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Daily Fantasy Baseball News and Updates for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/16
Welcome to the daily MLB updates and news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!
Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock today.
By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the batting lineup changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!
What We Know
One small weather concern in Texas
While this doesn't look too serious at the time of writing this, weather can change in the blink of an eye. Make sure to keep an eye out on Twitter for any updates. We will update here if the game is postponed.
Note - Check back for updates as lineups are posted
Tournament Stacks
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are in a great spot to bounce back from yesterday where they could only scrape together 1 run. Today they will be facing off with Christian Bergman and are certainly my favorite stack in the early slate. While the top 4 or 5 may be heavily owned, you don't have to stack all those guys. The Cubs are a unique lineup as all 8 guys can put up big numbers and keep a rally going. If you are looking to be contrarian, stack Rizzo, Bryant, Russell and Szczur. You will likely be the only Cubs stack with those 4. Bergman has displayed some reverse splits as he has given up a career wOBA of .425 to righties and .299 to lefties. This gives you the opportunity to use an edge against the average player that has no clue about those splits. This doesn't necessarily mean I am off the lefties as I think this whole offense goes nuts today.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers will be taking on Jon Niese and the Pirates a night after they smacked around Jeff Locke, another weak lefty. While the park does concern me, Braun proved last night that he can get it out of the park. Niese gave up 16 homers and a .330 wOBA to righties in 2015. While that seems bad, his peripherals suggest he will only decline. I know the Brewers are not a very appealing team to roster but we have to accept that they have some righty power.I look for this stack to be under 8% owned tonight, which only adds to the appeal. I look for the Brewers to get to Niese early and often with the righties. My favorite Brewers are Lucroy, Carter, Santana, Braun and Santana. If you want to be super contrarian, go with an Aaron Hill or Villar.
Sneaky Pitcher
While everyone has been targeting righties against the Padres, I think Miller goes under owned tonight. While Miller is a pitcher expected to regress this year, this start should delay that at least 1 more week. The Padres have been shutout 5 times so far this season in only 11 games. I look for Miller to have success against the righties and squeak by the weak lefties. I certainly prefer Miller in tournaments as he has definite blowup potential.
Early slate - Josh Tomlin
The "Every Lineup" Guys
Chris Davis is in a prime spot today against a poor righty in Colby Lewis. Lewis struggles to keep the ball in play and Davis is rather good at hitting it out. In 2015, Lewis gave up a .324 wOBA and 13 homers to lefties. This situation sets up very well for Davis as he will have almost every factor in his advantage. Davis is a player I am comfortable using in both cash game and tournaments.
Kris Bryant is another guy in a great spot, however, I expect Bryant to be much lower owned. Not many people will realize that Christian Bergman has reverse splits and is actually much worse against righties. Bryant has hit righties just fine as evidenced by his 140 wRC+ last season. This sets up to be a great spot where you may be able to get a guy in the perfect match up under 15% owned.
Stephen Vogt is coming off a big game where he went 3 for 4 with a homer. He wiln now step into a match up against Chris Young, a pitcher that has trouble against lefties. Vogt has hit righties very well with a 128 wRC+ and 17 homers in 2015. While Chris Young has decent headline stats, his xFIP of 5.33 suggests he will regress greatly this year. Look for Vogt have an effective day at the plate against a right handed pitcher due for regression.
One other note: There are big differences between DraftKings and FanDuel pricing so the optimal lineups are looking quite different.
These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.
Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!
image sources
- kris bryant: By MBDChicago on Flickr [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
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Well…I hate to say you’re right…but…FantasyAces premium L/U for early slate
P Jake Arrieta 14.50 7,550.00
P Adam Wainwright 4.00 6,650.00
C Stephen Vogt 4.00 4,350.00
2B/SS Ben Zobrist -0.50 4,800.00
2B/SS Addison Russell 3.00 4,150.00
1B/3B Anthony Rizzo 1.00 5,750.00
1B/3B Kris Bryant 7.75 4,900.00
OF Josh Reddick -1.00 4,200.00
OF Chris Coghlan 0.00 4,000.00
OF Miguel Sano 1.50 4,800.00
Util Alcides Escobar 1.00 3,800.00
Everytime I use reddick or any a’s not named Valencia I get goose egged or under 5pts.
St. Louis went off last night. Bumped me out of the money for gpp!
The fanduel lineup optimizer has Kris Bryant priced at $4200 yet on Fanduel he is $4600. Hopefully this can be fixed before first pitch. Love the service. Thank you for helping us win!
San off price. Can’t get a line up to match with FD pricing. Help fellas!!
Sorry for the pricing issues today everyone. Was pulling info from yesterday’s FD prices. Apologies and it’s been corrected.
Thanks guy! Happy Baseballin everyone.
Why did I go with Weaver??? Why?? Leave it to him to wake up the Twins bats…hurry up late slate, I have seen enough.
I’m stacking Brewers tonight because I think it’s a sneaky stack.
Opinions on another good stack?!?!
The obvious is Baltimore or Texas but think Dodgers are a sneaky stack
Grandal not listed in tools most likely getting start over Ellis
Not knocking anything or anyone, but so far in this season, stacks have just not worked. I have tried mainstream stacks and sleeper stacks almost every day this season with little to mild success. At this point in the season, dfs baseball seems like a slot machine in Vegas.
Baseball is by far the most variant sport. It is a DFS sport that you gotta stick through. There will be plenty of ups and downs. Just the nature of a game where you get 4 opportunities to produce and everyone has the same floor.
I would like to clarify in my previous post that when I said “dfs baseball is like a slot machine”, I was not referring this site. The dfs standed for daily fantasy sports. This is the best site by far for info and feedback.
I disagree about the stacks, I have won using the Jays, Cubs, Orioles, Rockies and last night the Mets. Today I am stacking the Brewers and Orioles in my main lineup. Pitchers have failed me thus far ???
How that work out for ya? Smh
I need to go to 50/50’s…tourny plays are ridiculous at this point in the season.
Any updates on Bal-Tex? I’m freaking out cause I got the red sign on my Balt players but I can’t find anything on the game being canceled?
Weather.com..go to radar.
Outside of Machado, how is that Brewers/Orioles stack working?
O’s stack not so bad but brewers not looking good
I know a bunch of people have been struggling early mainly because scoring has been out of whack. It will come down to the mean much like last year. If you can consistently put up between 120-130 when things settle down you’ll cash more often than not in double and triple ups on DK and make a profit. I have no idea what score you’ll need on FD since their scoring changes but I have said a couple times play light for 1st few weeks until weather gets warmer and players start settling in. Don’t get frustrated because a lot of what we’re basing our picks on is last year’s data and if you look at the back of a baseball card most will put up similar numbers except those that haven’t hit their ceiling or those that are regressing with a few outliers. Remember baseball is a game of failure as the best fail 7 out of 10 times. Good luck to everyone because it’s a grind
The problem on FanDuel this year is there’s no more minus for guys who make outs. Your homerun hitters tend to be high strikeout/out guys and last year it was risky taking them. No risk this year. I’m not sure the scores will come down on FanDuel because in big GPPS too many people are just nailing all the guys who hit homeruns.
Damn Miller hurt leaving not even completing two innings.
Rough day. Miller already done and Niese destroying the Brewers..
I’ve been playing Fantasy Baseball DFS since FanDuel began it and it’s always been inconsistent like this. I’m depositing all my money and waiting till football season. Go Niners