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Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/19/16 Opening Round
A painfully short slate today, and one game is almost certainly going to be a blowout. The other one has tons of minutes uncertainty thanks to a 37 minute player going down in game 1. It's the NBA playoffs, DFS edition! Let's do work.
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Boston Celtics at the Atlanta Hawks
Analysis
After an incredibly tight game 1, the Celtics lose the guy who plays the most minutes for them in close games. With Avery Bradley on the bench, the Celtics will need to need to replace his defense primariy, and his offense secondarily. This should mean more minutes for Marcus Smart, Evan Turner, and Jae Crowder - all of whom will be chalk plays today. There is uncertainty around exactly how it will shake out, though, because the last time Bradley sat the Celtics were in a gimme against the Lakers. With more on the line, it's tough to predict exactly how all of this will shake out.
With the incredible blowout potential of the only other game on the slate, my guess is that our lineup optimizer is going to be spitting out a lot of BOS/ATL stacks with a sprinkling of cheap dudes from SAS/MEM.
Top Plays
Marcus Smart - FD 5600 DK 4500
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 26.27 DK Proj. Pts - 28.01
Evan Turner - FD 6000 DK 5800
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 27.76 DK Proj. Pts - 28.59
The only two guys on the slate who will have an almost guaranteed uptick in minutes today, leading to slightly off prices. Both paid better than 5x on these FanDuel prices in game one, and both should see an expanded role out of the shooting guard position today. There's not really a whole lot else to break down, here - there are minutes available in what ought to be a close game, and these guys will get them. Moving on.
Jae Crowder - FD 6300 DK 6100
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 29.19 DK Proj. Pts - 30.77
More minutes will be headed Crowder's way as well, and he also turned in a very solid game 1 performance. He could have had an absolutely huge night, too, had he not gone ice cold from the field (just 5 of 16 shooting). Given the small forward options in the other game, it's hard not to imagine grabbing both SFs from this one.
Isaiah Thomas - FD 8800 DK 7600
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 39.12 DK Proj. Pts - 41.57
Jeff Teague - FD 7900 DK 6600
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 35.97 DK Proj. Pts - 37.16
I'm not sure how you don't just stack these point guards, given the mess that's going on in San Antonio tonight. Both were very effective on a points per dollar basis in game 1, and they turned in nearly identical fantasy totals. Avery Bradley's absence actually helps both of them, too. He won't be around to pester Teague (though Teague wasn't bothered by the C's game 1 defense, clearly), and Thomas might gobble 1 or 2 of the minutes left by the substantial hole left by Bradley's absence.
Kent Bazemore - FD 6000 DK 5600
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 27.33 DK Proj. Pts - 28.98
Bazemore is a very interesting play to me based on what I saw at the end of game 1. Not just his lovely 6x points per dollar performance, no. The Celtics were playing with trying to hide Isaiah Thomas on him on the defensive end, which makes me think that Brad Stevens wants to see if Bazemore can beat him. He responded, shooting better than 50% from the field, and grabbing 8 rebounds in the process. I'll double down on Baze on Tuesday.
Paul Millsap - FD 9500 DK 8600
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 42.7 DK Proj. Pts - 44.52
Al Horford - FD 8500 DK 7300
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 38.63 DK Proj. Pts - 39.29
The Hawks big men have looked very comfortable against the Celtics all season, and given the fact that they played 37 minutes each in the game 1 victory, it stands to reason that coach Bud hopes to hammer on his one big advantage in this series - big man play. Horford in particular looks like a great value, here - he went 24 and 12 on the back of 17 shots from the field, and it's very clear that the Hawks game-planned to attack the Celtics undersized Jared Sullinger/Amir Johnson combo.
Don't sleep on Kyle Korver, either. He shot just 1-10 from the field in game 1, and might get some extra looks with Avery Bradley gone here. If he spends significant time lined up against Evan Turner, this could be a breakout game.
Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs
Analysis
Game 1 was, as predicted, one of the more lopsided playoff basketball games I've seen in a while. Why should that change for game 2? I'm a little freaked out trying to even project any totals here, to be honest. The Spurs destroyed the Grizz, yes, but they did it in very weird and methodical fashion. No one played more than 29 minutes, and no one was really very good as compared to their daily fantasy basketball prices.
Why is this weird? Well, usually when there's a blowout like this, it means some star player destroyed the other team. This was just a team-wide butt-kicking, and if you played basically any Spur you wound up disappointed.
And really, the same holds triple for all the Memphis guys. They sucked, played fewer minutes, and generally did nothing all game. Projecting this one, as I said, is no fun. I'm going to do my absolute best to stack the Hawks/Celtics game for double-ups, but we'll still have to grudgingly slip some of these guys in.
Top Plays
Jarell Martin - FD 3500 DK 2600
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 17.71 DK Proj. Pts - 17.95
and
Xavier Munford
Grizzlies scrubs day! Munford has played an average of 30 minutes in the last 4 Grizzlies games, and has paid around 5x or better in each of those games. He's sort of a terrible basketball player, but he stands to get a lot of run in another inevitable blowout. And I mean, it's not like he's playing that much worse than guys like Jordan Farmar. And then there's Jarell Martin - he's actually shown some promise this season, and plays more minutes when the Grizzlies are busy getting blown out. On a day without many cheap options at all, these might be nice ways to plug up a few holes and build around real players from the Cs/Hawks game. Have I mentioned that the Grizzlies are the worst playoff team I have ever seen? They are. Moving on.
Manu Ginobili - FD 4100 DK 3300
Opponent - MEM
FD Proj. Pts - 19.68 DK Proj. Pts - 20.97
The only Spur to pay value in game 1, and it actually could have gone even better. Ginobili thrives against awful defenses, especially in transition, and this current Memphis squad is all of those things. With Tony Allen getting his run primarily against Danny Green, I think Ginobili has a high floor regardless of the game script (as he demonstrated in game 1).
Kawhi Leonard - FD 9600 DK 8800
Opponent - MEM
FD Proj. Pts - 38.12 DK Proj. Pts - 39.75
The upside guy, if you can stomach the insane price. If Memphis manages to make a lot of threes and keep it close or something, the Kawhi beat down potential is always there. He managed 20 points, 2 boards, 3 blocks, and 4 steals in just 29 minutes in game 1. If things break a little differently, and he can add 33% more points based on 33% more minutes, he could put up a monster game.
It's weird, though, because you could really say the thing about any of the Spurs players today. I just don't see them putting any more miles than they absolutely have to on these guys in game 1, and I simply will not trust it for my double ups if I can avoid it. I'd guess you'd be wise to, as well.
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image sources
- Jae Crowder: (AP Photo/David Goldman)
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Don’t forget half man half amazing Vince Carter! The only guy trying in that game who paid over value.
Paddy Mills paid over 7x with 26.8 fantasy points for $3500…love the articles…just sayin
Bazemore has knee stiffness and is Questionable, I’m sure he’ll play but do you think it will hinder his minutes/productivity?
What do you think about Vince Carter vs. Kyle Korver?
Im having the same dilemma. trying not to let the fact that Vince has come up strong for me the couple times I used him. Korver seems like the right call with the amount of shots he should put up. but Vince will fill the stat line if he gets minutes
I agree Ben that’s where I am right now. Tough picks for value plays tonight that’s for sure
I’ll most likely make sure I field both in different lineups. Im leaning on Vince for GPPs and Korver for my 50-50s
How do you figure when you say a guy paid 7x, not quite understanding that
Because the”7″ before the “x” means how manny fantasy points per $1,000 dollars of salary spent.
Ie: If they cost you 5,000$. 7x value would be 35 fantasy points. SO for Seth Curry to hit 7x value he roughly has to get you 70 fantasy points
He means steph curry naturally
Oops haha yea. too many late season gpps have seth on the mind
What is a “chalk” play …..and what does it mean to “fade” a player…..not used to all these new-fangled, high-falootin words.
“Chalk” is like a favorite horse at the track, a lot of people will be on him.
“Fade” simply means that you will stay away from using a particular player that night.
Not so high falootin when you get used to it. : – )
Damn Greg you sure are smart……I bet you’ve been to school and gotcha some of that fancy book learnin didn’t ya?
Hey Jim, practice smart ass somewhere else, the guy asked a question and I answered it.
Not everyone is all knowledgeable like you.
Greg…..I’m the one who asked the question…..I was just hackin on ya……..by the way thank you for the answer.
Jarell Martin ? Cmon optimizer you’re better than that! (Mark Jackson voice)
Currently have:
Thomas
Munford
Korver
Smart
Crowder
Leonard
Millsap
West
Horford
66% solid, 33% crap shoot, but there is just no way to roster both Thomas and Teague without rostering a potential single digit starter.
Munford should see decent minutes, Korver is a total hit or miss, and I am hoping that the Spurs open this game up so West can get some decent minutes. What do you think?
Im rolling hard with Jarell. He just makes all my lineups mesh.
So Leonard or Aldridge tonight, if you had to pick one?
Tough call. For me it’s Leonard, but I know I could be mistaken. I just figure that Leonard has more run of the offense, and that he is more versatile, although I know that Aldridge could blow up with a reasonable amount of minutes.
GL.
Leonard if they blow the game open again hopefully he has a big hand in it
If Bazemore can’t play is Scott worth considering?
Only player worth rostering in MEM/SAS is Lance Stephenson. His minutes are secure and he has the ability to fill up the stat sheet. You heard it here, first.
How about Zach Randolph. He got 13 shots in less than 30 minutes? Could put up a nice line even in a blowout and he’s not terribly overpriced.
V carter or serfolosha? ?
I’ve got a few uuuuuuuuugly look in lineups out there phew
GPP will be tough today. Such a short slate and just like everyone says, BO in the Alamo!!! Yikes, what to do??!!!!
Greg I like your LU, but……..Korver has been a totally turd here near the end of the season and in the PO. I have rolled with him here lately and he has burned me everytime. I’m not sure on him. The rest looks solid. IMO
Thanks Steve…..yeah, I know that Korver is risky as hell, in fact I can’t believe I am even considering him at all. He has burned me too, but I have to squeeze a couple of bottom feeders into my LU if I plan on playing the rest.
I had decent looking LU without either Smart or Turner, but I think you have to have at least 1 of those guys in there to go with Thomas tonight, hence the Korver consideration.
I might still tweak it a bit, but there are a very limited amount of moves to make, I just know that I’m going to miss the “sleeper” play of the night…….always do….lol
*Total*
I double dog dare anyone to put Kyle Korver and Danny Green in the same lineup…….thoughts?
Damn Jim, a DOUBLE DOG dare, that’s heavy dude.
I’ll pass……but hey, if you have a hunch, don’t let me or anyone else talk you off of it. I have Korver in my LU right now, and that makes me queasy enough, adding Green to it would cause a panic attic.
Bahahaha!!!!
I’d rather shoot BOTH eyes out!
I chickened out
I’m just hoping Bazemore plays tonight. It was hard making a lineup tonight. But I guess no one is really too confident tonight.
Jim, I will take that dare!!! lol, Syke!!!! No way. Chris G. I agree, this was rough. I still have not put in a LU yet. This is awful!!! The optimizer can only do so much with what they have lol
I can put up more points in 30 min than Danny green. My hate for Danny green is deep
hes due for a big night tho
Mine too Tom. I feel you
the optimizer is looking on POINT today, just had to make a few tweaks
What did you tweak? I think it looks awful
Tom, not sure what you are referring to here that looks “awful”. Adjusted Sullinger up some with no Olynyk. Smart starting came up just a tad. Sefo down about one minute. If looking for a very safe lineup tonight, it simply won’t happen. Two game slate with one projecting to be a blowout. Such is NBA Playoff DFS
I’m curious. Is Olynyk Out or is he a GTD? And if he is out, will anyone consider playing Jerebko?
Anyone touching the SAS/MEMP game
Decided to ditch Millsap, and added some more expensive SF, and PF to replace Jarrell.
Sure he might put up 20-25, but he won’t have another 60 game that’s for sure
What’s so bad about it?
i think thats dfs suicide on a night with such a short slate and you have no room for error what so ever tonight millsap will be highly owned and probably will have a great game so if you dont have him in a lineup youre shooting yourself in the foot
Im running with Jerebko in one of my gpp’s. May be a long shot, but he may go off tonight. He has done that in the past. Gutsy play I know.
Per FD Olynyk is out.
Thanks Steven. I knew I wasn’t crazy putting
him in a LU lol.. Playoff basketball is giving me grey hair trying to play FD..
Is anyone high on Korver? He has burned me sooooo many times. Is he in for a good game tonight? Should I roll at least one LU with him?
You talked me off Korver Steve. I really revamped my LU, and ironically it’s pretty damn close to the advice from James:
Thomas
Teague
Smart
Turner
Crowder
Bazemore
Millsap
Martin
Duncan
With the exception of Horford, I have rostered everyone else from the Hawk/Celtic game that was suggested. The primary change is starting Duncan at C, and hoping that he secures enough minutes (22-25) to get into the high 20’s in points. Of course the wild card is Martin, but I’d rather deal with 1 risk than 2 or more.
With all that said, I’m now certain that Korver will light it up tonight, because that’s just the way things have gone down for me lately…..lol
One gpp lineup I have 1100 left on the table lol can’t make that lineup work in a way I like with using more
Thomas Miller where you at?? Always good inout and advice!
Input
On a slate like tonight, I think you have to expect to leave money on the table.
I have gregs lineup but I got horford and west instead, figure he will see almost as many minutes as Duncan due to blowout factor.
The numbers don’t add up Trey, unless you are on a different site…….I’m on FD, and there is no way I can get Horford and West in that lineup without making another change somewhere.
I’m banking on the Celtic and Hawk stacks to make up the minutes that Duncan and Martin will not be getting. Anyway, good luck, I hope your LU pops!
West is like playing dice, sometimes he’s on sometimes he’s meh
Bazemore playing
I would play Manu over Korver and Danny Green
I really hate when that red “reload” button pops up 1 minute from lock…..
I have the following in a $5 2000+ player league
Thomas
Teague
Turner
Smart
Crowder
Sefolosha
Millsap
Martin
Horford
Obviously, Thabo and Martin are barely owned but no one is owned over 60%!! What am I missing?? Especially at PG. figured a few of those guys would be close to 90% on a 2 game slate. Good for me if they hit their points but just very confused as to where other ownership is going??
I decided to throw all caution to the wind and go for broke tonight……………………and I’m sure that’s where I’ll end up………………broke
Teague
Thomas
smart
Stephenson
crowder
barnes
sullinger
j. green
horford
thoughts anyone?
Barnes is an intriguing play, but I played him last time out and got burned, he should do better tonight right?
I like Sullinger, but Green and Stephenson are big time ?’s, then again if they hit, you are in really good shape, especially since they will be low owned.
GL. Oh, and btw, “hit” means “do well”, just in case you weren’t up on the lingo…….: – )
thanks boss………………….for the wisdom 🙂
smart hurt
korver hot
my luck continues
smart ok
korver hot as hell
Celtics suckin in every way
my luck continues
Fantasy sports continue! Celts get blown out. Memphis keeps it close and all their guys have huge value!! Opposite things happen again!!
Stacked the wrong game
The first game is the game to stack they said, it’ll be much closer than the second game they said
it’s all luck I’m afraid
Korver still sucks……doing well every 10th game doesn’t make you a good player
how about sullinger and Thomas and their great disappearing act……..david copperfield would be proud
all because I picked them up tonight…………….amazing
let’s not forget smarts magic act either
this boston performance may be the worst I’ve ever seen………………………….it’s so bad it’s starting to rub off on the team they are playing……………such cheese whiz
Jim, I took your dare and put Green and Korver in the same lineup…. so far the only person killing my lineup is Millsap….
good job……………….you’ve got marbles……….even I chickened out and I’m getting destroyed………..I hope you win huge cash
Jgo99 is leading both dk gpp $3 I’ve seen this guy win a couple times.. anybody know him?
And as expected, I take Korver out of my LU, and of course he blows up.
What a sickening display of basketball in ATL tonight.
Smart and Crowder combine for 5 points!!! LMAO!!! So much for logic, at this rate Memphis will probably knock off the Spurs tonight.
Jgo99 is probably a bot………ijs
Man the optimizer has been garbage during the playoffs!