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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/20/16
Welcome to Wednesday! Last night was some fun with some fireworks as well as some good pitching. Today we are dealing with a full main slate and a mini early slate. These picks will be for the main slate, however, I will list a play or two for the early slate. If you have any questions on either slate, make sure you comment down below and I will get back to you as quickly as possible. Hope everyone has a fun and profitable Wednesday!
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PITCHER
Madison Bumgarner FD 10800 DK 11400
Opponent - ARI (Greinke) Park - @SF
FD - 41.05 DK - 22.78
Madison Bumgarner is my favorite pitcher on the night and it is not too close. The Arizona Diamondbacks are not a team that scares me, especially out of Chase Field. While the Diamondbacks have one great hitter against lefties in Paul Goldschmidt, the rest of the lineup is pretty watered down with guys like Nick Ahmed, Brandon Drury and Chris Owings. If Bumgarner can get past Goldschmidt, he will be in for a spectacular night. In 2015, Bumgarner exhibited a combined wOBA of .255. He added to those numbers with an elite 32.9% strikeout percentage. This field is a huge bump for Bumgarner as the Diamondbacks will be going from a top 5 to bottom 5 park for hitters.
Drew Pomeranz FD 6200 DK 6300
Opponent - PIT (Locke) Park - @SD
FD - 30.37 DK - 16.22
Through 3 starts, Pomeranz has shown some potential as well as some consistency. Pomeranz is the 3rd cheapest pitcher around the industry, which is just too cheap. He will facing off against the Pirates in Petco Park, the league's best park for pitching. The match-up against the Pirates is an average one as they can struggle to get the ball out of the park. Pomeranz has exhibited a 32% strikeout rate so far this year. while we cant'expect that, his peripherals suggest we can expect something close to it. If you are looking for some value at pitcher, this is the best route.
Raisel Iglesias (Early Slate) FD 7800 DK 7300
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @CIN
FD - 30.64 DK - 16.18
Iglesias is an early only play, as the Reds play at 12:35 EST. Iglesias is simply too cheap, and in too good of a match-up. The Rockies struggle like crazy outside of Coors Field. Iglesias has flashed his upside in the past with a 35% strikeout rate against righties just last year. Over the previous 2 years, Iglesias has exhibited an above league average combined wOBA of .298 With the exception of Carlos Gonzalez, the Rockies have struggled mightily on the road. Iglesias is my number 2 pitcher in all formats, behind Chris Sale.
Consider - Joe Ross, Jimmy Nelson, Chris Sale
CATCHER
Stephen Vogt FD 2800 DK 3300
Opponent - NYY (Eovaldi) Park - @NYY
FD - 10.95 DK - 8.66
Vogt is likely going to be the chalk catcher of the day, rightfully so. Vogt enters this game seeing the ball very well with a home run in 2 of his last 4 games. In 2015, Vogt hit righties to a .358 wOBA clip, well above league average. While Eovaldi is a decent pitcher, he tends to leave his fastball up on occasion, which doesn't bode well in Yankees Stadium. Vogt pulled 17 of his home runs last year, which is exactly what we need him to do tonight. I am going to give a bold prediction here and say Vogt hits one out to the short porch in right.
Jonathan Lucroy FD 2800 DK 3300
Opponent - MIN (Milone) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.87 DK - 8.64
Lucroy is another hitter in a great spot against a bad lefty. Tommy Milone is a left handed pitcher who struggles against right as evidenced by his .331 wOBA in 2015. Lucroy on the other hand, Lucroy hit lefties to the tune of a .367 wOBA. Miller Park moves the needle in favor of Lucroy as it ranked as a top 10 hitters park for righties in 2015. I expect this whole Brewers team to get it going and for Lucroy to be right in the middle of it all.
Early Slate - Devin Mesoraco, Yadier Molina
FIRST BASE
Prince Fielder FD 3000 DK 4500
Opponent - HOU (Fister) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.55 DK - 9.88
Fielder is coming off a game where he finally turned it around and hit one onto the bleachers. After a slow power start, this has me completely comfortable in rostering Fielder. Doug Fister is a pitcher who struggled against lefties in 2015 with a .317 wOBA and 8 home runs in only 55 innings. Fielder has been very good against righties evidenced by his .392 wOBA in 2015. This is a great ballpark for lefties and Fielder has a great shot of getting another one out tonight.
Lucas Duda FD 2400 DK 4100
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @PHI
FD - 11.47 DK - 8.88
Lucas Duda is another player on fire with a home run in 2 straight games. I am expecting Duda to have another great game against a horrible right hander in Jeremy Hellickson. Hellickson has been atrocious against lefties with a 4.49 xFIP in 2015. Duda had a great year last year with a .354 wOBA, with his exit velocity and hard-hit rate suggesting he will improve on those numbers. I am more comfortable with Duda in tournaments as he is somewhat reliant on power.
Justin Smoak FD 2200 DK 3200
Opponent - BAL (Jimenez) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.84 DK - 8.46
Smoak is sitting at near minimum price around the industry. I am seriously interested in any hitter at minimum price in that lethal lineup, especially when they are hitting 6th or 7th. While Ubaldo Jimenez is not a pitcher I like to target, but he will almost certainly struggle against this Jays team. Smoak has hit righties pretty well with a .326 wOBA against righties in 2015. To add on, Smoak is a switch hitter which secures his spot on the lineup and guarantees he will not be pinch-hit for.
Early Slate - Anthony Rizzo, Joey Votto
SECOND BASE
Colin Walsh FD 2000 DK 2000
Opponent - MIN (Milone) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.06 DK - 7.92
This pick is contingent on Walsh hitting leadoff once again. As mentioned above, Milone has struggled against righties with a .331 wOBA. This Brewers team should be able to get to Milone and Walsh willbe right in the middle of it all.
Neil Walker FD 2800 DK 3800
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @PHI
FD - 10.47 DK - 8.27
Neil Walker has been on absolute fire lately with 5 home runs in 5 games. I am going to be targeting Hellickson like a mad man tonight with the Mets. Walker has hit righties very well with a .340 wOBA in 2015.I do take hot streaks into account in baseball, which adds to the appeal here. Hellickson has struggled keeping the ball in play with a 41% hard-hit rate in 2015. I am comfortable with Walker in all formats as he has a safe floor and ceiling.
Early Slate - Brandon Phillips, Kolten Wong
SHORTSTOP
Troy Tulowitzki FD 2900 DK 4000
Opponent - BAL (Jimenez) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.08 DK - 7.93
Tulo finally showed some power last night with a double and some deep flyouts. As mentioned above, I expect this Blue Jays lineup to get to Jimenez early and often. Jimenez gave up a .322 wOBA in 2015 and his peripherals suggest he will decline this year. Tulowitzki has not been great this year but I fully expect him to be just fine and turn it around very soon. I do prefer Tulo in tourney until he shows his upside.
Jonathan Villar FD 2700 DK 3000
Opponent - MIN (Milone) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.51 DK - 8.42
I am not going to go into why the Brew Crew are good plays. Milone has struggled against lefties nd the Brewers are good against lefties. Villar sported a .326 wOBA against righties last season and his age suggests he will improve. I am comfortable with Villar in both tournaments and cash games due to his price and upside.
Early Slate - Zack Cozart
THIRD BASE
David Wright FD 3000 DK 4100
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @PHI
FD - 10.26 DK - 8.15
David Wright is another Mets player that is very hot at the plate. For the 92nd time, Hellickson is a righty that has sttruggled and will struggle some more against both righties and lefties. As i'm sure you can tell, the New York Mets are my favorite team to stack on the slate tonight. Wright has hit righties over the course of his career with a .357 wOBA.
Alex Rodriguez FD 3000 DK 3800
Opponent - OAK (Graveman) Park - @NYY
FD - 10.02 DK - 7.81
Alex Rodriguez and the Yankees will be facing off with Kendall Graveman and the Athletics. Graveman is aright handed pitcher with reverse splits which means he is worse vs righties. Alex Rodriguez has always been a hitter that is better vs righties than lefties. This park is only going help as it ranked top 10 for right handed power in 2015. Rodriguez is more of a tournament play for me as wright is in a solid spot.
Early Slate - Matt Carpenter, Todd Frazier
OUTFIELD
Curtis Granderson FD 3100 DK 4200
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @PHI
FD - 11.76 DK - 9.17
Michael Conforto FD 2900 DK 3400
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @PHI
FD - 10.94 DK - 8.67
Shall I go into why the New York Mets are in such a great spot? I suppose you are tired of hearing about it, so I will hold back. However, both Conforto and Granderson are very good against righties. Both of these hitters have a 145 wRC+ against lefties and there is no reason not to have confidence in these guys. If I had to pick 1, I would go with Conforto as he has a but more power at this point.
Michael Saunders FD 2900 DK 3600
Opponent - BAL (Jimenez) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.22 DK - 9.59
Note - Adam Jones was listed here. He left the game last night and is questionable for tonight. If he is confirmed to be in, he is a terrific play.
Consider - Adam Jones(if he plays), Ryan Braun, Nomar Mazara, Matt Kemp
Early Slate - Jay Bruce, Dexter Fowler, Melky Cabrera
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Weather looking sketchy here in MO…. Not to far from St. Louis. But hey, it is MO!
Baseball is a total crapshoot. I appreciate the articles and picks, but there is just so much variance from night to night. It’s pretty easy to make an argument for or against just about every hitter and most pitchers.
True. Its so bad that I don’t think I will waste money on it anymore. I wish football season was here already…lol
This is definitely the case with MLB. Much different than NBA. Still a significant edge long term with our projections but I understand the frustrations. Liriano turns even in an average performance last night and FD is a full cash.
I agree with you Kelly
Baseball is hit or miss on Fanduel or even Draft Kings. I have tried multiple lineups and sometimes I strike it big or come up short. It;s difficult to tell which player is going to have a great game whether it be hitters or even pitchers. I have no luck and success during Football season than during Baseball season- 2 guys I always seem to plug in are Marcus Semien from Oakland and Alex Rodriguez and they have done okay for my lineup. I try to go with my gut as well as picks from this site. Sometimes I wonder if there is some kind of insider trading going on with Fanduel or even draft Kings some individuals seem to be really lucky or something else is going on. Just my opinion
Spelling errors lol I have more luck during Football season stupid computer- Everyone have an outstanding day and be safe.
Doug, why do you keep deleting my comments on here? There’s no communication. I emailed you all but never got a reply. Now, you delete my comments openly criticizing this website. If your MLB predictions weren’t complete and total garbage and you replied to my email, I wouldn’t have to make it a public conversation. I am a paying customer but not for much longer.
Hey David. Saw an email from you in our account but I responded to it on that day. I forwarded it so you can see the copy. Tend to trash emails that specifically call us a scam as that’s unfair accusation and appears more like trolling than actual discourse.
I too am a paying member and I too would delete negative comments. This is a forum for players to discuss games not bash the site. Have some tack and email that privately. I’m not the happiest at the moment, but I sure was 2 weeks ago pulling in 5 digits from the system. Nothing worse than cry babies from the night before being toxic during the new day’s forum.
DFS baseball is no different than any other DFS sport fellas…….it is all about putting the best players in the best matchups each night. In baseball, these are the things that Doug talks about in his articles – players splits, the ballpark, hot steaks and the list goes on. Sometimes it is easy to forget that these players are human and have bad days just like all of us.
If you continue to do your research and keep putting the players in your lineup with all the best match up potential, you will succeed. Hang in there – baseball is a long season. Just think, we are 3 weeks into a 6 month season. 🙂
I’m just offering my opinion, but David sounds like a petulant child. This site demonstrates which players have the best opportunity to succeed daily. That doesn’t guarantee that you can just plug in lineups and win a tournament every night. Pitching a fit on a forum that the majority of people appreciate just makes you look clueless. Their projections are well researched and meant to give you an edge. No one is forcing you to play them.
Love the Mets stack, but feel it will be the chalk tonight. Especially on DK where it pulled down the big tournament. Milwaukee stack maybe better for tournaments
No one is putting a gun to your head and forcing you to gamble, let alone use a service for gambling.
As a paying customer, I’m entitled to my opinion and I was criticizing the results being spit out by the tool. They’ve been off nearly every game and I almost exclusively play 50/50 games. I’m not looking to score 190 points every time I play. I did well with the tool during the regular NBA season. I know how to use it and the various conditions to consider. It’s just been completely inaccurate for MLB thus far. It’s not a personal attack on Doug. And thank you for replying to my email!
David. While short term results may not be what you are looking for we are confident in our system and believe it has the necessary inputs for successful predictive piece on MLB. While things haven’t always lined up (i.e. FD bats strong yesterday, Liriano sinks ship) over the long term we are 100% confident in what we’ve put together.
Also know that I play the exact lineups the system spits out and will run variations as such. This is to say, no one knows the results better than us.
These guys make great picks and great write ups – the projection system works well if you know how to filter things IE i try not to play guys with bad matchups or bad slumps just because they are projected to do well because – well – the projections are pre-determined and don’t take this into consideration – unless you are looking at value (after a guy’s price has adjusted down after a slump and it would be stupid not to play them – slump or not). I’ll be honest though, unless you know baseball, and have the $$$ to play multiple lineups, its very tough. Baseball is a different animal than NBA, NFL, etc.
Not true. This system is a benefit to the Joe Blow that knows nothing about sports. Use the optimal line up double up 5 or 10 bucks a day and Joe Blow will win. Since you are “almost exclusive” 50/50 guy. If you have used the system and play 50/50, how could you not be making bank?!
Went with Verret last night and did pretty well, wish I had gone with a full out Mets stack. I see Mesoraco is nursing his hip again–have to change all of my early slate LU’s.
In addition, just because the projection system says Trout will have 12 points, doesn’t mean he will even reach base. These are projections, not predictions, or black magic – though I’ll tell you, a few times last year I thought these guys had some sort of crystal ball lol.
I feel obligated to step in and voice my opinion as well. I too am a paying customer and I am a newbie to DFS baseball and I will say that this site and the optimizer tool has greatly helped me. I think you need to know how to use it effectively for it to actually work though. Again Im new so maybe I am wrong but I also try to use players from the tool as a basis on how to start my lineup and then always try to put my own touch into each lineup as well. Im not betting huge amounts of money but I have profited nearly $150 since the season began so as of now the investment has been successful and I will def be a long time customer. That being said, bashing the system and tools that are available is not the answer. I am sure they work better for some than they do for others. Best of luck to everyone today.
Thoughts on the Cubs-Cardinals game should we avoid it? Who are the top cash plays for early slate and what are you guys doing at catcher now?
Weather is still sketchy here in MO.
Thanks Cory. I think Im going to avoid that game. Based on weather.com it is saying the heaviest of the storms will be at around 2-3:30 which would be right at beginning/start of game. No thanks.
Who is everyones top cash plays for early slate?
I am a paying customer and have found this site extremely helpful. Bankroll has gone up exponentially and these comments from all you guys have been very beneficial.
Although not every pick will work, I have found that if I take 5-6 DFSR picks, go with your own research/gut feeling, and it is a lot easier to have positive results than picking my own 9 from other means. Also, I think we tend to forget that these players are human and screw up on their job every now and again like the rest of us. All the picks that DFSR I’m sure are backed up with historical data/analytics/etc and if a player does not perform like they normally would or what analytics suggest, then it becomes a bad pick. Just my worthless .02
Hey guys some of your salaries seem to be off on the mlb fan duel tool, any idea when this will be fixed?
Hey Marcus, who are you referring to specifically?
Thanks!
Nevermind. I see. Fixing now
I always use your advice so thanks. Quick question, cosart is out and im playing a little early slate..Any changes for the lineup picks? yesterday i scored 180 on fd because of you.
Hamilton a top play hitting leadoff for sure.
It has been a shitty baseball season thusfar, not by any fault of Doug and his guys. I am sure they are losing money as we are. So don’t fault the guy doing his homework and do some on your own. You guys killed it on NBA. MLB has higher volatility and variance, part of this game that i love.
St. Louis looking clear. Winds carried storm out until later in PM.
David Fishbein, James and Doug seem like awesome guys and they are very personable and they put their money where their mouths are. I’m on a terrible losing streak right now, and yes I question stuff here and there but it’s called taming a chance man. Please stop complaining because other people feed off of That. If u don’t like it just go somewhere else and then brag to us about how much u made with the “other guys” I’d like to hear how well u do. We are all human beings here
What about oak stack in Yankees josh reddick Vogt semien
i feel that batter vs pitcher is fairly important, and it is very important when it comes to facing a knuckleballer. Vs Dickey in career, Adam Jones is 3-25, weiters is 2-11. Another key one to note because he was in the article is Justin smoak. 1-20 with 10 k’s
Wow!! That makes me not roster all 3 of these guys
While I do agree with using BvP more with the knuckleball, I am not using it here. Most of these numbers noted above were in Toronto, where Dickey is much better. That is not the only thing. These numbers were also primarily back when Dickey was a Cy Young candidate.
Oak lineup just posted. Eovaldi isn’t a bad pitcher. But I will be rostering Vogt and will look very hard at Coghlan at his dirt cheap
Salaries batting in the 2nd spot. Both lefties.
Yea but if you look oak batter are killing eovaldi in his career
If you to pick a oak stack or Brewers stacks?
Good point Matthew see how we help people here? In cash I have Vogt so far may decide to add Coghlan later but I have a good lineup set with a couple mets and Machado one of the few that crushes the Dickster’s knuckler. Gpp burns Coghlan reddick and Vogt 3 lefties and a switch
Both Brewers and A’s stacks look good . I slightly prefer the Brewers
Watch weather in Milwaukee though
I believe Milwaukee’s ballpark has a retractable roof so weather shouldn’t be a factor there. Not 100% positive though.
Yes Shane thanks it does. That changes things. I like the Brewers here
I think Brewers a lot better becuase my favorite team Yankees and I don’t want to see oak to score runs
Ok Machado is too pricey. I like reddick for sure and I just realized that Norris is facing lefty Locke. He cranked one last night vs Liriano so I may take him. Walker for sure at 2nd also and j like comforto and fielder. Could spend up on Braun
As well
Shouldn’t think that way Matt lol Jays are fav team and I can’t deny that I think that way also. but u have to be willing to play hitters that are fared to do well against them. But u won’t be wrong going with the Brewers tonight.
A’s are unpredictable
I think this is an excellent website for daily fantasy advice. Sometimes players don’t live up to their expectations because they are human, everyone has a bad day. Don’t bash the site for trying to help you guys. All I hear is whining. If you wanted someone to tell you exactly who is going to work every time where would the strategy and excitement be. If you play daily fantasy for income maybe it’s time to get a job. As for me I play for fun and turn to this particular site to give me some advice, not make me a millionaire. Keep up the good work !
Truly appreciate all of the positive comments! Let’s win some cash tonight! any more questions or comments?
Austyn I am playing strictly 50/50 to try build a bankroll. I liking this lineup do u have any advice?
Bum Lucroy fielder walker villar Machado
Conforto coughlan and reddick.
Ready to rock on this one
Yep, I agree, great lineup.
I really like this lineup tonight but the pitchers worry me, what are your guys thoughts:
P: Nelson
P: Jimenez
C: Lucroy
1B: Chris Carter
2B: Altuve
3B: Beltre
SS: Machado
OF: Harper
OF: Cespedes
OF: Braun
I’d be very concerned about this pitching
I could go Pomeranz over either of them?
I love me some Jimmy Nelson in tournaments. However, I am not going to touch Jimenez. I would probably drop down off of Altuve or Harper and go to a Colon/Ross/Bumgarner.
And my DK one . I strictly want to cash nothing fancy.
Bum colon Lucroy fielder walker Machado
Villar Bautista Braun reddick.
This is for anyone to comment please. I see the system loves Altuve but not taking him. And Davis but I feel this to be safer .
Yeah I’m surprised it’s bullish on Altuve too against Hamels. I like this lineup. I’m splitting Pomeranz and Colon for me tonight in that SP2 slot
Thanks Doug I am now doing the same
Ryan I like your lineup. Bautista worries me as Jimenez has a great history against the Blue Jays but other than that I like it. What are your thoughts on mine for cash, it is posted above.
Doug, any way you can put the dome feature in the games section? I never knew Milwaukee had retractable
Until today
Yeah I have this out to Blake from our tech side. There is supposed to be a dome default but it’s not getting passed properly through.
I’m fading Harper tonight to be honest. His price on FD has gotten ridiculous. If you went cheaper there it would open up some pretty good options for improvement at P. Just a thought.
Thanks mike yes I’m gonna swap Bautista for another fielder. High salary guy. I have 5200 to spend. My opinions on yours. Remember this is just my opinion if u have a gut feeling go with it.
First is it cash or gpp??
Cash. Thats why Im worried about my pitchers. But I really like my bats.
Ya not a good cash lineup like but gpp yes
Definitely could win u a big tourney . Harper is not the wrong split which should keep his ownership low and carter
Is a boom or bust guy. Beltre will be low owned
I swapped cespedes for Bautista . Now it’s good to go I hope
Ya your pitchers aren’t great for cash games. Bum
Is almost impossible to fade IMO . Why not add colon or Pomeranz and then go much cheaper than Harper say reddick?
Then spend up a bit at first and down at second. Altuve vs hamels is scary at his price. I really like walker
Always look at the splits Michael. Who hits lefties well who hits righties well, some guys have reverse splits such as A Rod
Sorry Harper is in his wrong split I meant
Probably going to be a rough night but Im going with it. My gut likes it, which is usually bad. But Ill give it a shot. I feel guilty with not going with more of what the optimizer says though.
Good luck fellas!! Let’s get it!
As if getting burned my pitchers who don’t do well was bad enough and now tonight I lose Ross in the second inning because of a blister. Haha unfuckingreal.