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Daily Fantasy Baseball News and Updates for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/28/16
Welcome to the daily MLB updates and news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!
Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock today.
By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the batting lineup changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!
What We Know
All the bad weather!!!
We have 8 games on the entire day with 5 of those having weather concerns. In the early slate, all 4 games have weather concerns. As of now, the Phillies @ Nationals game is looking the worse. I will update this 1 hour before early lock with the current weather and how I am attacking it.
Jake Arrieta is pitching
The Chicago Cubs have confirmed that Jake Arrieta will be starting on Thursday instead of Jon Lester. While I'm sure Maddon would love to let Arrieta skip a start for health purposes, the Cubs bullpen is not rested and Maddon will need his ace out their to eat up some innings. Arrieta is a pitcher I will be targeting in every format as long as the weather allows me.
Tournament Stacks
NOTE - The Rockies and Pirates do not need to be listed here as anyone in Coors Field is a great tournament stack.
Philadelphia Phillies
I am a fan of Roark today and a fan of stacking the Phillies in tournaments. Baseball. Weird. Sure, Roark is a talented pitcher who is on the up and up and looks to be making a name for himself in the rotation. However, let's take a look at something real quick. Pitch count. Roark has primarily been a bullpen arm throughout his career and when he has started, has usually stuck around 90 pitches. In last week's outstanding performance, Roark threw an outlandish 121 pitches. There is a serious risk that Roark comes out here with a tired arm and his velocity is down a few MPH. If that happens, the Phillies could be in for a huge day against Roark and the bullpen. My favorite part of this stack is it let's you pay up for Jake Arrieta easily. With the best bats in this lineup being close to the minimum on most sites, you are able to pay up for pitcher and a couple bats. While the Phillies could certainly get shut down like normal, they have a chance to take advantage of a pitcher that could possibly be worn out.
St. Louis Cardinals
While Chase Field is no Coors Field, it is pretty darn close. Chase Field was the number 2 park overall last season for hitters. The Cardinals will be going from the 21st hitters park to the 2nd. Rubby De La Rosa was absolutely atrocious last season against lefties with 20 home runs and a .404 wOBA given up. You will not find many pitchers with worse numbers than those. While the Cardinals do not have a ton of lefty bats, the lefties they do have can hit. Matt Carpenter, Jeremy Hazelbaker, Brandon Moss and Kolten Wong are certainly my favorite and I would throw in Matt Holliday and Stephen Piscotty in there as well with hopes that they will get some damage done once the bullpen comes in. With so many weather concerns on the day, it feels good to be able to load these guys up with no worry of weather.
Sneaky Pitcher
Clay Buchholz FD 9100 DK 8000
Opponent - ATL (Chacin) Park - @BOS
FD - 37.53 DK - 19.97
While Kenta Maeda and Jose Fernandez are the obvious guys to target in cash games, Buchholz has some upside here. The Red Sox enter this game at -194 favorite in a game with an 8 1/2 over under. This puts the Braves at low scoring projection of 3.5 runs. The Red Sox lineup has been swinging the bat lately and should certainly be able to put up some run support against Jhoulys Chacin. In 2015, Buchholz held both righties and lefties to a combined wOBA of .290. The Braves lineup is far from frightening with only 1 good bat in Freddie Freeman. Buchholz has shown some strikeout in the past with games over 10 strikeouts. Buchholz is a great tournament play if everything lines up.
The "Every Lineup" Guys
Carlos Gonzalez FD 3900 DK 5100
Opponent - PIT (Nicasio) Park - @COL
FD - 15.19 DK - 11.65
Gerardo Parra FD 3500 DK 4200
Opponent - PIT (Nicasio) Park - @COL
FD - 12.98 DK - 10.55
Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra will be taking on Juan Nicasio in Coors Field. While Nicasio is making a name for himself after being a horrible pitcher for so many years, he is still below average. Nicasio has been horrible at Coors Field over the course of his career with a wOBA over .400 against both righties and lefties. CarGo and Parra on the other hand, have destroyed righties as evidenced by their 2015 wOBA's of .415 and .345 with Parra holding the ladder. I look for the Rockies to get to Nicasio early and often and these two guys should be a huge part of it.
Manny Machado FD 4300 DK 4600
Opponent - CHW (Danks) Park - @BAL
FD - 14.35 DK - 11.43
John Danks is consistently one of my favorite pitchers to pick and I could of put a number of Orioles here. However, I went with the best righty in the lineup and that is Manny Machado. In 2015 at age 22, Machado hit lefties at a .330 wOBA. Every peripheral statistic as well as his age are pointing to improvement and that will only add to the already great hitter. John Danks gave up 16 homers and a .353 wOBA to right in 2015 and the same could not be said for his peripherals. I look for the Orioles to get to Danks and Machado is my favorite of many.
One other note: There are big differences between DraftKings and FanDuel pricing so the optimal lineups are looking quite different.
These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.
Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!
image sources
- A.J. Ellis, Carlos Gonzalez: (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
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weather seems to be the most important factor today for the early slates. above matchups
Could be rain issues in every single early game which is nuts.
Are projections on Hazelbaker in optimizer correct? Doesn’t seem to remotely reflect your write ups from last night and today
Apologies. We had some leftover batting lineup data coming in from yesterday. I’ve fixed and it should be reflective of him projecting to hit leadoff.
No worries, makes much more sense now. In optimizer I trust!
Awesome. I went to bed so excited for this early slate of games but the weather has me bummed.
Weird, the article says that Arrieta is the pitcher to target and Roark could have a tired arm. But the optimizer recommends Roark and not Arrieta? I don’t get it.
Does anyone think the Nats game will be postponed or does it have a chance of starting later in the day?
I have withdrew all of my early slate entries because of weather. Bummer. One thing I have learned though…You don’t have to play every day in DFS. Being a mostly cash player, the weather makes for more tournament gambles that I am not too comfortable with. Good luck to those braving the Weather this morning.
Another 5 dollar cash in a GPP last night. Woulda been more, but missed the news about the rainout. Anyway, looks like today is more of the same and its going to be a very boring DFS day if these games are postponed as well.
Nobody laugh this is a serious question out of Bassitt and Nacasio does either one of them have a chance to provide ANY fantasy points today? Having a difficult time putting together a lineup on DK early slate without sacrificing some bats or a pitcher
This is a good question. Short slates like this are tough and it can feel weird paying up for pitching at the expense of bats, especially when one of the games is at Coors. That being said, these two guys are in really bad situations. To me, it’s not worth it in a cash game.
This weather is a real shame. Arrieta + Cubs + Coors should have been a great cash game short slate. But the weather is so iffy that I can’t justify much in the way of buy-ins.
It’s for a small 30 man winner take all type of game that’s why I ask could work there potentially but I would really have to get it right I was thinking Nacasio since he’s priced like a hitter if he just not go negative and possibly leave me with 4-5 points that could help if I’m able to nail it on a few big bats or am I crazy?
In that type of structure winner-take-all then no it’s not crazy in the sense that you only looking for the top end outcome and nothing else. It’s a dice roll and there’s a case for doing it
Mike, it will be tough getting pitching out of Coors.
It isn’t crazy crazy because in a winner take all you need to have a few guys NOBODY else has and hope they come through. If I were to gamble on this, I would lean more to Chatwood. Just looking at meat of order for Pirates, Jaso is not a for power guy, Cuth is trouble, Freese remains unimpressive overall and Marte is not in the lineup. Close your eyes and throw the Hail Mary. Another way to get contrarian if you cant stomach pitching to Coors bats is to team stack Phillies vs Roark who may be chalky due to lack options.
If your’e a BVP fan then you are rostering Braun (1200 OPS in 12 PAs) and Aaron Hill (1100 OPS in 17 PAs) against Arrieta today. Have fun with that!
Ok thanks Doug I really appreciate it Nacasio it is (can’t believe I typed that) this will certainly be one of the more odd and uncomfortable lineups I’ve entered but here we go
Question about contest:
Nightly I play the 3$ moonshot and he 3$ single entry 113 player double up. My scores have been
152
168
69
163
99
148
Is it time for me to start playing some new contests? If so any suggestions?
With a diversified buy-in structure (i.e. what I outline here https://www.dailyfantasysportsrankings.com/2016/04/21/a-healthy-look-at-dfs-bankroll-management/)
then you are turning a pretty sick profit with those scores.
Click on that link Doug provided if you are allowing yourself $6 a day you really should only be putting $1 into a single entry gpp and the rest in cash games. Had you played triple ups figuring you would have won 4 nights and turned $6 into 70 give or take
So far from what I’m seeing for the early games, the game at Coors is at most risk of not being played. Then Washington looks pretty iffy and the other 2 look like they may have a chance to be ok
I’m almost completely off these early games
Looks like the pro tool isn’t filtering based on games correctly? Maybe I’m just using it wrong but when I filter out the night games those players still come up in the optimizer.
Brian, I am not experiencing a similar issue. Can you email me screenshots of what you’re seeing to doug@dailyfantasysportsrankings.com ?
Sorry by the way my last comment about contests were scores for draft kings
Yup. Understood my comment was based on that understanding.
Ok this is a stupid question and anyone could answer this but what is the difference between a gpp and cash game? I do understand the tournament but is a cash game 50/50 or something? Or a league?
They are stupid industry terms that were around before we started our site. We tried to get away from using them but they are like a virus. GPP just typically refers to big tournaments with top-end prize structures. Cash is 50/50
GPP- refers to tournaments with a “guaranteed prize pool”.
“Cash games” refer to contests that include 50/50, multipliers and head to head games.
While leagues are technically cash games, Sometimes they require tournament lineups carrying more risk to take them down.
I slightly think that as long as you can get a lineup that actually plays your odds might go up due to a lot of people possibly picking rain games? Maybe an ignorant thought, but it’s a thought
This kind of thinking is what us DFSers like to call game theory. lol. The safest game looks to be Athletics at Tigers. Many will be forced to pay for Arrieta and few Cubs bats, The Phillies Nationals game is pretty iffy too….so, that is far from an ignorant thought. Even small scores beat zeroes!
Thanks Doug.
Sorry if this is not the right forum for this but one more question for you. Should I make he jump to play the contest with higher entry fees? Would my scores be competitive in a 10$ tournament or double up or even a 25$ one?
Thanks in advance
Yes they would be. But I think you’d be better off spreading among lower buy-ins. $25 and even $10 will have higher cash lines in general
Optimal line up is showing montero at catcher. Ross is starting.
Yeah that’s fixed. Caught between updates.
Sorry, I was too impatient. Thanks Doug.
No you were right to point it out.
Hopefully we get the lineups for the Rockies game soon. I’m planning on doing 1 lineup from that game and would like to not have to wait until 10 to make my entry.
Cripes, It’s now snowing in Denver. Should fade that one altogether. I really hope the others will play through though. At latest glance those other 3 seem doable, unless any of you are in the host cities and can advise us otherwise.
Grosser than gross. I don’t mind the non-Coors optimals, but really would like to have that game be a lock. Alas, doesn’t look to be the case.
I know. Coors field and the Bucs have ripping the cover off the ball too. Sounded super good to me.
How does the OAK/ DET game look? My line up app says
Oak/DET 57%
Mil/chc 1%
Pit/Col 30%
Phi/was 6%
Should I remove all Pitt/Col players?
I faded that game completely Myself.
I faded it as well. Even if the weather stops and they play, conditions will be terrible. Currently its snowing, so I think it will get PPD.
Coors game postponed
There goes a buncha FD zeroes.
Dang it. I guess when I made my lineups I thought Chicago had submitted theirs. The optimizer had Tommy La Stella in. Oh well. Guess that’s what I get for not double checking before game time.
Whoops. Never mind. I’m silly.
Looks like Wieters is out tonight for the Orioles. Any suggestions at Catcher for the late slate?
Wellington Castillo is cheap and has power . That’s what I’m thinking
But he’s not locked in yet and not sure where he will bat in the order. 6 hr for a catcher is impressive so far.
I was actually thinking about him. He might be a good candidate.
Just saw he’s not in play today. Gotta look for a replacement now..
Hi,
Im trying to run the pro optimizer for the 2 latest MLB games tonight for the contests on Draftkings, but it will not create any line ups for the final 2 games.
Is there an issue with the optimizer?
Hey Al. I think you will need to Uncheck “Disallow Hitters vs. Pitchers” in the Hitters vs. Pitcher constraint on the left hand side. It’s basically set to that parameter but on short DK slates there are sometimes issues fielding a team with this constraint
It’s slim pickings at catcher for me. Molina??
Is what it is but I wish FanDuel existed back in the 60s.70s.80s, and 90s. Roark would still be in there. Managers today see anything near 100 pitches and the pitcher is done.
So what do you guys think about the white sox game…they gonna play?
Know this is baseball ,but the NBA lineup tool has marvin williams and jeff green listed as SF. On Fanduel they have moved both to PF . Can you make changes so we can get good results.
I’m seeing both listed as SF on FanDuel
Yes if you play thurs- fri games, but if you play friday only then they are listed as PF.
Buckholz, thanks for wasting my Baltimore stack. I appreciate that. Lol
Thank goodness for the basketball optimizer because the baseball optimizer has been WEEEAAAKKKKK all week! Especially at pitcher! Looking for the same strength here as in basketball
Lol, are you serious? Outside of Clay tonight (only on DK) system’s been nails with SP. Fernandez dealing, Arrieta, Roark on early slate, yesterday Harvey and Gio. Price and Cueto day before. FD lineups tonight crushing.
Love the comments. But this one is simply false.
Top 2 FD lineups today are sitting at 142 and 145 points and DK hanging on even with Clay.
Doug, you are right! Just checked my 7:05pm games and am hitting. Made that comment checking the late games doing weakly (STL bats to blame for that). Also, had like 4-5 lineups with Arrieta yesterday. Ran the optimizer like 10 mins before first pitch, still had Arrieta, game ended up cancelling. Lineup was strong besides getting 0 from my pitcher.
Phew. Just wanted to make sure the right info was getting out there. FD especially nails right now.
Doug, Side note, been doing fairly well with the “BETA” for hockey. Using your projections and lineup organizer to build solid teams I have built some money makers. Is there also an optimizer for that?
I know these optimizers are based on cash games but I am one of your customers that is a dreamer!! I play alot of GPPs (mostly basketball) and just switch a couple of players for punts and use your projections outside of the optimizer to pick higher floor players. P.S. I love the fact you guys “chat” in these comment sections, answer questions, and keep up with how your customers are doing!! And non customers for that matter since this portion is free.
Thanks yeah. Comments are the best thing that’s happened to the site I think. We are actively working on developing chat/forum features to enhance the discussion.
And yes, I believe we will have optimal NHL lineups for next season.
I can’t figure what is the best approach to stacking.. Today I did the Orioles and it worked well but it’s something new . I always only use the info in the website and choose players irrelevant to team or order or stacking.. Thoughts please . Thanks in advance ..
Luis, pay the fee. Use the optimizer!
I won a $20 ticket tonight. Barely won- only took it by half a point on DK. Thank you optimizer!