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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/7/16
It's another split slate on the docket for Thursday, which is great news, unless you're not really into 14 hours of continuous baseball. In that case, may we direct you to Pintrest?
If you're still with us, congratulations on your red blood and good sense.
So yeah, nobody's complaining about nine games on a Thursday—at least not until they get a good look at the pitching options available today. Just warning y'all. It ain't pretty. Actually, maybe Pintrest isn't looking so bad.
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A quick heads up - we post an updates article every day in the early afternoon, EST, to catch everyone up on how things are changing as a result of whatever news has come through. We also have great talks in the comments of that article. Hope to see you there!
We've also launched a Stats and Research Page, which includes a lot of the individual statistics that we use to make our projections. It's free! Enjoy.
PITCHER
Early slate
Alex Wood FD 7800 DK 6600
Opponent - SF (Peavy) Park - @SF
FD - 32.35 DK - 15.76
I know, right? Woof. Here's the deal. Pitching sucks today. I tried to warn you earlier. Lots of people are gonna be grabbing Danny Salazar and playing him in tourneys and cash games, which makes sense on the surface. He's the only name that doesn't induce a gag reflex on first blush. He's young, he throws hard, he strikes guys out at a decent rate. That's fine, but we're not so sure about him at the price. Actually, our system prefers Wood regardless of price.
There are two narratives on Wood, and how you feel about him depends on which you buy into most. Option A) He was never a touted prospect and his early success in Atlanta was the product of a gimmicky, ball-hiding delivery. Hitters solved that and now he's washed up at 25 years old. Option B) Relax. It was just a bad year.
There's probably some merit to both, but here's what's not debatable: San Francisco is wonderful place to pitch. No park in the majors suppressed offense more in 2015.
Tanner Roark FD 6700 DK 7000
Opponent - MIA (Conley) Park - @WSH
FD - 27.74 DK - 13.23
Yeah, we're not super excited about him either, but he is really, really cheap, and the Nationals are the biggest favorites on the early slate. Especially on FanDuel (12 points for a win!), that's a huge deal. Roark floated back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation last year and was mediocre at best. Even at his best, he's not going to strike a lot of guys out; what we're hoping for here is about six innings in which he recaptures his 2014 form, limiting hard contact and letting his offense do the heavy lifting.
Late slate
Ubaldo Jimenez FD 7900 DK 7500
Opponent - MIN (Hughes) Park - @BAL
FD - 27.57 DK - 13.84
I guess. Truthfully there aren't any good options among the three late games, so if you're playing on the short slate, throwing a cheap dart might be the way to play it. But if you insist on trying to find an edge through analysis, our projection system grudgingly recommends Jimenez. But I could tell a little part of it died in the process.
CATCHER
Early slate
Jason Castro FD 2300 DK 3200
Opponent - NYY (Eovaldi) Park - @NYY
FD - 8.48 DK - 6.64
Castro has been hitting in the No. 9 hole, which hurts his value, but the price is right here for the left-handed hitting backstop. He's got a fair amount of pop and the short porch in right at Yankee Stadium makes him a decent bet for a home run at near-punt prices.
Wilson Ramos FD 2300 DK 3500
Opponent - MIA (Conley) Park - @WSH
FD - 8.47 DK - 6.84
Going cheap at catcher looks like the move on the early slate. Ramos also costs next to nothing and gets a nice matchup against a bottom-of-the rotation lefty in Adam Conley. Ramos is coming off a disappointing season, but he's been a pretty reliable run producer against southpaws over the course of his career.
Late slate
Miguel Montero FD 2700 DK 3400
Opponent - ARI (De La Rosa) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.89 DK - 8.58
Rubby de la Rosa has a live arm and decent stuff, but he gets absolutely hammered by left-handed hitters (.508 slugging, .377 wOBA in his career). That's bad news against the Cubs, who will likely stack the lineup with lefties, putting Montero (career .793 OPS vs. RHP) in nice position to push some runs across.
FIRST BASE
Early slate
Ryan Zimmerman FD 2700 DK 4500
Opponent - MIA (Conley) Park - @WSH
FD - 10.59 DK - 8.4
The glory days are a fading memory for oft-injured 31-year-old, but he's still a reliable lefty killer. Even as his numbers dipped across the board in 2015, Zimmerman put a Ruthian .681 slugging percentage and .439 wOBA against left-handed pitching last year. Some of that is coming from an unsustainable .348 BABIP, but at these prices, a little regression is not a problem.
Byung-ho Park FD 2600 DK 4300
Opponent - BAL (Jimenez) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.05 DK - 8.67
Joe Mauer FD 2500 DK 4000
Opponent - BAL (Jimenez) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.66 DK - 8.44
The Twins' first basemen are coming at similar (low) prices and our system values them nearly equally. But of course they're not identical players and they bring different benefits to your DFS roster. At least we think. Park is still something of an unknown after coming over from South Korea, but projection systems across the industry peg him has a heavy hitter with a high K rate. In other words, the kind of guy you plug into your tournament lineups in a hitter's park against a guy who gives up his up his share of homers. Mauer's more a cash gamer, valued for his low K rate, solid OBP and desirable spot in the batting order.
Strongly consider Jose Abreu
Late slate
Anthony Rizzo FD 4300 DK 5200
Opponent - ARI (De La Rosa) Park - @ARI
FD - 16.1 DK - 12.54
Remember what we said about Montero? It all goes 3x for Rizzo, perhaps the best all-around hitter in one of the league's most-stacked lineups. He's got MVP-caliber upside and last year's .255 ISO against RHP makes him a highly desirable play at Chase Field.
SECOND BASE
Early slate
Jason Kipnis FD 2900 DK 4800
Opponent - BOS (Kelly) Park - @CLE
FD - 11.46 DK - 9.11
Despite impressive velocity, Joe Adams has never been anything more than a supremely average dude when it comes to missing bats...and just about everything else baseball related. Kipnis brings a nice floor/ceiling combo into the matchup, with respectable power and speed for the position and excellent on-base skills.
Late slate
Ben Zobrist FD 2700 DK 4300
Opponent - ARI (De La Rosa) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.44 DK - 9.04
Noticing a trend here? The Cubs are imminently stackable against de la Rosa in this venue and Zobrist should be right in the middle of the action. He's always been a little stronger against lefties, but don't be deterred. His low K rate and patient approach make him a near must-play in cash games at this price.
SHORTSTOP
Early slate
Jose Ramirez FD 2500 DK 3600
Opponent - BOS (Kelly) Park - @CLE
FD - 10.9 DK - 8.8
Keep an eye on the lineup here. Ramirez is playing a super utility role for the Indians early on this season and could end up at any number of positions and slots in the batting order. On Wednesday he got the start in left field and hit second, and if he's back there again today, we like him at his price point. It's tough to find reliable value day in and day out at shortstop, and getting a solid low-K guy with speed and a nice spot in the lineup is often all you can hope for.
Francisco Lindor FD 3300 DK 4300
Opponent - BOS (Kelly) Park - @CLE
FD - 10.67 DK - 8.61
If you don't mind spending a little more, consider the guy who is keeping Ramirez in the utility role. Lindor was expected to be a defensive specialist when he was called up last season, but proceeded to torch MLB pitching for a .313/.353/.482 slash line in 99 games. He's expected to regress some this season, but there's a lot to like in the youngster's offensive game; even if the power backslides closer to his minor league numbers, he's got sufficient speed to boost his upside.
Late slate
Consider not even playing this slate because it's such a disaster. There's barely a rosterable shortstop going on the three game slate but suppose you can consider Andrelton Simmons or Addison Russell
THIRD BASE
Early slate
Maikel Franco FD 3100 DK 0
Opponent - CIN (Stephenson) Park - @CIN
FD - 12.65 DK - 10.06
The projection system is all in on Franco, another midseason 2015 call-up that impressed upon arrival. In 80 games with the Phillies, he flashed a blend of power and contact ability that makes him hard for an algorithm to resist, slugging close to .497 with a .217 ISO while striking out in less than 16 percent of his at bats. He's still coming at a decent price, and though Robert Stephenson has big-time upside, there's been little indication at this point that he's ready pitch to his potential on the Major League stage. Mix in his struggles with command and Great American Ballpark's homer-happy confines, and Franco is a strong play in all formats today.
Late slate
Manny Machado FD 4200 DK 4900
Opponent - MIN (Hughes) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.58 DK - 10.78
Originally we had Trevor Plouffe here, but with the lack of pitching on the evening slate and the soft pricing there, I think you'll be able to spend up more on some bats for sure. Machado is going in a great hitter's park against a guy in Hughes who allows a massive amount of flyballs. That's a hitter's dream and Machado was significantly better against righties last year in a reverse split.
OUTFIELD
Early slate
Michael Taylor FD 2200 DK 3600
Opponent - MIA (Conley) Park - @WSH
FD - 10.41 DK - 8.36
It's established by now that we're picking on Adam Conley, and Taylor offers an excellent cost-saving option if he's at the top of the lineup again. He hit leadoff Wednesday with Ben Revere nursing a rib injury, and with a southpaw on the mound today, it would make sense for Taylor to get the call again. If he does, it'll be tough to pass up on this bargain.
Colby Rasmus FD 3000 DK 3400
Opponent - NYY (Eovaldi) Park - @NYY
FD - 11.28 DK - 8.8
Should be staring down that short porch in right field today from the middle of the order. Nathan Eovaldi does induce a lot of ground balls, but I think you can take a look at some of the lefty Astros today and Rasmus is coming cheap enough considering his position in the lineup and those bats around him.
Very strongly consider Bryce Harper because you'll be able to afford him without having to spend on pitching.
Late slate
Kyle Schwarber FD 3400 DK 4500
Opponent - ARI (De La Rosa) Park - @ARI
FD - 15.28 DK - 11.96
Jason Heyward FD 3600 DK 4400
Opponent - ARI (De La Rosa) Park - @ARI
FD - 15.01 DK - 11.92
Dexter Fowler FD 3100 DK 4500
Opponent - ARI (De La Rosa) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.65 DK - 10
The overarching question of the late slate—which 4-5 Cubs do I roster?—reaches a crisis point now. Forced to choose, we like Schwarber the most. That power upside and de la Rosa's lefty problems are just too much to pass up. But really, our system doesn't think you can go wrong here. Fowler and Heyward also make fine options in any format given the way ball flies out of Arizona.
Strongly consider: Miguel Sano.
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Thoughts on
Hughes
Lackey
Chorinos
Ortiz
Holt
Bryant
J. Ramirez
Davis
Fowler
Trout? Taking a chance on pitching for offense?
Big thanks to the optimizer again! Turned $3 on DK into a top 15 finish ($70)… keep up the great work
Great. Yesterday early slate was beautiful. Cash games and GPPs both. Late hit some H2H but bats mostly dead.
kinda blows i wanna sign up put it doesn’t except pre paid debit cards /=
That’s awesome Daniel. Unfortunately I don’t have that luck with the optimizer. Always seem to be at the cash line but no higher. Any tricks or tips to using the optimizer.
Which slate didn’t hit the cash line?
Early slate hit across the board with optimals, as did the all-day tourney (Corbin, Fernandez, McCann, Crash Davis, Cano, Seager, Didi, Bryce, Leonys Martin, and Seth Smith, which I think it was one of the top lineups around noon).
I am not having any luck with the optimizer and help Doug would be nice thanks
Hey Bobby would love to help. Need some more specifics though. Which slates have you played? What types of games?
I played 50 50 and tournament only won on early line up thanks for the help looking to play today
Interesting. The top lineup the system threw out early was:
Corbin Posey, Goldie, Cano, Seager, Segura, Peralta, Martin and Cruz.
I had that cashing everywhere. One weird thing that happened on the early slate was the GPP cash line was significantly lower than the big FD 50/50 cash line.
DraftKings was a full cash across the board.
I played optimizer on all slates with no adjustment turned $12 to $20 but looking for more , any suggestions
That’s a fantastic ROI. But if looking to hit big in a GPP you need to run multiple lineups with stacked variations.
The optimizer didn’t do me any good last night either. In baseball or basketball. Am I missing something ?
Last night was rough. MLB Maeda was strong but bats went dead.
I turned 2 into 15 on FD. Too bad I started R. Martin at catcher. Zero points. I think the key is to have the optimizer do more than one line up and you pick the best one for you.
Matt,
For baseball, because there is so much variance, I will tend to run multiple cash game lineups. Top 4 lineups in system say. I don’t do this for NBA because I think it’s generally, EV-. But for MLB I will diversify my cash, h2h and gpp lineups much much more.
Hey guys, yesterday was my first day using the optimizer and I ran it 15 minutes before lock and used that lineup. It didn’t do very well and I don’t expect it to do amazing every night but I just wanted to make sure I used it the right way. The lineup that it gave me is below:
Maeda, Phegley, Davis, Murphy, Carpenter, Seager, Harper, Davis, and Sano
Nope that’s correct. I ran that lineup as well. Bats were quiet. Some folks here were referring to the early slate of games that crushed.
Looks like a lot of rain forecasted for today’s games. Any concerns there/any games we should especially stay away from?
Won’t be doing fanduel for awhile! Got killed! Onto draftkings free contests!
Stephenson showing up as the pitcher in all the optimals for late slate but isn’t even available on FD
He’s only available in all day slate. Game starts at 12:35. Just x him out if you’re trying to build late slate.
Holy crap! Tons of rain today! I’m in DC area and its been raining hard all morning. I think MIA/WAS & MIN/BAL have a great chance of rain out. WU ️MLB shows chance of rain in almost every game too.
The optimizer is simply a tool to HELP you get in the money. It should be used to help eliminate blind guesses with educated guesses. The players still need to perform and lady luck needs to be around as well.
you guys are great! thank you for all your help. I do have a question: where can I find the Chrome extension for draftkings? I’m sure having that will make things much easier to insert a lineup.
I guess skip baseball today due to all the rain
Plouffe is facing Jimenez not Nick Martinez
Lots of rain in the forecast for midday games, any clue on which one’s will be canceled for sure?
Optimizer crushed the early slate. Cashed 7/9 gpp lineups. Any reason peavy is getting optimizer love now?
Why discuss Plouffe against lefties? Jimenez is righty…
Yup. That was an error. The system had it correct, but the write up was off. I’ve actually taken him out anyway and replaced with Machado. After looking at how lineups are stacking up on that brutal late slate, I think Manny’s more of the play any way.
Re: the Phillies – Cincy. We are aware that game is showing up in the late group of games. It’s a scripting error based on how we return times of games. Basically it’s showing 12 o’clock as being at night instead of afternoon (lousy non-military time society!). We are working on correcting it.
Hey Doug. You said in MLB you run the top 4 lineups in cash games. Does that mean you play those in a multi entry game?
I have been doing that but in 4 different single entry double ups. Maybe I am doing this wrong. Thanks keep up the good work.
Yeah, tough call whether to stick to some smaller league play or only 50/50’s today with all the rain. Only play guys in the games that’ll for sure happen? Man, maybe skipping baseball is for the best today.
Personally, I’m by and large skipping it. I ran just a couple of bucks worth of stuff with the Hou/NYY and Bos/ CLE game removed. Risking it on Washington
Why isn’t Adam Eaton available in player pool?
Joseph. There now, Refresh page.
@Doug, that’s more/less what I’m gonna do. I’m pretty much just doing the two West Coast games with heavy stacks. Not putting my normal level of bets out though, just enough to keep me interested while the work clock ticks down to 5:00.
Schwarber is coming up as the catcher in the DK optimal lineups, but he is not listed as a catcher on that site. Can’t use the exact lineup given because of this.
Sorry, my mistake regarding Schwarber. It’s all good.