Daily Fantasy Nascar Picks
Duck Commander 500

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Duck Commander 500

Martinsville Speedway - Martinsville, Virginia
Track - .526 Mile Short Track
12° Banking in the Corners

Kyle Busch got the monkey off his back at Martinsville in a big way this past weekend. He picked up his first career Camping World Truck series win at the paper clip on Saturday afternoon leading 123 of 255 laps in the race. On Sunday he dominated again, leading 352 laps on his way to his first Sprint Cup series win at Martinsville. Kyle wasn't a main pick last week but an honorable mention, however I failed to have enough exposure limiting my success last week. Shame on me!

Looking at a few of my other picks, early favorite Jimmie Johnson didn't lead a lap but closed with another Top 10 here at Martinsville. Denny Hamlin , another favorite to win, wheel hopped into the wall around half way through the race and ended up in 39th.  This one really hurt as I had about 60% exposure to the #11 team. A swap of Kyle for Hamlin would have been huge as my value plays in Brian Vickers and AJ Allmendinger paid off in a big way. Allmendinger finished 2nd behind Kyle and Vickers came in 7th. Overall the picks looked good and just missed on a big cash. All in all a positive week. Let's carry it over into Texas.

This week the drivers get back to a mile and a half track and the new rules package when they head to Fort Worth, Texas for the Duck Commander 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. It is one of the older intermediate track and fastest on the circuit. The drivers love racing here as it has multiple lanes and presents a ton of passing opportunities which should only increase with the new rules package. It should be a great race for fantasy.

I will again be selling a cheatsheet every week of the NASCAR season. It will include drivers, salaries for DraftKings and FantasyFeud, post qualifying Vegas Odds, current form(last 5 races), track history(last 5 races), and I update the cheatsheet throughout the weekend following practice and qualifying. With the purchase of the cheatsheet you also get a few sample lineups. These lineups will almost always change following qualifying and practice so be sure to check lineup page before lineups lock on Sunday.

**Update to Cheatsheet**

I have added weighted rankings for Track History, Current Form, Season Loop Data and Practice/Qualifying. This will help better identify the best values each week and can be full customized by the user. Just download the View Only version from the lineups page and create copy which will then allow you to change any weights or sort any column you wish. If you have any questions about the cheatsheet throw me an email(jagerbombs99@gmail.com) or hit me up on Twitter(@jager_bombs9).

Let's dig in and look at some targets for this week. Be sure to check back following Final Practice on Saturday as I will have a recap of the weekend leading up to the race and go through some values that pop up from qualifying/practice.

 

Upper Tier Targets ($9,000+)

 

Jimmie Johnson
DraftKings - $10,400
Fantasy Feud - $265,000
Practice #1 - 6th
Qualified - 11th
Practice #2 -
Final Practice - 

It's early in the season but the #48 has already picked up two wins and don't look like they will lay back anytime soon. Jimmie comes back to a track(can be said for almost any track at this point in his HOF career) where he has enjoyed a lot of success. He has six career wins here including three straight and five of the last seven races in Texas. He is safe in any format and will be my highest owned driver this week.

 

 

Kyle Busch
DraftKings - $10,100
Fantasy Feud - $245,000
Practice #1 - 28th
Qualified - 15th
Practice #2 -
Final Practice - 

The week off after Fontana looked to be huge for Kyle as he came into Martinsville with no career wins in either the Camping World Truck series or Sprint Cup series and took care of both last weekend. He dominated both races and almost certainly locked himself into the Chase for the Sprint Cup playoffs. He has now finished five of the first six races in 2016 inside the Top 5 and looks to build off his Championship season in 2015. He has raced here eight times in the last five years and has a win, five Top 5's and a 6.9 average finish(second only to Jimmie). Look for another strong performance out of the #18 camp.

 

 

Carl Edwards 
DraftKings - $9,500
Fantasy Feud - $195,000
Practice #1 - 21st
Qualified - 1st
Practice #2 -
Final Practice - 

He is my favorite value play in the top tier and possibly overall this week. He is 8th in DraftKings salary and 4th in my overall weighted rankings. In his last 10 races in Texas he has four Top 5's, seven Top 10's and 10.7 average finish. He has started the 2016 with five Top 10's in six races and has commented that he really likes the new rules package(what doesn't Carl like?). At his mid $9K price tag, he is safe cash game play with upside for GPP's if they show speed leading up to the race Saturday night.

 

Also Consider - Brad Keselowski

Middle Tier Targets ($6,500-$9,000)

 

Martin Truex Jr. 
DraftKings - $8,700
Fantasy Feud - $175,000
Practice #1 - 1st
Qualified - 3rd
Practice #2 -
Final Practice -  

He finished 8th and 9th here last year and now has five Top 10 finishes in Texas over the past five years with a 13.2 average finish. He isn't having the start he did last year where he came into this race with six straight Top 10's but it could be much worse. Outside of the 32nd place finish at Fontana he has finished every race inside the Top 20. As I write this first practice is wrapping up and the #78 is on top of the leaderboard so if they can keep it up through final practice on Friday he will be a great play on Saturday night. If he qualifies near the front he should probably only be used GPP's. Stay tuned.

 

Austin Dillon
DraftKings - $7,800
Fantasy Feud - $150,000
Practice #1 - 4th
Qualified - 10th
Practice #2 -
Final Practice - 

It has been a terrific start to the 2016 season for the #3 Chevrolet of Austin Dillon. Outside of his 24th place finish at Auto Club Speedway he has finished inside the Top 11 in the other five races with Top 5's at Martinsville and Atlanta. While he has zero Top 10's here at Texas in six races, he should carry that early season momentum over into this week and capture his best career finish here. I am predicting a Top 15 which would easily pay off his salary.

 

Also Consider - Jamie McMurray

 

 

Low End Targets ($6,500 and Below)

 

Brian Vickers
DraftKings - $6,400
Fantasy Feud - $100,000
Practice #1 - 5th
Qualified - 13th
Practice #2 -
Final Practice - 

DraftKings has finally brought the price of the #14 car up into the $6K range after being min price for the first six races. I feel there is still some value there as he is working with Top 20 equipment and has experience here at Texas Motor Speedway. He has raced here five times in the past five years and has picked up a Top 5, two Top 10's and a 15.2 average finish. He is starting to look comfortable behind the wheel and driving with confidence coming off a Top 10 in Martinsville and a 13th at Auto Club Speedway. Qualifying and practice will determine his usage for me in cash or GPP.

Also Consider - Ty Dillon

 

 

Post Practice & Qualifying Update

Qualifying Top 10

1. #19 Carl Edwards
2. #22 Joey Logano
3. #78 Martin Truex Jr.
4. #24 Chase Elliott
5. #17 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
6. #11 Denny Hamlin
7. #21 Ryan Blaney
8. #2 Brad Keselowski
9. #20 Matt Kenseth
10. #3 Austin Dillon

 

 

 

 

 

That's a wrap from #DC500 practice: https://t.co/JWc7skCCaH pic.twitter.com/tIu5b3IrXc

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) April 8, 2016

If you have any questions on lineups or drivers prior to lineup lock scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.

 

Good Luck everyone!

 

 

Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the Duck Commander 500? Chris is selling lineups only $5. He covers DraftKings and FantasyFeud Cash Games & Tournaments. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.