Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

04/27/2016
Austyn Varney

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/27/16

 

Welcome to Wednesday baseball! Yesterday was a pretty fun day with David Price having a huge game and McCutchen homering three times. Today we have 1 early game and 14 later games on the main slate.

Now’s your chance to get DFSR Pro with MLB Optimal Lineups, Projections and Player Cards. Or try a free trial of our base package with projections for every player. While the seasons overlap, you'll get access to our tools for the NBA and NHL as well! Get started for free by clicking the button below.

First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebook on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.

A quick heads up - we post an updates article every day in the early afternoon, EST, to catch everyone up on how things are changing as a result of whatever news has come through. We also have great talks in the comments of that article. Hope to see you there!

We've also launched a Stats and Research Page, which includes a lot of the individual statistics that we use to make our projections. It's free! Enjoy.

 

PITCHER

Jake ArrietaJake Arrieta FD 12900 DK 13800
Opponent - MIL (Jungmann) Park - @CHC
FD - 44.92 DK - 25.15

Arrieta enters this game coming off a no-hitter where he made the Cincy Reds lineup look silly. There is absolutely no excuse not to roster Arrieta in your cash games tonight. The Brewers are going to end up being a team that struggles against righties as the majority of their good bats are righties in Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy and Chris Carter. Arrieta has held both righties and lefties to a 290- wOBA in 2015 and 2016. His peripherals lineup perfectly with his surface and actually suggest he will give up a few amount of home runs this season. I will have Arrieta in every single cash game tonight and the majority of my tournaments.

Matt HarveyMatt Harvey FD 9300 DK 10400
Opponent - CIN (Moscot) Park - @NYM
FD - 42.74 DK - 24.09

Matt Harvey is going to be my favorite GPP pivot off of Arrieta tonight. As mentioned above, the Reds lineup has the ability to be shut down as shown by Arrieta's no-hitter a week ago. Harvey has just as much upside as anyone as shown by his insane strikeout rate of 11+ over the course of his career. Another plus for Harvey tonight is the Mets being in a terrific spot for run support. Jon Moscot will have trouble containing the Mets and the win is almost certain. Make sure you have some exposure to Harvey in tournaments and cash games on 2 pitcher sites.

Gio GonzalezGio Gonzalez FD 9600 DK 9600
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @WSH
FD - 35.6 DK - 18.75

If you are looking for a safer option at pitcher that still has huge upside, Gio Gonzalez is your guy. Gonzalez has already pitched against these guys once this year and had a great outing with 7 innings and 8 strikeouts. Gio has always been a pitcher that has huge upside and now that Dusty Baker is the manager we can expect to see him stretched out a few extra pitches. the Phillies lineup is atrocious with guys like Ryan Howard, Cameron Rupp and the pitcher in there. Gio is a fine cash game and tournament play.

Consider - Matt Moore, Hisashi Iwakuma

DFSR 705x90

CATCHER

Miguel MonteroMiguel Montero FD 2500 DK 2900
Opponent - MIL (Jungmann) Park - @CHC
FD - 9.23 DK - 7.29

You can't be surprised to see Miguel Montero in here, can you? He is once again taking on a below average righty and will be hitting 6th. Until that changes, you are going to see him here nearly every day. Montero has been putting up good numbers this year and that won't change if he stays in the lineup. However, Montero was scratched last night with back stiffness. Make sure you keep an eye on his status throughout the day. I will update here if anything is confirmed.

Russell MartinRussell Martin FD 2500 DK 3500
Opponent - CHW (Quintana) Park - @TOR
FD - 8.63 DK - 6.71

Russell Martin is expected to return to the lineup tonight after a couple days off with a sore back. A sore back doesn't concern me too much as it is very common for catchers to take a few days off from the heavy labor. While Jose Quintana isn't a horrible lefty, the Blue Jays turn every lefty into bad pitchers. Martin will likely be hitting right after the middle of the lineup and will have great RBI opportunities. I look for Martin to have a good game tonight and is a safe play for cash games.

Consider - Stephen Vogt

 

FIRST BASE

Mark TeixeiraMark Teixeira FD 3300 DK 4100
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.78 DK - 9.12

Teixeira and the Yankees will be taking on a weak lefty in Martin Perez tonight. Perez gave up a .336 wOBA to righties last year and his peripheral stats suggest he may only get worse. Mark Teixeira on the other hand, has hit lefties better than righties and in 2015 hit them to the tune of a .347 wOBA. The Yankees are in a great ballpark in Arlington as it ranked top 10 for hitters. I expect the Yankees to have a great game against Perez and for Teixeira to be a big part of it.

David OrtizDavid Ortiz FD 3500 DK 4600
Opponent - ATL (Norris) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.23 DK - 9.61

The seeming never again David Ortiz is one again having a great season albeit his increasing age. Ortiz has already showed he is still capable of producing with 3 homers on the young year. Bud Norris was horrible against lefties in 2015 with a .379 wOBA and he has not showed any sign of improvement this season. I look for Ortiz to get a hold of one and send it over the right field short porch. I prefer Ortiz in tournaments as he is a bit power reliant at this point.

Consider - John Jaso, Freddie Freeman, Adam Lind

 

SECOND BASE

Jason KipnisJason Kipnis FD 3300 DK 4100
Opponent - MIN (Berrios) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.22 DK - 8.18

Kipnis has 6 hits in his last 4 games and is seeing the ball very well. Jose Berrios is a huge prospect and while that does scare me, how often does a rookie come in and dominate in his debut. Berrios did struggle a bit against lefties and Kipnis hit righties to a .389 wOBA clip in 2015. I look for Berrios to struggle a bit in his debut and Kipnis should be able to capitalize on the jitters.

Josh HarrisonJosh Harrison FD 3900 DK 4500
Opponent - COL (Gray) Park - @COL
FD - 11.78 DK - 9.58

You will never find me rostering Josh Harrison at $3,900 and $4,500 out of Coors Field. However, the Pirates are in Coors Field, the park that turned Wilin Rosario into Babe Ruth. Harrison had a decent game last night and will look to carry that over into tonight. Harrison hit righties just fine last year with a.306 wOBA in a pitchers ballpark. With second base being a weak position tonight, Josh Harrison gives you some exposure to Coors Field and a game with an 11 over/under.

Consider - Ben Zobrist, D.J. LeMahieu
 

SHORTSTOP

Trevor StoryTrevor Story FD 4200 DK 5300
Opponent - PIT (Niese) Park - @COL
FD - 13.09 DK - 10.43''

Trevor Story has cooled down considerably since the beginning of the season, predictably. While he may not Roger Maris, he is still a very sold hitter against lefties that will have a solid season. Jon Niese is not a good pitcher and has given it up to righties over the past couple years. In 2015, Niese gave up a .330 wOBA and 16 home runs to righties. Story has a ton of upside in this lineup and is protected well with Cargo and Arenado behind him.

Jimmy RollinsJimmy Rollins FD 2800 DK 3400
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @TOR
FD - 9.6 DK - 7.67

Jimmy Rollins was in the picks article yesterday and came through with a good game. The White Sox are in another good spot here against the extreme flyball pitcher Marco Estrada. Estrada is one of the worst pitchers in the league at giving up homers and the White Sox have plenty of guys with the potential to hit it out, including Rollins. Rollins hit righties to a .325 wOBA over the course of his career and hit 11 of his 14 home runs off of them last year.

Consider - Brad Miller, Jedd Gyorko
 

THIRD BASE

Adrian BeltreAdrian Beltre FD 3300 DK 4600
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.92 DK - 9.53

Beltre at home against a weak lefty who gives up a ton of home runs? Sign me up. Beltre has been a notorious lefty crusher over his career with a .376 wOBA and .516 SLG. C.C. Sabathia is a horrible pitcher at this point n his career and struggles immensely against righties as evidenced by his .370 wOBA and 1.76 HR/9 rate. Beltre is in an amazing spot tonight and is my favorite 3rd baseman for sure. The Rangers are going to get to Sabathia tonight and Beltre will be right in the middle of it.

Kyle SeagerKyle Seager FD 3200 DK 3500
Opponent - HOU (McHugh) Park - @SEA
FD - 10.26 DK - 8.12

Kyle Seager has been seeing the ball pretty well lately with a high hard-hit rate and low soft contact rate to start the year. He will be facing off with an average right hander tonight in Collin McHugh who tends to struggles against lefties. In 2015, Seager hit righties pretty well with a .322 wOBA and his BABIP suggested it should of been closer to .344. I expect Seager to have a big year this year and this is a great chance for him to perform.

Consider - Alex Rodriguez, David Wright
 

OUTFIELD

Bryce HarperBryce Harper FD 5700 DK 5500
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @WSH
FD - 13.75 DK - 10.72

There is no reason to get too deep into this one. Harper is on pace to have one of the best seasons ever and has been doing his damage against primarily righties. In 2015 and 2016, Harper has held an absolutely ridiculous .478 wOBA against righties. The thing is, it just may be sustainable. Jeremy Hellickson has been atrocious against lefties and Harper has a great shot at hitting one out tonight. Harper is a great play in both cash games and tournaments.

Trayce ThompsonTrayce Thompson FD 2300 DK 2900
Opponent - MIA (Nicolino) Park - @LAD
FD - 9.91 DK - 7.86
Enrique HernandezEnrique Hernandez FD 2700 DK 4000
Opponent - MIA (Nicolino) Park - @LAD
FD - 11.1 DK - 8.92
Yasiel PuigYasiel Puig FD 3500 DK 3800
Opponent - MIA (Nicolino) Park - @LAD
FD - 12.08 DK - 9.56

We have all 3 of the Dodgers outfielders as terrific plays tonight. This threesome of Dodgers outfielders is absolutely outstanding against lefties and it certainly doesn't look like they will slow down at all. Let's take a look at these guys wOBA's against lefties. We have Yasiel Puig at .393, Enrique Hernandez at .476 and Trayce Thompson at .419. While the last two may not be sustainable, they have certainly proved how good they are against lefties. Justin Nicolino does not have too much of a sample size but he has struggled against righties with a.327 wOBA.

Delino Deshields Jr.Delino Deshields Jr. FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.26 DK - 9.84

Delino Deshields has hit lefties very well with a .334 wOBA and 106 wRC+. Sabathia on the other hand, was absolutely horrible against righties last year with a 4.31 xFIP and 1.72 HR/9. This ballpark in Arlington is great for Deshields as it ranked top 10 for righty power in 2015. Deshields is one of my favorite players to roster in the league as he gives you power upside and speed upside.

Curtis GrandersonCurtis Granderson FD 3600 DK 4500
Opponent - CIN (Moscot) Park - @NYM
FD - 12.03 DK - 9.38

Curtis Granderson and the New York Mets are in a terrific spot tonight against a weak right handed pitcher in Jon Moscot. While Moscot has a very small sample size of production, he has been absolutely horrible and his minor league numbers don't suggest anything will change anytime soon. In 2015, Granderson hit lefties to the tune of a .384 wOBA against righties. I expect the Mets to get to Moscot and for Granderson to be the beginning of it all.

Consider - Jason Heyward, Miguel Sano, Aaron Hicks, Ryan Rua, Ryan Raburn, Coors outfielders

So yeah, baseball season! And we've got some goodies you can take with you. At the end of the post, we have our MLB eBook that you really ought to check out before setting even a single daily fantasy MLB lineup. It's free, below.

GRAB A FREE TRIAL OF OUR PROJECTION SYSTEM, AND CHECK OUT DFSR PRO!

GET OUR FREE EBOOK ON DAILY FANTASY MLB!

And Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings every day!

72 Visitor Comments

  1. For all the BVP fans out there, Kyle Seager is just 1-20 lifetime with ZERO walks against Collin McHugh. Just sayin.

    • An extreme b vs p like that yes that’s huge
      No seager today for me

    • Too small a sample imho. BvP is always just too small of a sample really. I understand why people like it as a quick reference, but it’s not something we account for.

      • Bullshit, BvP is a really great way to see how a guy handles a pitcher, if he had only 3 at bats, I’d tend to agree the sample size is too small. But 20 AB’s is a great sample size. I use BvP religiously, as it’s a great tool to predict the future…. Using the past lol

        • Cool. Disagree but that’s why I love the comments here. Opens up a lot for discussion. We see sample sizes quite differently. For me it needs to get in the 300-400 PA range until I really start to trust something and even there are so many factors at play like BABIP, HR/FB, park breakdown etc that can wreak havoc with expectancies. Will never get there in BVP data which is why I tend not to trust it.

  2. Thanks for the post Austyn, I enjoy your articles. Plus they help me stay afloat in DFS with the hope to one day hit a lucky one!

  3. Can you play too many 50/50’s (changing lineups?) I Played 12 50/50’s last night… went 10-2 and made a little over $5 ($1 games) and 1 $2 game, which of course i lost.

    • Ray u may as well play gpp s with that many lineups. I play 1-2 cash lineups every day

    • In MLB I actually think this is fine. Greatly reduces variance for sure, though will make your margins smaller. On certain nights I’ll take a similar strategy entering all 12 in cash and GPP alike to cover the upside if they hit.

      Last night though (optimal lineups crushed) I only ran 2 lineups per site. This was mostly because I just liked the diversity between the top two lineups and thought it covered most of the narratives.

      • Ya that’s fine if it’s just changing one or two guys though right? I thought he means like an entirely different lineup

    • Playing 1 or multiple lineups in cash depends on you. Doug usually plays multiple and I play 1 neither is right or wrong. I found last year playing 1 worked better for me. I entered 36 tourneys last night across 3 different slates and cashed all but 3 which were on cut line using 1 lineup in each. Basically you need to find out what works for you

  4. Optimizer crushed it last night! Thank you.

    • YESSIR!

    • It was a very good night. I actually fell asleep early and woke up to the Cueto CGSO which was a nice way to start the day.

  5. It does get rather exhausting having to adjust 12 lineups, takes me about 1.5 hours before game time to make sure it’s all perfect. For what $5? lol

    I noticed on a lot of the 50/50s the people who play 10-20 lineups play the same lineup for all contests. I verified this by checking their lineup on each contest they joined. Might try that tonight.

  6. Looks like there’s supposed to be heavy rain for the Cubs, Nats, and Twins game.. Less so on the Twins game. I’d keep an eye on that if you decide to go with Arrieta or Gio or any players from those teams.

    • I just did a weather check and it looks like there is a 75-80% chance of rain/storms in Chicago tonight so I think I’m going to stay away from Arrieta and the Cubs (unfortunately). DC looks a little better so I think they should be able to get the Nats/Phillies game in.

  7. Looking to go a bit cheaper route on Pitcher today and try to grab a “low owned gem”. Thoughts on Steven Wright vs Atl anyone?

  8. Austin,
    You have a typo in the write up on McCutchen, he actually homered 3 times.

    • The make the write during the games. At that point he had probably hit #2. What a day for him! Had him in all line ups!

  9. Doug, the optimizer doesn’t include the 3:45 game.
    Thanks

  10. Chris young (the pitcher) is listed as an OF in the Optimizer.

    • Sure you’re not seeing Chris Young the OF who plays for Boston

      • John, it has been fixed. Thanks.

      • Sorry Chris Young is a multiple name match thing. I thought I had the IDs mapped correctly but it appears something was wrong. I’ve corrected.

  11. Yeah i think wright will be heavily owned today. I mean honestly who else are you going to pair with arrieta or gio?

  12. his walk rate scares me though, and isn’t atlanta due to breakout?

    • Have you seen the lineup Atlanta rolls out there every night. Not saying they’re not due for breakout but that lineup is not good

    • Not sure how much it helps but will have benefit of DH tonight though

      • Wind blowing towards the monster moderately also. We may not have much of a choice if there’s rainouts in Chicago
        And Washington

        • Definitely blowing out towards monster but unless it’s supposed to pick up a little it’s closer to calm than 15 mph I’m seeing on sites

  13. Anyone know the status on Holiday? I love his matchup vs Corbin but I know he sat out yesterday with a leg injury.

  14. Thoughts on this..
    P Wright with stacks of…
    Bos: Pedroia, Ortiz, Bogaerts
    Stl: Molina, Grichuk, Holliday
    Mets: Wright, Conforto

    I do have some salary remaining, so any improvements?

    • Tough to have thoughts on any lineups at 11 AM when no lineups are released.

  15. wainewright seems like someone to attack. with castillo and goldschimit?

  16. Visiting leadoff hitter at Coors for 3600 with good contact and OBP almost seems like a must play

  17. John do you think Jose berrios lights it up tonight in his debut? I’m super tempted to roll with him before everyone realizes how good he is also thoughts on Marco Estrada today? Thanks

    • The thing with berrios is will Twins treat him with kid gloves. Between hype and price think he’ll be fairly owned as SP2 on DK but other than gpp flier I probably won’t have him. Estrada issue has always been the HR and has only given up 1 so far. Does that mean he starts to revert today not sure but he’s been solid so far

      • Yeah I can’t imagine even in the best scenario that they run Berrios out there for maximum pitch count.

  18. DeShields has power upside?

  19. Scored 210 last night in the FD 20K Sac and only pulled down 5 dollars. This MLB scoring is crazy. Thought I was heading for the promised land the way McC was hitting and Price was pitching.

    • Yeah MLB GPP wins require every single thing to go right. And while Price and McCutch weren’t universal plays, they were pretty chalky.

  20. DeShields has power upside for sure maybe not a ton but he’s gonna get you a homer here and there….plus almost anyone has power upside against CC these days he’s well past his prime

  21. Matt Harvey is no Jake Arrieta…. At least not yet this year anyway.

    • This is true, but they aren’t priced the same either.

  22. Jake Arrieta was no Jake Arrieta til couple years ago. Thing about Harvey was his fastball was couple mph down 1st few starts like a lot of pitchers early or weather related but with his previous TJ there some slight concern. His fastball had life last start so hopefully that means he was just getting arm strength back

  23. If McCutchen’s day doesn’t show you the type of impact Coors has on hitters, or how far Freese hit was not being a good hitter, then I don’t know what will. McCutchen had looked nothing short of terrible this season until his first game in Coors this yr.

    ^^^
    Harvey will never be anything semi close to what Arrieta is. Maybe pre injury Harvey had a shot, but not post injury. Dudes an average pitcher now.

    • Not saying he will be think he’s overrated and still over hyped but Arrieta was below average until something clicked couple years ago

      • And at 27 Harvey still has chance to become what he was pre injury

  24. Mets or Red Sox stack which will do more damage? And any other stack are better

  25. Wainwright at 7900 isn’t that a good value play?

    • Wainwright has more BB than K’s right now with 9 K’s in 22.7 innings nothing more than tournament play until you start seeing something from him

    • Personally I think there are lingering effects from his injury. He doesn’t seem right and the peripherals really back this up. System having a hard time sussing this out, but I’m concerned.

  26. Matthew. I like the Sox stack. I did them with a Pittsburgh stack tonight and went cheap on Pitcher

  27. Lineup construction will be so much easier if Joyce gets start for marte and bats cleanup today

      • Just a hunch if he’s in he’ll bat cleanup and polanco gets bump batting leadoff

  28. Optimizer keeps going with Story.I am not feeling
    his price

  29. Cards and Arizona looks like a nice match up,but
    do we think it is a bad play with ground ball pitchers

    • With a O/U at 9 Vegas doesn’t seem concerned but wouldn’t be surprised if there was a 2-1 game with these pitchers performance in past.

  30. I am rolling out with this lineup tonight- TOR-Estrada-P
    ARZ- Castillo
    BOS- Ortiz
    BOS- Pedroia
    TEX- Beltre
    TAM- Miller
    TEX- Desheilds
    NYM- Conforto
    NYM- Granderson

    Had a great night on Fanduel last night so I hope to keep it up- this lineup could be boom or bust

  31. I have a bad feeling about Harvey for cash games. Weather cleared up in Washington. Chicago looks nasty for weather so arrieta no go for me. Is going with gio a decent play

  32. Need a solid catcher 2600 and lower. All 3 listed here are not playing today.

  33. May be a good catcher punt night. I’m considering Plawecki at 2000. I hate that he’s batting 8th but he should get his share of big point opportunities vs Moscot

    • I prefer Holaday

  34. Ryan know more when lineups come out but definitely a direction I’m leaning maybe not a pure punt like plawecki but a place I’m looking to save

  35. Yes good point John . De Aza looks good at leadoff for mets also.
    3100 dk 2000 FD . I’m locking him in on FD

  36. I went with Lobaton for Washington as he will be in the lineup batting 8. I think it’s going to be a solid play vs Hellickson from Philly. I don’t expect a 30pt game out of him. But it’s possible. He put up #s like that a few games back vs Minnesota. I am keeping the mindset anything over 10pts with him will be a bonus.

  37. Starting to get word that the Cubs-Brewers game is very very iffy at this point. With that said do you take someone higher priced like Gio in cash and a cheap pitcher or do you take two cheap pitchers with upside and load up on bats for cash games tonight?

  38. Jose Barrios is a good alternative to Wright in the same price range on DK. (Fanduel doesn’t list Barrios.) I’m playing them both.

  39. Ryan Hanigan’s your catcher.

  40. Thoughts?

    P Gio González P
    Phi@Was $9,600 swap out
    P Justin Verlander P
    Oak@Det $8,600 swap out
    C F. Cervelli Pit@Col $3,800 swap out
    1B Mark Teixeira NYY@Tex $4,100 swap out
    2B Jedd Gyorko StL@Ari $3,200 swap out
    3B Adrián Béltre NYY@Tex $4,600 swap out
    SS Jimmy Rollins CWS@Tor $3,400 swap out
    OF Delino DeShields NYY@Tex $3,700 swap out
    OF Bryce Harper Phi@Was $5,500 swap out
    OF Kiké Hernández Mia@LAD $3,100 swap out

Post a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

 

FREE EBOOK

SECRETS TO CRUSHING DAILY FANTASY FOOTBALL!
DON'T SET ANOTHER LINEUP BEFORE YOU READ THIS BOOK.



DOWNLOAD YOUR EBOOK NOW

Our free NBA and MLB eBooks, and picks to your inbox every day!

Your eBooks are on their way!