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Daily Fantasy Baseball News and Updates for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/9
Welcome to the daily MLB updates and news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!
Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock today.
By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the batting lineup changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!
What We Know
Bryce Harper has destroyed Tom Koehler
While BvP is not something I rely on, it is certainly something to note. In only 26 plate appearances, Harper has 5 HR, 9 RBI and 2 BB. Those are some gaudy numbers and it is pretty tough to say there is no validity there.However, BvP and our system doesn't directly account for it. But it's not the only thing in his favor. Koehler gives up a .332 wOBA to lefties and gave up 16 home runs to southpaws in 2015.
Few troublesome weather spots
We are looking at a few spots that are going to need some attention, but most of them are towards the end of that. That makes it extremely hard to make a prediction at this point so make sure to keep an eye out and make changes according. Right now there are 3 games that look extremely dangerous and those are LOS @ SFG, MIA @ WAS and PHI @ NYM. The other games that are of concern are NYY @ DET, TAM @ BAL and TEX @ LAA. These games are not looking as bad, but certainly still need to be paid attention to. If this is your first year playing MLB DFS, you will learn fast how quickly weather can change in both ways. UPDATE: After seeing some industry analysis on the weather (Specifically from Kevin Roth at Rotogrinders who's great at this kind of thing) I'd be worried about playing the pitchers in SF. Kershaw and Bumgarner could get pulled early if weather is an issue.
ANOTHER UPDATE: The Nationals - Marlins game has been postponed.
THIRD UPDATE: I'd have serious concerns over playing the early slate of games. It's very cold in Chicago and Detroit. Plus there's rain expected for the two best pitchers on the slate. Nothing feels safe here.
Tournament Stacks
The game in Coors does not need to be mentioned. Everyone is in play.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers are in a fantastic spot today with a right handed heavy lineup against a pitcher who can't seem to get anyone from the right side of the plate out. The Tigers have been hot to begin the year with run totals of 8,7 and 4. C.C. Sabathia is going to do his best to keep the Tigers under 10 runs and I can easily see him failing to do so. Sabathia has sported a .370 wOBA and gave up 25 homers to righties, 2nd worst of any pitcher. Comerica is a pretty neutral park and has plenty of upside if you can get the ball in the air. My ideal Tigers stack would be the 1-6 hitters. If I was trying to be different in a tournament, I would fade Kinsler and Martinez and move onto James McCann and Jose Iglesias.
Houston Astros
Wily Peralta and the Astros are going to face off in a game that is going to have some runs. The number one hole in Peralta's game is his inability to keep the ball in the park. As we all know, the Astros are a team that can light up the scoreboard with homers. This is a recipe for success for the Astros and this is how you win a tournament. If 3 or 4 of these guys can hit one out while your other guys are on base, that's 30 fantasy points. Wily Peralta has exhibited a .376 wOBA vs lefties and .349 vs righties. I do not mind stacking this team with both the lefties and righties.
Sneaky Pitcher
I know, I know. Bartolo Colon? that's right, good ol' Bartolo Colon. While I am not recommending this in cash games, tournaments are a different story. Colon was not horrible last year and ended up with a .317 wOBA over 194 innings. The Philadelphia Phillies trot out an atrocious lineup that consists of guys like Cedric Hunter, Peter Bourjos and Ryan Howard. Colon could rack up some cheap strikeouts and pick up a win as the Mets should be able to score some runs off of Vince Velasquez. Colon lets you spend up at other positions and will give you a unique lineup structure in tournaments.
The "Every Lineup" Guys
Derek Norris FD 3000 DK 4000
Opponent - COL (De La Rosa) Park - @COL
FD - 10.99 DK - 8.72
Norris is in a great spot against a lefty in Coors Field. This is an ideal spot and his price is plenty fair. Jorge De La Rosa struggles against righties, especially at home in Colorado. I look for Norris to hit around 5th in the lineup and will have plenty of RBI and run opportunities. Norris and De La Rosa have a combines wOBA of .313, which sets up extremely well for Norris when you consider they are in a game with a 10.5 over/under. Plug Norris into your lineups and move on.
Corey Dickerson FD 3200 DK 3900
Opponent - BAL (Wright) Park - @BAL
FD - 14.43 DK - 11.47
Dickerson has transitioned to the Rays extremely well with 2 home runs already. The Rays are in Baltimore which means they will be playing in an extremely good hitters ballpark, Camden Yards. Dickerson sported a .315 wOBA vs righties last year with 21 of his 24 home runs coming against them in 2014(injured most of 2015). Mike Wright will do his best to limit Dickerson but will not have much success evidenced by his pitiful .392 wOBA to lefties in 2015.
One other note: There are big differences between DraftKings and FanDuel pricing so the optimal lineups are looking quite different.
These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.
Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!
image sources
- BryceHarper2015SD001: By Johnmaxmena2 (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
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Washington game postponed !!!!
Yup. I updated the system. The whole early slate is a stay away for me.
Yah I had a lineup for an early slate double up. I quickly withdrew it with all this weather mess.
Well I should have a better chance to win now. 🙂
I noticed the postponed game about 10 minutes ago so my lineups were locked and couldn’t be cancelled because it was within 15 minutes of gametime. So I had to scramble and just make un-educated picks, fortunately I cleared the was/Mia guys with literally 13 seconds to go but ughh what a mess…
I think it was a good time to stack the Boston/Toronto game. We will see.
I agree with this. I just couldn’t see a line on pitching I liked.
Unfortunately in my mad scramble of dropping Ross and squeezing in sale/mad bum I pulled Joey Bats out of all 4 lineups for salary relief…. Ouch
2 minutes before I was able to edit my line up since we’ve been stuck on a brush fire for hours. Only somehow Daniel Murphy stayed in my lineup. I can’t complain to much because I was able to edit everyone else quickly.
Very disappointed in projection system….if games are postponed we nedd to know immediately…. half my lu”s are trash now. Now i know i cant rely on dfsr as my only site for news. Might as well join rotogrinders as one stop shop.
Very surprised by this comment. I had eliminated the WAS/MIA game from the projection system within 5 minutes of it being postponed. Plus I made a note in this article. What other type of alert would you have liked?
Regardless of who you used DFSR rotogrinders or anyone else, You would’ve been in same situation because you took on risk of game where weather was involved which isn’t hard to lookup yourself. I personally didn’t play early slate because of weather especially early in season since they’re usually pretty quick to cancel games with more opportunities to make up in warmer weather
Guys DFSR is a great site, you can’t expect everything to be handed to you. Do your own research as well to protect your investment.
Ugh, I thought NBA was bad in terms of last minute scratches…Looks like baseball is worse.. whole slates wiped at times.. Gotta deal with WEATHER now?? I guess I’m done with DFS until NFL starts..
and no one should be blaming DFSR.. you should be doing your own homework if you choose to play mlb.
Thanks for the shout out. I should mention again that when games are postponed they are eliminated from our system. So if you are building a lineup with the optimizer it won’t allow you to use players from that game. You’ll see prompts to refresh page with new projections.
Doug, how heavy are you going with the SDP/COL players?
You can get max allowed on draftkings fairly easy without punting pitching
The weather thing on the Optimizer just gave me a thought, could there be something like that for chance of players sitting on the Basketball Optimizer??? Just wondering…
Can’t please everyone
Locked with Bumgarmer, need some mother nature help.
Are they gonna get the mets game in tonight?
I’m concerned and honestly if they canceled I’d pull lost my entries out. I was only liking lineups with Colon at SP
Why the big points downgrade for Norris.
I’m performing some quick maintenance on the database and it was pushed live accidentally. Will be back to normal projection in a sec.
See him batting 6th why I asked. No problem was playing him anyway
Sano is listed not starting on FanDuel and in optimizer gyi
Refresh page? I see him as almost nothing in projections.
Anyone have any weather info on Mets game one site I look at not showing risk other saying showers to start then clearing
Game should be fine. Clear by 8pm at latest.
Thanks guys Baltimore game I’m seeing potential snow couple hours into start I’m staying away from that one but Colon a possibility as a SP2 on draftkings if I want to maximize my Coors bats
Matt, thanks went with Colon carpenter and Coors guys on FD and Colon C Mart carpenter and Coors guys on DK. Appreciate the weather info
Everything that I can find on the postponed Washington game was because of the air temperature, that’s what got me leery of the Mets game.
I think if they were going to call it because of cold they would have done it already. The WAS game was called something like five hours beforehand. This one is close to starting with people already out to the ballpark.
Doug are you still comfortable rolling with Colon in FD cash?
Yes
Doug last question do you like Coghlan batting 2nd for OAK or Gutierrez batting 7th for SEA?
Wow MLB is a disaster for me so far- all of my evening lineups are done due to the Bal/Tampa. I forgot what a PIA managing the weather was… Damn
Yup same. I had Morrison and Dickerson in every lineup. Thought they’d get that game in. I shouldn’t have risked it.
Was going Dickerson til I saw Raburn in lineup and know it’s still early but props to putting me on Colon no way would I have thought he’d have 6 K’s thru 4
Hey Doug the optimizer isn’t generating lineups for the last 2 games ( late game only )
If it’s FD I have it working fine. If on DK you need to deselect HItters vs. Pitchers the “Disallow Hitters vs. Pitchers” for that small of a slate on DK. Let me know if this works for you.
You’re the man
A lot of critics on this thread. Unlike the NBA plan on losing alot more playing MLB. That is the nature of the beast. If you are relying on the optimizer to give you a winning lineup every night you are going to be very disappointed. To blame DFSR for this and that tells me you do not understand the risks of playing daily fantasy baseball. If you do not understand the risks maybe you should be doing something else with your money. If you want a winning lineup every night I would suggest you find a copy of Grays Sports Almanac.
Slightly cloudy with a Chance of pain….
Most brutal piece for me is that if you take out BAL/TAM in optimizer it gives you Rasmus everywhere. System tight, I just made the mistake of trying to fade the weather.
Spit out Rasmus I played Raburn nice call still looking good as long as some more fireworks at Coors
I’m sick about Rasmus. I diversify buy-ins among a bunch of lineups almost every night in MLB. Tonight I didn’t and had 0 shares of Rasmus even though he was so high in the system.
I also changed gennett to lemahieu but still doing ok wouldn’t be as fun if I didn’t have to sweat it out
I took out Rasmus smh
Jeffrey- I sure hope your aren’t referring to my comment. I was simply airing my frustration regarding my own picks. I don’t have access to the optimal lineup tool. I’ll likely sign up soon however with having a full time job, being a dad, planning my wedding with my fiancé, and this bullshit going on in Illinois regarding the legality of DFS I’ve been busy/hesitant. BOL to all tomorrow.
Regards,
JC
$3 tourny turned into $60. Finished 59th out of 32000. Thank you
Same here paid for 2 months of optimal off a 3 dollar lineup. Good night guys
I won 529 tonight just playing with 39.00. I was 15,000 away from a hum run in the ninth by Cruz. I’m super happy thank you Kemp and Rasmus.
I entered 21 MLB lineups on DK tonight and everyone of them had Dickerson, 12 also had Morrison and a few others were TB stacks and I STILL cashed out Using optimizer. Also Played 5 NBA lineups which helped me break even on the night. I’m loving the system and wish I would have been using it since the beginning of the NBA season. Thanks for your hard work Doug
“There’s no crying in baseball!” All I’m reading up here today. Last night mu DFSR lines kicked the competition (again) in MLB and NBA. There will always be human error and mother nature to factor. These guys can’t always call that. The players that know how to play and like to protect their investments check the weather on the iffy games. Thanks for always putting those risky games in the update, saves a ton of time. Good luck today everybody.