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Harbour Town Golf Links - Hilton Head, SC
Par 71 - 7,101 Yards
It was Danny Willett getting fitted for the Green Jacket late Sunday afternoon as he closed with an impressive 67 to win the Masters. It was an incredible turn of events on the back nine that saw Jordan Spieth collapse on the 12th hole while holding a five stroke lead. After making four straight Birdies to close out the front nine, Speith went Bogey, Bogey, Quadruple Bogey to fall into third at one under par. He fought back the best he could with birdies in two of his next three holes but bogeyed the 17th hole and pared the 18th. As a spectator it clearly looked like the most painful part of the whole afternoon was being the one to place the Green Jackets on Willett's back. I do believe that this experience will only make him stronger going forward. After all he is only 22 years old with a plenty of time for more Green Jackets. On to next week.
This week the Tour travels to Hilton Head, South Carolina for the 2016 RBC Heritage. The Course? None other than the Pete Dye/Jack Nicklaus designed Harbour Town Golf Links. One of the shortest on Tour but that doesn't make it less challenging. The course is setup with very narrow fairways which call for strategically placed tee shots if you want to have a shot at the green and birdies. For this reason I will be placing a lot of emphasis on Driving Accuracy and Good Driver Percentage. The greens are smaller than average so not only will be looking Greens in Regulation but more importantly Proximity to the hole. As the course is a Par 71 setup with 11 Par 4's we will also weigh Par 4 Scoring Average highly as well. As always I will weigh Strokes Gained Tee to Green and Putting highly as well.
Below are the main stats I am weighting on the cheatsheet this week. Up to 10 PGA Tour stats are used each week. The cheatsheet also provides last 5 years of tournament history and last 5 tournaments of current form. I have also added a tab showing the course layout and yardages as well as a breakdown of the Top 10 and key stats from the last two years at the Masters. A new addition this week is an overall weighting of Stats, Course History and Current Form.
I will again this week be interacting through the comments section below and ready to answer any questions about Fantasy Golf or anything you wanna talk about. Join the conversation. And as always, I am available on Twitter @Jager_bombs9.
Also, I have joined the Slurv team to bring you live daily fantasy golf chat throughout the week. Join myself and and a collection of some of the best DFS golf minds in the industry as we prepare for PGA Tournament. Click HERE to get signed up!
High End Targets ($9,000+)
Paul Casey
Vegas Odds - 18/1
Draftkings - $10,800
Fantasy Feud - $186,000
Fantasy Aces - $5,750
He had a fantastic week at the Masters coming up just short and finishing in 4th place. I look for him to carry his form over into the RBC Heritage this week and be in the mix again this Sunday. He is in good form outside the Dell Match Play with a T4 last week at the Masters, a T9 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a 7th place finish at the WGC Cadillac Championship. The only part of his game that scares me this season is the Proximity from 150 -175 which is a fairly specific stat for the shorter hitters. Casey is a longer hitter off the tee than average in the field and should see a few more approaches inside 150 yards. He is ranked 66th in overall Proximity so he will be just fine here. He has only played here once in the last five years and finished T18 in 2014. In the other two trips to Hilton Head in his career he finished T11 and T22 in 2009 and 2010.
Matt Kuchar
Vegas Odds - 22/1
Draftkings - $10,300
Fantasy Feud - $172,000
Fantasy Aces - $5,650
If there is a course type that fits Matt Kuchars game it is the Pete Dye designs. He will be happy to leave Augusta and come to Harbour Town where he has experienced success in the past. Hilton Head is actually the site of Kuchar's last PGA Tour victory back in 2014. He finished T5 here last year and has made 11 out of 12 cuts here in his career. He is very accurate both off the tee and with his approaches from multiple distances. He is one of the best on Tour for thinking strategically and this is why he does so well on Pete Dye designs. He is also ranked 32nd in BoB% this season and is an elite putter. Don't overthink this one. Kuchar is a great play in any format.
Kevin Kisner
Vegas Odds - 22/1
Draftkings - $9,700
Fantasy Feud - $158,000
Fantasy Aces - $5,700
Another player who fits the accuracy mold that we are looking for this week. He ranks 7th in Driving Accuracy and 28th in Good Drive % and Top 40 in GIR and Proximity to the hole. He did fairly well for his first Masters last week and finished 37th and will be pumped as we head into more accuracy courses as opposed to the abundance of bombers courses early in the season. He missed his first ever cut here back in 2011 before returning in 2014 where he picked up a 38th place finish and then an impressive T2 here last year. He will be safe in all formats again this week.
Also Consider - Brandt Snedeker, Branden Grace(GPP)
Kevin Na
Vegas Odds - 33/1
Draftkings - $8,700
Fantasy Feud - $130,000
Fantasy Aces - $5,050
If not for a disastrous Saturday at the Masters(Shot a 85), Na would have fared a whole lot better as he was only two over in the other three rounds total. He started the year on fire recording Top 5's in four of his first six events before coming back down to earth over the past two months. He should be able to get back to form this week at the RBC Heritage where he has had success making seven cuts in 10 career tries. While he missed the cut in his most recent trip to Hilton Head in 2014 he had back to back Top 10 's in 2011 and 2012. He is an accurate driver which good GIR and Proximity and he ranks very high in Par 4 Scoring Average(14). He also ranks Top 40 in BoB%, Scrambling and Strokes Gained Putting.
Luke Donald
Vegas Odds - 40/1
Draftkings - $8,300
Fantasy Feud - $123,000
Fantasy Aces - $4,750
This is one player I will be ignoring stats on this week. Why? Well his stats tell one story while his course history tells another. Take the name and history away and I wouldn't even consider this pick as he is ranked near the bottom in accuracy, GIR, Par 4 Scoring, and Scrambling. Pass over those ranks and look into his course history and he is a near must play. He is the #1 course horse this week of any player having played here more than once. Dating back to 2009 Donald has made seven straight cuts at Harbour Town including five Top 3 finishes. He is manages the course very well and pretty much know it inside and out. Get him in your lineups this week!
Russell Knox
Vegas Odds - 66/1
Draftkings - $8,200
Fantasy Feud - $123,000
Fantasy Aces - $4,800
It has been an up and down season for Knox who opened the year with a missed cut at the FRYS.com Open and then three weeks later picked up his first win at the HSBC Champions and almost went back to back finishing runner up the next week at the OHL Classic. Since then he has not finished inside the Top 25 in seven stroke play events and has missed three cuts including the Masters last week. He should be able to get back to his early season form this week as he comes back to Hilton Head having made both of his first two cuts here. He finished 9th in 2014 and 18th last year. He enjoys success on the shorter courses that require accuracy. His putting is the only issue I have with his stat ranks but with an elite GIR and Proximity rank he shouldn't have to rely on the putting as much. Look for another Top 20 finish again in 2016.
Also Consider - Scott Brown, Sean O'Hair
Jerry Kelly
Vegas Odds - 125/1
Draftkings - $6,800
Fantasy Feud - $88,000
Fantasy Aces - $4,400
If you are looking for a cheap play to get in your lineup to help get up to the top guys this week Kelly is your man. He ranks Top 10 in both Driving Accuracy and Good Drive %, Top 20 in Proximity, and Top 5 in both Par 3 and Par 4 scoring average. That is a great recipe for success here at Harbour Town. He has proved that it works here as well having made all five cuts in the past five years including at T18 last year and a Top 5 in 2013. He also comes in with decent form having made eight of nine cuts so far in the 2016 season.
Also Consider - Bryce Molder, Zac Blair
Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for RBC Heritage? Chris is selling lineups only $5. He covers DraftKings, FantasyFeud & FantasyAces Cash Games & Tournaments. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.
RBC Heritage
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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Thanks for the tips. I ended up making a nice ticket for the $3 GPP and .25 GPP on DK. I won first in both contests using the golfers mentioned above. Site well worth the money I have spent on it!