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Daily Fantasy Baseball News and Updates for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/13/16
Welcome to the daily MLB updates and news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!
Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock today.
By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the batting lineup changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!
What We Know
We've got a massive slate ahead with three games this afternoon, 12 tonight, and every MLB team in action. Even better: it's green lights all around on the weather watch. You'll of course want to check back closer to lineup lock for the evening games, but if you're playing an all-day slate, it looks safe to pick and choose from every game on the schedule.
Personnel wise, however, there's reason for caution, especially when it comes to catchers. Here's a quick rundown:
- Brian McCann left last night's game with bruised foot and it looks like he'll be out today. The Yankees backstop is off to a blazing start to 2016 and hit a home run Tuesday night before exiting. If you're ok with punting the position, Austin Romine makes a interesting choice against lefty J.A. Happ in Rogers Center.
- Buster Posey is also day-to-day after suffering a foot bruise Monday. He sat out last night and watched as his replacement, Trevor Brown, smashed a pair of home runs. Given his price at Coors Field and his uncertain status as of this morning, it might be best to lay off Posey if you're playing all-day contests on a site that doesn't allow late swaps.
- The Tigers and Pirates, who played in Detroit on Monday and Tuesday, will finish up their four-game split series in Pittsburgh, which probably means no Victor Martinez.
- Evan Gattis made his season debut Tuesday after being activated from the disabled list, striking out three times in four at bats. Some rust is probably expected for the slugger, who retains catcher eligibility on FanDuel, but the upside is always there and the price is pretty good.
- Francisco Liriano, who was originally scheduled to start today for the Pirates, has been scratched. He'll be replaced—so to speak—by Ryan Vogelsong.
- The Mets are sitting a slew of lefties against Marlins southpaw Adam Conley today. Lucas Duda, Michael Conforto and Travis d'Arnaud are taking a seat, to be spelled by Wilmer Flores, Juan Lagares and Kevin Plawecki, respectively. Our system likes Flores, who will be hitting fifth, quite a bit. He's just $2,200 and SS eligible on FanDuel.
Tournament Stacks
San Francisco Giants/Colorado Rockies
Get used to this. Even though you pay a premium, it's always dangerous to fade Coors, and the Giants have a solid lineup 1-8, so it's even tougher when they're in town.
Both teams are definitely in play here, but the Giants look like the pick, especially if Posey is in the lineup. Trevor Brown (who's not even in the player pool at FanDuel) socked a pair of bombs last night and was 10 percent owned in DraftKings' $1M Sweet Spot tournament. Expect that to be higher tonight, but don't expect that kind of pop from the 24-year-old. With three home runs this season, he's already matched his career high for a full season at any of his minor league stops. Still, he's in play (just $2,700 on DraftKings) and so is any other dude in the San Fran lineup. The Giants don't many true power bats, but they've got good hitters who can take full advantage of the thin air and spacious gaps in Colorado. On a raw-points basis, our projection system ranks Posey, Brandon Belt and Joe Panik at the top of their respective positions, and Matt Duffy, Brandon Crawford and Denard Span aren't far off.
The top of the Rockies lineup is also an attractive, if chalky option. The projection system likes Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado and Carlos Gonzalez from a pure points standpoint.
Minnesota Twins
If you want to look elsewhere or find cheap bats to pair with your Coors guys, the Twins are intriguing tonight against Carlos Rodon. Given Rodon's strikeout upside (and the Twins' penchant for whiffing), Minnesota's bats will probably be lightly owned. They're definitely not the safest choice for your cash games, but that differentiation could pay nicely in tournaments if Rodon's command issues re-emerge; last year he walked more than 4.5 per 9. Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe and Miguel Sano all sport career wOBAs north of .350 against lefties, though Sano's is admittedly coming from a pretty small sample size.
Sneaky Pitcher
The St. Louis twirler is pretty unexciting (read: kinda bad), but he's got a nice win expectation (Cardinals -160), which is always nice on sites like FanDuel that award pitching wins with big points. He should also see his pedestrian K rate improved by Milwaukee, which is striking out more than every team other than Minnesota this season. Probably a tournament play only, but he's one of the cheaper arms on the slate, which makes it much easier to play Coors Field bats at will.
Also consider: Jared Eickhoff against a sluggish Padres offense.
The "Every Lineup" Guys
Here's the key piece to your Giants stacks, according to our system. Hitting fourth or fifth (depending on Posey's availability), Belt is in prime position to both push runs across and to get driven in. He's not a slugger, but you don't have to be to have big-time upside in Colorado (see: Brown, Trevor). He consistently delivers solid peripherals and is nearly split neutral, which keeps his value high when bullpens come in to play. His walks are also way up and strikeouts way down early this season, which doesn't matter nearly as much as his established track record, but is interesting to note anyway.
Trevor Plouffe
The "every lineup" distinction is maybe not the best way to term it in this case; there are loads of attractive options at the hot corner today and Plouffe isn't the highest-end choice by any means. But our projection system just can't get enough of him at these prices and in this matchup. Even if Rodon is lights out, Plouffe is only setting you back at near-minimum prices, and he's not going to need much to return value. He walked nearly as much as he struck out last year, which raises his floor, and the big-fly probability here is respectable.
One other note: There are big differences between DraftKings and FanDuel pricing so the optimal lineups are looking quite different.
These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.
Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!
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Eduardo Escobar’s DK salary is $800 off in the optimizer.
Are you still seeing this as incorrect? I see it as $2900 which appears to line up with DK
Yes it’s correct. I think it was a case of multiple Escobars!
On the early slate, I feel like a Mets stack is almost a must. I’m trying to come up with a better cash lineup but I can’t. Always have 3-4 mets.
I agree. System essentially says the same thing. 3-4 Mets in every optimal lineup. Swapping around Yelich and Cespedes. The latter actually a reverse platoon guy for his career which is interesting.
D’Arnaud is out, I believe the system liked him.
Billy Burns or Coco Crisp? They’re batting 1-2
Wood is still not showing up in the DK optimizer for tonight.
Refresh page. Fixed.
Strasbourg out sick
Yup. Working on pushing out new projections. Updated shortly
I really miss the NBA. @#$% baseball.
Seriously, who would have thought Conley would score 46 and Verret 36 on FD?
I pulled conley at the last second. I’m so pissed at myself right now. Here I go again self imploding and not trusting myself.
I’ve heard through the grape vine Strasburg is scratched for the evening.
Spent up on Trout and Cruz last night and got hosed.. Neither got a single point..
Still learning fantasy baseball, is batting order important.
Gene, ideally you’ll build lineups with top 4-5 batters in lineups because on top of production you’re looking for as many ABs as you can get. If you’re trying to decide between 2 players with similar price, matchup, and lineup spot but one’s home other road. I’ll almost always take road guy because of guarantee of 9 innings.
Need 2: Rodon, Eickoff, or Jiménez?
I put two teams in stack filter and none come up in the lineup lol
Thanks John
Gene, no problem. Another thing I see a lot of but should never be done unless playing a small slate is never play a hitter vs your pitcher(s)
Hey Doug – didn’t see your response to my comment yesterday until just now. Anywhere that could show lefty/righty for a player would be helpful, whether in the optimizer itself or in the player cards. Whichever is easier for you to accomplish would be great.
Man, somebody is going to win a lot of money with not that many points in the early slate.
Span/plouffe or carpenter/hazelbaker
my bankroll is just getting murdered with baseball!!! Its sooo hard to get this shitaki right!!!!!! The prices for these hitters is still off…im going to play the optimal lineup for a while bc when i make my own based on ISO and wOBA i come up with goose eggs and just murdered my bankroll only to find out the optimizer cashed in!!! Soo……optimizer i will trust you until these prices stabilize
Optimizer got beat too
think of this….how many times do you see the leaderboard and see some random screen name thats a winner instead of the usual…condia, ganondorf and the others you see raking it in with their awesome projection models…I havent seen a single one of them lately!!!!!! thats how hard baseball is!!!!
The 1st 4-8 weeks you should play very light because there’s so much unknown and you’re basing your projections on last year stats. When the weather gets warmer and the real values are easier to find is when you start playing for real
Like i said this is my first real year of playing this and taking it seriously…Im learning! lol…playing very light until the sample size is done
I played baseball in college and know the game very well…hunches can only take you so far in fantasy sports…this game im sure is surely based on luck!!! No matter how much statistical data you have to predict what the outcome will be its just soo sooo soo hard to get it right…but what i can tell you is no matter how many times i go against what the optimizer says more often than not the SOB was right!!! Even though you might not agree with who its saying to play its pointing you in the right direction of where to spend up and down….so if it says go cheap on a pitcher today then GO CHEAP! SOOO many times do i see the winner and guess what!? they had a bottom dollar pitcher that got the win and they loaded up with top dollar ballers! I am a believer in what the system says to do…..learning the hard way $ lol
I created the whole system, know every in and out of the database and basically have spent more than 1,000 hours working on it over the years. And even I am feeling squeamish about some of the pitching recs it’s going with today. That being said, I’m doing it.
I pay for this service because it pays my bills. DFSR has put me from winning usually nothing to already having made 1/4 my years salary. You get what you pay for and this system is VERY lucrative when you know how to use it. If you don’t, ask. Never have I waited longer than a couple hours on a stupid question. These guys work hard so we don’t have to. Thank you guys.
Doug your work with your projection system does not go un noticed…..theres a reason so many flock to your site and pay you for it lol. Baseball is a horse of another color but you guys have got a very good thing going this year. Your new projection system and optimizer are a huge step in the right direction and you have a happy clientele that has a nice bankroll to back that up. Me being one of those happy peeps. I truly believe this is your year to have the recognition you guys have been striving for over the years. From your picks to projections you have a follower for life here… this is a community and you guys have started a DFS movement with your new additions. I mean look at the comment boards…they are lighting up daily with advice/tips and help to assist people win in a sport that is soo hard to cash in on. Thats why i come!!! Keep it up guys…..I have a routine…wake up…shower…make breakfast …eat breakfast and read DFSR picks page…love you guys and couldnt start my day without you. Im sure so many other can agree
Mike, I agree I’m new to DFSR because of my struggles with NBA and they do a great job. MLB is where I made some good money and it’s a different animal because you can make the right plays and team you target scores bunch of runs and your guys can still go O-fer. I would suggest one change to your routine and that is to pick a lineup before you do any research or go on DFSR and you’ll be surprised how much you’ll start to get a feel for things
I will try that method manana..just have to remind myself dont change anything lol
lol it got franco right! good night heading our way!
yessir…i understand that method…a lineup before your decisions get swayed in other directions based on statistical data
My routine is to check weather then Vegas lines mainly O/U then pick a lineup based on feel before I start researching things
Im going to dedicate one lineup to what i feel and one to what “they say”…..anything is better than what i got going on right now lol
I’ll still use statistical data and compare because I’ll look into why I’m feeling better or worse on someone they’re high or low on. Just saying you’ll be surprised that you’re on similar guys once you get a feel for things. Trust me more often than not the final lineups look much different than original.
VALASQUEZ!!!!! and took Charlie out! grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr