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Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

04/29/2016
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings- 4/29/16

Welcome to our new daily article breaking down some of the other pitching targets on this slate. We covered our system's top value plays in our daily picks article  and our updates articles but here we will look at other dudes to consider.

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Stacking in DFS MLB is such an important concept if you’re looking to take down a big tournament on FanDuel or DraftKings. It’s also a good way to diversify cash games because the variance in baseball can mean wild swings (ahem) in the scoring on a particular slate. The concept is easy. You want to pile players from one or two teams into your lineups because those guys compound scores by helping each other score runs when the going is good.

Stack Targets

Anaheim Angels vs. Colby Lewis (Rangers)
Park - Ballpark in Arlington
Don't be at all fooled by Colby Lewis' 3.38 ERA this season. He's walking close to four batters per nine and has an xFIP very close to 5.00. He's been running a little on smoke and mirrors getting particularly lucky with a 97.8% Strand Rate. For the uninitiated that means he's getting as lucky as humanly possible with runners on base. One simply cannot keep walking batters at his rate and then keep them stranded on base. This will regress and could get ugly quick. I love the Angels today coming on the cheaper side all thing considered and going in a fantastic hitter's park. It actually speaks a lot about Lewis that he has this kind of LOB% and still has an ERA around league average. I'm all over stacking Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Kole Calhoun to name a few.

 

Chicago White Sox vs. Mike Wright
Park -  Camden Yards
A great many of the games this weekend are being played in pitchers’ parks. This isn’t one of them. Camden Yards has as much power expectation as really any park in the league and last season was actually tied with Coors in producing lefty power. That’s an honorable distinction in the world of park factors and not something to be taken lightly. Mike Wright strikes out less than six batters per nine and has a career xFIP around 5.50. Those numbers are pretty brutal. The only real issue here is the White Sox aren’t exactly a prolific offense. They have some competent lefty bats in Adam Eaton and Melky Cabrera who are coming on the cheaper side of things. There’s also Jimmy Rollins hitting in the two hole playing SS where it’s always tough to find good value. Jose Abreu is in the mix as well considering he’s hit righty pitching well enough for his career. These are all value stacks considering the park and matchup.

 

Baltimore Orioles vs. Carlos Rodon (White Sox)
Park - Camden Yards
You never really know what you’re going to get out of Carlos Rodon which makes him a tricky guy to stack against. Sure he can go 6+ innings striking out a batter an inning and firing on all cylinders. Or you can get the line like the one he had against the Angels two starts ago where he couldn’t get to the second out of the first inning before getting yanked. Now that’s an extreme case, but it speaks to some of his intermittent command issues. I don’t mind taking some flyers on the Orioles’ righty bats (I think they’ll go 8-9 RH hitters in this one) but I wouldn’t throw them in cash games because there is a floor if Rodon is dealing.

 

Strongly consider the Cleveland Indians against Adam Morgan today.

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11 Visitor Comments

  1. This is a really helpful article as I have found MLB FD a real challenge after a ton of success season-long in NBA. I can usually cash maybe 60% of the time using the optimizer with some tweaks here and there, but maybe $5 on a $2, and I’ll run out 20 lineups — but other than opening weekend where I hit a big one, I haven’t sniffed triple digit wins yet. This should help!

  2. Probably sticking with Machado.. But debating paying up for Arenado against a lefty that’s a little worse than Rodon. Yes been a little more consistent is the only reason

    • I made the mistake of looking Machado’s game log yesterday so I faded him. Whoops

  3. Anybody scared of the weather in Texas?

    • I am and am considering taking that game out of the mix when running lineups. Which really would suck

  4. Aren’t diamond backs facing righty chatwood today?

    • Eep. You are right. Some of this is copy from an article I had put out for FantasyPros earlier in the week. Laziness on my part pure and simple as I transferred two of the teams to this piece. I removed (though you’ll see it tomorrow lol)

  5. So much for the Mets. Weather looks like a no go

  6. Thoughts on tex/laa being canceled?

  7. It doesn’t look good in Tex are my thoughts. Trout is outta my lineups.

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