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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/21/16
Welcome to a fun split-slate day of MLB. Today we have a ton of aces and some gas cans as well. Make sure to check out the updates article as well as it touches on any breaking news, weather concerns and even more picks. Let's get right into it!
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PITCHER
Early Slate
Clayton Kershaw FD 13000 DK 13600
Opponent - ATL (Wisler) Park - @ATL
FD - 52.56 DK - 30.69
I am going to be playing Kershaw in every format on every roster this morning. I truthfully don't see a chance Kershaw gets blown up by the Atlanta Braves and their one borderline great hitter, who is a lefty. Kershaw absolutely dominated both righties and lefties last year with a combined .232 wOBA and 1.98 xFIP. The Braves have a very weak offense with guys like Jace Peterson, A.J. Pierzynski and Jeff Francouer slated in there. I am comfortable paying the hefty tag on Kershaw as there are no high-priced hitters I feel obligated to play. Look for Kershaw to have another ho-hum dominating outing.
Consider - John Danks, Max Scherzer, Taylor Jungmann
Evening Slate
Jake Arrieta FD 12100 DK 11100
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @CIN
FD - 39.75 DK - 22.04
Arrieta is the other ace in the league that I absolutely love to play as it seems like he dominates every time out. Arrieta sported a combined .222 wOBA in his 2015 Cy Young year. His peripherals suggest he will keep up that level of play throughout the rest of this season. This Reds lineup provides plenty of upside with strikeout prone hitters in Jay Bruce, Billy Hamilton, Devin Mesoraco and Zack Cozart. I do prefer Arrieta in cash as there is another pitcher with similar upside on the slate. Let's get to him.
Gerrit Cole FD 9700 DK 10300
Opponent - SD (Shields) Park - @SD
FD - 33.57 DK - 18
Here he is folks, Gerrit Cole. The top pitcher on this slate, price considered. The San Diego padres have been by far the worst team in the league against righties with a team batting average of .213. In 2015, Gerrit Cole exhibited a combined wOBA of .277 and an xFIP of 3.10. Cole will only improve considering he is only 25 years old and has been working on his 3rd and 4th pitches. I am comfortable with Cole in both tournaments and cash games and he's working in a fantastic pitcher's park.
Consider - Edinson Volquez
CATCHER
Early Slate
Yasmani Grandal FD 3000 DK 3100
Opponent - ATL (Wisler) Park - @ATL
FD - 10.73 DK - 8.37
Yasmani Grandal has been hitting pretty well after coming off the DL with an injury sustained this spring. Grandal has always been a great hitter vs righties with a career .342 wOBA. Matt Wisler has been very bad against lefties with a career .419 wOBA. There is no reason to not like Grandal in this spot. He will likely hitting 6th or 7th, which I am comfortable with considering the position and price. Update: As has been pointed out to us, Ellis catches Kershaw. And you can consider him in play on a weak catcher slate.
Consider - Dioner Navarro
Evening Slate
Evan Gattis FD 2400 DK 4000
Opponent - TEX (Griffin) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.22 DK - 8.88
Evan Gattis has been hitting decent since coming off the DL with hits in 4 of his last 5 games. Gattis has hit righties just fine over his career with a .328 wOBA and 53 home runs. There is almost no chance Griffin has a good game against these Astros and Gattis should be right in the middle of it all. Griffin has been an average pitcher over the course of his career but has recently struggled keeping the ball in the yard. UPDATE: Gattis isn't playing tonight. Our projections have been updated to reflect this change.
Consider - Matt Wieters
FIRST BASE
Early Slate
Adam Lind FD 2100 DK 4200
Opponent - CLE (Anderson) Park - @CLE
FD - 11.36 DK - 8.99
Lind has been somewhat frustrating to roster this year as he keeps disappointing in quality match-ups. However, you can't approach baseball with a "never again" attitude as you will get destroyed. Lind has dominated righties his whole career and the fact he has struggled over 15 games means nothing. Lind has a career wOBA of .368 and a SLG of .507 against righties. Anderson has been bad against lefties with a .324 and 7 home runs given up in only 45 innings.
Jose Abreu FD 3400 DK 4500
Opponent - LAA (Weaver) Park - @CHW
FD - 13.55 DK - 10.67
Abreu is another hitter that has been below average to start the year. However, he is another player with a track history good enough to look past 20 games. Weaver is a pitcher I love to target righty power with as his fastball has dropped to around 88 MPH. Abreu will be able to turn on one and send it yard. U.S. Cellular is a great park and Abreu is my pick for homer of the day.
Consider - Albert Pujols, Brandon Belt, Hanley Ramirez
Evening Slate
Chris Davis FD 4200 DK 4900
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.95 DK - 10.77
Chris Davis has been playing pretty well to start the year and will look to show some more power in a match-up with Marco Estrada. If I could pick one pitcher I would want Chris Davis against, this is it. Estrada has one main weakness and it is keeping the ball in play. That doesn't bode well when you are attempting to get Chris Davis out. Davis hit righties to a .360+ wOBA 2 years in a row and will do so again this upcoming year. Chris Davis is my pick for homer of the night
Edwin Encarnacion FD 4000 DK 4800
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.54 DK - 10.5
Encarnacion will be facing off with a reverse splits pitcher in Chris Tillman tonight in Camden Yards. Tillman sported a .353 wOB in 2015 against righties while giving up an atrocious 17 homers in 87 innings. I look for Edwin to get some healthy hacks against Tillman and get one out. The Blue Jays are certainly going to get to Tillman and Encarnacion will be right in the middle of it.
Consider - Anthony Rizzo, Justin Smoak
SECOND BASE
Early Slate
Robinson Cano FD 3500 DK 5100
Opponent - CLE (Anderson) Park - @CLE
FD - 12.15 DK - 9.7
Cano started off the year and has since cooled down. However, this is the match up where looks to get back to his hot start with power and RBI's. I expect the Mariners to get to Anderson and if they do, Cano will be the main reason. Cano hit righties to the tune of a .378 wOBA over the course of his career. As mentioned above, Anderson is a below average righty that can be taken advantage of with patience.
Chase Utley FD 2800 DK 3300
Opponent - ATL (Wisler) Park - @ATL
FD - 10.74 DK - 8.58
This is contingent on Utley hitting leaadoff once again. The simple reasoning for this pick is Utley will be at the start of a lineup that is my favorite on the day. There is no reason for me to believe that Utley will be the lone bat that struggles to get going against the poor Matt Wisler. I won't go into why Wisler is a great pitcher to pick on, just do it.
Consider - Dee Gordon, Dustin Pedroia
Evening Slate
Ben Zobrist FD 2900 DK 4300
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @CIN
FD - 9.69 DK - 7.62
Ben Zobrist hit two to the warning tack the other night which tells me how well he is seeing the ball. Finnegan will likely struggle against this Cubs team as they saw him just last week. I expect Maddon and the Cubs to be very prepared on the first pitch that get across strikes. If Zobrist is hitting 3rd, he is in a prime spot. If Maddon moves him down, i would look to one of the guys below.
Consider - Jose Altuve, Ryan Goins
SHORTSTOP
Early Slate
Jonathan Villar FD 2700 DK 3500
Opponent - MIN (Nolasco) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.95 DK - 9.58
Villar looks like he will stick around hitting in the top part of the lineup that has been hot. While I prefer playing the Brewers against lefties, Villar is a bit of an exception. He is good vs both righties and lefties and has the ability to produce on his own. Nolasco is a pretty bad pitcher at this point in his career and showed that with a combines wOBA of .377 in his last full season.
Consider - Andrelton Simmons, Francisco Lindor
Evening Slate
Javier Baez FD 2300 DK 3400
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @CIN
FD - 9.82 DK - 7.75
Javier Baez has been hitting the ball very well coming off the DL and will look to have a huge year with the Cubs. Brandon Finnegan is an average pitcher that struggles against righties. Finnegan gave up a .303 wOBA to righties with 5 home runs in only 30 innings in 2015. However, that is a very small sample size and his xFIP suggests that wOBA should be around .370.
Consider - Troy Tulowitzki
THIRD BASE
Early Slate
Kyle Seager FD 3400 DK 4600
Opponent - CLE (Anderson) Park - @CLE
FD - 11.62 DK - 9.19
Kyle Seager has been seeing and hitting the ball well. The problem, however, is he has hit it right to people with a .152 BABIP on the season. This will not continue and Seager will begin to show just how talented he is. Seager hit for a .322 wOBA against righties last year and will only improve with his age entering towards his prime.
Yunel Escobar FD 3000 DK 3300
Opponent - CHW (Danks) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.7 DK - 9.42
While Yunel Escobar is not a player I want to play, John Danks may force me. There are not too many stats to point out for Escobar as he is a very average player. However, if Escobar is hitting leadoff once again, you must consider him. As mentioned with Trout, Danks is atrocious vs righties and at keeping the ball in the yard. I look for the Angels to get to Danks and for Escobar to be involved. I prefer Escobar in cash with Seager sitting right there.
Consider - Justin Turner, Todd Frazier
Evening Slate
Mike Moustakas FD 3600 DK 3900
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @KC
FD - 11.65 DK - 9.28
Moustakas and the Royals will be facing off with the poor righty Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey is going to give up some runs against this team and you better believe Moustakas will be involved . Moustakas hit righties very well in 2015 with a .353 wOBA and 123 wRC. There is no signs pointing to decline or anything besides improvement. I look for "Moose Tacos" to have a productive night. He is viable in all formats.
Consider - Josh Donaldson, Luis Valbuena
OUTFIELD
Early Slate
Mike Trout FD 4600 DK 5200
Opponent - CHW (Danks) Park - @CHW
FD - 17.87 DK - 13.9
Trout is finally seeing the ball well and is about to explode. I expect Trout to have an amazing upcoming week and we need to hop on before everyone else starts to. John Danks is bad lefty that has struggled with the home run against righties. In 2015, Danks gave up a .353 wOBA to righties and his peripherals suggest it should of been around 4.00. I look for Trout to see the ball well here and put the bat on it. I am comfortable with Trout in all formats due to his floor and ceiling.
Note - If you are deciding between Trout and Kershaw, go with Kershaw. Hitting is much more volatile.
Oswaldo Arcia FD 2500 DK 3600
Opponent - MIL (Jungmann) Park - @MIL
FD - 12.82 DK - 10.09
As I write this, Arcia just hit a home run against Jimmy Nelson. Arcia was in all of our system's optimal lineups last night and has been hitting well lately with multi-hit games in 3 of his last 4 games. Jungmann is an up and coming pitcher but has certainly struggled against lefties. In 2015, Jungmann gave up an xFIP of 4.06 to lefties. There is a good chance Arcia gets a hold of one and lets it ride.
Consider - Joc Pederson, Domingo Santana
Evening Slate
Adam Jones FD 3000 DK 4300
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.02 DK - 9.6
Adam Jones will be taking on Marco Estrada. Cue the home run music. As mentioned above, Estrada is one of the leagues worst at giving up homers, if not THE worst. In 2014/15, Estrada gave up a ridiculous HR/9 of 1.73. Camden Yards will not help these matters and will only help carry the ball out. I am more giddy about Jones in tournaments as he is power reliant in this match-up.
Michael Saunders FD 3200 DK 3700
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.91 DK - 9.35
Saunders is going to keep showing up in this article until his price goes way up or the Jays move him back down in the lineup. Neither of these will happen tonight, which makes Saunders a terrific play once again. As noted above, I expect Tillman to have some trouble with this lineup and for Saunders to be right in the middle of it. Saunders also gived you some speed upside which makes him very reliable in all formats.
Consider - Jose Bautista, Mark Trumbo, Aaron Hicks
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Is kershaw a must play in cash games? I want to gain an edge but is it to risky to look elsewhere and miss the boat on him?
Don’t think he’s a must with other elite starters going but hard to fade Kershaw in cash especially with matchup. All depends if you feel comfortable with value bats you’ll have to plug in
So far it has been too risky. Although what I would do is set lineup with kershaw in it. Look at who you have rostered. See if there is anyone you have too swap. I suggest swapping no more then 2 players. (Although you may need to go down or what not. I wouldn’t follow any previous games stats in today’s slates either. Lots of goose eggs and double digits numbers we are gonna see. I’m fading playing heavy today and just having fun. Cashed in 4 lineups 3 with Ricky P and 1 with Mad Bum today. Bums lineup was better then any of my Ricky lineups and I scored higher somehow. Baseball is crazy
Ellis likely to catch Kershaw. As always check lineups Boegarts left game last night if Shaw bats 3rd nice price to help fit in pitching
Apparently this writer fails to realize that when Kershaw pitches its almost a given that Ellis catches…everytime
Thanks for the catch (get it?) on Ellis. I updated the picks.
Doug, Optimizer not working
Reload page. If you mean it was blank, I’ve corrected that. If you mean something else, let me know.
Is there a place to go to see when my membership expires? My optimizer tool isn’t working, not sure if its on your end or if I need to subscribe again? I didn’t think my month was up yet but it could be. Any help would be appreciated. Thanks.
It’s back
Excellent. Still though is there a place I can go to see when my subscription runs out?
Pederson is batting 4th today. Is he a must play for LAD now?
He’s showing up in optimal lineups. This is fantastic plate appearance expectation coming against a weak arm. I’d say probably a must.
Other than Kershaw as well…who else are the musts for the early slate for cash games?
Scherzer looks great without Stanton in the lineup today!
Optimizer is worrying me. Brewers just released their lineup and Gennett is starting so there goes value out the window with Walsh. And Im leaning towards avoiding the Mariners-Indians and Angels-White Sox games because of likely weather concerns….that all being said a lot of the value is gone which is going to make this early slate rather difficult imo. Come on guys lets help each other out here lol
the Optimizer has been killing me in both NBA and MLB lately. What gives ?
Really? Crushed FD last night.
NBA is just stupid right now. I will likely be avoiding it. MLB for someone that is new to MLB has been great to me and I owe a lot of that success to the optimizer. Ive seen a lot of complaining about it but I use it as a stepping stone to help me pick at least half of my team and then I go with my gut and my personal preferences on the other choices and it has been cashing on a nightly basis for me for the most part.
Michael, Culberson is starting and dirt cheap vs. Braves.
I noticed that.
The more I keep thinking I keep wondering if Kershaw is a must on cash games? Am I just overthinking it?
I’m playing Kershaw in a 50/50. I’m sure everyone will have him but he’s a safe play (especially against a bad team like the Braves) who’ll put up points.
He’s a must play IMO
Walsh is still in the optimal lineup and he isn’t in the starting lineup today.
Yup. Fixed. Our Lineup feed wasn’t picking that game up for some reason, but it is now.
Between some weather concerns and lack of starting lineups I’m getting less excited about this early slate.
Yeah same here. I can’t really find anything that I like. I really like Kershaw and Price but its hard to fit them both with taking some decent batters that aren’t all complete punts.
My tourney play for early slate:
Jungmann
Ramos
Abreu
Cano
Rendon
Lindor
Trout
Cruz
Pederson
Going light as this lineup could be moot if Kershaw or Max go off……….
Might want to update this article, so far a good number of suggested plays are out of the lineup today…
All projections are updated in our system.
This just sounds awful but den Dekker or Clint Robinson?
Den Dekker and I don’t think it’s horrible. Great price for a leadoff hitter
Actually playing both to pay up for pitchers. Don’t know much about polanco. Polanco or Simmons?
Both good plays for $ but if weather is a concern I’d go Polanco
At least I have couple hours to get info on weather
The first time I pick Kershaw and hes getting lit up
Night slate looking like picking right jays O’s royals while still being able to get some top pitchers in
It’s not his best outing, but he will help you cash. Scherzer on the other hand is getting rocked. Has a -3.45 in the 3 innings of work
Kershaw getting lit up. Nice analysis, as he goes 8ip strikes out 10 and only give up a run. Please tell me where “lit up” comes into play… hits aren’t runs.
What are you guys thoughts on Cubs v Reds game with the weather concerns? Playing players from that game or avoiding?
Mark Canha batting 2nd in a hitter’s park and only 2,400 on FD seems to me to be a decent value play tonight…especially in a hitter’s park and a pitcher who is decent but not one to fear.
Gattis isn’t playing Doug. Austyn, don’t u think he should only be recommended va lefties in the future? I cleaned up on both FD and DK last night. Needed it badly . Now on to tonight’s games. Cole at P for sure. C will be a punt Saunders for sure. A couple Orioles prob Davis . Estrada has been pitching well but Davis I a better bet to go yard than not.
How safe are we feeling about rostering Cubs tonight with the weather concerns?
Not safe at all I ain’t touching the cubbies
Jays Astros royals for cash games and Coke for pitcher. Maybe one oriole as well
Lol Cole that is
I gotta say you guys have been on fire. Baseball DFS is
not for the timid! Thanks for all your work!
I’m stacking Tor&Bal….I’m probably crazy but I’m seeing
some hitting going on!
Which combo?
Rich Hill/Chris Davis/Manny Machado
OR
Cole/Jaso/Escobar
First one tournament, second one cash
Cole Jaso Escobar . Hill too risky
I just almost hate to pay up for pitching anymore? It has burned me more often than not. Every time I pay up the ace gets hit like crazy and if I go cheap on pitching and stack up on bats then it always has worked out for me. I dunno what to do anymore.
If that’s yunel Escobar you don’t want him since he went 0 for 4 already
So everyone staying away from the Cubs? I only see 30% rain but I’m assuming it must be worse
Ouch the Cubs killed my hopes and dreams.
I used the Cubs and killed it tonight finished 5th in a 10k tournament !!! Won big on all my lineups that’s for the suggestions on some guys !!! ?
Awesome!!!!!