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Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

04/10/2016
Austyn Varney

Welcome to the daily updates and injury news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!

Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock tonight.

By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!

What We Know

Jerryd BaylessJerryd Bayless is out

Bayless will remain out for the 5th straight game. The recent minute production for the Bucks should remain the same which puts Tyler Ennis and Rashad Vaughn into consideration. Ennis has picked up over 30 minutes in 2 of the last 3 games and Vaughn has picked up 40 in the same time span. These guys have a prime match-up with the Philadelphia 76ers.

Victor OladipoVictor Oladipo and Aaron Gordon are out

Both of these guys are key components to the Magic offense and leave a void that will need to be filled. The void for Oladipo is a little clearer and will be mainly filled by Elfrid Payton and Evan Fournier. You can expect both of these guys to have a very high usage % and take upwards of 15 shots each. The situation at power forward is a bit more cloudy. I will likely stay away here as the Magic will likely throw 3 or 4 players to split the 48 power forward minutes.

DFSR 705x90

Khris MiddletonKhris Middleton is out with a thigh strain

Khris Middleton has had a lingering thigh injury throughout this season and it looks like the Bucks want to make sure he doesn't hurt it seriously at this point in the season. With Middleton is out, I am comfortable playing Vaughn in both cash games and tournaments as he has seen over 40 minutes in 2 straight games.

What We're Waiting to Know

Kristaps porzingisWill Kristaps Porzingis finally return?

Kristaps Porzingis has been held out of 5 straight games but may come back before the season ends. While I do not see the point of bringing a rookie back from an injury at this point, the Knicks feel otherwise and seem to want him to come back before the season end. If Porzingis plays, he will likely be on a minutes limit which will take both Derrick Williams and Porzingis completely out of consideration. If Porzingis misses, Derrick Williams continues to be a strong value play.

Deron WilliamsWho is out in the Mavericks backcourt?

As of now, both J.J. Barea and Deron Williams are listed as questionable. This is a situation that could be key as we could see a guard or two play over 35 minutes if both of these guys are out. If both of these guys are out, Devin Harris and Raymond Felton immediately jump into huge minutes in a decent match-up with the Clippers(prefer Harris as Felton will likely be guarded by Chris Paul). If either one of these guys play, I am going to be avoiding the situation as Barea will be covered by Paul and Harris/Felton will split minutes.

Jose CalderonWill Jose Calderon play?

Jose Calderon has no incentive to come back this year and I don't expect him to do so. Jerian grant remains a strong value play at point guard if Calderon misses again. If Calderon happens to come back, Grant is wiped out of consideration as he would likely only play around 15 minutes.

 

The "Every Lineup" Guys

Giannis AntetokounmpoGiannis Antetokounmpo
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 46.02 DK Proj. Pts - 47.19

Giannis has picked up his play over the last 4 games after going cold there for a bit. Here he runs into an amazing match-up with the 76ers. I expect the 76ers to put Robert Covington on Antetokounmpo, which will not end well for Covington. The 76ers are a bottom 5 team against point guards and Antetokounmpo is basically a point guard that can also rebound over centers. This is a perfect recipe for success and am comfortable with Giannis in both cash games and tournaments.

Jusuf NurkicJusuf Nurkic
Opponent - UTA
FD Proj. Pts - 38.11 DK Proj. Pts - 38.63

At first look you may see the Jazz and wonder why he is in a good spot. Nurkic has been playing power forward and will be getting the average defense of Derrick Favors, not Rudy Gobert. Nurkic should be able to use his length and athleticism to get around Favors and score with ease. The Nuggets have some some real initiative to get Nurkic playing time. The experiment to play both Jokic and Nurkic at the same time paid off and will lead to both of them receiving over 30 minutes.

Thomas RobinsonThomas Robinson
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 31.28 DK Proj. Pts - 31.85

Thomas Robinson has been a pleasant surprise towards the end of the season and has likely earned himself a bigger role somewhere next season. This match-up against the Pacers is an average one as the Pacers have ranked 17th against power forwards on the year. Robinson is just playing too well at this point and I don't see a scenario where he doesn't get a double double here.

Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!

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120 Visitor Comments

  1. Any concern about nurkic and his tendency for foul trouble? You guys are spot on about him, he’s a per minute beast. But i remember watching a stretch like this last year where they gave him minutes for a while. He’d have a big game, then pick up two quick ones the next time out and sit for a while. He’s one of those high emotion guys that can get himself in trouble. Favors is no slouch on D, but he is a bit hobbled right now, so not too concerned about the matchup. And the price / opportunity mismatch is just incredible. So anyway, I guess just curious if his previous foul trouble issues and boogie-esque head games come into consideration at all or are you 100% on board the nurk tonight?

    • I always find it pretty tough to predict foul trouble. You are basically predicting 3-4 plays which is very difficult in basketball. On the other hand, if he was facing someone Like DeMarcus Cousins I would be much more worried.

      • Thanks Austyn. Makes perfect sense.

  2. Great first night using the optimizer last night! Cashed 6/10 lineups even though rose, price and ajinca played like trash. Looking forward to tonight

  3. If Barea and Williams out is Justin Anderson a safe cash play?

  4. Yeah optimizer keeps giving me Anderson. I don’t know enough about him to feel comfortable. Absolutely love everything about the DK optimal lineup except Anderson and Jokic (going with either Felton or Wes Matthews for Jokic). Seems like there just aren’t any good swaps for Anderson.

    Curious to hear thoughts on him.

  5. does anyone know whats going on with the clippers? Are they gonna sit cp3 tonight and if so should i be trying to roster crawford-rivers-or j.j. reddick?

    • My guess is they don’t rest guys outright since they just had a rest day on the last game, and because they want to get Blake and the rest of the starters in a rhythm going into the playoffs. That said, they could easily sit their starters in the 4th quarter, or just play them slightly reduced minutes, since the game is pretty meaningless. It’s a stay-away situation for me.

    • If CP3 does sit, I would first look at Crawford and then Rivers if he plays.

  6. I’m wondering why J Crawford isn’t more of a must play today is LAC starters back or something and are they fighting for a better spot why would they play there top dogs I guess is what I’m asking

  7. FINALLY SOME T ROB!!! LET’S GO!!!! lol

  8. Devin Harris / Tyler Ennis / Jabari Parker

    or

    Raymond Felton (could also be Wes Matthews) / Evan Fournier / Justin Anderson

    Looking for some feedback. Thanks in advance guys and good luck today.

    • Should clarify this is a cash play on DK.

  9. Also do you think Toronto will rest K Low and deroz and if so how do you think Joseph will fair

  10. Love this site! I just got into nba fantasy, been making a killing off of it lately. Will sign up for optimizer soooon.

    Danny Green has had 30 and 26 ftps against GS in their recent gms..good DK value play ?

  11. “Paul Pierce is the only Clipper that won’t play on Sunday ” -rotogrinders

  12. Justin Anderson was a hidden gem the night before last scoring 41.5 fantasy points. He is a good rebounder if given the minutes to play.

  13. Roto wire has Chris paul and Paul pierce inactive.

    • This appears like an error. I’m seeing reports that all Clips other than Pierce will play

  14. Who do you think is the better play, Trob or Dirk?

  15. Did Leonard get a bump or Greek Freak get a downgrade on optimizer? Was for all intensive purposes avoiding GS vs SA

  16. yeah what in the world happened to beal..

    • Something about his calf I think in first qtr. Was ruled out after that. Hurts cause I had him too

  17. Paul was out Friday but playing today from what I’ve seen so far.

  18. Did Beal get hurt? He checked out at 5 min mark of 1st Q and never returned. Also M Morris only played 18 mins. Killed most of my LUs.

  19. Bleacher Report says Pierce and Paul out

  20. doug do you like favors or robinson more?? notice theyre both the same price on fd

  21. ESPN has Paul out also so I guess I’m going half to change one of my line ups .

  22. Anyone worried about Justin Anderson minutes? The 38 he played last game were against Memphis. Memphis is not a particularly big team right now with all their injuries. Running a lot of Z bo at 5 and Barnes at 4. Could that change tonight against LAC with DeAndre / Blake?

    I admittedly have not watched much Dallas recently, and haven’t really watched Anderson at all. So don’t have a great read. But Carlisle is a guy that plays matchups. Could we see more Zaza / Mejri / Dwight Powell tonight?

    Has me a little spooked on him as a cash play.

    Anderson’s game log does look pretty solid though.

    Anyone with thoughts on this?

    • Considering Patrick Patterson as an alternative (no scola). Bad move?

      • And…. back to Anderson. Final decision. Thankfully the starting lineup has been announced before lock and Anderson is in it.

  23. Thanks everyone for the info on Paul. ????

  24. Deron Williams expected to play…….great, once again I am screwed because Felton won’t be nearly as significant now, thanks again FD.

    I must have some masochist in me to keep playing on FD.

      • Thanks for the encouragement Doug, you never know, right?

    • Um.. Yea. Play Draft Kings. Problem solved, especially if your gonna play a slate with a 12pm game

      • Yup….getting to that point now Joe, but I’m a stubborn mule, takes me a while to come around. Thanks.

        • Lol.. Took me awhile to come around too but it’s too annoying and it screws up your day

  25. Yes. Beal is out. Per Owner’s Box app, ‘Beal will not return to Sunday’s game b/c of a sore pelvis.’

  26. Watching NBATV they report all hands on deck tonight for the clips

  27. Want to give you guys a shout out and a big thanks after I played NBA (I usually just play MLB / Majors for Golf) and I cashed in 300+ on only 100 in bets. I was looking at the lineup for tonight and am wondering why Antetokounmpo and most of the everyday line up guys are not coming up in the optimizer if you recommend them here? I’m getting Leonard and wondering how much he will play / the Spurs care about this game?

    • I really like your picks with Harden / Ariza bc I think they will play really well to try and get in the playoffs but what about teams like Den / Orl that are already eliminated, can those players be “trusted” to perform?

  28. Wes, Kobe, or clarkson tourney play????

  29. Just very stuck here its killing me what combo should I go with… G.Dragic-N.Vucevic or E.Payton-H.Whiteside? Its tough because oladipo is out so Payton role on offense is gonna be bigger

  30. am i missing something? i havent seen anywhere that chris paul is out.

    • I haven’t seen any news yet. Other than he will play.

  31. Per Owner’s Box app: Porzingis out, Arthur and Rivers in, P Pierce out. Deron Williams in, Kobe in today & tomorrow. T Parker in. Boogie out for last 2 games.Griffin, Jordan, Paul, Redick all active today.

  32. As of 2:01pm rotowire has Paul as active for today’s game. Are the other reports more recent?

  33. someone wrote on here earlier that pierce and paul were out. think its wrong.

  34. My biggest question of the day:
    Ish Smith or Elfrid Payton
    Both have huge potential usage (Caanan out and Oladipo out)
    Neither matchup is great, Smith seems to have a higher ceiling but a lower floor.
    Thoughts?

    • Just my 2 cents. so don’t crucify me if I’m wrong, but I would go w/Payton, especially if cash game, but I like him over Smith regardless.

      Like I said, I could be wrong, but after a nice night against my hideous Knicks, I wouldn’t look for a repeat performance from Smith, he is just too inconsistent for me.

      Chances are they BOTH play well, but without Dipo I’m hoping for close to 40 minutes for Payton……GL

  35. I think the people above may be confused as it stated Paul Pierce out. Maybe they think its last names?!? LOL

  36. hope they release the lineups soon before lock..

  37. It was me. It came via bleacher report. I have no idea who to believe

  38. They’ve since corrected. It’s only Paul Pierce

  39. James, Doug, or anyone… Do you guys follow up with updates with the early, express, and late games as well as the main? Prob a stupid question but I notice that the optimizer constantly changes with main up to the last minute, but with others it hardly ever moves. Just wondering. Thanks!

    • Yes we do. I took up Deron’s minutes a tad. Down Felton and Anderson a tad. But there really wasn’t much other new news on this slate.

  40. Just wanted to sing this site’s praises. Had my 500th cash since using this site. Also carrying an 81% win percentage. You guys are on point, and understand game theory enough to always have a couple picks that will separate you from the crowd. Keep up the good work!

  41. Wow! Forgot about the deandre Jordan narrative! Should have put him in at least one L/U

  42. miles plumlee starting greg monroe out

  43. yuck this wes matthews / justin anderson combo is a rough start to the day

    • Yeah I’ve learned my lesson with Matthews and Anderson is just to unpredictable I ended up grabbing Felton despite Williams coming back today and so far it’s paid of even tho about 30% of the field grabbed him as well! Good luck with the rest of the day tho still a lot of ball left

  44. Combined: 15 minutes played, 2 turnovers, 2 fouls, 1 rebound, 0/3 shooting.

    Literally about as bad as one could possibly imagine.

    • I’m not psyched about it either. Lot of game left though, and both will need to play minutes.

      • Yep very true. I had Felton everywhere, swapped for Matthews on the Williams news… I’m killing myself with these moves. Here’s to a Wes 3-ball streak at some point during this game.

  45. Wow, so far, ptimizer way off today,

  46. Hey guys anybody having an issue with DK right now? I can’t view anything

  47. Yes, having troubles with draftkings

  48. DK is going to kill me I have Vaughn in my lineup damn.

  49. Of course dk crashing when we have to edit lineups. So annoying

  50. They should have to refund some money for people that can’t edit their lineups, I put some guys in just to get a lineup and have to edit before the game and of course can’t now

    • They definitely should. They make enough off of us as it is !

  51. My NBA contests start at 6 so hoping it’s fixed before that

  52. Now the optimizer on this site isn’t working ugh

  53. Sorry should have been more specific. I mean the draftkings NBA part of the optimizer

  54. Optimizer not working for me either. “Lineup Lab service not available”

  55. DK kills me and my entire IPad functionality daily. It steals my money. What a dogged out money sucking black hole

  56. Favors a late scratch. Nurkic doesn’t look like he’s gonna put up 38. Should’ve sat out today instead of playing. Damn

  57. Unfortunately fanduel had favors everywhere. I trusted it, didn’t account for favors laziness I suppose. Wish I could be paid millions to pick n choose when I work

  58. The NBA needs rules like the NFL around injuries and people not playing. Should have to report players being out at least 4 hours prior to tip.

    • Agreed and not even for dfs purposes. I pay for league pass, I pay to go to games and more often than not these guys sit because of fatigue? The NBA is so soft now it’s unreal. And it’s an insult to people that spend their money on it

  59. Nothing like loading up in a $25 lesgue to find out a guy sits last minute!! And he’s 27% owned in the league. Gut punch!!

  60. That’s what JVG said last night. For the fan’s sake, pay a guy $1 million bonus if he plays all 82 games!!!

    • I agreed with van gundy saying come to work and do your job. Don’t agree with the bonus, they are all already retardedly overpaid. The incentive should be you are a millionaire, famous, and don’t need a real job. Warriors players have the right idea. ” I’m 23, why do I need to rest? ” forgot which one said it but good for the.

  61. All my early lineups are trash! Had Beal and Favors. Oh well. I’ll play again tomorrow and hopefully win something. Not complaining much because I have made money and I guess you’ll have to stomach some losses also.

  62. What a blow. Usually get stung by the 10pm games…but 5pm?

  63. Favors does know the Jazz need to make the playoffs I hope..

  64. I think the optimizer had a little hitch in the giddy up today!! No complaints though. Been pretty on point for 2-3 weeks. Ready for it to do work come playoff time!!

  65. All I saw on Favors was “undisclosed”….is he really sitting at the last minute because he is tired???

  66. I was at 301 pets in DK with Thomas Robinson left to play……and kapoot! Ugh. That is my luck…..sore right knee.

  67. All that decision making between Favors and Robinson! Looks like I could have gone Speights and been better off!

  68. I’m at 300 with roughly a whole quarter still to go from George Hill…Favors is in that lineup…with Noel I’d be at +$75 right now….and if the queen had balls she’d be king right?!

  69. Sorry to whine guys but 3 different lineups in the money all with a zero from Favors…I really hate that FD doesn’t let you make changes…

  70. Favors and T Rob murdered all my lineups tonight. Then there’s Nurkic with 15. Rough rough night. At least the last two night were better.

  71. Getting burned by Nurkic…..like I said last night about Ajinca…..these low caliber players cannot be expected to do their job two consecutive games….they are too weak!!!

    And did you notice the weakness of Ennis……shameful!!!

    How about Robinson and his little girl performance……good grief!!!!!

    Richardson wasn’t much help either!!!!

    Thoughts?????

  72. I was due a horrible night, but I’ll take a week like this one every single time.

  73. I think we all need to agree that there is allot of luck involved, but this site has an advantage over anyone else.

  74. I’m with ya Jim and Jason…the week overall worked out pretty good even with the low caliber guys – until today that is….time to re-group…

  75. A person a lot wiser the me once said,
    “Sometimes you eat the bar, and sometimes, well sometime the bar eats you.”
    Great week, lets get back at it tomorrow!

  76. Can’t win them all folks… Since joining here, roughly 8 months ago, I’m at over $2500+ between NFL/NBA and, to a lesser degree since it just started, MLB (loss of -$10 or so.)

    I’ve learned, sometimes you just have to go with your gut and build around that. Sometimes you win, sometimes you don’t… Just enjoy the fun of daily fantasy!

  77. I played an optimizer lineup today, luckily it didn’t include Robinson. Scored 305. Played it in double ups and for tickets. Only lost one contest, finished 2nd by a point. On my GPP, they all scored less the the optimizer. I like the surprise picks and wonder sometimes why they are in there – Leonard, Harden and Jokic carried me. Wish I had made different modifications for the GPP. Thanks!

  78. Played the 4th lineup in optimizer with Robinson in it and still hit money in a tourney lol. I’m depressed the NBA is ending soon you guys are spot on on this

  79. Don’t get too bummed. We still got some playoffs to look forward to

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