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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/8/16
Another split slate on Friday with four early games and 10 games starting at 7:00 PM et. Both sites offer early only, All Day and Main Slate games and if you really like to mix it up DraftKings offers an insane eight different slates to feed your DFS addition. I just love the day in age we live in!
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PITCHER
Early Slate
Jacob deGrom FD 11000 DK 12300
Opponent - PHI (Eickhoff) Park - @NYM
FD - 40.48 DK - 22.32
He is the top pitcher on the early slate. If he plays. Pay close attention to this one leading up to game time as he and his wife are expecting a child any time now and reports are out that he will bolt if she goes into labour. I mean who wouldn't right? If he does play he gets a terrific matchup at home vs. the Phillies who were swept in their opening series by the Reds and outscored 19-10. He is more than capable of picking up double digit wins and has the best chance at a win Friday. In the early slate at least.
Evening Slate
Taijuan Walker FD 7600 DK 9300
Opponent - OAK (Surkamp) Park - @SEA
FD - 31.24 DK - 20.52
With teams getting towards the back end of the rotations their aren't a lot of great options at the top of the salary. Walker has a favorable matchup tonight as a -185 home favorite to the visiting Athletics. Oakland has only scored 10 runs in its first four games and has struck out 34 times(8.5 per game). Walker finished last year with close to a 8.5 K/9 rate and should only see that go up as he has recently replaced an ineffective cutter with a slider.
Jaime Garcia FD 8900 DK 9400
Opponent - ATL (Wisler) Park - @ATL
FD - 36.13 DK - 24.04
Both teams come into this game without a win on the season and will be hungry after an off day. So who is going to break through with their first win? My money is on the Cardinals tonight. The go on the road to start a weekend series with the Braves and are -160 favorites as Garcia will battle Matt Wisler. The Braves had the second worst wOBA vs. Lefties last and struck out over 20% of the time. While Garcia has an average strikeout ability(6.7 K/9 in 2015) his ground ball percentage gets him a ton of outs and double plays. He have a have a great shot to bring the Cards their first win in 2016.
CATCHER
Early Slate
Derek Norris FD 3000 DK 4000
Opponent - COL (Lyles) Park - @COL
FD - 9.1 DK - 7.23
Norris is in a great spot to breakout and get his first hit(s) of the year as the Padres travel to the best hitters park in the game to face the Rockies. Though a much better hitter against lefties, our system thinks you can take the chance on him because of the ballpark alone. Even with the reverse split he's coming as a solid raw points guy.
Strongly consider Yan Gomes
Evening Slate
Jonathan Lucroy FD 3000 DK 3800
Opponent - HOU (Feldman) Park - @MIL
FD - 9.76 DK - 7.76
I really don't love catcher on the evening slate and expect I'll be going a little cheaper when it all shakes out. But Lucroy is in a good spot here. Though he's better against lefties for his career, he's been above average against righties. Feldman is such a low K guy and has a career xfIP over 4. Plus the ballpark boosts power all around. Pitching won't cost you a ton on the late slate meaning you can overspend a bit in spots like this.
Consider Stephen Vogt and Francisco Cervelli if they are hitting in the six slot or above
FIRST BASE
Early Slate
Mike Napoli FD 2800 DK 3700
Opponent - CHW (Danks) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.87 DK - 9.96
Carlos Santana FD 3200 DK 4100
Opponent - CHW (Danks) Park - @CHW
FD - 13.04 DK - 10.23
Cue up the right handed power bats for the Indians today vs. John Danks. Both Napoli and Santana showed strong splits vs. lefties and Danks struggled vs. righties for most of last season giving up a .353 average. Add to it that the early forecast has the wind blowing out to center at over 20+ mph and balls could be flying out of the yard tomorrow. If you want to fade Coors in the early games with a contrarian approach stack the middle of the order for the Indians.
Evening Slate
John Jaso FD 2600 DK 3300
Opponent - CIN (Simon) Park - @CIN
FD - 12.96 DK - 10.19
Alfredo Simon is just a brutal pitcher. One of the worst arms in the league with a consistent gig walking out to the mound for a major league team. Jaso should be in the leadoff slot against a guy with a 4.78 xFIP last season who struck out less than six batters per inning. Plus the ballpark is about as good as it gets for power. A total deal here.
SECOND BASE
Early Slate
Cory Spangenberg FD 2900 DK 3400
Opponent - COL (Lyles) Park - @COL
FD - 12.54 DK - 10.22
As it always is the projected runs for both teams get a boost with the game in Coors Field. This is a good thing as the projection system absolutely loves Spangenberg today and for good reason. As mentioned above he gets to hit in Coors and he is locked into the 2nd in the Padres batting order. He comes at a very affordable price on both sites and is as close as a must play on the early slate as you will find.
Evening Slate
Ben Zobrist FD 2700 DK 4200
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.76 DK - 9.28
He's significantly better against lefties for his career and that was on display last season when he put up a .926 OPS and .398 wOBA in that split. He's hitting in the middle of an awesome lineup and the Cubs are going to put up a lot of runs this season. That should be the case tonight as well against Robbie Ray and you'll see Zobrist in most of what I put together tonight.
Kolten Wong FD 2500 DK 3600
Opponent - ATL (Wisler) Park - @ATL
FD - 11.36 DK - 9.19
The Cardinals have decided, at least in the early going, to run a platoon at second base with Wong and Jed Gyorko. This will frustrate season long fantasy owners but guess what? This is DFS. The platoon benefits us in daily as it keep the price down and when you get a favorable matchup like tonight he can more than pay off his salary.
SHORTSTOP
Early Slate
Jose Ramirez FD 2600 DK 4100
Opponent - CHW (Danks) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.04 DK - 9.69
Francisco Lindor FD 3200 DK 4000
Opponent - CHW (Danks) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.31 DK - 10.6
Can you tell the system loves the Indians today? I have no issue fitting their 1 through 5 hitters or 2 through 6 depending on what lineup they come up with tomorrow. In their first game vs. the Red Sox the Indians had Lindor leading off with Ramirez in the 2 hole vs. the righty Buchholz. Ramirez got the day off in game two vs. David Price while Lindor picked up two hits and a run. For the money on DK I will take Lindor all day but if Ramirez is in the lineup and you need a punt option he is $600 cheaper on FanDuel.
Evening Slate
Addison Russell FD 2400 DK 3300
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @ARI
FD - 8.06 DK - 6.41
Andrelton Simmons FD 2200 DK 3200
Opponent - TEX (Griffin) Park - @LAA
FD - 7.36 DK - 5.99
I don't throw these guys out there with any kind of confidence, but you once again are forced to roster a shortstop and these guys are cheap. That's the whole story (most times) on shortstop. You just want to fill the slot so you have a valid roster and move on with your life. Russell has the benefit of playing in a fantastic offense even if he's relegated to the bottom of the order. Simmons hits seventh for the Angels though has an ok matchup tomorrow. Again, I'm not throwing these guys out there confidently. It just happens to be you need to play someone.
THIRD BASE
Early Slate
Yangervis Solarte FD 3400 DK 3700
Opponent - COL (Lyles) Park - @COL
FD - 9.1 DK - 7.38
He's a little expensive for his skill set, but third base on this early slate is about as thin as you'll ever see. There are very few options but Solarte has the contextual factors in his favor. He's an above average bat against righties last season with a .771 OPS and 116 wRC+. Not great, but not awful considering he spent half the season hitting in Petco. And today he's got Coors in his favor. That's enough to push him into play here and I suspect he's the highest owned third baseman on the slate.
Evening Slate
Kris Bryant FD 4100 DK 4700
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.78 DK - 9.99
Bryant quickly became a star in the majors last year and easily won the National League Rookie of the Year award. He clubbed 26 home runs and added 99 RBI and a 275 average to help carry the Cubs to the National League Championship series. As he improves with limiting the strikeouts and hitting lefties we could see a perennial .300/30/100 hitter for a long time. I would limit Bryant to GPP tonight as he was much better against righties last year and struck out at a 36% rate vs. lefties.
Matt Carpenter FD 3300 DK 4200
Opponent - ATL (Wisler) Park - @ATL
FD - 13.5 DK - 10.63
In his fourth full season in the majors he finally found his power stroke and clubbed 28 homers with 101 runs and 84 RBI's last season. The only downside was the increase in strikeouts which comes with a power stroke approach(sound like a Ford commercial). He won't have to worry about striking out much tonight vs. Wisler who seen his K rate drop with each promotion to a new level and finished last season under 6 K's per 9 innings. Carpenter should get plenty of opportunities as he will be leading off for the Cards.
OUTFIELD
Early Slate
* A note on the Rockies guys. They are all very expensive for their expected production (factored for Coors). The sites have done a good job at increasing the prices for this park. I don't think they are must plays by a long stretch. That being said, OF is so thin on this early slate (relative to price) that spending up if you can get enough savings elsewhere might just be the way to go. I really hate OF on this slate.
Jon Jay FD 3000 DK 3300
Opponent - COL (Lyles) Park - @COL
FD - 12.2 DK - 9.84
The top of the Padres order is full of value as Jon Jay will be leading off ahead of the before mentioned Spangenberg with some power bats behind them. This game has the highest total of the early slate as it will be played in Coors so take of advantage of both teh park factor and value in salary and get that Padres stack in your lineup.
Evening Slate
Corey Dickerson FD 3200 DK 3700
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.33 DK - 9
He played in the first three games of the Toronto series and while he only picked up two hits in 13 plate appearances, they were both of the home run variety. He has a ton of power upside and will get lots of opportunities hitting in the middle of the Rays lineup. He gets a nice matchup on Friday night vs. Chris Tillman who isn''t going to strike many guys out and finished 2015 with a 4.99 ERA.
Dexter Fowler FD 3100 DK 4500
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.21 DK - 9.63
It has been an offensive explosion for the Cubs to start the season as they have gone 3-0 and outscored opponents 29-7 in the process. Fowler leads off in front of some very talented hitters and started the year on fire with seven hits, a double, triple(sounding like a Tim Hortons order), homer, four RBI and six runs. He is only going to cost you 8% of your salary cap and will make a very high upside stacking option with Heyward, Bryant, and Rizzo.
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Thanks for the write ups as usual… Im confused a little though i guess…
Why stack the San Diego Team who’s projected to score less runs and are not favored to win the game… rather than stack the Colorado Team who has the highest projected run total of the entire day? And are -138 favorites?
Just a little confusing to stack san diego who hasn’t scored a SINGLE run in their first series… when the Rockies will be in the same park.
thanks for explanation
You stack San Diego guys because of pricing and more exposure to Coors Field
Jared, there can be alot of factors…
Price of the player and ability to fit other pieces in to the lineup… Sure CarGo and Blackmon are nice, but at their price it makes it harder to fit the rest of a lineup.
Also, things like Splits vs a Righty/Lefty, Splits on road or home etc. That all can factors in.
Makes sense thanks
This is correct. The Padres are on there because of their lower pricing. The Coors bats have their home field factored in which actually makes them tough to play all season long because they are overpriced on the road as well. It’s all about price here.
I’m having problems understanding your website. It show me a lineup so i was going to try it and I cant find the players when I tried to draft my team. I do alright on my own, I stay afloat and I was just looking for that edge to maybe make a little profit. If that is the case I would have no problem paying to subscrib.
Did not play last night but noticed optimized lineup on Fanduel scored 189 points. Did that win any money on a short slate?
Jeffery–From everything that I witnessed, it pretty much got bested through the slate. Lineups with Jimenez pitching got pretty fat.
189 cashed in all $1 and $2 50/50’s I entered.
Interesting. 189 didn’t cut it for me in $5 and $10 multipliers.
The 189 didn’t make it for most GPP and multipliers which tend to have a higher cash line than 50/50s.
My worst day of fanduel ever yesterday. I tried to be slick and play around the weather and pick up some old reliables on no rain projected games and I payed for it dearly in the early and late slates. Oh well it could have paid off big if it hit but only scoring 60 to 90 points failed me horribly. Keep up the good work, I’ll be doing some 50/50’s to try and build my bankroll back up.
189 Cashed all my $5 and $10 50/50’s I entered.
Nice. Cubs bats were great last night which was a big help
Hey Doug, I just tried to use the stacking option in the optimizer and it isn’t working for me.
Michael. Can you be more specific about what’s not working? I just ran a couple of stacking queries and it returned results that looked ok. If you can be specific I can try and troubleshoot.
Sorry for the confusion, I didn’t realize I had a constraint taking the game out that I was trying to stack. I appreciate the reply though!
i did well last night on a short slate. ended up winning 150 on FD.
Was sitting at 10 grand until Wood bombed out for LA. Damn good picks though especially on Tucker. Let’s see what today has in store.
Hello.I am confused.Jordan Lyles is a Righty,yet in both Norris and Solarte’s writeups,you suggest they are facing a lefty.What am I missing ? Please clarify.
Hey Jeff. Sorry about that. Two separate issues, both human error. The Norris write up was simply a mistake. I corrected. The Solarte piece was numbers based on his righty splits, just said lefty. The good news is the numbers in our system are correct. When you write about baseball this much your brain can get crossed up. Thanks for pointing it out.
Lyles isn’t a lefty is he? Norris does indeed crush lefties but I thought lyles was a righty…
Never mind I see you corrected thanks. Still like him then I take it? Little hesitant myself at that price with his
Splits even in coors.
Yup. sorry about that. Correct in our DB. Incorrect in our overloaded broken brains.
Hey Doug why can’t the optimizer generate a lineup for the two game slates ?
No Problem Doug.It happens. So you’re saying you still like Solarte,but not Norris,correct? If not Norris,who would you put in that early Catcher’s spot now?
Doug,
I don’t see Lucas Duda in the optimizer. Thanks
Good catch. It was an issue with Eickhoff’s splits data in our DB. All Mets lefty weren’t there. I’ve corrected and pushed out new data. Early season baseball is a ton of management as there are so many moving parts in our data. Thanks for being patient and letting us know about issues.
Sorry.I would assume it’s Gomes now. Just took a second look. If you have any other ideas though,please let me know. Thanks Doug.
Gomes is a great play. One thing to know about our picks is we typically are writing them the night before and making assumptions on baseline data before running through optimal lineups. Typically you’ll see the same names in both places, but at times there are additions or subtractions based on how everything pieces together.
Any intentions of ever adding FantasyAces into these articles? Scorned New Yorker here who has been referring to these articles forever while playing on the big 2. I know you used to include a 3rd site, and aces appears to be that 3rd in line now especially since they are still operating in NY. Obviously basic logic can be applied to pricing and I still refer to these articles for your insight, but i was just wondering.
Thanks, always appreciate your work.
Interested in FantasyAces info here in FLA too! For any and all sports.
I’m caving today and buying the optimizer.
Quick question. For MLB, is it better to wait till the games start to get the best lineup or does that matter.
Hey Brian. Thanks for signing up. A little confused by the question. Do you mean wait until close to gametime?
Yes, is it better to wait till its close to game time to run the optimizer, or if I run it early afternoon I’ll get the same outcome?
Yes it’s better to run close to game time as possible. You might not get same lineup now as opposed to an hour from now as more batting lineups will come in that will change projections.
I’m another scorned New Yorker. Would love to see you include Aces. Yes you can apply certain info,but can never really get “the” optimal lineup by trying to translate.
I’m talking to devs now about adding other sites. If low impact, then we will get them up and going.
off topic here, but will there be an NFL tool?
Anyone else pairing lyles with Degrom in the early slate? This way I can fit a couple over priced Rockies bats in and still have spangenberg and jay also. Padres are terrible
Padres may be terrible, but sooner or later that lineup will produce, I’m banking that today will be that day, so I am loading up on them.
Don’t recommend playing hitters vs your pitcher especially one that doesn’t miss many bats
Good luck today everybody!
I got a few Padres myself for the early slate.
why are people taking the optimizer as gospel?
You should use the optimizer as a base and then make changes from there to give yourself more contrarian upside. Ever noticed 500 people have the exact same lineup as you? That is because all 500 did exactly what you did.
finally the optimizer and some gut plays paid off last night turned $2 bucks into $300 hopefully I can keep it going
I totally agree about the optimizer use it as a base maybe it tosses out some guys you wouldn’t think of then go from there. last night the optimizer spit out kyle for the cubs in almost every stack I personally think he will be a downer for most people lineups this year so I swapped him for peralta and segura then ran with fowler, heyward, and Rizzo. I did stick with chirinos and said ok lets see what I missed that they didn’t next bat dude goes yard.