’s at 2fp. We’ve already seen in all of the slates nearly impossible to win if you don’t have the right pitcher. Again that wasn’t the case last year. The difference between Kershaw getting 18fp and some getting 12fp was a homerun by one of your batters. Now were seeing this wide gap. Like yesterday Shields got 54fp and Kluber got 19fp. You were 35fp behind and that just gets really hard to make up unless you nail every batter.
Ok, let’s break it down.
last year
Strike a guy out = 1 pt for K, .33 pt for out.
Give up a HR = -1 point
Total: .33 points
this year
Strike a guy out = 3 pt for K, 1 pt for out
Give up a HR = -3 points
Total: 1 point.
Again, all pitching scoring is exactly the same only multiplied by three. And all hitting scoring is exactly the same only multiplied by three.
The only thing that changed is no more negative hitting points for outs.
That 35-point disparity you referenced is the same as an 11.67-point disparity last year. Not insurmountable.
I’m not the biggest fan of the new scoring, but mostly because removing fractional scoring increases the probability of ties and therefore split pots.
Getting the right pitcher has always been a must to winning consistently in DFS, and that hasn’t changed.
The problem with the new scoring system is that it results in too many ties. For example, $2 squeeze had ~1470-way cash line tie 150pts, Approx 20% of the field min cashed for $1.83. So you actually lost money. This usually pays $5. I will be moving to Draftkings for MLB.
Cano another boom boom thank u.
Ps grandal is on dl and showing up on late night
Solid 9 inning by the opt line up in TX.
Haven’t done much in the way of FD FBB, but do like that IP, and SO can help overcome one bad inning where a few runs are allowed.
Am I missing something or is Michael Taylor missing in the optimizer?
Mehhhh that Cleveland game gonna rain and not looking good anymore
I think they probably took out negative points for outs in order to give make DFS opposers one less round in the Random factors gun
I am doing horrid this season already, is the optimizer helping you guys?