Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/8/16

The regular season is winding down and honestly, I can't wait for the playoffs to come. These last few days of the season just aren't the NBA that I love. It's too much tanking interspersed with other teams playing their heart out with a dash of randomly resting players. It just isn't that much fun. But alas, we forge ahead and this slate actually has some pretty obvious value plays.

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Austin RiversAustin Rivers - FD 3800 DK 3500
Opponent - UTA
FD Proj. Pts - 23.22 DK Proj. Pts - 24.73
The Clippers did us a huge favor and let everyone know early that they were sitting CP3, Redick, Wed J and DeAndre. That helps a bunch in projecting minutes and we have a recent game that helps see how they'll deploy the run. Austin played close to forty minutes last week in a similar set up and jacked up an ungodly 19 shots. We channeled his inner Steph and went 7-9 from three. Don't expect that to happen again. But the minutes will be there for sure as the Clips will be very short in the backcourt.

Reggie JacksonReggie Jackson - FD 6000 DK 6100
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 32.79 DK Proj. Pts - 34.09
He's been steady-Eddie over the short term which sometimes is about all you can ask for this late in the season. Jackson's minutes haven't increased really, but he shows up and SVG gives him his set run. It keeps the price in check and he's got a great matchup against the Wiz tonight who play at a super fast pace. Jackson is more cash game play for me at this point because short of an overtime he won't see a bump in minutes. But I think the floor is solid for his price.

Shane LarkinShane Larkin - FD 4700 DK 4600
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 24.86 DK Proj. Pts - 26.02
Larkin's price has climbed but not to the point it should be considering his newfound role as starting point guard and dude who runs most ofthe Nets minute at the one. With the Nets obviously fully sunk we can garner a little bit of safety knowing that Larkin's role appears set in stone. Coming sub 5K on both sites is still a bargain and he does enough across the box score to keep the floor higher.

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Jamal CrawfordJamal Crawford - FD 4600 DK 4500
Opponent - UTA
FD Proj. Pts - 27.8 DK Proj. Pts - 30.19
Same line of thinking as Rivers above. In the last game without Paul and JJ, Crawford went 40 minutes, put up 20 shots and dropped a 32/7 on OKC. Expect Crawford, Rivers and Jeff Green to get a lion's share of the shot volume here and both are close to must plays considering the amount of time they'll be on the court.

Devin HarrisDevin Harris - FD 3800 DK 3500
Opponent - MEM
FD Proj. Pts - 19.09 DK Proj. Pts - 20.97
Wesley MatthewsWesley Matthews - FD 5200 DK 5000
Opponent - MEM
FD Proj. Pts - 24.48 DK Proj. Pts - 27.91
These two have been playing a ton of minutes recently in a somewhat altered Maverick backcourt. Dallas has been running many, many more small ball sets meaning there's minutes for Barea, Matthews and Harris. Dallas controls its own playoff fate though meaning they need to keep winning out over the last couple of games to make sure they make the playoffs. I think you'll keep seeing bigger minutes from these guys and both are deals in their salary brackets.

Courtney LeeCourtney Lee - FD 4300 DK 4000
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 22.81 DK Proj. Pts - 24.27
Bradley BealBradley Beal - FD 6000 DK 6100
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 27.83 DK Proj. Pts - 29.76
These two are your if/then plays. If John Wall sits again then Beal gets a big old spike in expected usage. If Batum sits again then expect Lee to keep playing minutes close to 40 per.



Giannis AntetokounmpoGiannis Antetokounmpo - FD 9700 DK 9700
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 45.82 DK Proj. Pts - 46.99
One thing that tends to happen late season in NBA DFS is a ton of cheap options and more and more questions about where to allocate those big dollars. It can be tough to figure out (if you don't have a system for this kind of thing, wink, wink) to know how to spend when there are seemingly endless punts. All that being said, Giannis is going to show up almost everywhere tonight because he's the raw points guy by a relative mile on this slate and you can easily afford his salary. He's been playing a ton of minutes and should have a higher floor in an up and down game against the Celtics.

Jeff GreenJeff Green - FD 4200 DK 3800
Opponent - UTA
FD Proj. Pts - 25.34 DK Proj. Pts - 26.81
Another guy who stands to see a significant minutes increase with the big guys on the Clips resting. Last time they all sat Green played 35 minutes off the bench and put up 19 shots. I think he has a chance to start in this game because Wes Johnson is sitting out as well. Even if he comes off the bench I'd project Green for minutes in the mid 30's at the minimum.

Gordon HaywardGordon Hayward - FD 6800 DK 6700
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 32.72 DK Proj. Pts - 34.63
He's pretty far below the two guys above for me. But the Jazz are still fighting for a playoff spot and that keeps Hayward's minutes pretty safe all things considered. He'll be playing against the Clippers' second unit, but that group has showed some signs of life in the past when playing together. I think they can keep it close-ish against the Jazz mostly because of how slow the Jazz play.

Consider James Ennis if he's still starting



Derrick WilliamsDerrick Williams - FD 4500 DK 4600
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 24.55 DK Proj. Pts - 26.02
He'll likely start again for Zinger on Friday and Williams has been excellent (from a fantasy perspective, the Knicks are a mess) since taking over at the four. Last game he put up a 17/10 in 32 minutes and could even stand to see a slight minutes decrease and still be in play as a solid cash game option. He scores and rebounds and has a great matchup against the Sixers.

Jason SmithJason Smith - FD 3800 DK 3100
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 22.1 DK Proj. Pts - 22.66
Andrew NicholsonAndrew Nicholson - FD 4300 DK 3800
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 19.89 DK Proj. Pts - 20.81
Aaron Gordon is sitting out tonight and someone is going to pick up his minutes on the cheap. I'm not saying it will definitely be one of these two guys, but more wanting to point out that either/ both make very solid Pts/$ plays if they stand to see minutes in the mid-to-upper twenties. Each is a solid per minute guy and I'd be tempted to run whoever the Magic started in place of Gordon.

Markieff MorrisMarkieff Morris - FD 5600 DK 5500
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 29.38 DK Proj. Pts - 30.42
I still think he's an upside play if the minutes are there. He's more a tournament play for me at this point because his run isn't set in stone, but if he climbs back into the mid 30's then you are looking at such fantastic value for the prices. He can score and rebound with really anyone, but he's such a headcase and can't stay on the court consistently.



Cole AldrichCole Aldrich - FD 3700 DK 3500
Opponent - UTA
FD Proj. Pts - 29.81 DK Proj. Pts - 30.28
He's the fourth Clipper and I could see easily playing all four in cash games if you can round out the salaries somewhere else. That's actually the only real concern this late in the season: spending the money. But center is the place to play Cole. He's so far and away better than the other center options on this slate that I'm going to call him the only real consideration and move on with my life. It's that wide of a gap considering his price and how the Clippers have used him in the past with the big boys out.

So yeah, basketball season! And we've got some goodies you can take with you. At the end of the post, we have our NBA eBook that you really ought to check out before setting even a single daily fantasy NBA lineup. It's free, below.



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32 Visitor Comments

  1. need to update the optimizer to remove clippers jj and blake

  2. Rivers and Jeff Green need to get healthy though as they are both listed as questionable still..

  3. What are your thoughts on Kemba Walker? He’s playing against the awful Nets and he just had a big game.

  4. I like Walker. I’ve got him in one of my lineups. He’s got an amazing matchup and boy, the narrative is there. They’ve got playoff position to jockey for.

  5. Tonight’s gonna be a big narrative based night, I’ve got that gut feeling.

  6. Larry Nance Jr. as a punt play? I read that Lakers planning on sitting Lou Williams and Bass the remainder of season.
    Would be all over russell/clarkson IF NOT for Kobe!

  7. Not really seeing why run all four clippers tonight. Terrible matchup against the jazz and Cole Aldrich didn’t produce much in his last start. I’m actually having a difficult time spending up without any clips tonight.

  8. Spending up on Drummond wouldn’t seem bad. Been a better steady eddy than almost anyone, especially at his position. No need to start Aldrich unless you really wanna spend up in the back court

  9. With so many cheap plays I’m real shocked I don’t see Drummond up here.

  10. The only clipper I trust is crawford. One of the few clips that can actually create his shot AND shoother well. Aldrich against Gobert….don’t love it. I’m actually going with Gobert in one lineup l….he’s cheap and has a good match up

  11. Aldrich would be okay if you think he would shoot the ball. Why doesnt he shoot when he gets more minutes? His numbers look the same if he plays 30 or 15 minutes. Only value he gives is the fact you can spend up on other players. He projections are way off and just a pipe dream if you ask me

  12. All the Spurs starters DOUBTFUL tonight!!!

  13. Lots of options tonight. Going to be tough for me to narrow down who to focus on. Saw some people mention JJ and Kemba above. Both are high on my radar, especially Kemba (if Batum sits) as a raw points guy next to Giannis.

    Don’t sleep on Thomas Robinson or the Pelicans players. I think there is some safety to be found here.

    I’ll be watching various injury situations throughout the day – to make sure guys are getting their minutes, but also to try and get insight into how much they may or may not be hobbled. As Lin, Rose and Butler have taught us recently, just because a guy is playing doesn’t necessarily mean he’s effective.

    And of course now that i type this out, they say Batum will “try” to play. If he does play, i’m going to have a tough time spending money. Really liked Kemba for the raw points.

    • I agree with everything you said here. This could have all been part of the picks article really. Good analysis. I like Walker too as a high floor guy.

  14. I think even if Batum tries to play, Kembas safe. I mean, how many minutes does “trying to play” equal?

    PS Doug – I tried requesting the ebook, but got nothing to my standard/junk folders. Any chance you could send it manually? Thanks bro

    • Good call Sam. No Batum makes it a no brainer, but yeah, i may end up there regardless

  15. Here is your lunch time top FantasyAces NBA lineup. Usually I hate the first L/U crunch of the day…in this case I really love today’s L/U! Has a lot of players that are in competitive spots and a coupe that have huge raw stat/gpp upside.

    G J.Crawford 22.26 4,300.00
    G J.Barea 20.13 4,500.00
    G R.Jackson 28.56 4,950.00
    F G.Antetokounmpo 40.04 6,500.00
    F Z.Randolph 30.55 5,300.00
    F J.Randle 28.49 5,100.00
    C J.Parker 28.09 4,800.00
    Util Mc.Morris 25.40 4,800.00
    Util R.Lopez 26.79 4,750.00

  16. So I was looking at FD and noticed one of the guys you mentioned, Austin Rivers, is questionable for tonight and it’s possible Pablo Prigioni will get the start. I don’t know anything about the guy, if he’s good at all. Thoughts on him at minimum salary?

    • Pablo is the classic, 30 minute, 10 fantasy point guy. I’m staying far, far away. Practically no upside. He plays the point guard spot, but doesn’t to anything other than bring the ball up the court, initiate the offense, then stand in a corner. He’s like the NBA version of a poor man’s (homeless man’s?) Alex Smith. Game Manager to the max.

      In fact, just the other night when they were playing the Lakers, i was sitting pretty in a tournament with all my players having finished their games. Only game left (and chance for other people to sneak ahead of me in the standings) was Clippers vs Lakers. And i was absolutely delighted to watch Pablo consistently bleed out the clock on every possession. At one point he straight up held the ball for a 24 second violation, didn’t even give anyone the 1.25 points for a rebound.

  17. Hey goofballs – Your article today is listed under MLB and not NBA. No wonder why I couldn’t find it.

  18. No Rivers i think means i have to go Crawford. Tough matchup, but he’s going to be the only guy able to create on offense. Jeff Green also becomes a big beneficiary, but for my tastes i prefer Crawford.

  19. With Rivers out, does anyone think Aldrich will actually shoot the ball tonight?

  20. Spurs all appear to be sitting except Duncan…

  21. What do you guys think about z bo? Grizz and blazers are tied for 5th/6th seeds so wouldn’t the grizz play their starters for a full run tonight vs dallas?

    • Jimmy, for what it’s worth, i’ve been thinking long and hard about Z bo tonight…..

      I’ve been on him the last few games and he’s been awesome. Also just a general Z bo fan.

      He’s their best offensive player by a wide margin and they seem to run everything through him at the moment. 20 and 10 seems like a pretty reasonable expectation in my mind. (or maybe like an 18 and 9, but close enough). And i think you are correct that he’ll get full run in a game they want to win.

      Only reason i’m not 100% in yet is i can’t wrap my head around the narrative for this game. The slow (ish) pace may depress his stats a little. But at the same time, Dallas isn’t great at defending down low. But then again, maybe they rotate Salah Mejri and Zaza on him and try to bang him up. Hard for me to tell how this will play out. Rick Carslile and the Mavs are good with their game plans, and they too want to win. I don’t want to underestimate them. Notice that Dallas’ defense vs position is really bad for PF (aka the guy Dirk is guarding) but really good for C (aka the guy Zaza or Mejri is guarding). I think Z bo could see a lot of Zaza / Mejri since the Grizz don’t have any true centers on the roster that would otherwise suck their attention.

      For these reasons i keep circling back to Thomas Robinson. I don’t see anyone in Charlotte keeping up with his energy and physicality down low. I think he gets an easy double double, and i may opt for him for safety sake.

      Right now i’m leaning Robinson for cash and a ZBo / Barea stack for a GPP lineup in case that game gets to a high score.

      I’ve been wrong many times before. Check out yesterday’s comments where i went Aldridge over Millsap. Didn’t kill my lineup, still cashed, but definitely made the wrong move at that spot.

      • Great response, thanks Reid. The mavs are a well coached team as they also found a way to somewhat contain Harden in their recent game. Would not be surprised to see them limit z bo too. So I’m leaning toward Robinson in cash as well, trying to decide on the 2nd pf slot for fanduel. What are your thoughts on J. Parker over Z bo for cash games? Minutes seem to increase along with his usage with Middleton out. Last I checked, Middleton was doubtful.

        You were not the only one with the aldridge pick. I also chose him over millsap thinking the spurs would play better last night.

  22. Also, den starting nurkic, who could be a nice pivot off aldrich it seems. Idk, there will be lots of value plays tonight.

  23. How many minutes will George get tonight

  24. Anyone else having problems deciding the PF position? Harris, Robinson & Parker are all 6600 in FD

  25. Have the option of Wade or Beal, who would you guys choose?

  26. Alright, here’s my lineup. I’ll probably make a few changes but here it is at the moment

    Jamal Crawford
    Derrick Williams

    Going with the big Utah guys since the Clippers will be resting all their guys and I imagine Utah should do well.

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