Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/27/16
Welcome to Wednesday baseball! Yesterday was a pretty fun day with David Price having a huge game and McCutchen homering three times. Today we have 1 early game and 14 later games on the main slate.
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Arrieta enters this game coming off a no-hitter where he made the Cincy Reds lineup look silly. There is absolutely no excuse not to roster Arrieta in your cash games tonight. The Brewers are going to end up being a team that struggles against righties as the majority of their good bats are righties in Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy and Chris Carter. Arrieta has held both righties and lefties to a 290- wOBA in 2015 and 2016. His peripherals lineup perfectly with his surface and actually suggest he will give up a few amount of home runs this season. I will have Arrieta in every single cash game tonight and the majority of my tournaments.
Matt Harvey is going to be my favorite GPP pivot off of Arrieta tonight. As mentioned above, the Reds lineup has the ability to be shut down as shown by Arrieta's no-hitter a week ago. Harvey has just as much upside as anyone as shown by his insane strikeout rate of 11+ over the course of his career. Another plus for Harvey tonight is the Mets being in a terrific spot for run support. Jon Moscot will have trouble containing the Mets and the win is almost certain. Make sure you have some exposure to Harvey in tournaments and cash games on 2 pitcher sites.
If you are looking for a safer option at pitcher that still has huge upside, Gio Gonzalez is your guy. Gonzalez has already pitched against these guys once this year and had a great outing with 7 innings and 8 strikeouts. Gio has always been a pitcher that has huge upside and now that Dusty Baker is the manager we can expect to see him stretched out a few extra pitches. the Phillies lineup is atrocious with guys like Ryan Howard, Cameron Rupp and the pitcher in there. Gio is a fine cash game and tournament play.
Consider - Matt Moore, Hisashi Iwakuma
Miguel Montero FD 2500 DK 2900
Opponent - MIL (Jungmann) Park - @CHC
FD - 9.23 DK - 7.29
You can't be surprised to see Miguel Montero in here, can you? He is once again taking on a below average righty and will be hitting 6th. Until that changes, you are going to see him here nearly every day. Montero has been putting up good numbers this year and that won't change if he stays in the lineup. However, Montero was scratched last night with back stiffness. Make sure you keep an eye on his status throughout the day. I will update here if anything is confirmed.
Russell Martin FD 2500 DK 3500
Opponent - CHW (Quintana) Park - @TOR
FD - 8.63 DK - 6.71
Russell Martin is expected to return to the lineup tonight after a couple days off with a sore back. A sore back doesn't concern me too much as it is very common for catchers to take a few days off from the heavy labor. While Jose Quintana isn't a horrible lefty, the Blue Jays turn every lefty into bad pitchers. Martin will likely be hitting right after the middle of the lineup and will have great RBI opportunities. I look for Martin to have a good game tonight and is a safe play for cash games.
Consider - Stephen Vogt
Mark Teixeira FD 3300 DK 4100
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.78 DK - 9.12
Teixeira and the Yankees will be taking on a weak lefty in Martin Perez tonight. Perez gave up a .336 wOBA to righties last year and his peripheral stats suggest he may only get worse. Mark Teixeira on the other hand, has hit lefties better than righties and in 2015 hit them to the tune of a .347 wOBA. The Yankees are in a great ballpark in Arlington as it ranked top 10 for hitters. I expect the Yankees to have a great game against Perez and for Teixeira to be a big part of it.
David Ortiz FD 3500 DK 4600
Opponent - ATL (Norris) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.23 DK - 9.61
The seeming never again David Ortiz is one again having a great season albeit his increasing age. Ortiz has already showed he is still capable of producing with 3 homers on the young year. Bud Norris was horrible against lefties in 2015 with a .379 wOBA and he has not showed any sign of improvement this season. I look for Ortiz to get a hold of one and send it over the right field short porch. I prefer Ortiz in tournaments as he is a bit power reliant at this point.
Consider - John Jaso, Freddie Freeman, Adam Lind
Jason Kipnis FD 3300 DK 4100
Opponent - MIN (Berrios) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.22 DK - 8.18
Kipnis has 6 hits in his last 4 games and is seeing the ball very well. Jose Berrios is a huge prospect and while that does scare me, how often does a rookie come in and dominate in his debut. Berrios did struggle a bit against lefties and Kipnis hit righties to a .389 wOBA clip in 2015. I look for Berrios to struggle a bit in his debut and Kipnis should be able to capitalize on the jitters.
Josh Harrison FD 3900 DK 4500
Opponent - COL (Gray) Park - @COL
FD - 11.78 DK - 9.58
You will never find me rostering Josh Harrison at $3,900 and $4,500 out of Coors Field. However, the Pirates are in Coors Field, the park that turned Wilin Rosario into Babe Ruth. Harrison had a decent game last night and will look to carry that over into tonight. Harrison hit righties just fine last year with a.306 wOBA in a pitchers ballpark. With second base being a weak position tonight, Josh Harrison gives you some exposure to Coors Field and a game with an 11 over/under.
Consider - Ben Zobrist, D.J. LeMahieu
Trevor Story FD 4200 DK 5300
Opponent - PIT (Niese) Park - @COL
FD - 13.09 DK - 10.43''
Trevor Story has cooled down considerably since the beginning of the season, predictably. While he may not Roger Maris, he is still a very sold hitter against lefties that will have a solid season. Jon Niese is not a good pitcher and has given it up to righties over the past couple years. In 2015, Niese gave up a .330 wOBA and 16 home runs to righties. Story has a ton of upside in this lineup and is protected well with Cargo and Arenado behind him.
Jimmy Rollins FD 2800 DK 3400
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @TOR
FD - 9.6 DK - 7.67
Jimmy Rollins was in the picks article yesterday and came through with a good game. The White Sox are in another good spot here against the extreme flyball pitcher Marco Estrada. Estrada is one of the worst pitchers in the league at giving up homers and the White Sox have plenty of guys with the potential to hit it out, including Rollins. Rollins hit righties to a .325 wOBA over the course of his career and hit 11 of his 14 home runs off of them last year.
Consider - Brad Miller, Jedd Gyorko
Adrian Beltre FD 3300 DK 4600
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.92 DK - 9.53
Beltre at home against a weak lefty who gives up a ton of home runs? Sign me up. Beltre has been a notorious lefty crusher over his career with a .376 wOBA and .516 SLG. C.C. Sabathia is a horrible pitcher at this point n his career and struggles immensely against righties as evidenced by his .370 wOBA and 1.76 HR/9 rate. Beltre is in an amazing spot tonight and is my favorite 3rd baseman for sure. The Rangers are going to get to Sabathia tonight and Beltre will be right in the middle of it.
Kyle Seager FD 3200 DK 3500
Opponent - HOU (McHugh) Park - @SEA
FD - 10.26 DK - 8.12
Kyle Seager has been seeing the ball pretty well lately with a high hard-hit rate and low soft contact rate to start the year. He will be facing off with an average right hander tonight in Collin McHugh who tends to struggles against lefties. In 2015, Seager hit righties pretty well with a .322 wOBA and his BABIP suggested it should of been closer to .344. I expect Seager to have a big year this year and this is a great chance for him to perform.
Consider - Alex Rodriguez, David Wright
Bryce Harper FD 5700 DK 5500
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @WSH
FD - 13.75 DK - 10.72
There is no reason to get too deep into this one. Harper is on pace to have one of the best seasons ever and has been doing his damage against primarily righties. In 2015 and 2016, Harper has held an absolutely ridiculous .478 wOBA against righties. The thing is, it just may be sustainable. Jeremy Hellickson has been atrocious against lefties and Harper has a great shot at hitting one out tonight. Harper is a great play in both cash games and tournaments.
Trayce Thompson FD 2300 DK 2900
Opponent - MIA (Nicolino) Park - @LAD
FD - 9.91 DK - 7.86
Enrique Hernandez FD 2700 DK 4000
Opponent - MIA (Nicolino) Park - @LAD
FD - 11.1 DK - 8.92
Yasiel Puig FD 3500 DK 3800
Opponent - MIA (Nicolino) Park - @LAD
FD - 12.08 DK - 9.56
We have all 3 of the Dodgers outfielders as terrific plays tonight. This threesome of Dodgers outfielders is absolutely outstanding against lefties and it certainly doesn't look like they will slow down at all. Let's take a look at these guys wOBA's against lefties. We have Yasiel Puig at .393, Enrique Hernandez at .476 and Trayce Thompson at .419. While the last two may not be sustainable, they have certainly proved how good they are against lefties. Justin Nicolino does not have too much of a sample size but he has struggled against righties with a.327 wOBA.
Delino Deshields Jr. FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.26 DK - 9.84
Delino Deshields has hit lefties very well with a .334 wOBA and 106 wRC+. Sabathia on the other hand, was absolutely horrible against righties last year with a 4.31 xFIP and 1.72 HR/9. This ballpark in Arlington is great for Deshields as it ranked top 10 for righty power in 2015. Deshields is one of my favorite players to roster in the league as he gives you power upside and speed upside.
Curtis Granderson FD 3600 DK 4500
Opponent - CIN (Moscot) Park - @NYM
FD - 12.03 DK - 9.38
Curtis Granderson and the New York Mets are in a terrific spot tonight against a weak right handed pitcher in Jon Moscot. While Moscot has a very small sample size of production, he has been absolutely horrible and his minor league numbers don't suggest anything will change anytime soon. In 2015, Granderson hit lefties to the tune of a .384 wOBA against righties. I expect the Mets to get to Moscot and for Granderson to be the beginning of it all.
Consider - Jason Heyward, Miguel Sano, Aaron Hicks, Ryan Rua, Ryan Raburn, Coors outfielders
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